Author Topic: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery  (Read 5295 times)

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Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« on: August 13, 2013, 02:42:24 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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http://www.nba.com/2013/news/08/12/morning-tip-steve-kerr-guest-column-fixing-the-nba-lottery/index.html?ls=nbahpsplit2

It's really nice to see somebody who is relatively well known in the NBA world and actually plugged into the game somewhat (he was a GM for a few years) speaking out about the problems with the lottery system.

Quote
In this world, a team like Utah -- which battled the entire season and came up just shy of the playoffs -- would have a 5-in-14 shot of picking in the top 5. I think that would be a just reward for competing all season long and trying to win at a high level. Under the current rules, Utah -- in the 13th slot -- had a 0.6 percent chance of winning the lottery and a 2.2 chance of picking in the top 3. (In other words, what were the chances of Utah moving up from the 13th slot? About as much chance as Lloyd Christmas had of ending up with Mary Swanson in "Dumb and Dumber".) As for the really bad teams whose odds would suddenly be much worse to get a top 5 pick? Tough luck. No more handouts. And if you don't get lucky, make sure you draft well when you're selecting eighth or ninth. Since the new CBA is about smart management, not money, winning out, drafting well and player development has to factor in for every team. (And hey, if Brooklyn has to pay an $80 million tax bill for trying to win a title, with much of that tax money going to the bad teams, let's penalize the bad teams that don't TRY to win.)

That sounds GREAT to me.

I especially like his suggestion that the NBA employ some economists / analysts (e.g. the famous Nate Silver) to devise a system that creates proper incentives for rebuilding teams.
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2013, 04:08:14 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Yup. Every team that doesnt make it in the playoffs gets a shot at The top 5 picks. That way teams wont tank on purpose play hard for pride and the fans.

Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2013, 04:16:37 PM »

Online Moranis

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Don't like it at all.  Most of the time bad teams are just bad and making it harder for them to get good is not good for the NBA.
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #3 on: August 13, 2013, 04:22:14 PM »

Offline Who

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I think TV revenue should be split proportionally to W-L records.

Punish the crap out of teams that don't try to win.

Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #4 on: August 13, 2013, 05:00:59 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Good for Steve Kerr.  There should not be an incemtive for losing.
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #5 on: August 13, 2013, 05:05:11 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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I think TV revenue should be split proportionally to W-L records.

Punish the crap out of teams that don't try to win.

Don't make it proportional.  Make it so that there isn't much of a difference in revenue for title contenders and non-contenders that barely make it into the playoffs, but there is a huge drop-off between simply making the playoffs and not, so that teams see a string of first-round exits as more desirable than it currently is.
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2013, 06:03:15 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Don't like it at all.  Most of the time bad teams are just bad and making it harder for them to get good is not good for the NBA.

What's worse -- punishing bad teams for being really bad, or punishing mediocre to decent teams for being average?
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2013, 06:06:54 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Giving mediocre teams a better shot at potentially great players, or giving more money to playoff teams, just keeps the bad teams bad.

How often is tanking really a problem? I bet nobody can name more than a handful of obvious tank jobs since the lottery began. This draft is supposedly historically great. Every draft is not created equal. You won't see multiple teams tanking for Kenyon Martin or Andrea Bargnani or Kwame Brown.

By punishing the bottom-10 teams, you are essentially saying you need to be perfect in your picks with less revenue. Most of those teams have a hard enough time attracting free agents, usually having to overpay them to sign there.

If modifying the lottery so the teams with the worst records have an even less chance at the top pick, you must be in favor of contraction. There would be no reason for anyone to buy tickets or watch teams like the Bobcats. Granted they have done a poor job drafting, but they never had the top pick when they clearly deserved it a few times.

I don't think tanking is a problem in the NBA, and other leagues don't seem to have a problem either, even when the NFL and MLB don't have lottery systems. Colts clearly tanked for Luck, and I'm sure teams like the Nationals tanked for Harper/Strasburg and the Mariners for Griffey, Jr./ARod. Don't hear fans of those leagues whining like NBA fans do.

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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2013, 06:10:24 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I think TV revenue should be split proportionally to W-L records.

Punish the crap out of teams that don't try to win.

Don't make it proportional.  Make it so that there isn't much of a difference in revenue for title contenders and non-contenders that barely make it into the playoffs, but there is a huge drop-off between simply making the playoffs and not, so that teams see a string of first-round exits as more desirable than it currently is.
Owners will vote for changes in the lottery to determine how to get bad to good, because all teams that are good eventually get bad, but I doubt they will vote to even the playing field financially by taking even more money out of each others pockets as an incentive to try to win. They had a difficult enough time trying to even the financial playing field and taking money from the players with the last work stoppage Don't see them taking more money from each other just to undo what they have already accomplished.


Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #9 on: August 13, 2013, 06:12:37 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I do like some of Kerr's ideas and the general premise that the current structure has promoted tanking as a way to get better rather than just good management, though I guess the decision to tank, in some ways, due to the current structure, is good management. But it really shouldn't be.

Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #10 on: August 13, 2013, 06:27:21 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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How often is tanking really a problem? I bet nobody can name more than a handful of obvious tank jobs since the lottery began. This draft is supposedly historically great. Every draft is not created equal. You won't see multiple teams tanking for Kenyon Martin or Andrea Bargnani or Kwame Brown.

I guess it depends on your definition of tank.

In my view, you don't have to look any further than this off-season to see teams like the Jazz happily let major free agents walk and use that cap space to take on deadweight salary just for the sake of getting a 1st round pick in the future, or the Sixers trading an All-Star point guard for an injured rookie big man and a probable lottery pick next season, or, for Heaven's sake, the Celtics trading Pierce and Garnett for a bunch of garbage and some probable mid to late 1st round picks over the next few years.

The problem isn't blatant tanking so much as it's the fact that for teams that are just pretty good but not great, the smartest move based on the incentives that the current system creates is to try to get worse in the short term in order to accrue prospects in the future.  So you see a lot of teams intentionally moving backwards.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #11 on: August 13, 2013, 06:41:31 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Tanking looks like a good idea to many people because of the belief that only championships matter.  It's sort of a venture capitalist mindset, where you feel okay with bankrupting nine companies that were profitable before you got your hooks into them and expanded them beyond sustainability because you hit it so big on the tenth one that you make up for your losses on the first nine failures.

Trying to punish tankers won't really work.  Decrease the chance of hope for a desperate team and they will still cling to the long-shot lottery ticket because they are desperate.  What you need to do is to create greater incentive for teams to be satisfied with being a pretty good but not great team.

I'm not sure how to go about it, but one idea I have is giving an "improvement bonus" in the form of salary cap flexibility for teams that improve,  Maybe for teams under the luxury cap who had fewer than 50 wins the previous season, if they increase their win total by two or more, the biannual exception becomes an annual exception.  Or they get the ability to combine the BAE and the MLE so that teams headed in the right direction (but aren't already at the top) have an advantage in the free agent market.
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Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #12 on: August 13, 2013, 06:48:30 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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Don't like it at all.  Most of the time bad teams are just bad and making it harder for them to get good is not good for the NBA.
Agreed.

Some teams don't have much talent. Effort isn't going to change that. People can easily delude themselves into thinking that effort is #1, but it isn't.

I could see a rule that said that if you win the lottery this year, you can't be top 3 next year. The only problem though with such a rule is that you could win in a year when the talent is really low.

Ultimately, there really is not a problem with the current system. Even if you tank, all you can guarantee is the 4th pick. And I don't see players trying to lose.

Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #13 on: August 13, 2013, 06:59:49 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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I think that fully developing the D league to a complete 30 team system, lowering the NBA eligibility age to sixteen,  eliminating the draft altogether, and signing incoming rookies as free agents is the best solution.
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PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Steve Kerr Wants to Change the Lottery
« Reply #14 on: August 13, 2013, 07:22:42 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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How often is tanking really a problem? I bet nobody can name more than a handful of obvious tank jobs since the lottery began. This draft is supposedly historically great. Every draft is not created equal. You won't see multiple teams tanking for Kenyon Martin or Andrea Bargnani or Kwame Brown.

I guess it depends on your definition of tank.

In my view, you don't have to look any further than this off-season to see teams like the Jazz happily let major free agents walk and use that cap space to take on deadweight salary just for the sake of getting a 1st round pick in the future, or the Sixers trading an All-Star point guard for an injured rookie big man and a probable lottery pick next season, or, for Heaven's sake, the Celtics trading Pierce and Garnett for a bunch of garbage and some probable mid to late 1st round picks over the next few years.

The problem isn't blatant tanking so much as it's the fact that for teams that are just pretty good but not great, the smartest move based on the incentives that the current system creates is to try to get worse in the short term in order to accrue prospects in the future.  So you see a lot of teams intentionally moving backwards.

The thing is though Pho, talent in the NBA is a zero-sum game: every player discarded by the teams you're talking about was acquired by another.

So if your concern is the overall quality of play in the league, in some sense it can't be affected by what you're talking about.

In fact, if bad teams are trying to get worse and selling talent at a discount to better teams, this will actually improve the quality of play when it really counts - in the playoffs. For example, the Nets are now another serious threat in the East because of the Celtics' "tanking." The East is going to be a lot more interesting to watch this year, right?

Now maybe you want parity - fine. Even there, however, did Jefferson and Milsap leaving the Jazz reduce parity or increase it? Both of those guys went to worse teams, and now Kanter and Favors will get the minutes they were starved of playing behind those two. I'd argue that the Jazz, the Bobcats and the Hawks will together have a higher quality of play than without those moves. And aren't the Pelicans going to be much better with Holiday - maybe a playoff contender?

Now, if you're talking about coaches or players intentionally playing worse, that's a different story. But the player movement you're talking about doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing.

PS I actually don't think that the Jazz moves were about "tanking," but that's another discussion.