2013 CB Draft: Atlantic Division Press Conferences

[rondoallaturca]

Respond to arguments with arguments, not mocking .gifs.

But I did respond with an argument, did I not?

I will apologize for using the gif because as you pointed out, it's in the rules. But again, tell me gifs like that have not been used here before. Considering how long you've been here, you of all people should have known better than to actually interpret it as a personal attack.

[Fafnir]

Another example of context dependent Synergy numbers. Ray Allen grades out as elite against the P&R. Is he elite versus the pick and roll? Heck no!

Instead the Heat are trapping the crap out of the ball, so when they get burned by it someone else gets dinged for it as its via ball movement not a shot/foul out of the trap typically.

[Roy H.]

Once again I don't really trust synergy stats without the team context. Martin had a top defensive squad backing him, Hayward had a bottom 10 team for backup.

Given how close their overall defensive numbers are and my own eye test I'd say Hayward is better defensively.

Having a 107 DRTG with a top 4 NBA defense overall is really bad. Really, really bad.

Hayward's DRtg of 110 is really, really bad, too.  Big Al, for comparison sake, was a 104.

I'm not arguing that Martin is a good defender; he's not.  However, Hayward isn't, either.  He's at least as bad as Martin, and probably worse. 

I think there's a tendency to equate "scrappy" hard-working players with being good defenders sometimes.  In Hayward's case, that's not true.

[nickagneta]

Move on

[nickagneta]

Honest question, but where was the bickering? I thought we were all just talking. Lil good natured competitive banter. Is there an antagonistic tone in the thread?

Between Roy and rondoallaturca, IMHO, yes. The gif and other things are just a little to close to breaking the very draft behavior rules you wrote.

So what you're saying is that it's NOT related to the obvious double standard regarding Kyrie Irving's games expected played next season and Ricky Rubio's

Pretty much and I agree Irving is probably a better bet to play more games than Rubio next year. And also a sure bet to play overall better basketball.

[Roy H.]

Honest question, but where was the bickering? I thought we were all just talking. Lil good natured competitive banter. Is there an antagonistic tone in the thread?

Between Roy and rondoallaturca, IMHO, yes. The gif and other things are just a little to close to breaking the very draft behavior rules you wrote.

So what you're saying is that it's NOT related to the obvious double standard regarding Kyrie Irving's games expected played next season and Ricky Rubio's

Pretty much and I agree Irving is probably a better bet to play more games than Rubio next year. And also a sure bet to play overall better basketball.

I'm not really concerned about the injuries to either.  They're both young enough that I'm optimistic they'll both bounce back with a relatively injury free season ala Steph Curry.

It's pretty arbitrary to decide which players get downgraded for injury concerns, and which ones don't.  I think there are only a handful of players who I'm thinking will significantly harm their team's regular season performance:  Oden, Bynum, Gallinari, Kobe, Rondo.  Those guys are basically guaranteed to miss some time.  Everyone else (with probably a couple of exceptions I'm forgetting), I'm an optimist on, including guys with some big concerns like Bogut, Varejao, and Gordon.

EDIT: Amare, too.

[indeedproceed]

Roy I can't disagree more about Hayward defensively. Martin stepped his game up in OKC to passable, but Hayward's getting the same Opp48 production with a third of the talent for help. You put Hayward on OKC and Id think he'd see a similar improvement.

[Roy H.]

Roy I can't disagree more about Hayward defensively. Martin stepped his game up in OKC to passable, but Hayward's getting the same Opp48 production with a third of the talent for help. You put Hayward on OKC and Id think he'd see a similar improvement.

I already adjusted it, by calling him equal to Martin despite the numbers saying that Hayward was clearly inferior.

A 110 DRtg is terrible, no matter who your teammates are.  Again, for context, Big Al put up a 104.  Martin's numbers were the same or better than Hayward's pretty much across the board. 

Hayward graded out as a pretty mediocre defender last year. 

[indeedproceed]

Which number accounts for boyish good looks and a never say die attitude? Cuz Martin's behind him by a bit there for certain.

[Roy H.]

Which number accounts for boyish good looks and a never say die attitude? Cuz Martin's behind him by a bit there for certain.

Come on, son.

[rondoallaturca]

I already adjusted it, by calling him equal to Martin despite the numbers saying that Hayward was clearly inferior.

A 110 DRtg is terrible, no matter who your teammates are.  Again, for context, Big Al put up a 104.  Martin's numbers were the same or better than Hayward's pretty much across the board. 

Hayward graded out as a pretty mediocre defender last year.

What I dislike about DRtg is that its a function of blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, estimated forced TOs, and estimated forced misses. Obviously, blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds hardly serve as an accurate for a player's true value, and estimating forced TOs and misses is just that - estimating.

It's especially pointless to compare the DRtg of a big man and a guard, because Hayward obviously does not rack up as many blocks, steals, or rebounds as Jefferson. Similarly, DRtg has Ibaka at a career 101 rating, while Westbrook's is just 106; I don't think anyone will argue that Westbrook is a worse defender.

Comparing just Martin and Hayward then, I think Fafnir puts it the best: the fact that Martin posted a 107 DRtg on OKC while Hayward was 110 on UTA is significant. I just wish there was a way to access Synergy stats for past years so that there's more quantifiable evidence though.

[Roy H.]

It's especially pointless to compare the DRtg of a big man and a guard, because Hayward obviously does not rack up as many blocks, steals, or rebounds as Jefferson. Similarly, DRtg has Ibaka at a career 101 rating, while Westbrook's is just 106; I don't think anyone will argue that Westbrook is a better defender.

I think you phrased this wrong, because the numbers say that Ibaka is a better defender.

Regardless, I don't think any one metric should be used to determine defense, and nothing we have is perfect.  However, if one player is uniformly better across all metrics, it generally suggests that that player is, in fact, a better defender (and certainly not significantly worse).

[rondoallaturca]

Yep, thanks for catching my mistake. I corrected it. I also agree with you that there really is no perfect metric of defense; Synergy is often the go-to resource but even that has a few conditions to account for. However, do you not agree that Martin's top 4 defensive supporting cast had a lot to do with boosting his numbers significantly from his career averages? To put it in perspective, Ray Allen's DRtg significantly improved starting the season he was traded to Boston. This season in Miami, Allen also put up a 107 DRtg as well as slightly better Synergy numbers. Would you also call Ray Allen a better defender than Gordon Hayward?

[pearljammer10]

I measure defense by watching players with my eyes. And there is nothing in Haywood's game play that suggests he would be a superior defender to Kevin Martin on any squad. Martin isn't great. Haywood is no better.

And I just don't see the argument against my squad being worse defensively. Sanders has a shot to be in talks for DPOY. Green and Rubio are well above average defenders. Lopez can at least body up down low. And I also don't see how my bench isn't as deep. It has three players that could start on a big handful of teams in the league.

[indeedproceed]

Here is a good synopsis of Gordon Hayward's defense from one of the best blogs out there, SLC DUNK

I always marvel at Hayward's defense. I do so because he really doesn't have a bunch of crazy physical tools to become a great defender. He doesn't have the insane defensive potential of, say, Derrick Favors.

All Hayward does is fight. He fights through screens, he fights guys posting him up. And yes, he gets beat plenty of times. But by just fighting everything, he turns out to make things hard for opponents.

That said, I think sometimes Hayward's defense can be overrated. He rotates off his man standing at the corner 3 WAY too often. Part of is on Ty, for his game plan made infamous by Zach Lowe's fun analysis. But part of it is on Hayward. You're a smart player, so let's be smart about this: Don't rotate off the corner 3 to help. Especially when Derrick and Enes will be covering the paint.

But it's more than that, even. He's not really a lock-down defender. He can't simply go in and shut a guy down. Instead, Hayward pesters them and make things hard. That pestering is enough to make his opponents have overall down games (12.4 PER-allowed last year).

I hope that as Hayward becomes a leader of the team, he can instill some of this pestering in the other players. And that's what I will look for this year: how much his effort on defense is reflected in other players. Because I don't think Hayward will ever be a lock-down defender. He just doesn't have the tools. And that's okay ... because there are guys on the team who do have the tools (Favors and Kanter, as well as Burks on PG's).

I mostly hope that Hayward can inspire the other guys to put as much effort into it as he does.

It's the usual end of the year/looking at next year piece a lot of teams do, and I think it's a good game on him from good writers who watch him regularly.