If Rondo doesn't improve his jumper when he's back...

[Vermont Green]

The 29 opposing coaches certainly don't seem to believe that Rondo's shot has improved.  His shooting percentage is farce.  I often quote that Ben Wallace had a very high shooting percentage but he is one of the worst shooters in the history of the game.  Rondo is not as bad as Wallace but his statistical shooting percentage is no less misleading.

You will know when Rondo's shot has improved when opposing teams start covering him.

[WeMadeIt17]

Was reading that he is working with Ron Adams early in camp so far. Adams is known for improving Derricks Roses' shot in Chi town. Hopefully Rondo keeps working on that and he'll be fine. He improved his jumped last season, so i see it continuing to get better. On another note. You can tell Rondo has been in the gym hard. He is looking bigger and i cant wait to see him ready to play again.

[Celtics18]

The 29 opposing coaches certainly don't seem to believe that Rondo's shot has improved.  His shooting percentage is farce.  I often quote that Ben Wallace had a very high shooting percentage but he is one of the worst shooters in the history of the game.  Rondo is not as bad as Wallace but his statistical shooting percentage is no less misleading.

You will know when Rondo's shot has improved when opposing teams start covering him.

The shooting percentage being quoted for Rondo is his percentage from 16 to 23 feet.  It is not his overall field goal percentage.  Ben Wallace didn't take jumpers from that range.  The comparison completely misses the mark. 

Here is a link to the site that is being referenced:

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=20&mins=30

[D.o.s.]

The 29 opposing coaches certainly don't seem to believe that Rondo's shot has improved.  His shooting percentage is farce.  I often quote that Ben Wallace had a very high shooting percentage but he is one of the worst shooters in the history of the game.  Rondo is not as bad as Wallace but his statistical shooting percentage is no less misleading.

You will know when Rondo's shot has improved when opposing teams start covering him.

That's open to too many additional factors on the court. A couple years ago, if you were checking Rondo, you'd definitely give him some space--every team is going to take a Rondo jump shot over a Ray Allen jump shot, a Paul Pierce jumper, or a KG elbow shot. It's the least worst option, so you're going to sag off.

I don't have the tape on hand, but I'd suspect that they played a lot closer to him last season, while still honoring his passing, because a Rajon Rondo jump shot  has less damaging effects than a Rajon Rondo assist.

Now, we saw this happen a few times; Doc crafting plays to get Rondo an open elbow jumper, which, again, is always going to be open for him, since the defenders don't want him getting the rest of the team engaged.

[BballTim]

The 29 opposing coaches certainly don't seem to believe that Rondo's shot has improved.  His shooting percentage is farce.  I often quote that Ben Wallace had a very high shooting percentage but he is one of the worst shooters in the history of the game.  Rondo is not as bad as Wallace but his statistical shooting percentage is no less misleading.

  Ben Wallace didn't have a very high shooting percentage. He hit about 47% of his shots over his career. But Ben was a truly terrible shooter, he only had 1 season in his career where he hit more than 30% of his shots from 3 or more feet from the basket. The reason Ben's shooting percentage is misleading in terms of how well he shot was because more than 80% of his made baskets were from 3 feet or closer.

  This isn't at all the same as with Rondo. People don't say Rondo's a decent shooter because he makes most of his layups. They talk about how well he shoots his jump shots.

You will know when Rondo's shot has improved when opposing teams start covering him.

  Teams cover Rondo much more closely than they did when he was younger. Check out old and recent youtube clips if you want to see it for yourself. It's time to update those 2010 scouting reports.

[Vox_Populi]

Teams cover Rondo much more closely than they did when he was younger. Check out old and recent youtube clips if you want to see it for yourself. It's time to update those 2010 scouting reports.

I agree. I was curious so last night I watched every Rondo 12-13 season game highlight I could find. I watched 21. In those 21 games, Rondo made 58 jump shots. Of the 58, only 28 were taken under no pressure at all. The other 30 were contested,  some were slightly late contests (almost like an afterthought) but it's not like they were playing 5-10 feet off him. In those 21 games, he also took 7 threes, all of which were desperation, and only 3 of the 7 was he left completely open.

These games obviously represent a small sample size and if anyone wants to recount, they can, but I do think it puts the "Rondo's FG% is skewed" belief into some perspective.

[Vermont Green]

Teams started sagging off Rondo after the Lakers did it in the finals, I think it was the 2010 finals that we lost.  After that, it slowly progressed and more teams started doing it until all teams were doing it.

Part of the reason that teams can get away with that is that Rondo has a slow release.  Someone above noted that teams kind of contested as an after thought.  The reason you can contest as an after thought is the slow release.

Rondo is a good player but he needs to work on his shot.  It is a major weakness (perhaps his only one).  If he improves this aspect, the sky is the limit for him.  If he doesn't, he will continue to be a good player with an exploitable weakness.

[Roy H.]

I'm not sure that I agree with the premise of the thread.  A lot of times there seems to be this theory that "since he can't run or do other basketball activities, he should have time to do nothing but shoot".

I don't really buy that.  He's got time to practice his shot, but not in game-type situations.  I fully expect Rondo to be rusty when he gets back, and if he is, I'm not going to panic.

[manl_lui]

The 29 opposing coaches certainly don't seem to believe that Rondo's shot has improved.  His shooting percentage is farce.  I often quote that Ben Wallace had a very high shooting percentage but he is one of the worst shooters in the history of the game.  Rondo is not as bad as Wallace but his statistical shooting percentage is no less misleading.

  Ben Wallace didn't have a very high shooting percentage. He hit about 47% of his shots over his career. But Ben was a truly terrible shooter, he only had 1 season in his career where he hit more than 30% of his shots from 3 or more feet from the basket. The reason Ben's shooting percentage is misleading in terms of how well he shot was because more than 80% of his made baskets were from 3 feet or closer.

  This isn't at all the same as with Rondo. People don't say Rondo's a decent shooter because he makes most of his layups. They talk about how well he shoots his jump shots.

You will know when Rondo's shot has improved when opposing teams start covering him.

  Teams cover Rondo much more closely than they did when he was younger. Check out old and recent youtube clips if you want to see it for yourself. It's time to update those 2010 scouting reports.

Ben Wallace doesn't shoot 3s  You talking about Rasheed?

I know Rondo will keep improving his jumpshot from the year before.

[BballTim]

Teams started sagging off Rondo after the Lakers did it in the finals, I think it was the 2010 finals that we lost.  After that, it slowly progressed and more teams started doing it until all teams were doing it.

Part of the reason that teams can get away with that is that Rondo has a slow release.  Someone above noted that teams kind of contested as an after thought.  The reason you can contest as an after thought is the slow release.

Rondo is a good player but he needs to work on his shot.  It is a major weakness (perhaps his only one).  If he improves this aspect, the sky is the limit for him.  If he doesn't, he will continue to be a good player with an exploitable weakness.

  Teams were sagging off of Rondo before the 2010 finals much more than they have been since. If you're looking for a more extreme example of it, check the 2009 Orlando series. It's not like the Lakers came up with the strategy. It's also not as exploitable as people think because if teams back off of Rondo too much he just picks them apart with his passing.

  Teams are always going to give Rondo some space when he has the ball because they're so concerned about his passing and dribble penetration. The problem for those teams is that even when they give Rondo a little space they're *still* unable to stop his penetration or his passing.

[fantankerous]

The 29 opposing coaches certainly don't seem to believe that Rondo's shot has improved.  His shooting percentage is farce.  I often quote that Ben Wallace had a very high shooting percentage but he is one of the worst shooters in the history of the game.  Rondo is not as bad as Wallace but his statistical shooting percentage is no less misleading.

  Ben Wallace didn't have a very high shooting percentage. He hit about 47% of his shots over his career. But Ben was a truly terrible shooter, he only had 1 season in his career where he hit more than 30% of his shots from 3 or more feet from the basket. The reason Ben's shooting percentage is misleading in terms of how well he shot was because more than 80% of his made baskets were from 3 feet or closer.

  This isn't at all the same as with Rondo. People don't say Rondo's a decent shooter because he makes most of his layups. They talk about how well he shoots his jump shots.

You will know when Rondo's shot has improved when opposing teams start covering him.

  Teams cover Rondo much more closely than they did when he was younger. Check out old and recent youtube clips if you want to see it for yourself. It's time to update those 2010 scouting reports.

Ben Wallace doesn't shoot 3s  You talking about Rasheed?

I know Rondo will keep improving his jumpshot from the year before.

I think you need to reread BballTim's post.

I agree that Rondo has substantially improved his jumper over the last few seasons.  The next step is changing how he utilizes his improved jumper from a reluctant option to an aggressive weapon.

As others have said, the area Rondo needs to improve is free throw shooting.  If he could shoot 70% from the line, I'd be happy.

[LarBrd33]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.   

[wdleehi]

I expect the % to drop this season. 


Not because I think he is going to regress on his shooting but because I expect teams to pay more attention to him and live with the other guys trying to hit shots.






I rather he shoot a respectable % that forces defenses to stay closer to him then a higher % because team sag off.






But for now, I would just be happy to see him back on the court getting back up to Rondo speed.

[Celtics18]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season. 

[LarBrd33]

My prediction for rondo this season:  36 games... 27 minutes per game.  8.6 points, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 42% shooting.   He'll struggle.  The team will suck.   Wiggins or bust.

Rondo will be better in the contract year after he's closer to 100%, but then the rumors about him bolting from Boston will be deafening... He'll be approaching 30 on a lotto-bound team.  We will probably take pennies on the dollar just to get something for him at the deadline.

Here's mine:

60 games.  36 MPG, 14 PPG, 5 RPG, 12 APG, 1.8 Stls, 50% shooting, 75% FTs.  The team will finish with a .500 record, good for the seventh seed in the playoffs. 

Much to the chagrin of some and the delight of others, Rondo will sign a contract extension with the Celtics that will take him through the 2019 season. 

The Celtics will hang banner eighteen after the 2016 season and number nineteen after the 2017 season.

Are you just countering my obscene pessimism with obscene optimism... or do you genuinely expect this team to essentially not skip a beat without KG and Pierce?

My guess is he misses the first 30 games of the season and comes back in January on limited minutes.  Has some setbacks.  Has a couple nagging injuries as the season progresses.  Plays a total of 36 lackluster games.