Tankers Need A Reality Check

[McHales Pits]

Unless there are injuries, there is no way we are a team that even gets in the lottery. Too solid to not make the playoffs, but unfortunately, too young to go deep. As much as I'd love a top pick, it's not gonna happen this year.

In my opinion, we are a star center or SG away from being a contender.



DISCUSS!

We need injuries, huh?

Our best player is hurt. Currently rehabbing from serious knee surgery and is guaranteed to be out for at least a month of the season.

Last year's top draft choice is also injured. Currently rehabbing from serious (and expected) back surgery. Not to mention he is carrying too much weight on his body.

This year's top draft choice is also injured. Plantar fascia is no joke and it can be extremely painful.

Oh and not to mention Paul and Kevin are off the team...

Playoffs? No top draft pick? Wow you really do like to brew your own whiskey.

[chambers]

I really don't understand the idea that Bass is a proven defender against Lebron and Melo.  When he guarded Lebron in game 6 in 2012 after Pierce got into foul trouble, he looked okay, meaning, he wasn't as awful as expected. When Doc went back to Bass in game 7 against Lebron, he got roasted like expected.  There is no way Bass is a competent defender against Lebron.  He's spent about 15 minutes of game time at most defending Lebron the past two seasons.  Lebron is the most unguardable player in the game and somehow Bass is an effective defender against him?  Yes, that's as absurd as it sounds.

Regarding Melo, the only success Bass had defending Melo was I think in game 6.  All the games before then, he had had little sucess. But about that "success" in game 6.  It wasn't anything Bass did.  Melo sabotaged himself by pulling up for long jumpers even after he had beaten Bass off the dribble.  This is sometimes the conundrum of Melo and his bad shot selection.  After a few clanks and I suppose some talking to by coaches, he stopped pulling up for jumpers and repeatedly drove past Bass.  So no, Bass cannot defend Melo.  Again it's absurd.

Even if Bass had been outstanding in the 40 total minutes he spent defending Melo and Lebron the past two seasons, I think the terrible rebounding, poor awareness on team defense and the near total reluctance to take a charge outweighs whatever he accomplished in 40 minutes.

He was awesome vs Melo. Struggled vs Lebron in 2012 but if he had the chance now he'd be much improved.
I think he guarded Melo better than anyone ever has in the playoffs to be honest. His help defense was actually very good too from late 2011 onwards.
He's a stretch 4 most of the time he's on so his rebounding is fine. He'll rebound much more in a Stevens offense as opposed to running back on defense for Doc Rivers.

[merkins]

The anti-tanking crowd puts all of its energies into citing the examples of when high draft picks were busts. 

My question is:  without high draft picks giving a team the best possible shot to land a franchise player, how is this team supposed to build a title contender with mid to low picks, trades and free agency? 

Yes, the 2007 trades happened.  Id argue that scenario has a far less likelihood of happening again than getting a star player, on a relatively cheap deal for many years through the draft.

Nobody roots for losing, they just are willing to accept the short term pain to improve the chances the C's have in the long term.  In that case, the tankers are taking the long view.

[Galeto]

I really don't understand the idea that Bass is a proven defender against Lebron and Melo.  When he guarded Lebron in game 6 in 2012 after Pierce got into foul trouble, he looked okay, meaning, he wasn't as awful as expected. When Doc went back to Bass in game 7 against Lebron, he got roasted like expected.  There is no way Bass is a competent defender against Lebron.  He's spent about 15 minutes of game time at most defending Lebron the past two seasons.  Lebron is the most unguardable player in the game and somehow Bass is an effective defender against him?  Yes, that's as absurd as it sounds.

Regarding Melo, the only success Bass had defending Melo was I think in game 6.  All the games before then, he had had little sucess. But about that "success" in game 6.  It wasn't anything Bass did.  Melo sabotaged himself by pulling up for long jumpers even after he had beaten Bass off the dribble.  This is sometimes the conundrum of Melo and his bad shot selection.  After a few clanks and I suppose some talking to by coaches, he stopped pulling up for jumpers and repeatedly drove past Bass.  So no, Bass cannot defend Melo.  Again it's absurd.

Even if Bass had been outstanding in the 40 total minutes he spent defending Melo and Lebron the past two seasons, I think the terrible rebounding, poor awareness on team defense and the near total reluctance to take a charge outweighs whatever he accomplished in 40 minutes.

He was awesome vs Melo. Struggled vs Lebron in 2012 but if he had the chance now he'd be much improved.
I think he guarded Melo better than anyone ever has in the playoffs to be honest. His help defense was actually very good too from late 2011 onwards.
He's a stretch 4 most of the time he's on so his rebounding is fine. He'll rebound much more in a Stevens offense as opposed to running back on defense for Doc Rivers.

Awesome?  Really?  Not just good, not just held his own but awesome?  No way.  And why do think he'll do better against Lebron?  Bass has poor lateral quickness and anticipation.  He does not contain dribble penetration nor can that be expected of him.  To be a top notch perimeter defender at his weight, he'd have to have Lebron-like physical and mental attributes.  Unfortunately Bass isn't even all that well coordinated.  The man can't even jump off one foot around the basket.  It would make my day to see him compete in the high jump.

I don't see how Bass defended Melo well.  Was he defending Melo when he missed some shots?  Sure but most of them were because Melo needlessly bailed Bass out by launching up long jumpers.  Poor shot selection is one of the things that makes Melo, Melo and potentially guardable by anyone.  Once Melo stopped bailing Bass out, he roasted him. 

Whatever you think of his perimeter defense, it does not salvage his terrible rebounding and inability/unwillingness to protect the basket by blocking/altering shots or taking charges.  I always compare him unfavorably to Udonis Haslam who, despite being undersized just like Bass, rebounds and has the toughness to take charges.

[PhoSita]

Unless there are injuries, there is no way we are a team that even gets in the lottery. Too solid to not make the playoffs, but unfortunately, too young to go deep. As much as I'd love a top pick, it's not gonna happen this year.

In my opinion, we are a star center or SG away from being a contender.



DISCUSS!

OH BOY!  You really showed me with all of your iron-clad statistical analysis there!  Indisputably, you are right and all of us who think the team will actually be pretty awful are just deluded!

[Q_FBE]

I am not a tanker but I cannot be certain that we will make the playoffs either. A lot will depend on Rondo (his health and attitude); Avery Bradley (his health and continued improvement); Jeff Green (his emergence as a primary option); Jared Sullenger (his health, no question about his attitude or work ethic); Kelly Olynik (What does he really bring to the table); Gerald Wallace (Can he regain his mojo); Kris Humphries (Help out with that rebounding). I noted that the Celtics have made it a priority to avoid the luxery tax this season. I agree with that decision.

Kieth Bogans will be a key contributer to this team but you might not see always see it on the basketball court. I see him as a mentor but he will give you a big moment if he is given an opportunity.

The same can be said for the 13-14 Celtics if you just give them an opportunity.

[SHAQATTACK]

Unless there are injuries, there is no way we are a team that even gets in the lottery. Too solid to not make the playoffs, but unfortunately, too young to go deep. As much as I'd love a top pick, it's not gonna happen this year.

In my opinion, we are a star center or SG away from being a contender.



DISCUSS!

OH BOY!  You really showed me with all of your iron-clad statistical analysis there!  Indisputably, you are right and all of us who think the team will actually be pretty awful are just deluded!

I  don't think we'll be bad .... I KNOW this team ain't winning more than 25 games max , unless a miracle happens and somebody like Lebron is brought on to the team .

Celtics are positioned nicely to be some sort of lottery draft.    .......just being realistic , sorry those season tickets will just suck for a few years.

[More Banners]

Maybe I'm a little too green, but I really like the players we have and how they come together on the court.

I don't see a glut of SGs, I just see extra players duking it out for their spot with Bradley.  Lee v. Bogans; Brooks v. Crawford.

The Rondo/Bradley pairing seems to be pretty good together, so far as I've seen.

At SF, Jeff Green looks like he has all the stuff, has never really played in a system that would look to use his abilities, and was good and versatile enough to start out of position on a WCF team just a few years into the league.  He's a 20 point guy, quite easily.  And his defense is pretty darned good.

Bass is proven at PF as a role player, starting while Sully rehabs and shapes up, and KO heals up and gets tuned up.  Solid rotation forward, playoff experience.

Center by committee is really the only problem we seem to have, and there are a few band-aids to try out, and a soon-to-be glut of quite talented PFs to fill in.  My guess is Hump starts, and if he can be tough and rebound, I'd say the rest of the roster will carry the offense enough to get us to 45 wins if the guys start to look tuned up, healthy and ready before Christmas.


The best part of the draft is that we have two picks and could perhaps trade up a couple of spots.  So why end up with, say, an 12th pick by tanking when you could perhaps trade a 17 and 26 for a 14 and get a fantastic player?

The lottery isn't worth planning for.  We already have an allstar PG, a 20pt scorer, an all-NBA defensive guard, and two possible starting PFs in Sully and KO in training.  KO looks like a 20pt guy to me as well.  I can see Sully and KO starting alongside each other quite nicely, especially with the perimeter players we have.

We're not desperate for talent, and the pieces look like the fit.  We need to play our hand this year the absolute best we can, and I'm pretty sure that'll put us over .500.

Last year's team surely looked to me like they were mailing it in much of the time, working themselves into shape and pacing themselves for a playoff run, looking to get tuned up (and tune up their record) likely after the ASB.  Then Rondo went down.  So I don't think last year's record reflects much on that team's potential; it was unfilled.

This year, I think it will start looking good sometime after Christmas/New years, and we'll have a playoff push.

[erisred]

The anti-tanking crowd puts all of its energies into citing the examples of when high draft picks were busts. 

My question is:  without high draft picks giving a team the best possible shot to land a franchise player, how is this team supposed to build a title contender with mid to low picks, trades and free agency? 

Yes, the 2007 trades happened.  Id argue that scenario has a far less likelihood of happening again than getting a star player, on a relatively cheap deal for many years through the draft.

Nobody roots for losing, they just are willing to accept the short term pain to improve the chances the C's have in the long term.  In that case, the tankers are taking the long view.

I'm not a huge fan of tanking, but everyone should keep in mind that the 2007 trades could only happen because of once in a lifetime circumstances *and* a very, very, good 15th pick, a 7th pick and a 5th pick in the previous years. I can't think of a team that has become a long-term contender without one or two top 10 picks along the way.

Boston needs top shelf assets. You use those assets to get top shelf players. Either you develop your assets into those players or you trade your assets for them. Either way, you have to acquire those assets...and you get them by drafting. The odds of getting top shelf assets goes up dramatically as your draft position approaches number 1.

Getting top picks is no guarantee of success, though. Plenty of teams continually draft in the top five and simply stay terrible. Getting the high pick is just the start and most GM's don't seem capable of moving past the starting position.  Danny has done it once, maybe he can do it again.

I'd honestly rather see the Celtics go for 5 to 8 than 15 to 18 this year. Maybe I'm wrong but I just don't think the current talent level on the squad has the potential to be in the NBA finals, now or in the future, and that's what I want to see on the Celtics. I don't want us to be the Pacers, if the Pacers peak out as ECF losers. That's where the C's were when Danny blew them up the first time. If that's the potential for this squad, I expect him to blow it up again.

Believe it or not, trading Pierce and KG wasn't the big blow-up. If that's coming, then it's going to be stripping down to the wood on the parquet floors. Maybe everybody gone...Green, Sully, Olynyk, even Rondo. That hasn't happened, so Danny still has hope that this team has potential. If he changes his mind, *then* you'll see the *real* tank.

[Boris Badenov]

The 8th seed in the East last year was Milwaukee. Here's my subjective analysis of how we compare now to their team then:

Backcourt: Rondo/Bradley/Lee/Brooks/Crawford vs. Jennings/Ellis/Reddick/Udrih.

This is a tough call, mostly because we don't know at what level, or how much, Rondo will be playing. However, even if he's healthy I think this is probably a wash, with Rondo beating Jennings but Ellis beating Bradley. While we might win on bench depth, Ellis and Jennings played ~80% of available backcourt minutes for MIL last year - we won't have two guys of that quality on the court nearly as often this year.

The verdict: equal if Rondo plays well, edge to MIL if Rondo is out or impaired.

Small Forward: Green/Wallace vs. Ilyasova/Dunleavy/Harris/Daniels

Another pretty even matchup though I think the C's might have a slight edge if Green keeps up his level of play. Ilyasova is good player though, he's certainly a better rebounder and shooter than Green. Green is a better defender. Wallace off the bench beats Dunleavy/Harris/Daniels IMO.

The verdict: slight edge to C's.

Frontcourt: Humphries/Bass/Sullinger/Olynyk/Faverani vs. Sanders/Mbah a Moute/Henson/Dalembert/Udoh.

This is a laugh. Sanders is one of the best young defenders in the league - we couldn't trade our entire front court for him. Henson had a terrific rookie season and Mbah a Moute and Dalembert are very solid NBA players, while Udoh is certainly a useful role player. Our frontcourt consists of two borderline starters, one promising rookie coming back from a season-ending injury and two guys who've never stepped on an NBA court.

The verdict: substantial advantage for MIL.

Overall, I personally would rate our perimeter players (PG/SG/SF) as pretty comparable overall to those on MIL - but only if Rondo is healthy. It's a tough comparison to make, as Ellis vs. Bradley is as apples-to-oranges as any comparison can be.

But I think it's pretty clear that if Rondo is hurt or subpar, we are significantly worse on the perimeter.

In the frontcourt we are quite simply outclassed. Sanders was a legit DPOY candidate, and the rest of the group is solid.

So, even with a healthy Rondo I find it very difficult to believe that we will be better this year than MIL was last year.

If Rondo sits for any length of time we project to be much worse than MIL, I can't see any way around that.

I'd also add that IMO it'll take Stevens 20-30 games to figure out the rotations, he's never coached in the NBA and we have a whole bunch of guys who've never played together.

So unless the East has gotten significantly weaker since last year (I think the opposite is true actually), and we aren't as good as the 8th seed was last year, how are we making the playoffs?

[McNoob]

My question is:  without high draft picks giving a team the best possible shot to land a franchise player, how is this team supposed to build a title contender with mid to low picks, trades and free agency? 

Do what Indiana did. They grabbed Hibbert and Granger 18th overall in separate drafts, drafted George 10th overall, signed David West in FA, and traded for George Hill. They also drafted role players like Hansbrough with late lottery picks.

They're just one example of building a competitive team without resorting to tanking.

[wdleehi]

There is a difference between tankers and those who think the Celtics will not be good.



Tankers want to do anything to lose.



The rest believe the Celtics just are not good enough now to win and rebuilding has arrived.

[nostar]

So unless the East has gotten significantly weaker since last year (I think the opposite is true actually), and we aren't as good as the 8th seed was last year, how are we making the playoffs?

I did some thinking on this a few weeks ago and I sort of felt this way:

MIA - Is on top, at least 1 more year
IND - Got better. Better bench and almost no losses
BKN - Got better. Scary good if they stay healthy
NYK - No change or worse?
CHI - Got Rose back. Boom!

Those are a lock for top-5 barring serious injuries.

There are 3 spots left so you have to look at whether you think we're better than:

CLE - We're not, sorry. Even if Bynum plays zero games they'll win more games than us. Irving is the next big thing and they have 3-4 guys oozing talent. Bynum playing well bumps them into the above tier.

WAS - Probably not, they have more talent overall for sure. We'll see how their coaching goes but they are a dark horse for 7/8 seed.

DET - Their front court will dominate us. We'll just look small. I'm curious about how they will mesh but they'll make playoffs.

ATL - They will be about what they were last season. Millsap was a big pickup and Horford is still a fringe all-star.

The thing is we have to be better than 2 of those teams (DET and ATL if any). I don't know if we are with Rondo and I know we're not without him.

I don't think Milwaukee, Charlotte or Toronto will be better than us but it will be closer than a lot of fans thing. We're in their category this year. We're not the Sixers or the Magic but we're the next tier up from the bottom probably.

I personally don't think we'll make the playoffs. I'm not sure we'll get a top-10 pick, but I think we're very likely going to be sitting it out in June. And I'm comfortable with that this season. Every team needs a refresher year here and there.

[lightspeed5]

we're not better than any east team except philly and maybe orlando.

[Galeto]

My question is:  without high draft picks giving a team the best possible shot to land a franchise player, how is this team supposed to build a title contender with mid to low picks, trades and free agency? 

Do what Indiana did. They grabbed Hibbert and Granger 18th overall in separate drafts, drafted George 10th overall, signed David West in FA, and traded for George Hill. They also drafted role players like Hansbrough with late lottery picks.

They're just one example of building a competitive team without resorting to tanking.

Sounds easy enough. 

Indiana might still not have a championship ceiling.  If George can ascend to absolute superstar status, maybe but they didn't even win 50 games last year.  They've been a big success considering they haven't drafted higher than 10th but they're getting overrated.