2013 CB Draft: Western Semi Finals: Oklahoma City(2) vs Dallas(3)

[Roy H.]

Pushing pace also means that Al Jefferson probably won't be doing much beyond outlet passing...

?

I'm genuinely confused by this statement.  Plenty of teams push the pace, but don't do so 100% of the time.  You're always going to need half court scorers; this might be the first time I've ever seen a team punished for having a great post player because he's not a finisher on the break.

The '86 Celtics played at a much faster pace than even the quickest teams now.  That doesn't mean that Robert Parish and Kevin McHale didn't see plenty of touches in their offense, despite them not scoring a lot on the break.

Al Jefferson is slow. If Nash and company are going to push the pace, Al won't be participating much in the transition offense.

I'm having an increasingly hard time believing that Al can match Dwight Howard's scoring in this series. There's now more pressure for Al to do so with fewer touches in the half-court offense.

Again, I'm confused.  If playing at a faster pace leads to increased opportunities for Smith, Deng, and Gordon, and frees up Nash to do what he does best, I'm not sure what it matters if Big Al is outscoring Howard.

The important thing is, Big Al limits Howard's offense.  15.8 points per game, or whatever it is, isn't going to win you this series.

[dark_lord]

This one was so hard for me to decide, but i ended up going with OKC

[Lucky17]

Pushing pace also means that Al Jefferson probably won't be doing much beyond outlet passing...

?

I'm genuinely confused by this statement.  Plenty of teams push the pace, but don't do so 100% of the time.  You're always going to need half court scorers; this might be the first time I've ever seen a team punished for having a great post player because he's not a finisher on the break.

The '86 Celtics played at a much faster pace than even the quickest teams now.  That doesn't mean that Robert Parish and Kevin McHale didn't see plenty of touches in their offense, despite them not scoring a lot on the break.

Al Jefferson is slow. If Nash and company are going to push the pace, Al won't be participating much in the transition offense.

I'm having an increasingly hard time believing that Al can match Dwight Howard's scoring in this series. There's now more pressure for Al to do so with fewer touches in the half-court offense.

Again, I'm confused.  If playing at a faster pace leads to increased opportunities for Smith, Deng, and Gordon, and frees up Nash to do what he does best, I'm not sure what it matters if Big Al is outscoring Howard.

The important thing is, Big Al limits Howard's offense.  15.8 points per game, or whatever it is, isn't going to win you this series.

Well, now I'm confused. You're still assuming Dallas can somehow dictate pace, when their only rebounding advantage in the starting lineup is at SF.

I don't see how any "increased pace" is going to translate into a significant increase in scoring opportunities for Smith, Deng, and Gordon compared to their combined shot attempts for last season (45 FGA per game).

[Roy H.]

I don't see how any "increased pace" is going to translate into a significant increase in scoring opportunities for Smith, Deng, and Gordon compared to their combined shot attempts for last season (45 FGA per game).

I'm not sure if anybody said it would? 

However, an increased pace leads to easier baskets.  Dallas has a very good rebounding center, three excellent runners and finishers on the break, and an elite point guard directing the offense. 

That doesn't mean Dallas should exclusively run the break, but to suggest that a team with Nash, Gordon, Deng, Smith, and Big Al couldn't run a fast pace just seems odd.

Well, now I'm confused. You're still assuming Dallas can somehow dictate pace, when their only rebounding advantage in the starting lineup is at ...

I agree, you're confused.  In the "real" NBA, Denver ranked 2nd in pace.  They ranked 27th in defensive rebounding percentage.  Pushing the pace isn't dependent upon outrebounding your opponent.

[Lucky17]

I agree, you're confused.  In the "real" NBA, Denver ranked 2nd in pace.  They ranked 27th in defensive rebounding percentage.  Pushing the pace isn't dependent upon outrebounding your opponent.

That's truly amazing. So, how did Denver manage to dictate pace? Turn the other team over? Jack up shots early in the shot clock?

Or, was it their superior offensive rebounding (#1 in the league) that led to more shot attempts?

[Lucky17]

Back later tonight to try to answer any last-minute questions anyone might have--assuming anyone is still undecided after the 10 pages of back and forth between Fitz/Roy and me.

[Roy H.]

I agree, you're confused.  In the "real" NBA, Denver ranked 2nd in pace.  They ranked 27th in defensive rebounding percentage.  Pushing the pace isn't dependent upon outrebounding your opponent.

That's truly amazing. So, how did Denver manage to dictate pace? Turn the other team over? Jack up shots early in the shot clock?

Or, was it their superior offensive rebounding (#1 in the league) that led to more shot attempts?

No, you're confused.

Take the Bucks.  3rd in pace.  28th in DRB%.  Close to league average in ORB%.

Pace isn't dependent on rebounding.  Poor rebounding teams are still going to get a lot of transition opportunities.  Dallas isn't a poor rebounding team by any stretch, but even teams that are genuinely bad at defensive rebounding (Denver, Milwaukee) get out and run.

[StartOrien]

Now I'm confused, why can't Derek Rose win this series himself? I mean, he doesn't have to, but against a defense that trots out Nash and Al Jefferson, he certainly could.

[Roy H.]

Now I'm confused, why can't Derek Rose win this series himself? I mean, he doesn't have to, but against a defense that trots out Nash and Al Jefferson, he certainly could.

I don't expect you to vote against your co-commissioner, but the answer is "Because OKC is starting three below average players, who are matched up against three guys with all-star talent".

[StartOrien]

Now I'm confused, why can't Derek Rose win this series himself? I mean, he doesn't have to, but against a defense that trots out Nash and Al Jefferson, he certainly could.

I don't expect you to vote against your co-commissioner, but the answer is "Because OKC is starting three below average players, who are matched up against three guys with all-star talent".

To be clear I'm not voting.

But he has Derek Rose and Dwight Howard and their matchups are Steve Nash and Al Jefferson.

[Roy H.]

Now I'm confused, why can't Derek Rose win this series himself? I mean, he doesn't have to, but against a defense that trots out Nash and Al Jefferson, he certainly could.

I don't expect you to vote against your co-commissioner, but the answer is "Because OKC is starting three below average players, who are matched up against three guys with all-star talent".

To be clear I'm not voting.

But he has Derek Rose and Dwight Howard and their matchups are Steve Nash and Al Jefferson.

I'm not sure if you've read the thread, but Big Al has played Howard evenly over their careers, both overall and recently.

And fitz has Josh Smith, Luol Deng, and Eric Gordon matched up against three pretty poor players.

OKC definitely has the weakest wings of any playoff team in this exercise.  Chase Budinger and Iman Shumpert?  With Taj Gibson as a third starter? 

In terms of historic production:

Big Al = Howard
Smith > Gibson
Deng > Budinger
Gordon > Shumpert
Nash < Rose

Three alligators and an equals sign wins.

[StartOrien]

I read the thread, but I mean at the same time, c'mon: it's dwight howard vs. al jefferson

What's more likely, Al Jefferson isn't actually better than Dwight Howard or that Dwight Howard didn't exactly 'wake up' for a couple games in Utah/Minnesota.

One guy was the best player on a team that made the finals, and one hasn't been able to help a team win.

[Roy H.]

I read the thread, but I mean at the same time, c'mon: it's dwight howard vs. al jefferson

What's more likely, Al Jefferson isn't actually better than Dwight Howard or that Dwight Howard didn't exactly 'wake up' for a couple games in Utah/Minnesota.

One guy was the best player on a team that made the finals, and one hasn't been able to help a team win.

Dwight Howard is obviously a better player overall.  I think 18 games is a significant enough sample size to show that Big Al has limited Howard, though.

I mean, why look at statistics or head to head matchups at all?  Why even make these arguments?  Just vote for the teams with Lebron, Durant, and Howard, no matter how poor their teammates.  (This seems to be the strategy adopted by this year's voters, which I find pretty disappointing, but whatevvs...)

[StartOrien]

I read the thread, but I mean at the same time, c'mon: it's dwight howard vs. al jefferson

What's more likely, Al Jefferson isn't actually better than Dwight Howard or that Dwight Howard didn't exactly 'wake up' for a couple games in Utah/Minnesota.

One guy was the best player on a team that made the finals, and one hasn't been able to help a team win.

Dwight Howard is obviously a better player overall.  I think 18 games is a significant enough sample size to show that Big Al has limited Howard, though.

I mean, why look at statistics or head to head matchups at all?  Why even make these arguments?  Just vote for the teams with Lebron, Durant, and Howard, no matter how poor their teammates.  (This seems to be the strategy adopted by this year's voters, which I find pretty disappointing, but whatevvs...)

Dwight Howard AND Derek Rose.

[Roy H.]

I read the thread, but I mean at the same time, c'mon: it's dwight howard vs. al jefferson

What's more likely, Al Jefferson isn't actually better than Dwight Howard or that Dwight Howard didn't exactly 'wake up' for a couple games in Utah/Minnesota.

One guy was the best player on a team that made the finals, and one hasn't been able to help a team win.

Dwight Howard is obviously a better player overall.  I think 18 games is a significant enough sample size to show that Big Al has limited Howard, though.

I mean, why look at statistics or head to head matchups at all?  Why even make these arguments?  Just vote for the teams with Lebron, Durant, and Howard, no matter how poor their teammates.  (This seems to be the strategy adopted by this year's voters, which I find pretty disappointing, but whatevvs...)

Dwight Howard AND Derek Rose.

I'm not arguing that Rose vs. Nash isn't a mismatch.  It's the biggest one in the series.

The second, third, and fourth biggest mismatches all favor Dallas, though.