Author Topic: Jeff Green Concerns  (Read 24457 times)

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Jeff Green Concerns
« on: August 06, 2013, 02:09:36 AM »

Offline rasta1

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I kind of have a few concerns regarding building around Jeff Green

I understand he spent a lot of time playing out of position. But does the shift from the 4 to the 3 really make that much of a difference? I feel like he might be a bit too sloppy to play the 3..then again, the 3 is a rather weak position in the NBA considering that the best 3's are now playing the 4

I agree, he is an above average defender

My concern however, is that

1) He really hasn't passed the eye test.
He can score but his scoring is primarily from uncontrolled drives for a layup...which he really isn't the best at finishing. Basically he lacks footwork and basically goes into the basket like a truck

Next season I expect a lot of offensive fouls called on Green because teams know it's coming and there isn't much else to defend on the Celtics

Also with respect to the eye test thing, I think he is the second most awkward offensive player on the celtics next to Crawford. It really sometimes feels like he has no idea what he's doing on the offensive end

2) People complain that he is too passive.
Now the fact of the matter is. With Kevin Garnett and all of the veterans on the team, he still remained very passive last year. With no more KG pushing him around/motivating him like KG did with other players, are we bound to see passive JG continue?

We are going to get very little offensive output realistically from the 1 and 2 spots, at least from what we saw last year [Rondo and Bradley aren't likely to be lighting it up in scoring...albeit I am hoping they can], we can't just have Jeff disappear for extended periods of time like he would do last season


TL;DR: Jeff Green is too awkward to be our main offensive option; if KG can't make him aggressive, who can?

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2013, 02:40:10 AM »

Offline Galeto

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Green didn't play out of position, not offensively at least.  He benefited immensely by going up against true PF matchups because of Pierce's presence.  His offensive numbers were vastly better at PF than SF.  With Pierce goine, he's not going to have that luxury.  Even if Wallace starts, the small forward is still going to guard Green. If Green is going to maintain the scoring and efficiency numbers he put up in the second half, he's going to have to develop the ability to go left or counter moves that enable him to get back to his right hand. 

In the same sample size in which he was a true small forward, he didn't look at that special. 

Green was a really good finisher on drives.  That hadn't been the case in OKC or in the first third of last season but it improved dramatically. 

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2013, 02:56:28 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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The most baffling thing to me about Green is this: in college he was viewed as a decent (or even very good) playmaker.

Why hasn't that translated to the pros? It makes sense to have few assists playing with Durant/Westbrook, but I wonder whether Stevens can find a way to resurrect that aspect of his game. Green would be so much more effective if he could create shots for others.

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2013, 03:14:09 AM »

Offline timobusa

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Green is gonna be just fine.

He is a very good finisher. He does the awkward wrong foot lay up like Rondo, but that's just his preference I guess. He made a bunch of those lay ups last season.
He's almost automatic in the corner three pointers which is great for 3's and stretch 4's.
He draws fouls, he's a good free throw shooter.
The only concern with him, is his mentality, he has all the tools, and we've seen those last season, I hope he picks up where he's left off.

I don't think hes gonna be a super star. Although I hope I'm wrong on that.

But I think he could be a good #2 or #3 option in a good team. Hopefully that team is the Celtics in a couple of years.


Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2013, 05:45:44 AM »

Offline clover

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Green didn't play out of position, not offensively at least.  He benefited immensely by going up against true PF matchups because of Pierce's presence.  His offensive numbers were vastly better at PF than SF.  With Pierce goine, he's not going to have that luxury.  Even if Wallace starts, the small forward is still going to guard Green. If Green is going to maintain the scoring and efficiency numbers he put up in the second half, he's going to have to develop the ability to go left or counter moves that enable him to get back to his right hand. 

In the same sample size in which he was a true small forward, he didn't look at that special. 

Green was a really good finisher on drives.  That hadn't been the case in OKC or in the first third of last season but it improved dramatically.

I thought it was exactly the opposite the first season he was with the C's?

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2013, 07:12:54 AM »

Offline moiso

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I agree that things are going to be a lot more difficult for Green with the extra attention he will be drawing.  When the defense doesn't pay a whole lot of attention to him he has a few simple things that he can do to score fairly efficiently.  But I don't think it will be as easy for him this year, and as of now he lacks the counter moves and playmaking that would greatly benefit him in facing the extra attention.

If Green is supposed to be our top scorer than we are definitely not going to be very good, which is fine for the next year.

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2013, 07:19:43 AM »

Offline 2short

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consistency is my biggest concern (and rebounding) I would think a 6'9" small forward can average 5-6 rebounds a game
jeff's offensive game is fine, we really haven't seen him fill the lanes with rondo running a break  ::)
good corner threes, really good post up game that i HOPE is used frequently
last year it seemed as if he "got it" on the defensive end

i expect jeff to be the top 2nd tier sf in the league or right near the top

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2013, 08:46:14 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Green is gonna be just fine.

He is a very good finisher. He does the awkward wrong foot lay up like Rondo, but that's just his preference I guess. He made a bunch of those lay ups last season.
He's almost automatic in the corner three pointers which is great for 3's and stretch 4's.
He draws fouls, he's a good free throw shooter.
The only concern with him, is his mentality, he has all the tools, and we've seen those last season, I hope he picks up where he's left off.

I don't think hes gonna be a super star. Although I hope I'm wrong on that.

But I think he could be a good #2 or #3 option in a good team. Hopefully that team is the Celtics in a couple of years.

I agree with everything you said. Finishing at full speed, albeit awkwardly, at the rim time and time again is no fluke. He definitely has figured out just the right way to get off his shot and get to the hoop. And, as you noted, he often gets fouled on this move, as well. He could possibly work on his left hand a little, but he knows what he definitely doesn't plow through like a truck.

I see Jeff averaging quite a lot of points this year on slightly worse efficiency, but if he can continue to get fouled, even that should hold up. I don't see him as the NBAs next superstar, but he is someone to root for in Boston.

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2013, 08:48:26 AM »

Offline RJ87

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Agree with OP. I've always viewed Jeff as an athlete who happened to play basketball as opposed an athletic basketball player. He can do a lot of things well but nothing great and thats mostly because his offensive game needs a lot of polish - he has to develop the ability to go left, some counter moves, a decent pull up jumper, and his footwork is a mess.
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Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2013, 09:03:42 AM »

Offline bfrombleacher

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A guy who's nearly 6'10 is going to look awkward. Durant and Paul George are rare birds.

He's never played a full, healthy season at small forward. He's never been a primary option. There are many things that haven't been addressed for this guy and there'll definitely be surprises. I reckon we'll have more pleasant surprises than negative ones.

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2013, 09:09:46 AM »

Offline European NBA fan

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consistency is my biggest concern (and rebounding) I would think a 6'9" small forward can average 5-6 rebounds a game
jeff's offensive game is fine, we really haven't seen him fill the lanes with rondo running a break  ::)
good corner threes, really good post up game that i HOPE is used frequently
last year it seemed as if he "got it" on the defensive end

i expect jeff to be the top 2nd tier sf in the league or right near the top

Jeff Green's rebound numbers have been between 5.1 and 6.5 rebounds/36 minutes every season he has been in the NBA. That's not really a concern for me.

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2013, 09:10:07 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Green didn't play out of position, not offensively at least.  He benefited immensely by going up against true PF matchups because of Pierce's presence.  His offensive numbers were vastly better at PF than SF.  With Pierce goine, he's not going to have that luxury.  Even if Wallace starts, the small forward is still going to guard Green. If Green is going to maintain the scoring and efficiency numbers he put up in the second half, he's going to have to develop the ability to go left or counter moves that enable him to get back to his right hand. 

In the same sample size in which he was a true small forward, he didn't look at that special. 

Green was a really good finisher on drives.  That hadn't been the case in OKC or in the first third of last season but it improved dramatically.

I thought it was exactly the opposite the first season he was with the C's?

You mean the SF/PF difference?

In 2010-11 Green was slightly better offensively at SF (13.8 PER at SF, 12.6 at PF).

Galeto's right about last year: 9.4 at SF, 20.6 at PF.

One thing that has been consistent though is much worse defense at the PF spot. In 2010-11 opponents' PER was 15.9 at PF vs. 7.8 at SF. Last year it was 15.7 at PF, 9.8 at SF.

Mind you, this is based on 82games.com's classification of minutes, which might be suspect.

http://www.82games.com/1213/12BOS10.HTM


Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2013, 10:42:50 AM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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Good post.

I agree with most of you that Green will be at a disadvantage as a go-to scorer, particularly because his biggest strengths are (1) knocking down the shot against a broken defense and (2) taking advantage of a well-space floor to shove it down someone's throat.

Next year the floor will not be as well spaced (unless Olynyk arrives in a BIG way), and the defense will be much more rarely broken down (until Rondo comes back). If Green is going to capitalize on his abilities in spite of that, he will need to play like a big James Harden- either shoot the 3 or slash hard to draw fouls.

I am not so much concerned as curious, because I think our coaching staff will be smart enough to run an offense that plays to Green's strengths. It will be fascinating to see who the personnel are.

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2013, 10:43:39 AM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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<ed. double post>
« Last Edit: August 06, 2013, 10:50:25 AM by sofutomygaha »

Re: Jeff Green Concerns
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2013, 10:49:45 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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Lessee, we spent last week bashing Rondo.   A day on Fab.  Green should serve as punching bag for a couple of days before we move on to a repeat of Avery Bradley is a Terrible Offensive Player(tm).  At some point we'll circle back to Ray Allen is a Traitor (tm) and then debate again why 55 different point guards in the China Basketball Association are all better than Rondo because they can make free throws.

 ;D

I find it notable how the OP completely ignores (doesn't mention) the fact that Green came back last year after missing an entire season ... from having his chest cracked open, his heart operated on and then having to rehab all the way back from learning how to walk again. ???   It just seems like it might be an important factor to consider ...

When you look at his various efficiencies (pts / fga, FG%, 3PT%) they rise in a steady, progressive fashion from just awful to start the season (he shot 29.2% from 3PT arc in November) to fantastic to end the season (52.6% in April).  While he played in 81 games, he also showed a steady progressive increase in his ability to play more minutes per game as the season progressed.

Call me crazy, but those things just MIGHT be indicative that he was not really recovered in the Fall and maybe folks should take his performance from the first part of the season with a big grain of salt -- unless you expect him to have to get open-heart surgery and do big rehab cycles frequently.

If you just look at the last 4 months of the season, it is hard to understand what it is the OP is complaining about when he says:

Quote
"1) He really hasn't passed the eye test.
He can score but his scoring is primarily from uncontrolled drives for a layup...which he really isn't the best at finishing. "

"The eye test" is, of course, completely subjective.  I'm right and you are wrong.  Whatever.

All I know is he looked pretty darn efficient at finishing to me.  He posted FG% numbers of 48.5%, 51.2%, 48.8%  & 49.1% in Jan, Feb, Mar & April.   For the season, on 'At Rim' shots, he finished an excellent 66.3%.  Probably better in the second half, though I don't have that particular split.

But if you think his footwork looked awful and out of control, that's fine.  Opinions are opinions and you get to have yours  To really assess that, I guess we'd have to do video breakdowns comparing Green's drive through the paint to that of the other 5 or 6 guys in the NBA who elevate the way he does.  I'm fully expecting to find flaws in Green's approach.

Green's offense did benefit at times from having defenses focus on Pierce or Garnett.  But he also had most of his biggest offensive games when one or both of those guys were not in the lineup.  In fact I think all of his top scoring output games were with at least one of those guys missing. 

 As far as splits go, Green has always been decent on offense against both PFs & SFs.   Generally, he's bigger than most SFs, and faster than most PFs so he could score one way or another against either.   Last year, the 82games.com splits heavily favored him against PFs, but it's hard to say how those splits were distributed throughout the season.

My sense is that Green was playing more exclusive SF early in the season, when he was doing straight sub for Pierce off the bench.  His overall play was pretty sucky then regardless of position.    His total shared minutes with Pierce in the first half was just 326 minutes, across 41 games.

Later in the year, he played a lot more, both with and without Pierce on the floor.  He played 688 minutes with Pierce in the second half.  So he got more minutes as 'PF' in the second half.   Though, even when on the floor with Pierce it was sometimes still at SF, as we moved Pierce to the SG spot in some lineups (for example, in the playoffs).

On Green's defense - it's been no secret that for years Green had more trouble with bigger, 'true PFs' - especially on the block.  He's long.  But he ain't heavy.

His defense on the perimeter was always his strength, even back in OKC.   Last year, the C's often defended the P&R to keep Green on the man on the perimeter.  Fighting through picks when his man was the ball handler and switching when his man was the pick.   This probably had a lot to do with why his Synergy per play defensive ratings were so good.   More perimeter plays and fewer plays getting posted up.

Overall, Green's defensive ratings were extremely good last year - especially in the second half.     Especially as a threesome combined with KG & Pierce: a tiny 88.1 points per 100 possessions surrendered when those three were on the floor!   Clearly, when used in a strong defensive system, with other smart defenders, Green is not a defensive liability.

I suspect that Brad Stevens will be able to use Green effectively on defense.

I don't get the criticisms about Green's 'consistency'.

He was consistently sub-par in the first half.

He was consistently pretty awesome in the second half.   Heck, starting around game 48, it became a rare game when he didn't score at least 15 points.  And his efficiencies were consistently very, very good.

I'm not worried about his consistency.

Finally, on his supposed, 'passivity'.   I really don't give much weight to this.   Guys don't always wear their emotions on their sleeves.  That doesn't mean they aren't competitive and intense.

Green was considered a 'leader' on both his Georgetown and OKC clubs - voted captain on each.   In college he was never afraid of taking 'the big shot'.  And I think he showed last year he's not afraid to take it here.   

Green's coach at Georgetown, the great John Thompson III once said this about Green's play during his last season there:

Quote
"“He wouldn’t let us lose on our run that year,” Thompson said. “It wasn’t just his game-winner against Vanderbilt. It was the shutdown game he played in the other end. He can control and dominate a game without scoring, and he had come into his own as an outstanding defensive player.”

And on Green's "passivity" and transition to be more of a primary scorer this last Spring with the Celtics:

Quote
“Jeff is an unselfish person, and he was used to playing on teams with very good players,” Thompson said. “Something we do (at Georgetown) is share the ball. I think he went to the next level and realized that there can be a difference.”

I'm not concerned about Green's "passivity".
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