If Rondo doesn't improve his jumper when he's back...

[Enzzo]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season.

Are you just countering my obscene pessimism with obscene optimism... or do you genuinely expect this team to essentially not skip a beat without KG and Pierce? 

I would love 75% FT from him

[Celtics18]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season.

Are you just countering my obscene pessimism with obscene optimism... or do you genuinely expect this team to essentially not skip a beat without KG and Pierce?

My guess is he misses the first 30 games of the season and comes back in January on limited minutes.  Has some setbacks.  Has a couple nagging injuries as the season progresses.  Plays a total of 36 lackluster games.

Those are my expectations.  I expect them to skip some beats, sure, but I also expect them to add some new, funky and completely different beats.

I think it will be an interesting season. 

[LarBrd33]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season.

Are you just countering my obscene pessimism with obscene optimism... or do you genuinely expect this team to essentially not skip a beat without KG and Pierce?

My guess is he misses the first 30 games of the season and comes back in January on limited minutes.  Has some setbacks.  Has a couple nagging injuries as the season progresses.  Plays a total of 36 lackluster games.

Those are my expectations.  I expect them to skip some beats, sure, but I also expect them to add some new, funky and completely different beats.

I think it will be an interesting season.

I don't think they have enough talent to compete.  I'd love to be proven wrong, but this looks like a lotto squad for sure.

[Celtics18]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season.

Are you just countering my obscene pessimism with obscene optimism... or do you genuinely expect this team to essentially not skip a beat without KG and Pierce?

My guess is he misses the first 30 games of the season and comes back in January on limited minutes.  Has some setbacks.  Has a couple nagging injuries as the season progresses.  Plays a total of 36 lackluster games.

Those are my expectations.  I expect them to skip some beats, sure, but I also expect them to add some new, funky and completely different beats.

I think it will be an interesting season.

I don't think they have enough talent to compete.  I'd love to be proven wrong, but this looks like a lotto squad for sure.

If our super star point guard all of a sudden turns into Kirk Hinrich or Beno Udrih, you're probably right. 

[Tr1boy]

Rondo working on his jumper after practice

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbVGBWteZYk

Rondo didn’t stop after the first practice when his teammates did. He remained on the floor to work on one-dribble pull-ups, shooting off the catch, shooting with a hand in his face, an array of drills designed to improve his accuracy from outside.

Celtics employees have been impressed by Rondo’s work ethic during his recovery, saying he’s begun to work with Adams every day. Adams has been given credit for helping Derrick Rose’s jumper, so he’s used to assisting explosive point guards who need to improve their form. According to one team employee, Adams works on plenty of technical stuff with Rondo.

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2013/10/rajon_rondo_boston_celtics_ass.html

Something about Rondo's jump shot is awkward. So much going on, and imo for nothing. Lots of arm movement, doesn't got straight up and not smooth at all.   \

[DarkAzcura]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season.

Are you just countering my obscene pessimism with obscene optimism... or do you genuinely expect this team to essentially not skip a beat without KG and Pierce?

My guess is he misses the first 30 games of the season and comes back in January on limited minutes.  Has some setbacks.  Has a couple nagging injuries as the season progresses.  Plays a total of 36 lackluster games.

It's not really about not skipping a beat. I honestly have no idea how this team will do this year, but I can comment on last year. Last year's team was a mess from coaching standpoint (and KG/Pierce). I'm not trying to throw 100% blame on the guys, but last year's team was not a 41 win team (or the slightly below .500 ball they played with Rondo). They were a 50+ win team, talent wise. Doc had no idea what he was doing, imo, and it's not because he is a bad coach or anything. It just felt like he was living in the past with some of his offensive schemes and rotations. I just constantly felt like he was trying to fit squares into circles with our new guys last year..living in his memories if that makes any sense. A change of scenery will do really well for him as long as he doesn't try to change the Clippers into the Celtics.

Also, Doc has always had trouble adjusting, and the one thing he completely failed at was adjusting for KG and Pierce's age. He basically had them playing the same roles as they were in 2008, and that really led to our demise. They needed to take more of a step back last season than they did.

I think this year's Celtics team CAN win ~40 games, but that doesn't mean Pierce and Garnett have all of a sudden become non-impact players. I think this team's maximum potential is a bit over 40 games while last year's team was probably low-mid 50's. It just didn't work out that way for a variety of reasons.

[LarBrd33]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season.

Are you just countering my obscene pessimism with obscene optimism... or do you genuinely expect this team to essentially not skip a beat without KG and Pierce?

My guess is he misses the first 30 games of the season and comes back in January on limited minutes.  Has some setbacks.  Has a couple nagging injuries as the season progresses.  Plays a total of 36 lackluster games.

It's not really about not skipping a beat. I honestly have no idea how this team will do this year, but I can comment on last year. Last year's team was a mess from coaching standpoint (and KG/Pierce). I'm not trying to throw 100% blame on the guys, but last year's team was not a 41 win team (or the slightly below .500 ball they played with Rondo). They were a 50+ win team, talent wise. Doc had no idea what he was doing, imo, and it's not because he is a bad coach or anything. It just felt like he was living in the past with some of his offensive schemes and rotations. I just constantly felt like he was trying to fit squares into circles with our new guys last year..living in his memories if that makes any sense. A change of scenery will do really well for him as long as he doesn't try to change the Clippers into the Celtics.

Also, Doc has always had trouble adjusting, and the one thing he completely failed at was adjusting for KG and Pierce's age. He basically had them playing the same roles as they were in 2008, and that really led to our demise. They needed to take more of a step back last season than they did.

I think this year's Celtics team CAN win ~40 games, but that doesn't mean Pierce and Garnett have all of a sudden become non-impact players. I think this team's maximum potential is a bit over 40 games while last year's team was probably low-mid 50's. It just didn't work out that way for a variety of reasons.

I hear what you're sayin... but the team this year with or without Rondo is pretty devoid of talent.   On paper, this team is embarrassingly bad offensively and defensively.  If they win 30, I'll be pretty surprised.

[D.o.s.]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season.

Are you just countering my obscene pessimism with obscene optimism... or do you genuinely expect this team to essentially not skip a beat without KG and Pierce?

My guess is he misses the first 30 games of the season and comes back in January on limited minutes.  Has some setbacks.  Has a couple nagging injuries as the season progresses.  Plays a total of 36 lackluster games.

It's not really about not skipping a beat. I honestly have no idea how this team will do this year, but I can comment on last year. Last year's team was a mess from coaching standpoint (and KG/Pierce). I'm not trying to throw 100% blame on the guys, but last year's team was not a 41 win team (or the slightly below .500 ball they played with Rondo). They were a 50+ win team, talent wise. Doc had no idea what he was doing, imo, and it's not because he is a bad coach or anything. It just felt like he was living in the past with some of his offensive schemes and rotations. I just constantly felt like he was trying to fit squares into circles with our new guys last year..living in his memories if that makes any sense. A change of scenery will do really well for him as long as he doesn't try to change the Clippers into the Celtics.

Also, Doc has always had trouble adjusting, and the one thing he completely failed at was adjusting for KG and Pierce's age. He basically had them playing the same roles as they were in 2008, and that really led to our demise. They needed to take more of a step back last season than they did.

I think this year's Celtics team CAN win ~40 games, but that doesn't mean Pierce and Garnett have all of a sudden become non-impact players. I think this team's maximum potential is a bit over 40 games while last year's team was probably low-mid 50's. It just didn't work out that way for a variety of reasons.

To piggyback on this, I think Doc's system didn't play to the strengths or mesh with most of our newly arrived bench guys, especially with Jason Terry.  It seemed to me that there was an awful lot of asymmetry between the production from the players we retained and the guys who were new last year.

Our nominal starting five--Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, Bass, KG, and rotation: Green, Terry, Lee, Sullinger, Should've probably won a few more games than they did.


I'm going to disagree that there's a 40 win team here, though. With Rondo out, I'm sticking with 26.

[RockinRyA]

his jumper isnt really a problem now.. His freethrow shooting is.

[guava_wrench]

Also, in addition to the fact that Rondo's numbers have been good recently, there's this interesting article discussing how players improve their jumpers on average after ACL surgery:

To find out, the Journal looked at 34 NBA players who have torn an ACL since 2003. To factor out the effects of age, we limited the sample to the 20 players who were 26 years or younger at the time of the injury. Since coming back, those players have shot 42% from 16 to 23 feet—up from 38% before their injuries, a fairly significant improvement.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323384604578326451812887938.html

Edit: Actually, I just read that quote more carefully and I'm now a little suspicious of the study's findings. They claim to "factor out the effects of age" but they actually have just factored out the *negative* effects of getting older. If younger guys improve on average, then this would represent normal progression regardless of the surgery. You'd want to compare the improvement of ACL-repaired players to the improvement of other players of similar ages player the same positions.

Nonetheless it's a useful starting point for the analysis.

Good point. The article tries to account for that but fails:

That statistic looks even more persuasive when you consider that for players in that age range who have spent at least five years in the NBA and did not sustain an ACL injury—midrange shooting actually declined to 39% in their most recent season from 40% when they were rookies, according to Stats LLC.

It makes no sense to compare rookie season to most recent season for the control group. It gives the impression that they are cherry picking seasons that have the pattern that they want. They should have compared the most recent season to previous seasons, skipping the immediate season to mirror the lost season of those recovering from injury.

This is an example of people who like sports stats, but lack an understanding of how to do a proper study.

[guava_wrench]

The 29 opposing coaches certainly don't seem to believe that Rondo's shot has improved.  His shooting percentage is farce.  I often quote that Ben Wallace had a very high shooting percentage but he is one of the worst shooters in the history of the game.  Rondo is not as bad as Wallace but his statistical shooting percentage is no less misleading.

You will know when Rondo's shot has improved when opposing teams start covering him.

Why would you mention Ben Wallace's shooting percentage from under the rim when people have already listed Rondo's shooting percentage on midrange jump shots?

Don't discount stats with generalizations without acknowledging the stats mentioned.

[ManUp]

Only the casual fan is still complaining about Rondo's mid range jumper. Anyone who has been paying attention should be able to see his jumper has been much improved for a couple of seasons now. However, his free-throw shooting and 3pt shooting still leave much to be desired. The fact that everyone still loves to point to this part of his game as a major weakness just proves how long first impressions last.

[Enzzo]

Only the casual fan is still complaining about Rondo's mid range jumper. Anyone who has been paying attention should be able to see his jumper has been much improved for a couple of seasons now. However, his free-throw shooting and 3pt shooting still leave much to be desired. The fact that everyone still loves to point to this part of his game as a major weakness just proves how long first impressions last.

Completely agree, I really hope he spent his time working on his FT's. If he could get that % up it would be have a huge impact.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

If Rondo had Brandon Bass's FT% who would be crazy enough to lay a finger on him in the paint? A fan can dream.