2013 CB Draft : Draft Thread : VOTING ENDS 8:00PM EST TONIGHT

[nickagneta]

I think Bogut is the first of a bunch of players that might be selected this round that have mid 2nd round or higher talent if healthy but never seem to be healthy. If Bogut is healthy, and he appeared to be making strides towards that end at the end of last year, its a great pick. Problem is come voting time, all one will here is "Bogut is made of glass" and you have to overcome that. Yoki seemed to do okay with Bogut on his DKC team. In this exercise, we will see how well Bogut get received.

Just look up IPs arguments from two years ago Yoki.

3 years wasn't it?

Basically look at 2010. Andrew Bogut was an elite franchise level player in 2010.

Two years ago. Summer of 2011 the year before Lebron won his first title. You had Bogut and Amare and Derrick Williams and Harden and Lowry and basically every argument Rondo and I used against your team came true except Harden blew up into a star. And we had the DPOY, the MVP, the Finals MVP, Paul Millsap, Brandon Jennings, Wes Matthews and guys that had good 2nd halves of the season and playoffs like Mike Miller, Gary Neal and Boris Diaw.

Oh well, you lose some, you lose some. It happens

[rondoallaturca]

DeAndre isn't without his flaws, but he has strengths, too.

Pros to DJ: Athletic, healthy, rim protector, rebounder at both ends, shoots 64% from field (product of taking shots close to the rim, dunks, putbacks, alleyoops etc), low foul-rate for big man (3.4 per 36)

Cons to DJ: Free throw shooting, awareness issues at times (young player), no shooting range

The West is loaded with froncourt players and combos and I needed to make sure I had a player to help defend them. My bigs each have their own place on offense, too. They can both run the floor, Ibaka has the shooting range, Jordan can bang down low to establish position for offensive boards, putbacks, or lobs. My team is being built on defense first that leads to transition offense. Having two defensive minded bigs that can run the floor is an important part of that strategy.

I think Deandre Jordan is a fine fit alongside your team, but I'm curious in seeing if anyone else in the entire round even considered this dude.

[dark_lord]

I think Bogut is the first of a bunch of players that might be selected this round that have mid 2nd round or higher talent if healthy but never seem to be healthy. If Bogut is healthy, and he appeared to be making strides towards that end at the end of last year, its a great pick. Problem is come voting time, all one will here is "Bogut is made of glass" and you have to overcome that. Yoki seemed to do okay with Bogut on his DKC team. In this exercise, we will see how well Bogut get received.

Just look up IPs arguments from two years ago Yoki.

3 years wasn't it?

Basically look at 2010. Andrew Bogut was an elite franchise level player in 2010.

I'm good with Bogut.

The only thing I'm asking here is consistency. If we're going to attack Bogut's injury history HARD, then we attack the others who had the same if not had worse injury histories than him.

It seems that Bogut is the only one who's not getting the "glass half full" treatment here when it comes to injured prone players, and that has to change.

This isn't true, other players have their value discounted by injury all the time.

Bogut's injury history is more severe, more long term, and more recent than most of the other players you bring up.

He only played 1100 minutes (including 12 playoff games which accounts for nearly half that total) this year after playing only 12 games the prior year.

its not like he picked bogut early in the draft.  this is the 4th round.  honestly, there is great quality in that pick, especially when you consider its the 4th round and he still has a few more picks in this round to balance out his roster.

i like the pick yoki

[ronaldo943]

With 4.3 I'm taking DANNY GREEN.

Not the best SG available, but the only one who shot over .400 in the playoffs.

[Kane3387]

You guys don't understand Enes Kanter. I understand, its a big, bold league out there, and its tough to have a handle on everyone who is playing. Here is what the writers at the SBNation Blog slcDunk have to say about him:

Kanter ... Without Limitations

With Kanter, we have to look at both the Millsap Doctrine and examine any limiting factors ... because he has played only limited minutes thus far.

Well, look at Kanter's shots last season:

    At Rim: 184 shots — 65% FG — 40% assisted
    3-9 Feet: 92 shots — 45% FG — 56% assisted
    10-15 Feet: 50 shots — 40% FG — 85% assisted
    16-23 Feet: 52 shots — 46% FG — 88% assisted

That, friends, is one of the most beautiful sets of shot data I have ever seen. He's above average from all areas of the court. At the same time, he takes significantly more shots from the most effective spots. This is one of the big things that hurts players ... taking more shots from lower percentage areas. Kanter has not had that problem at all to date.

Smart players get good at mid-range jumpers to open up opportunities to score at the rim. Less smart players get good at mid-range jumpers so they can jack up a bunch of them. So far, thankfully, Kanter fits the smart scorer profile.

About 50% of his shots are at the rim, about 25% close, and about 25% from the entire 10-23 foot range. Additionally, Kanter focuses his jumper in drive and kick situations (look at the number of assisted shots) rather than jacking up contested jumpers just because. At the same time, you can see that he is fully capable of creating shots for himself on his own ... look at that lower assist percentage in close.

Basically, as long as you have guys who can drive and kick, Kanter's scoring is 100% scalable given bigger minutes and a bigger role. So sit back and smile, because we have Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke on our team.

There are no limiting factors here.

In fact, I think we have a perfect Super Millsap Doctrine candidate (a guy whose production exceeds when given more minutes). Here's why:

    Kanter's shooting improved in all areas from his rookie to 2nd season. This fits the profile of a player who does even better in year 3.
    Kanter has already generally done well when given more minutes. And because we've watched the Jazz the past two years, we know we don't have to worry so much about the correlation/causation questions.
    Trey Burke excels at getting big-men easy layups and dunks down low. He did it in college. He did it today to Gobert. He's going to do it for Kanter this year. He's going to get more shots assisted in the paint, and his FG% there will reap the benefits.
    I'll be honest, this last point is a mystery at this point. But there's been a bit of chatter of Kanter going out to the 3-point line. I've seen him hit near half-court shots in warm-ups. He shot 14-25 from three at his pre-draft combine. There's a difference between hitting them in drills and in games, however. A big difference. But let's be honest: if Kanter can give us Memo 3-point shooting, it's over.

Even excluding the final point, it's pretty reasonable to hope that Kanter becomes a monster-scoring big man.
Other Areas

There's more to basketball than just scoring however, even if a guy is scoring 20+ ppg at a 60% True Shooting clip. His rebounding, of course, is good. But his defensive rebounding took a bit of a dip last year, and it will be a huge benefit to see it get back to his rookie rate. But that's small compared to some other areas that he needs to improve if the Jazz are going to be better than a 30-win team.

His turnovers have been very, very high. That has to improve. As does his passing. 1 assist per game (his per-36 minute assist stat last year) is not what the team needs. The good news is that his passing is already showing a major trend of improvement (300% higher last year compared to his rookie year). But there's still a long, LONG way to go. He's going to command double-teams, and he's going to have 3-4 teammates who can spot up effectively. He has to be able to find them.

And I'm curious about his defense. His steals and blocks improved from his rookie year. Hopefully that continues. He has also shown flashes of terrific 1-on-1 defense, against both scrubs and elite players. But it's easier to play great defense for a possession or two. It's a lot harder to do it again and again and again over 35+ minutes every game. It is going to take work to see him continue to be an effective defender.
Summary

Enes Kanter will be one of the most important players on the Utah Jazz this year. Kanter's ability to help the Jazz be as good as possible lay in the following eight key areas:

    Maintaining both good shooting percentages AND smart distribution of shot locations
    The Trey Burke effect getting assisted close shots
    Increase in assists as he finds spot-up shooters and cutters off double-teams
    Maintaining his improved steal and block rates
    Cutting the turnovers
    Maintaining his strong 1-on-1 defense over 35+ minutes vs. 15 minutes
    A return to his rookie defensive rebounding rate
    The 3-point shot

As many have already said, I'm so excited to see what Enes Kanter turns out to be next year. Very good appears to be his absolute floor.

IP I would love to make some type of TP bet based on whether Kanter or Favors will have better numbers next year.

I would prefer to make a TP bet that the Mods will trade Kanter for a better player and better future picks going back to the mod squad.

Hahah can I get in on this bet please?

I'm with rondo on this one. Kanter ain't finishing up this draft in Boston. That team has no interest in team of the future. Nor should they with Irving and gasol. Kanter isnt ready to play big minutes on a contender tho.

[Evantime34]

You guys don't understand Enes Kanter. I understand, its a big, bold league out there, and its tough to have a handle on everyone who is playing. Here is what the writers at the SBNation Blog slcDunk have to say about him:

Kanter ... Without Limitations

With Kanter, we have to look at both the Millsap Doctrine and examine any limiting factors ... because he has played only limited minutes thus far.

Well, look at Kanter's shots last season:

    At Rim: 184 shots — 65% FG — 40% assisted
    3-9 Feet: 92 shots — 45% FG — 56% assisted
    10-15 Feet: 50 shots — 40% FG — 85% assisted
    16-23 Feet: 52 shots — 46% FG — 88% assisted

That, friends, is one of the most beautiful sets of shot data I have ever seen. He's above average from all areas of the court. At the same time, he takes significantly more shots from the most effective spots. This is one of the big things that hurts players ... taking more shots from lower percentage areas. Kanter has not had that problem at all to date.

Smart players get good at mid-range jumpers to open up opportunities to score at the rim. Less smart players get good at mid-range jumpers so they can jack up a bunch of them. So far, thankfully, Kanter fits the smart scorer profile.

About 50% of his shots are at the rim, about 25% close, and about 25% from the entire 10-23 foot range. Additionally, Kanter focuses his jumper in drive and kick situations (look at the number of assisted shots) rather than jacking up contested jumpers just because. At the same time, you can see that he is fully capable of creating shots for himself on his own ... look at that lower assist percentage in close.

Basically, as long as you have guys who can drive and kick, Kanter's scoring is 100% scalable given bigger minutes and a bigger role. So sit back and smile, because we have Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke on our team.

There are no limiting factors here.

In fact, I think we have a perfect Super Millsap Doctrine candidate (a guy whose production exceeds when given more minutes). Here's why:

    Kanter's shooting improved in all areas from his rookie to 2nd season. This fits the profile of a player who does even better in year 3.
    Kanter has already generally done well when given more minutes. And because we've watched the Jazz the past two years, we know we don't have to worry so much about the correlation/causation questions.
    Trey Burke excels at getting big-men easy layups and dunks down low. He did it in college. He did it today to Gobert. He's going to do it for Kanter this year. He's going to get more shots assisted in the paint, and his FG% there will reap the benefits.
    I'll be honest, this last point is a mystery at this point. But there's been a bit of chatter of Kanter going out to the 3-point line. I've seen him hit near half-court shots in warm-ups. He shot 14-25 from three at his pre-draft combine. There's a difference between hitting them in drills and in games, however. A big difference. But let's be honest: if Kanter can give us Memo 3-point shooting, it's over.

Even excluding the final point, it's pretty reasonable to hope that Kanter becomes a monster-scoring big man.
Other Areas

There's more to basketball than just scoring however, even if a guy is scoring 20+ ppg at a 60% True Shooting clip. His rebounding, of course, is good. But his defensive rebounding took a bit of a dip last year, and it will be a huge benefit to see it get back to his rookie rate. But that's small compared to some other areas that he needs to improve if the Jazz are going to be better than a 30-win team.

His turnovers have been very, very high. That has to improve. As does his passing. 1 assist per game (his per-36 minute assist stat last year) is not what the team needs. The good news is that his passing is already showing a major trend of improvement (300% higher last year compared to his rookie year). But there's still a long, LONG way to go. He's going to command double-teams, and he's going to have 3-4 teammates who can spot up effectively. He has to be able to find them.

And I'm curious about his defense. His steals and blocks improved from his rookie year. Hopefully that continues. He has also shown flashes of terrific 1-on-1 defense, against both scrubs and elite players. But it's easier to play great defense for a possession or two. It's a lot harder to do it again and again and again over 35+ minutes every game. It is going to take work to see him continue to be an effective defender.
Summary

Enes Kanter will be one of the most important players on the Utah Jazz this year. Kanter's ability to help the Jazz be as good as possible lay in the following eight key areas:

    Maintaining both good shooting percentages AND smart distribution of shot locations
    The Trey Burke effect getting assisted close shots
    Increase in assists as he finds spot-up shooters and cutters off double-teams
    Maintaining his improved steal and block rates
    Cutting the turnovers
    Maintaining his strong 1-on-1 defense over 35+ minutes vs. 15 minutes
    A return to his rookie defensive rebounding rate
    The 3-point shot

As many have already said, I'm so excited to see what Enes Kanter turns out to be next year. Very good appears to be his absolute floor.

IP I would love to make some type of TP bet based on whether Kanter or Favors will have better numbers next year.

I would prefer to make a TP bet that the Mods will trade Kanter for a better player and better future picks going back to the mod squad.

Hahah can I get in on this bet please?

I'm with rondo on this one. Kanter ain't finishing up this draft in Boston. That team has no interest in team of the future. Nor should they with Irving and gasol. Kanter isnt ready to play big minutes on a contender tho.

In that case, don't be fooled by the snake oil salesman of the Mod squad, they are trying to trick you.

[BleedGreen1989]

With 4.3 I'm taking DANNY GREEN.

Not the best SG available, but the only one who shot over .400 in the playoffs.

Ronaldo's love with Danny doesn't end in the DKC timeline

[nickagneta]

With 4.3 I'm taking DANNY GREEN.

Not the best SG available, but the only one who shot over .400 in the playoffs.

He was definitely the BGA..Best Green Available.

[indeedproceed]

I think Bogut is the first of a bunch of players that might be selected this round that have mid 2nd round or higher talent if healthy but never seem to be healthy. If Bogut is healthy, and he appeared to be making strides towards that end at the end of last year, its a great pick. Problem is come voting time, all one will here is "Bogut is made of glass" and you have to overcome that. Yoki seemed to do okay with Bogut on his DKC team. In this exercise, we will see how well Bogut get received.

Just look up IPs arguments from two years ago Yoki.

3 years wasn't it?

Basically look at 2010. Andrew Bogut was an elite franchise level player in 2010.

I'm good with Bogut.

The only thing I'm asking here is consistency. If we're going to attack Bogut's injury history HARD, then we attack the others who had the same if not had worse injury histories than him.

It seems that Bogut is the only one who's not getting the "glass half full" treatment here when it comes to injured prone players, and that has to change.

Then you ought to convince people. Saying its not fair isn't gonna make any stroke their beard thoughtfully and say, "Well shucks, I guess I have been judging Andrew Bogut unfairly." You've gotta come up with compelling evidence (or, in lieu of that, compelling argument) that this year will be different than 5 of the last 6 years in which injuries have derailed Andrew Bogut's season.

Its not easy, but look up stuff, look for interviews, get a good bench. It can be done, probably.

[Kane3387]

I think Bogut is the first of a bunch of players that might be selected this round that have mid 2nd round or higher talent if healthy but never seem to be healthy. If Bogut is healthy, and he appeared to be making strides towards that end at the end of last year, its a great pick. Problem is come voting time, all one will here is "Bogut is made of glass" and you have to overcome that. Yoki seemed to do okay with Bogut on his DKC team. In this exercise, we will see how well Bogut get received.

Just look up IPs arguments from two years ago Yoki.

3 years wasn't it?

Basically look at 2010. Andrew Bogut was an elite franchise level player in 2010.

I'm good with Bogut.

The only thing I'm asking here is consistency. If we're going to attack Bogut's injury history HARD, then we attack the others who had the same if not had worse injury histories than him.

It seems that Bogut is the only one who's not getting the "glass half full" treatment here when it comes to injured prone players, and that has to change.

This isn't true, other players have their value discounted by injury all the time.

Bogut's injury history is more severe, more long term, and more recent than most of the other players you bring up.

He only played 1100 minutes (including 12 playoff games which accounts for nearly half that total) this year after playing only 12 games the prior year.

its not like he picked bogut early in the draft.  this is the 4th round.  honestly, there is great quality in that pick, especially when you consider its the 4th round and he still has a few more picks in this round to balance out his roster.

i like the pick yoki

If granger can go in the third then I can see bogut as a fourth honestly. 

Is bogut 32? Or 31?  ( inside joke meant for walker wiggles pleasure)

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I think Bogut is the first of a bunch of players that might be selected this round that have mid 2nd round or higher talent if healthy but never seem to be healthy. If Bogut is healthy, and he appeared to be making strides towards that end at the end of last year, its a great pick. Problem is come voting time, all one will here is "Bogut is made of glass" and you have to overcome that. Yoki seemed to do okay with Bogut on his DKC team. In this exercise, we will see how well Bogut get received.

Just look up IPs arguments from two years ago Yoki.

3 years wasn't it?

Basically look at 2010. Andrew Bogut was an elite franchise level player in 2010.

I'm good with Bogut.

The only thing I'm asking here is consistency. If we're going to attack Bogut's injury history HARD, then we attack the others who had the same if not had worse injury histories than him.

It seems that Bogut is the only one who's not getting the "glass half full" treatment here when it comes to injured prone players, and that has to change.

This isn't true, other players have their value discounted by injury all the time.

Bogut's injury history is more severe, more long term, and more recent than most of the other players you bring up.

He only played 1100 minutes (including 12 playoff games which accounts for nearly half that total) this year after playing only 12 games the prior year.

How about picked in the 4th round, that's pretty good value.

More severe? The elbow is fine, did not see anything wrong with it.

The ankle is "80%" and he has the entire offseason to heal it more. And he played great and monstrous at 80% ankle.

I'm not worried about Bogut long term. He's healthy coming into the season.

[pearljammer10]

Wow. Very surprised to see Bogut make it to round 4. Nice pick up there.

[McHales Pits]

DeAndre isn't without his flaws, but he has strengths, too.

Pros to DJ: Athletic, healthy, rim protector, rebounder at both ends, shoots 64% from field (product of taking shots close to the rim, dunks, putbacks, alleyoops etc), low foul-rate for big man (3.4 per 36)

Cons to DJ: Free throw shooting, awareness issues at times (young player), no shooting range

The West is loaded with froncourt players and combos and I needed to make sure I had a player to help defend them. My bigs each have their own place on offense, too. They can both run the floor, Ibaka has the shooting range, Jordan can bang down low to establish position for offensive boards, putbacks, or lobs. My team is being built on defense first that leads to transition offense. Having two defensive minded bigs that can run the floor is an important part of that strategy.

I think Deandre Jordan is a fine fit alongside your team, but I'm curious in seeing if anyone else in the entire round even considered this dude.

I don't disagree that it was early to take him, but I couldn't find any trade offers I liked. Also, there are a lot of teams in the East who need big men and he was one of the better ones left available. My next pick isn't until 5.10 so thats 35 picks that would have to pass before I'd have a chance again. I didn't want to miss out on him because I have to contend with all these front courts defensively.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

With pick 4.4, the Mile High City Nuggets selects.

Wilson Chandler

Can score, can defend, can run in transition, very underrated.

Interesting that he is listed at SG on ESPN.com, I think I like him as a very big SG.

[Fafnir]

DeAndre isn't without his flaws, but he has strengths, too.

Pros to DJ: Athletic, healthy, rim protector, rebounder at both ends, shoots 64% from field (product of taking shots close to the rim, dunks, putbacks, alleyoops etc), low foul-rate for big man (3.4 per 36)

Cons to DJ: Free throw shooting, awareness issues at times (young player), no shooting range

The West is loaded with froncourt players and combos and I needed to make sure I had a player to help defend them. My bigs each have their own place on offense, too. They can both run the floor, Ibaka has the shooting range, Jordan can bang down low to establish position for offensive boards, putbacks, or lobs. My team is being built on defense first that leads to transition offense. Having two defensive minded bigs that can run the floor is an important part of that strategy.

I think Deandre Jordan is a fine fit alongside your team, but I'm curious in seeing if anyone else in the entire round even considered this dude.

I don't disagree that it was early to take him, but I couldn't find any trade offers I liked. Also, there are a lot of teams in the East who need big men and he was one of the better ones left available. My next pick isn't until 5.10 so thats 35 picks that would have to pass before I'd have a chance again. I didn't want to miss out on him because I have to contend with all these front courts defensively.

I'm shocked that you didn't go the same route as the real life Heat. Get journeyman big men next to your star one and have LBJ play PF with shooting.

Its been a proven winning formula two years running now IRL.