Webber in the Hall of Fame?

[Donoghus]

Interesting to note, Carter's HOF probability is .7678 which ranks 80th (Webber is 83rd at .7459) while Manu ranks 159 at .1331.

Of course, the author's model doesn't seem to incorporate anything that occurred outside the NBA (unless you want to consider height).

EDIT:  Rasheed is #209 at .0472

[StartOrien]

I think I drafted Webber in the first round of one of our Historical Drafts. Absolutely loved the guy for what he could do on the court, and was entranced by his swagger.

But there's just no way the guys a hall of famer. A hand full of solid years where he's the third best power forward in the league? A guy who never seemed to elevate his game when the team needed it most? No way. If you're going to do it on small sample sizes Penny Hardaway's a more deserving candidate.

[Boris Badenov]

I distrust that sort of train of thought Boris, because people have said the same thing about KG on this board even during the 2007-2008 title run.

This despite us running our offense through KG in the post when it wasn't Pierce on the elbow, KG being our leading scorer in the playoffs, and our leading scorer in the fourth quarter in the playoffs.

I'm betting you'd find the same thing going on in Sacramento if you ran that tape. I don't recall the offense being run through Divac, but instead Webber. Once a dude is declared "not the guy" people make their memories match the facts they "know".

I think there is something to the criticism of Webber not being aggressive enough for his own individual offense, but I think its wildly overblown.

I was skeptical enough of my own memories that I tried to find the data, but couldn't.

But I am 100% certain that the doubts I had, along with many other fans, were in place during that time, and not developed after the fact.

This Grantland article discusses the evidence in some detail. There's a solid factual basis for the view that he was a subpar playoff performer. There's evidence of success too, but it's true at a minimum that Webber is not one of those guys like Rondo who consistently elevated his game when it counted.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9682949/chris-webber-hall-fame-case

[Fafnir]

Boris the vast majority of players decline performance wise in the playoffs.

Jordan*
Pierce
Kobe
KG
etc.

All declined in the playoffs. Rondo is a rare bird.

*Jordan doesn't show as much of a decline as others because he played those two terrible (by his standards) seasons in Washington which compromised of 12% of his regular season minutes. Those drag down his "overall" numbers quite a bit actually and he didn't make the playoffs those years

As for the doubts, the doubts about KG were in place at the time too. They were just as wrong. Real time narrative building also happens, no matter the facts. That offense was built around Webber not Divac.

[Fafnir]

Of course now looking at it Rondo didn't really increase his performance statistically in the playoffs either. Looks like he's about the same instead of declining overall. His better TOs and rebounds are offset by worse efficiency shooting (teams playing off and forcing jumpers when they've prepped for him is my shoot from the hip guess)

[LB3533]

Boris the vast majority of players decline performance wise in the playoffs.

Jordan*
Pierce
Kobe
KG
etc.

All declined in the playoffs. Rondo is a rare bird.

*Jordan doesn't show as much of a decline as others because he played those two terrible (by his standards) seasons in Washington which compromised of 12% of his regular season minutes. Those drag down his "overall" numbers quite a bit actually and he didn't make the playoffs those years

As for the doubts, the doubts about KG were in place at the time too. They were just as wrong. Real time narrative building also happens, no matter the facts. That offense was built around Webber not Divac.

Magic, Bird, Lebron each had similar playoff vs regular season statistical production. That means each of these superstar players didn't produce any better nor worse than they did in the regular season.

I think for most players, production is most likely to fall in the playoffs so I agree.

If you can put up the same production against the supposedly better teams in the league in a series of games where defensive strategies and gameplans can focus on stopping you more...well I think you are doing your job as best as you can.

I think if we were to find a player who significantly increases his production in the playoffs it would have to come from a role player maybe.

[LB3533]

I found, Dirk, Hakeem and Allen Iverson each increased their production in the playoffs by a small non-huge margin.

[BballTim]

Of course now looking at it Rondo didn't really increase his performance statistically in the playoffs either. Looks like he's about the same instead of declining overall. His better TOs and rebounds are offset by worse efficiency shooting (teams playing off and forcing jumpers when they've prepped for him is my shoot from the hip guess)

  Rondo's per36 scoring is about 1.5 points higher in the playoffs than the regular season. That's actually an unusually large increase for players that have been in a decent amount of playoff games. You're more likely than not to see lower production, which is what you'd expect considering that defense is much better in the playoffs.

[Boris Badenov]

Boris the vast majority of players decline performance wise in the playoffs.

Jordan*
Pierce
Kobe
KG
etc.

All declined in the playoffs. Rondo is a rare bird.

*Jordan doesn't show as much of a decline as others because he played those two terrible (by his standards) seasons in Washington which compromised of 12% of his regular season minutes. Those drag down his "overall" numbers quite a bit actually and he didn't make the playoffs those years

As for the doubts, the doubts about KG were in place at the time too. They were just as wrong. Real time narrative building also happens, no matter the facts. That offense was built around Webber not Divac.

I wasn't talking so much about overall stats - like others have said there are reasons to underweight a pure statistical comparison.

But in my opinion Webber never dominated a key playoff series the way so many other greats have. That's what I was referring to with Rondo. Bird did it. So did Jordan, Hakeem, Magic etc...

[barefacedmonk]

If it was upto me, I'd vote for him just because of this: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qoSXxWHV7Q

[Eja117]

I can't figure out to give him points for dating Tyra Banks or take them away for not marrying her

[JSD]

Weber gets in because it's the Basketball hall of fame. Best player on and best pro from a team that made consecutive finals game appearances.

I'm not sure how much weight two NCAA championship game appearances that were later stricken from the record books will play in his candidacy.  IMO, not that much.

[nickagneta]

If people argue that Webber should have a title because the refs handed that conference Finals series to LA so that should enhance his HOF chances, then I think it fair to also mention his actions handed over an NCAA championship to North Carolina because he choked mentally at the end of a championship game.

Either way, the man won nothing.

I also think injuries curtailed what would have been a lot of years with much better numbers making his career numbers much lower and costing him "sure fire HOF status"

All that said, I don't think he deserves to get in but because the HOF of basketball isn't nearly as selective as the other HOF's of other sports, he gets in. Eventually.

[Moranis]

Webber had 6 seasons of at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists.  3 more of at least 20, 9 and 3.4.  A bunch of other really good statistical seasons.  All of this while being fairly consistently injured.  He took a number of pretty sub par teams to the playoffs.  He is basically Kevin Garnett without the trade to Boston or a better version of Chris Bosh without Miami. 

He is also a better player than a number of players in the HOF and there aren't that many that are eligible that aren't in that are better than him (I can't actually think of one).  I think he probably gets in someday, but not on the first ballot, especially if his time at Michigan is counted.

[CelticG1]

Webber is somewhat close to KG if KG retired after minnesota