2013 CB Draft: Western Semi Finals: Oklahoma City(2) vs Dallas(3)

[Lucky17]

For those of you talking about Udonis Haslem's precipitous "decline" from relevance this past season, you might be interested in this:

http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/9437252/udonis-haslem-played-torn-meniscus-needs-knee-surgery

Haslem played 50 games after that injury, including Miami's playoff run.

How did I not know this? Dude is an absolute warrior. 22 playoff games, including 19 starts.

[fitzhickey]

Also, how did Los Angeles as a contender work out?

I assume this is a dig at Howard?

Perhaps we should ask Mike D'Antoni about his inept coaching strategy, or Kobe Bryant about his inability to share the basketball.

Despite these two huge impediments to his personal success, Dwight Howard still managed to post numbers just a tick below his career averages last season.

Still, Dwight remains the whipping boy for the 2012-13 Lakers' season of failed expectations.

[P.S.: Let's not mention Steve Nash's 6.7 apg, a career low since the 1999-2000 season with Dallas, in only 50 (!) games played.]

Oh, the Lakers were a disaster.  I just think it's weird for IP to argue that Howard made the Lakers instant contenders.

What? I'm arguing that. Well I am, but not like you say.

I'm saying LA was elevated to the status of 'contender' by fans and the press alike, and Houston now is too.

Okay...  so Howard elevated the team on paper, but in reality, the Lakers weren't as good as the fans and the media thought.

That sounds remarkably like the present matchup, where the conventional wisdom is that Howard would walk all over Big Al, when the reality of the situation to date is the opposite.

Fixed that for you, Roy.

And again, the reality shows that Big Al has matched Dwight's scoring in head-to-head matchups, but in all other facets of the game, Dwight's come out on top.

As with the last series, OKC enjoys a considerable combined advantage over its opponent at the PG and C positions. The question is whether Eric Gordon, Luol Deng, and Josh Smith can play efficiently enough on offense against OKC's team defense to make up the difference. I don't believe they can.

I firmly believe Gordon, Deng and Smith can ravage OKC, no worries.
The only "real" advantage OKC has is Rose, as it has been proven that Al holds D12 to below averages.
Dallas in 6 no fuss

[Lucky17]

fitz, can you talk about shot attempts? I raised doubts about your four starters (besides Nash) being able to generate 60 attempts a game, even without accounting for the ball pressure Nash is going to have to deal with.

[fitzhickey]

For those of you talking about Udonis Haslem's precipitous "decline" from relevance this past season, you might be interested in this:

http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/9437252/udonis-haslem-played-torn-meniscus-needs-knee-surgery

Haslem played 50 games after that injury, including Miami's playoff run.

How did I not know this? Dude is an absolute warrior. 22 playoff games, including 19 starts.

Luol Deng played last season with a torn ligament in his wrist.
And the season prior.

Both those things say loads about the players

[fitzhickey]

fitz, can you talk about shot attempts? I raised doubts about your four starters (besides Nash) being able to generate 60 attempts a game, even without accounting for the ball pressure Nash is going to have to deal with.

As you have two good defenders, Gordon and Smith will play less part in the offense. They will be more distributive than usual, looking to spread the floor. Whenever a matchup isn't in my favor easily I can just defer to someone else. All players on the is team are capable
And I think my guys can generate 60 shots a game
The Denver nuggets starting lineup averaged 66.4 per game

[Lucky17]

fitz, can you talk about shot attempts? I raised doubts about your four starters (besides Nash) being able to generate 60 attempts a game, even without accounting for the ball pressure Nash is going to have to deal with.

As you have two good defenders, Gordon and Smith will play less part in the offense. They will be more distributive than usual, looking to spread the floor. Whenever a matchup isn't in my favor easily I can just defer to someone else. All players on the is team are capable
And I think my guys can generate 60 shots a game
The Denver nuggets starting lineup averaged 66.4 per game

That was under a George Karl run-and-gun offense that I'm guessing led the league in pace.

[Edit: Denver was #2 for pace: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor]

I think we can therefore expect that Gordon, Smith, and Big Al will have fewer shot attempts per game, and less scoring?

[dark_lord]

i keep going back and forth on this matchup. really tough choice. 

[fitzhickey]

fitz, can you talk about shot attempts? I raised doubts about your four starters (besides Nash) being able to generate 60 attempts a game, even without accounting for the ball pressure Nash is going to have to deal with.

As you have two good defenders, Gordon and Smith will play less part in the offense. They will be more distributive than usual, looking to spread the floor. Whenever a matchup isn't in my favor easily I can just defer to someone else. All players on the is team are capable
And I think my guys can generate 60 shots a game
The Denver nuggets starting lineup averaged 66.4 per game

That was under a George Karl run-and-gun offense that I'm guessing led the league in pace.

[Edit: Denver was #2 for pace: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor]

I think we can therefore expect that Gordon, Smith, and Big Al will have fewer shot attempts per game, and less scoring?

This team will be pushing the pace too. Not quite Denver level but still good transition offense. I think, in this matchup, Deng and Al will take larger roles on offense, with Gordon being a spot up shooter and Smith cutting and causing whatever havoc he can.

[KGs Knee]

I'm gonna go with OKC on this one.

For all the talk of Big Al being able to play D12 fairly evenly, I just don't see Dallas' defense being able to contain the PnR of Howard/Rose.  Howard has never had the opportunity to play with a PG this good, and I suspect it will only serve to increase his efficiency exponentially.

[fitzhickey]

i keep going back and forth on this matchup. really tough choice.

This is an intense debate man.
I'm tired haha

[fitzhickey]

I'm gonna go with OKC on this one.

For all the talk of Big Al being able to play D12 fairly evenly, I just don't see Dallas' defense being able to contain the PnR of Howard/Rose.  Howard has never had the opportunity to play with a PG this good, and I suspect it will only serve to increase his efficiency exponentially.

Gotta disagree with you
Big Al has improved largely in P&R defense lately and Smith will rotate to help too.
There's no chance they can guard Deng, Smith, Gordon and Big Al adequately all at the same time

[Lucky17]

In terms of rebounding,

PG: Rose > Nash
SG: Shumpert > Gordon
SF: Budinger < Deng
PF: T.Gibson = J.Smith
 C: Dwight > Big Al

In terms of the starting lineup, I think OKC has a pretty significant advantage on the boards.

I think this goes to establishing pace.

How will Dallas push the pace of the game if they're being outrebounded as a team?

Pushing pace also means that Al Jefferson probably won't be doing much beyond outlet passing, assuming he does get the rebound. Rose, Shumpert, Buds, and Taj are all fast enough to help recover in transition. I suspect Dwight will also beat his man back on defense too.

[fitzhickey]

In terms of rebounding,

PG: Rose > Nash
SG: Shumpert > Gordon
SF: Budinger < Deng
PF: T.Gibson = J.Smith
 C: Dwight > Big Al

In terms of the starting lineup, I think OKC has a pretty significant advantage on the boards.

I think this goes to establishing pace.

How will Dallas push the pace of the game if they're being outrebounded as a team?

Pushing pace also means that Al Jefferson probably won't be doing much beyond outlet passing, assuming he does get the rebound. Rose, Shumpert, Buds, and Taj are all fast enough to help recover in transition. I suspect Dwight will also beat his man back on defense too.

If you get back i am happy tiring out rose and howard
if not i get an easy bucket
either way i am happy

[Roy H.]

Pushing pace also means that Al Jefferson probably won't be doing much beyond outlet passing...

?

I'm genuinely confused by this statement.  Plenty of teams push the pace, but don't do so 100% of the time.  You're always going to need half court scorers; this might be the first time I've ever seen a team punished for having a great post player because he's not a finisher on the break.

The '86 Celtics played at a much faster pace than even the quickest teams now.  That doesn't mean that Robert Parish and Kevin McHale didn't see plenty of touches in their offense, despite them not scoring a lot on the break.

[Lucky17]

Pushing pace also means that Al Jefferson probably won't be doing much beyond outlet passing...

?

I'm genuinely confused by this statement.  Plenty of teams push the pace, but don't do so 100% of the time.  You're always going to need half court scorers; this might be the first time I've ever seen a team punished for having a great post player because he's not a finisher on the break.

The '86 Celtics played at a much faster pace than even the quickest teams now.  That doesn't mean that Robert Parish and Kevin McHale didn't see plenty of touches in their offense, despite them not scoring a lot on the break.

Al Jefferson is slow. If Nash and company are going to push the pace, Al won't be participating much in the transition offense.

I'm having an increasingly hard time believing that Al can match Dwight Howard's scoring in this series. There's now more pressure for Al to do so with fewer touches in the half-court offense.