Ainge - a look at GM draft performance

[Fan from VT]

I love the fact that Ainge can seeming grab a productive role player in the second round every couple of years and that he has hit on some late picks in the first round, but what I want to know is that when given high(lottery) first round picks, which he should be getting over the next couple of years at least, will he not screw them up?

It's tough to know about this for sure but thinking back to guys at the top who Ainge was rumored to covet, the evidence looks pretty good. He went after Chris Paul hard, apparently, and CP ended up being an MVP-caliber player and the the best player in the 2005 draft despite being picked 4th. He was also rumored to love Durant, even perhaps over Oden.

I'm probably missing others though - can anyone else remember other rumors like those? I understand that a lot of this stuff is hearsay, but knowing that Ainge valued CP highly and not  for example Adam Morrison provides some insight.

Well, he was very strong after Robert Swift in the '04 draft and apparently would have taken him if he slipped further. Not only that, but I believe Ainge offered Jefferson for Swift in trades a couple times and was denied early on. So that's an example of Ainge getting very lucky at not getting his way.

[Fan from VT]

Since Al Jefferson was taken at #15, Danny has had only two picks in the top 15.  The first one was the 2007 #5 (Jeff Green) who he traded for Ray Allen and the 2nd round selection of Davis.   The other was this last year's #13 (Olynyk), which he got by trading our #16 and change to get.

Is there a reason that you count the trade of Jeff Green at #5, but don't count the trade of Randy Foye for Raef + Telfair at #6?  Or why you begin your analysis after the Big Al pick, and disregard Marcus Banks at #13?

I don't know why MMMMM skips Banks but from the original study, the author attributes the Foye pick to Portland (under the assumption, the TB's directed Ainge who to pick there?) much as he doesn't credit (or discredit) ainge for picking Troy Bell and Dante Jones in the 2004 draft and then swapping them to Memphis for  Banks & Perkins.

I know the original authors reason for this is on one of the 4 links, but I can't put my finger on it.

I can understand not assessing Foye as one of Danny's draft picks.  However, it's inconsistent to value Jeff Green / the return for Jeff Green, and to not value Randy Foye / the return for Randy Foye.

When one ignores Banks and Raef/Telfair, but gives credit for Ray Allen / Big Baby, it comes across as a little biased.

Yeah, the article is assessing the skill at picking players at various points in the draft. On draft day trades, the drafting team has zero percent input on who to draft with the pick they are trading. None, zero. So no credit.

[BballTim]

I love the fact that Ainge can seeming grab a productive role player in the second round every couple of years and that he has hit on some late picks in the first round, but what I want to know is that when given high(lottery) first round picks, which he should be getting over the next couple of years at least, will he not screw them up?

It's tough to know about this for sure but thinking back to guys at the top who Ainge was rumored to covet, the evidence looks pretty good. He went after Chris Paul hard, apparently, and CP ended up being an MVP-caliber player and the the best player in the 2005 draft despite being picked 4th. He was also rumored to love Durant, even perhaps over Oden.

I'm probably missing others though - can anyone else remember other rumors like those? I understand that a lot of this stuff is hearsay, but knowing that Ainge valued CP highly and not  for example Adam Morrison provides some insight.

Well, he was very strong after Robert Swift in the '04 draft and apparently would have taken him if he slipped further. Not only that, but I believe Ainge offered Jefferson for Swift in trades a couple times and was denied early on. So that's an example of Ainge getting very lucky at not getting his way.

  The Sonics were pretty high on Swift before his knee injuries. I don't think like Swift is really a mark against Ainge.

[Boris Badenov]

I love the fact that Ainge can seeming grab a productive role player in the second round every couple of years and that he has hit on some late picks in the first round, but what I want to know is that when given high(lottery) first round picks, which he should be getting over the next couple of years at least, will he not screw them up?

It's tough to know about this for sure but thinking back to guys at the top who Ainge was rumored to covet, the evidence looks pretty good. He went after Chris Paul hard, apparently, and CP ended up being an MVP-caliber player and the the best player in the 2005 draft despite being picked 4th. He was also rumored to love Durant, even perhaps over Oden.

I'm probably missing others though - can anyone else remember other rumors like those? I understand that a lot of this stuff is hearsay, but knowing that Ainge valued CP highly and not  for example Adam Morrison provides some insight.

Well, he was very strong after Robert Swift in the '04 draft and apparently would have taken him if he slipped further. Not only that, but I believe Ainge offered Jefferson for Swift in trades a couple times and was denied early on. So that's an example of Ainge getting very lucky at not getting his way.

  The Sonics were pretty high on Swift before his knee injuries. I don't think like Swift is really a mark against Ainge.

Agreed, Swift is a bit ambiguous. But, that would have fallen into the same #15 slot that we used on Big Al, so it's not necessarily a signal about Ainge's top-10 or top-5 picking ability.

Someone else above pointed out that Danny apparently loved Yi Jianlian. That is definitely not a positive, if true.

[Eric M VAN]

I love the fact that Ainge can seeming grab a productive role player in the second round every couple of years and that he has hit on some late picks in the first round, but what I want to know is that when given high(lottery) first round picks, which he should be getting over the next couple of years at least, will he not screw them up?

It's tough to know about this for sure but thinking back to guys at the top who Ainge was rumored to covet, the evidence looks pretty good. He went after Chris Paul hard, apparently, and CP ended up being an MVP-caliber player and the the best player in the 2005 draft despite being picked 4th. He was also rumored to love Durant, even perhaps over Oden.

I'm probably missing others though - can anyone else remember other rumors like those? I understand that a lot of this stuff is hearsay, but knowing that Ainge valued CP highly and not  for example Adam Morrison provides some insight.

Well, he was very strong after Robert Swift in the '04 draft and apparently would have taken him if he slipped further. Not only that, but I believe Ainge offered Jefferson for Swift in trades a couple times and was denied early on. So that's an example of Ainge getting very lucky at not getting his way.

  The Sonics were pretty high on Swift before his knee injuries. I don't think like Swift is really a mark against Ainge.

Agreed, Swift is a bit ambiguous. But, that would have fallen into the same #15 slot that we used on Big Al, so it's not necessarily a signal about Ainge's top-10 or top-5 picking ability.

Someone else above pointed out that Danny apparently loved Yi Jianlian. That is definitely not a positive, if true.

Right, if any of the rumors were true about Swift (and I remember those) and Jianlian. Was it posturing, were they each one of 5 (or 10 or 30) guys on their board they were looking at? The draft can be a poker match with multiple stakes. At the end of the day we (or at least I) can only judge a GM on who they actually pick. For instance I can't give points to Stu Inman in 1984 for leaking something like "You know, we were thinking about that Jordan guy really really hard"

[Boris Badenov]

I love the fact that Ainge can seeming grab a productive role player in the second round every couple of years and that he has hit on some late picks in the first round, but what I want to know is that when given high(lottery) first round picks, which he should be getting over the next couple of years at least, will he not screw them up?

It's tough to know about this for sure but thinking back to guys at the top who Ainge was rumored to covet, the evidence looks pretty good. He went after Chris Paul hard, apparently, and CP ended up being an MVP-caliber player and the the best player in the 2005 draft despite being picked 4th. He was also rumored to love Durant, even perhaps over Oden.

I'm probably missing others though - can anyone else remember other rumors like those? I understand that a lot of this stuff is hearsay, but knowing that Ainge valued CP highly and not  for example Adam Morrison provides some insight.

Well, he was very strong after Robert Swift in the '04 draft and apparently would have taken him if he slipped further. Not only that, but I believe Ainge offered Jefferson for Swift in trades a couple times and was denied early on. So that's an example of Ainge getting very lucky at not getting his way.

  The Sonics were pretty high on Swift before his knee injuries. I don't think like Swift is really a mark against Ainge.

Agreed, Swift is a bit ambiguous. But, that would have fallen into the same #15 slot that we used on Big Al, so it's not necessarily a signal about Ainge's top-10 or top-5 picking ability.

Someone else above pointed out that Danny apparently loved Yi Jianlian. That is definitely not a positive, if true.

Right, if any of the rumors were true about Swift (and I remember those) and Jianlian. Was it posturing, were they each one of 5 (or 10 or 30) guys on their board they were looking at? The draft can be a poker match with multiple stakes. At the end of the day we (or at least I) can only judge a GM on who they actually pick. For instance I can't give points to Stu Inman in 1984 for leaking something like "You know, we were thinking about that Jordan guy really really hard"

Fair enough, this is reading the tea leaves at its finest. But we have nothing else to go on, right?

I will say that the Chris Paul rumor is the most credible of the lot. Ainge himself and multiple reliable media sources have said that deal was close to happening.

[nickagneta]

I think the Swift rumors were 100% true because later on I thought I remembered Danny bringing him in as a camp invite or at least seriously considering it.

And on Yi, consensus on just about every draft site just before the draft in 2007 had Danny taking Yi Jianlian. Like from every beat Celtics writer to every national guy. The word was out he was their guy. Being able to get Ray Allen though, will change your mind fast on something like that.

Strange that JR Giddens name hasn't been brought up in this thread. JJJ and Fab were bad picks but that Giddens trade in a deep draft that had no less than 6 regular rotation, future starting caliber NBA players on the board was a disaster. Nikola Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Omer Asik, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Goran Dragic were all still on the board and many were speculated to be the C's pick and were far from unknowns. Giddens had a bad reputation and wasn't projected as a top 45 pick.

[Master Po]

Apparently Eric Van you didn't have a response to my latest front page post ? You seemed to be ranting on me pretty good until then.... surprised mmmmmm didn't pile on either.... LOL
An analysis with too many variables is quite a difficult path to find the truth unless one is walking on a path called "opinion"

[Eric M VAN]

I think the Swift rumors were 100% true because later on I thought I remembered Danny bringing him in as a camp invite or at least seriously considering it.

And on Yi, consensus on just about every draft site just before the draft in 2007 had Danny taking Yi Jianlian. Like from every beat Celtics writer to every national guy. The word was out he was their guy. Being able to get Ray Allen though, will change your mind fast on something like that.

Strange that JR Giddens name hasn't been brought up in this thread. JJJ and Fab were bad picks but that Giddens trade in a deep draft that had no less than 6 regular rotation, future starting caliber NBA players on the board was a disaster. Nikola Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Omer Asik, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Goran Dragic were all still on the board and many were speculated to be the C's pick and were far from unknowns. Giddens had a bad reputation and wasn't projected as a top 45 pick.

Yeah, the Swift thing was really strong back then (that kid was fuuuuuuu--gly!) Swift was going to start for the Sonics in his third season but ruptured an ACL. Never came back full speed. Big problems with him too "In 2013, it was reported that Swift was refusing to vacate his foreclosed home, which had been bought by a new owner. The new owner bought the house in Sammamish, Washington in January 2013 for half the price paid in 2006.[7][8] Swift eventually left the home, which was reportedly riddled with animal feces, guns, bullets, beer bottles, and garbage. Observers also noted old letters from some of the top college basketball programs in the country trying to recruit Swift, before he went straight to the NBA from high school. [9]

I forgot he was invited to summer league a few years back: From our own Celtics Blog
http://www.celticsblog.com/2009/7/1/934417/robert-swift-will-finally-play-for

Giddens was bad but he was a 30th pick. It would have been nice to swap that 30th for a second rounder. His mock draft history put him way below where they picked him (I'm loving these mock draft histories that mmmmmmm pointed out in a recent thread)

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/J.R.-Giddens-74/mock-draft-history/

Funny thing is, Pekovic went first pick in the second round on a pick that originally was Boston's. No defending the Giddens selection besides how late a pick it was. Here's some perspective from Wiki-peedia

On June 26, 2008, Giddens was selected by the Boston Celtics with the 30th overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. He had worked out with the Celtics for three days, and received praises from head coach Doc Rivers,[4] who thought he could fight for minutes on the team right away.[5] He was even mentioned as a possible replacement for restricted free agent Tony Allen.[6] Giddens was already familiar with Leon Powe and Kendrick Perkins, who were his teammates at the 2003 McDonald's All-American Game.

So I blame Doc!!!!!!

If I were a GM (HA!!) I'd definitely try to offload any pick that close to the second round to avoid the guaranteed contract.

[mmmmm]

Well, yes and no.

The decision to trade out of (Foye) or up into (Banks) a pick is based on one's assessment of the draft.   In the case of Foye, Danny valued getting Ratliff & Telfair more than he valued staying in that draft.   

In the case of Banks, as a package, he valued moving up at the top (from #16, Bell, to #13) while moving down later (from #20, Jones, to #27, Perkins).  Because there were a few players in the teens who ended up with better careers than Banks, it looks like Danny 'missed' with him.  But he obviously read the latter part of the round better and scored big with Perkins.  Overall, he probably came out ahead as a package.

The pick of Jeff Green at #5 didn't necessarily represent any great skill at player selection.  At that spot, in that draft, it was a no-brainer to take him.   However, the decision to trade Green, Wally & Delonte for Ray and the pick of Davis was 'GM skill'.   That's recognizing what your team needs - and at that time he needed to show Kevin Garnett that he was serious about forming a contending team.  Arguably, the selection of Davis with that late pick (#35) was probably the biggest use of 'draft' skill within all that.

In draft day trades the picks are made by the receiving team. So you have to choose if you are going to give credit for the player to the team that actually chose the pick or the team that technically drafted then traded the pick, then be consistent.

In '03, the Celtics chose Banks and Perkins. They were not responsible at all for Bell and Jones. So Banks and Perkins are who they should get credit for (but I believe it is still in question which individual wanted banks). In 2006 the C's did not choose a pick. They traded the pick and Portland decided who to take there.

In '07 same thing. Ainge was rumored to love Yi if they were going to keep the pick. They had no input in selective Green; they wanted Ray Allen, so they allowed Presti to pick Green. However, they got the second rounder and the C's were the ones who chose Davis, so great value there.

In sum: in terms of drafting grading alone, Ainge should get no credit or demerit for Jones, Bell, Green, Foye. But he does get credit for players not technically drafted by the C's but in fact chosen by the C's, like Davis, Perkins, Banks.

Yes, I agree in terms of 'drafting grade' - for the purposes of the referenced study, that each GM should receive credit for the players they have actually selected for themselves and not those for whom the pick was already traded.  That is measuring raw drafted player evaluation.

That said, as a part of being a smart GM, a GM should get credit (or blame) for assessing that he can get more value by trading out of a pick.  Hence the value received for the Foye and Green picks is not Foye or Green, but the players they received for them.   One might argue that that is a'trade' and not a 'draft' skill, but part of the decision making that drives the trade is evaluating the draft and the player he could decide to keep with that pick compared to what he could get in trade.

[Eric M VAN]

Apparently Eric Van you didn't have a response to my latest front page post ? You seemed to be ranting on me pretty good until then.... surprised mmmmmm didn't pile on either.... LOL
An analysis with too many variables is quite a difficult path to find the truth unless one is walking on a path called "opinion"

You're right. Your argument was so convincing that I was humbled, embarrassed and  so severely put in my place I ambled off like a dog with it's tail between it's legs. I don't know what I was thinking. I'll change my signature to "Danny sucks" and take the batteries out of my calculator and wear big boy pants moving forward. 

[Master Po]

in other words....the light finally came on...hahahahaha...

[mmmmm]

I think the Swift rumors were 100% true because later on I thought I remembered Danny bringing him in as a camp invite or at least seriously considering it.

And on Yi, consensus on just about every draft site just before the draft in 2007 had Danny taking Yi Jianlian. Like from every beat Celtics writer to every national guy. The word was out he was their guy. Being able to get Ray Allen though, will change your mind fast on something like that.

Strange that JR Giddens name hasn't been brought up in this thread. JJJ and Fab were bad picks but that Giddens trade in a deep draft that had no less than 6 regular rotation, future starting caliber NBA players on the board was a disaster. Nikola Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Omer Asik, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Goran Dragic were all still on the board and many were speculated to be the C's pick and were far from unknowns. Giddens had a bad reputation and wasn't projected as a top 45 pick.

Well, weren't the rumors that Danny had offered a draft promise to Dennis Shroeder in this last draft?

Every single season, there are a ton of draft rumors floating around Ainge and most of the time he does something completely different from the rumors.   I would not be surprised if Danny himself puts out some of those rumors.

I think Eric is spot on that you ultimately can only assess them (GMs) on who they actually pick, sign and trade for.

I agree with your assessment that the Giddens pick hurts far more than the JJJ or Fab picks in terms of 'opportunity cost' because of the stronger class of players that still were on the board.

Still, I just can't get upset over any pick after 20 being a 'bust'.   No rookie joining that particular Celtics team was going to get any minutes and Danny was probably willing to just gamble. 

However, I think Eric raises a more valid question then of why not just flip the pick for a couple of 2nd rounders or maybe a future pick?

[bfrombleacher]

And on Yi, consensus on just about every draft site just before the draft in 2007 had Danny taking Yi Jianlian. Like from every beat Celtics writer to every national guy. The word was out he was their guy. Being able to get Ray Allen though, will change your mind fast on something like that.

Yi might not have been a (complete) bust in a different situation.

But Yi over Green would probably have been a mistake. Yi seems like a poor man's Jeff Green now. Everything Yi does well/probably would have done well; Jeff Green does better. Except for being tall.

Strange that JR Giddens name hasn't been brought up in this thread. JJJ and Fab were bad picks but that Giddens trade in a deep draft that had no less than 6 regular rotation, future starting caliber NBA players on the board was a disaster. Nikola Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Omer Asik, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Goran Dragic were all still on the board and many were speculated to be the C's pick and were far from unknowns. Giddens had a bad reputation and wasn't projected as a top 45 pick.

I've seen someone somewhere (might be an article, I remember it being a comment from a reader - might even be on this very thread) that Giddens had a case of "expectations too high". Giddens was drafted to fill a need. Being expected to be a rotation caliber player for a championship team could do that.

I don't agree with...any defending of that pick, though. I don't think there is or should be any disagreement as to how bad it was. The fact that he's a C's fan consensus worst pick ever may be why the pick is not discussed at length in this thread.

Ainge seems to have learned from it, though. Always go for BPA over fit and need when it is clear there is a better pick. Despite our power forward glut, Ainge traded up for Olynyk this year and it's looking up so far.

[BballTim]

I love the fact that Ainge can seeming grab a productive role player in the second round every couple of years and that he has hit on some late picks in the first round, but what I want to know is that when given high(lottery) first round picks, which he should be getting over the next couple of years at least, will he not screw them up?

It's tough to know about this for sure but thinking back to guys at the top who Ainge was rumored to covet, the evidence looks pretty good. He went after Chris Paul hard, apparently, and CP ended up being an MVP-caliber player and the the best player in the 2005 draft despite being picked 4th. He was also rumored to love Durant, even perhaps over Oden.

I'm probably missing others though - can anyone else remember other rumors like those? I understand that a lot of this stuff is hearsay, but knowing that Ainge valued CP highly and not  for example Adam Morrison provides some insight.

Well, he was very strong after Robert Swift in the '04 draft and apparently would have taken him if he slipped further. Not only that, but I believe Ainge offered Jefferson for Swift in trades a couple times and was denied early on. So that's an example of Ainge getting very lucky at not getting his way.

  The Sonics were pretty high on Swift before his knee injuries. I don't think like Swift is really a mark against Ainge.

Agreed, Swift is a bit ambiguous. But, that would have fallen into the same #15 slot that we used on Big Al, so it's not necessarily a signal about Ainge's top-10 or top-5 picking ability.

Someone else above pointed out that Danny apparently loved Yi Jianlian. That is definitely not a positive, if true.

  Ainge also loved Durant over Oden. I'd take that pick.