Replicating the 07 offseason?

[Fan from VT]

Easy to say that going forward it might by a legitimate strategy to say we should parlay assets for a couple stars like in '07. Might be tougher than you think, with very little consensus on what makes a deal an acceptable one.

Remember '07.

KG was seen as an elite talent but perhaps soft on offense and seen as not clutch, not able to "carry a team." He was also going to be 31, and there were legitimate arguments about whether our assets were worth just a "couple years" of the past-prime of a potentially former start.

Ray was a very good offense/no defense several time all-star who was more on the downside/past prime than KG. Rare all-nba appearances, going to be 32, and from a bad team the year before.

Here's the skinny:

KG-type
12 seasons
Going to be 31
10 All Star
8 All NBA
1 MVP

RA-type
11 Seasons
Going to be 32
7 All Star
2 All NBA

So, going to ’14-’15 (2014 offseason, i.e. next offseason), here's the similar time frame:

11 seasons done = 2003 nba draft
12 seasons done = 2002 nba draft

However, due to advances in health and medicine, maybe we could extend the window a bit and look at '01 as well.
 

Allen-level?: Hilario, Boozer (Low Estimate?), Bosh (High estimate), Tyson Chandler, Joe Johnson, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Tony Parker.
KG-level?: None (Lebron); Wade, Anthony.

So it's really hard to find the same set of circumstances as 2007. Just really rare for a guy like KG to come on the market and not spark a huge bidding war (remember there was not much interest in KG!). Lebron is probably better than KG was, and KG better than Wade/Anthony. Of course it's hard, because with the exception of James, the above list really looks either "over the hill", or "Not a winner", or Both. But that's the point. Hindight is 20/20, but that was the view of KG and Ray as well. 

So, next offeason, trading non-rondo assets for Carmelo and Tyson or Melo and Randolph would be quite similar on the surface to trading for KG/RA. How's that taste? Scary.

Might be more analagous to wait until the 2015 offeason. Then the list is looking more like:

KG?: Lebron, Wade, Melo, Dwight
RA?: Hilario, Boozer, Bosh (High estimate), Tyson Chandler, Joe Johnson, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Tony Parker, Deng, Iguodala.

But Lebron won't be available, and probably not Dwight either unless he looks crippled by injury.

Yikes!

[diconzo]

I think Bosh is a perfect example of a 2007 version of Ray Allen. Allen was making the all star team every year in that period. Not far removed from 2nd all nba team.

[bleedGREENdon]

I would never want bosh in a celtics uni, unless hes 3rd option. I really want to see the possibility of Melo, i doubt he leaves New York. But I see him winning a championship if he came to boson.

[lightspeed5]

we need bosh to be a little past his prime.

steph curry in 10 years would be ray allen when we got him. 3 pointers and ankle problems.

[lightspeed5]

we need bosh to be a little past his prime.

steph curry in 10 years would be ray allen when we got him. 3 pointers and ankle problems.

if stoudemire never had such bad injuries, he'd be the closest thing to KG in my opinion in terms of general impact in the game (not defensively).

i think in the next go around, danny will do it differently. he'll swing for a younger core because the "kg's" and "ray allens" of today are not as impactful yet twice as expensive as the 2007 versions of kg and ray allen.

[GreenEnvy]

Ray Allen in 2007 was a significantly better player than Bosh is now, or probably ever was/will be. And LeBron is the only player on 2007 KG's level. Not even Dwight at full strength is the two-way player or leader KG was. Forget about Wade or Melo. Not even close.

There is no replicating 2007.

We will need to find a different path. It starts with the 2014 lottery.

[LooseCannon]

i think in the next go around, danny will do it differently. he'll swing for a younger core because the "kg's" and "ray allens" of today are not as impactful yet twice as expensive as the 2007 versions of kg and ray allen.

Since there are only so many superstars to go around, I think he'll go after whoever is available.  Sure, he'd prefer someone younger, but age won't be a dealbreaker if he has Hobson's choice.

[LilRip]

i think it could happen again the next offseason, where we trade away hopefully a proven Sully (who would probably be a lesser version of Big Al in terms of promising young prospect), and trade away our 1st round pick after the lottery has been drawn (assuming we fall in the top 10). We could come away with a couple of aging stars to put beside Rondo and Green and immediately be a contender.

Unfortunately, guys of KG's magnitude don't come around very often. Regardless, i could see next offseason going down like that, especially if we don't get a tremendously good pick. However, if we get top 3, i'm sure that the draft will be the way the rebuild will go.

[Galeto]

i think it could happen again the next offseason, where we trade away hopefully a proven Sully (who would probably be a lesser version of Big Al in terms of promising young prospect), and trade away our 1st round pick after the lottery has been drawn (assuming we fall in the top 10). We could come away with a couple of aging stars to put beside Rondo and Green and immediately be a contender.

Unfortunately, guys of KG's magnitude don't come around very often. Regardless, i could see next offseason going down like that, especially if we don't get a tremendously good pick. However, if we get top 3, i'm sure that the draft will be the way the rebuild will go.

Possible contenders as soon as next season?  No way.  What aging stars who would make the Celtics immediate contenders might be available anyway?  Dirk? in a sign and trade  But that's not going to happen and I doubt Dirk/Rondo/Green makes the Celtics championship contenders anyway.  KG was still a top 5 player when he got traded.  No one of that caliber is even going to be remotely possible for the Celtics and not for something around Sully and a pick in the 5-10 range.  I like Sully a lot but as far as trade potential, I doubt he's ever going to come close to the value Jefferson had in 2007.  Without that, there is no way the Celtics can acquire all-nba veteran player.

Me, I'm content to try and fine at least one core, all-nba player through the draft.  After some very enjoyable years, I'm fine with watching some young players develop again.

[Fan from VT]

So some of the reply comments have illustrated some of the points of the original post, namely:

1. Many many people, Celtics fans and league pundits, thought Ray was an overrated, past his prime, one way player when we traded for him. So Bosh is actually a great comp. He's got the similar accolades, similar criticisms, and actually a productive and unique skill set.

2. It's really really rare to be able to do what we did in '07. Maybe impossible. But it's brought up a lot.

3. It's really easy to talk about in vague terms ("i think in the next go around, danny will do it differently. he'll swing for a younger core because the "kg's" and "ray allens" of today are not as impactful yet twice as expensive as the 2007 versions of kg and ray allen"), but where are the specifics: WHO is the "younger core" than 31 and 32 year old KG/RA? WHO are we going to trade for? These statements of trading assets for a "younger core" are easy to make but generally fall apart when asked for real examples, as the real examples are either unavailable or not as good. Also, remember our knowledge of KG and RA is looking back; at the time, both were coming off from leading bad teams, never won, and were past their prime; it was their Celtic years that changed both of their narratives, which is why the Melo comp might be fairly good (though he's not as good as KG).  Frankly, also, KG and RA were more expensive than anyone today because of old CBA rules.

[guava_wrench]

Comparing Melo to KG? Melo should be compared to Ray Allen. Lebron can be compared to KG. Melo isn't even close. He is just a top scorer like Ray.

How many teams have to desperately build around Melo before people stop viewing him as a guy who lead you to a ring. The guy needs to become a complimentary player like Ray did.

[Moranis]

The problem with this analysis is there is no Paul Pierce.  Boston doesn't have a go to dominant scorer that can take over the game offensively or can take the ball to the hole with the game on the line.  Rondo is a great player, but he isn't that player and neither is Jeff Green.

Boston also doesn't have an Al Jefferson developing into an asset worthy of trading for one of those players.  No Al Jeff no KG trade.


EDIT: I realize Boston could in theory trade for the #1 go to scorer, but Rondo doesn't fit the mold of recent title team requirements.  You need that big guy that can score, rebound, and defend a bit; you need a go to/take it to the hole scorer on the wing; and you need shooters to space the floor.  Boston had that with KG, PP, and Allen.  The Lakers had that with Pau/Bynum, Kobe, and a smattering of shooters.  The Mavs had that with Dirk, Terry, and Marion/Kidd.  The Heat have that with Bosh, Lebron, Wade (and guys like Miller, Allen, etc.).  San Antonio, Memphis, Indiana, and Chicago (with Rose) all fit this mold.

Look what happened to OKC when Westbrook went down.  They still had the big guy (Ibaka) and the shooters (Durant & Martin), but they lost that go to/take it to the hole scorer (Westbrook) and they couldn't score at all and got dominated by a clearly inferior team with less talent overall. 

The only way Boston can get to this type of team again without getting lucky in the draft is by acquiring all 3 player types as no one on the roster fits the mold of the 3 required pieces.  There is no dominant big guy.  There is no go to/take it to the hole scorer.  There are no dominant outside shooters.

That means Rondo and Green both likely need to go as they will be necessary pieces to acquire the required players.

[jambr380]

I think Bosh is a perfect example of a 2007 version of Ray Allen. Allen was making the all star team every year in that period. Not far removed from 2nd all nba team.

I would be very happy to acquire Bosh...that is unless Olynyk turns into a similar version of him - then we need more of a banger...and I really don't know who that would be. I guess we can all be REALLY hopeful and see what happens to Sully and Olynyk.

[LilRip]

i think it could happen again the next offseason, where we trade away hopefully a proven Sully (who would probably be a lesser version of Big Al in terms of promising young prospect), and trade away our 1st round pick after the lottery has been drawn (assuming we fall in the top 10). We could come away with a couple of aging stars to put beside Rondo and Green and immediately be a contender.

Unfortunately, guys of KG's magnitude don't come around very often. Regardless, i could see next offseason going down like that, especially if we don't get a tremendously good pick. However, if we get top 3, i'm sure that the draft will be the way the rebuild will go.

Possible contenders as soon as next season?  No way.  What aging stars who would make the Celtics immediate contenders might be available anyway?  Dirk? in a sign and trade  But that's not going to happen and I doubt Dirk/Rondo/Green makes the Celtics championship contenders anyway.  KG was still a top 5 player when he got traded.  No one of that caliber is even going to be remotely possible for the Celtics and not for something around Sully and a pick in the 5-10 range.  I like Sully a lot but as far as trade potential, I doubt he's ever going to come close to the value Jefferson had in 2007.  Without that, there is no way the Celtics can acquire all-nba veteran player.

Me, I'm content to try and fine at least one core, all-nba player through the draft.  After some very enjoyable years, I'm fine with watching some young players develop again.

that's why i said COULD. honestly, before 07, i would have thought it impossible that we could have someone of KG's caliber for Big Al and spare parts. admittedly though, i don't have a particular NBA vet in mind when i say we "could trade for someone".

and FWIW, i would want to rebuild through the draft this time too. I think this year's team is bad enough to land a very good pick, and i trust DA's drafting skills to make the right choice. If that happens, I wouldn't mind shipping Rondo out too to a win-now team with an extremely promising but young prospect, kind of like the reverse 07 where we're the ones who get Big Al (in the form of Drummond maybe? lol) and give up the allstar in Rondo. At least we'd already have Wiggins (or whoever 2014 pick) to go alongside the Big Al equivalent, as opposed to just being stuck with a Big Al equivalent and no help.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Maybe Danny`s developing a new championship mould? I mean how conventional was a big 3 of KG, Ray and Paul Pierce at the time Danny put it together. Consider for example if we traded our 2014 pick and filler for Melo, then drafted a ready to contribute big with the Nets pick, what we would have in terms of a really tough line up to match up against. Rondo-Bradley-Green-Melo-competent post defender/rebounder anyone?