If we lose just 10 more games this season, we'll draft one of these guys in 2014

[chambers]

Ok so this is good news for us. In a way it shows the depth of this draft and I'd like you to consider a few things. You may not agree with my assessment but consider it a possibility. (In a good way). Last season we won a single game out of every two games we played. That's 50%.
To give you a comparison,
*Cleveland Cavs won a single game in every four games they played (25%).
*The Phoenix Suns won slightly under one in every three games 31%.
*New Orleans finished 5th worst with one win in every three games. That's exactly 33% record or 27 wins and 55 losses.
Are we good enough to win more than 1 game out of every 3 next year? Thinking about our 50% record last season it's possible but not very likely (again, this is my opinion).


Here's last years bottom 10 teams and their win/loss records. Keep in mind the Celtics were 41-40 in the 2012-13 regular season.

10      Toronto Raptors         34      48      .415
9   Portland Trail Blazers   33   49   .402      
8   Minnesota Timberwolves   31   51   .378   
7   Detroit Pistons           29      53   .354      
6   Washington Wizards   29   53   .354   
5   Sacramento Kings   28   54   .341      
4   New Orleans Hornets   27   55   .329      
3   Phoenix Suns           25   57   .305   
2   Cleveland Cavaliers     24    58      .293
1       Orlando Magic           20      62      .244

We see that to be as bad as the Raptors were last year, we only have to lose 7 more games. Yes that's correct SEVEN. Is it likely this happens? It's probable at this point.

Now I'd argue that more of the bottom dwelling/medicore squads in the NBA actually got better/tougher this season and will add more wins to their tally this year than last year. There are a few exclusions like Philly and Orlando. But of the above I think we can say that
Toronto
Minnesota
Detroit
Washington
Portland

the above teams will all be around 10 wins better- putting them as playoff contenders for that 7,8,9,10th seed or the final spot in the playoffs.

Who'll be worse overall compared to last year? I think we can say that the:

Celtics
Philly
Magic
Jazz
Kings
Lakers (only 4 more wins that us last season)
Bucks

Will all be worse.

Lets imagine we lose at least 10 games more than last season and end up with a record of 31 wins 51 losses at around 37.8%. This landed the Wolves the 9th pick (which they had traded to Utah).

I think this is a really reasonable expectation to say the LEAST for us. If Green plays well and averages 20 ppg, 5 rebounds and 5 assists- we'll almost have a Paul Pierce replacement. Problem is there really is no KG and we don't have any shooters for Rondo to pass to. But that's another argument altogether so I'll stick to my point.

We don't know what the line up will really be but with two of Humphries, Bass and Wallace coming off the bench and providing 15 mins each we'll probably be good enough to win at least 25-30 games with Jeff Green scoring 20ppg and Rondo scoring 15, with Sully, Olynyk and Bradley each chipping in 5-10 points and some bench points from Hump or Bass and Wallace.
25-30 wins would put us in the bottom 9.

Now lets say that Danny tells Stevens to really give the young guys some experience and develop together.
Bass is traded (or Humphries) but Wallace is still playing, Bogans is getting vet minutes and our young guys are starting to mesh on defense like a Celtic defensive chain. Only problem is it's taken 40 games.

So instead of 10 less wins, lets make it 15 less wins. 5 more losses on top, so 15 wins worse than last year. This puts us at 26 and 58 and around 31%. That's third bottom in 2013 and on par with Phoenix.
If this happens we are on the good side of an 80% chance to land one of:

Wiggins
Parker
Randle
Exum
Smart
Aaron Gordon

Take your pick.

If Rondo's knee flares up and he misses 15-25 games....do we win more than 5 of those games? Is that another 5 losses?
If both Humphries and Bass are traded by the deadline how many more losses to we get in the second half of the season?
Who knows.
Philly are a guaranteed bottom team. They MIGHT win 15 games with Noel off the court.
Point is that even with Rondo we're looking at the very real possibility of losing at least 10-15 more games.

Wiggins
Randle
Exum
Gordon
Parker
Smart
Parker
Harrison
Hezonjia
Glen Robinson Jr

Unless we trade for LaMarcus Aldridge or an All Star big man...
One of those guys will be a Celtic next season.
Book it. I'll be re-hashing this thread.

[slamtheking]

Now I'd argue that more of the bottom dwelling/medicore squads in the NBA actually got better/tougher this season and will add more wins to their tally this year than last year. There are a few exclusions like Philly and Orlando. But of the above I think we can say that
Toronto
Minnesota
Detroit
Washington
Portland

the above teams will all be around 10 wins better- putting them as playoff contenders for that 7,8,9,10th seed or the final spot in the playoffs.

Who'll be worse overall compared to last year? I think we can say that the:

Celtics
Philly
Magic
Jazz
Kings
Lakers (only 4 more wins that us last season)
Bucks

Will all be worse.

TP for the thought process.

I have to admit I don't quite see it the same though.

Toronto --> won't be 10 games better.  I'd be surprised if they manage to even stay the same. 
Minnesota --> they'll be better if Love and Rubio can stay healthy.
Detroit --> they'll be better thanks to Josh Smith. 
Washington --> a healthy Wall and a better Beal will make them better.
Portland --> I see them staying about the same if they're lucky.

Worse?
--Celtics -- no proven center or SG that can actually score.  they'll be fighting to win 30 this year.

--Philly --> much worse than last year.  starting to think they'll be the worst team in the league now.

--Magic --> they'll be better than last year.  lots of young talent that I think will start to gel.  figuring they'll win more than last year--maybe 7-10 more games.

--Jazz --> no Big Al or Milsap but they have the PG they've wanted.  most likely worse than last year and being in the tought West, could have a worse record than the C's.

--Kings --> no Tyreke but team may have a better balance now.  DMC needs to step it up this year or all that talk of how promising he is should be dialed way back.  They'll probably be a few games better than last year.

--Lakers --> Kobe hates losing so he'll will that team to challenge for the playoffs. his ego won't let him tank for the lottery. (he'd have to share the spotlight with the new wonderkid).  he still has Nash, Pao and Kaman so they're not completely terrible either.

--Bucks --> the frontcourt has got talent.  Ellis isn't a big loss with the pickup of OJ Mayo who leaves Jennings to be more of a distributor.  I actually think these guys will be much better (figuring Sanders makes another jump in his talent level too).
EDIT-->if the deal sending Jennings to Detroit for Knight goes through, I think Milwaukee gets even better--probably a few more games--because I think Knight would be a better fit next to Mayo and with that frontcourt
In the end, I think the teams we can pretty much count on being worse than the C's are the Bobcats, Phx and now probably Philly.  I think there's a chance (not a probability) that every other team could finish with a better record. Ultimately, I think the C's will finish with the 7th worst record and hoping that no one with a better record leapfrogs them to the top 3.

[bleedGREENdon]

The bobcats can be a better team then us, they actually have a legit center/PF whos going to give them close to 20-10 every game. If rondo doesnt play the whole season, crash plays like last year, we will be the worst team in the league competing with Philly. Its no doubt in my mind.

East-

Heat
Nets
Pacers
Bulls
Knicks
Detroit
Washington
Cleveland
-
Milwaukee
Toronto
Charlotte
Cs
Philly

If rondo plays I say we flip flip with charlotte maybe, i see Cleveland being a playoff team this year, Kyrie will be a superstar this year. Toronto has rudy gay, valencianus whatever his name is, and the other athletic guy lol.


West-

Clippers
OKC
Houston
Spurs
Golden state
Memphis
Dallas
Minnesota
---
New Orleans
Lakers
Portland
Denver
Utah
Kings
Suns

I highly doubt the kings have a worst record then philly and the celtics and that leaves us in the bottom 5 regardless. And if the pingPong balls go our way.
We can have the Top Pick.

[aporel#18]

I can see the Celtics getting a top 10 pick, maybe a top 5, just because of them playing the young kids plus maybe starting the season without a 100% healthy Rondo/Sully.

In the unlikely case the Cs have some lottery luck, there's a chance to land a future star. If the pick isn't that good, thay can always package it with other assets to get a young star entering his prime, like LaMarcus or Marc Gasol (or both in my pipe dream scenario) to team up with Rondo and Green and the young kid(s) who stay with the team (Sully/Olynyk/Bradley...).

I expect Danny to get some more assets out of trading Bass, Lee, Humphries and even Bogans.

[droopdog7]

Honestly, I think folks are more than likely making too much of the draft class next year.  Wiggins I get.  He looks like a franchise player.  But beyond that, I would not assume on any of the other guys changing a franchise. 

Not saying that it can't or won't happen for one or two of the others.  It could. But this idea that there will be five to eight guys that teams will be able to build around coming out in one year is unreasonable IMO.

So we have a good chance of getting a starter in the top 10 next year.  And that's great. 

[chambers]

Honestly, I think folks are more than likely making too much of the draft class next year.  Wiggins I get.  He looks like a franchise player.  But beyond that, I would not assume on any of the other guys changing a franchise. 

Not saying that it can't or won't happen for one or two of the others.  It could. But this idea that there will be five to eight guys that teams will be able to build around coming out in one year is unreasonable IMO.

So we have a good chance of getting a starter in the top 10 next year.  And that's great.

If there are 3 franchise level guys though, it's a serious draft. I mean there are up to 6-8 All Stars in this draft with 2-4 potential franchise level guys depending on who reaches potential.

If we are going to suck then it would be nice to get one of those top 5 guys rather than just a top 10 guy.

SB Nation just did their bloggers rankings for next season. Looks like we're in with a good shot according to the rest of the NBA blogging world. These are the guys that have Jeff Clark's job for all the other teams.
You'll also notice Jeff gave us the highest rank at 22 which was the HIGHEST! The lowest was 28. So basically the consensus among them was that we are somewhere between 22-28, most likely 26. (the average of everyone's prediction).

Teams Final Rank Average Rank Best Rank WorstRank
Heat        1          1.0        1           1
Thunder       2          3.0        2           7
Spurs       3          3.8        2           7
Pacers       4          4.4        2           8
Clippers    5          4.7        2           9
Bulls       6          6.2        4           9
Rockets       7          6.7        3           11
Nets       8          7.5        3           11
Grizzlies   9          8.7        7           11
Warriors   10          9.4        6           11
Knicks      11         11.0        9           14
Timberwolves 12         13.5        12           19
Nuggets      13         13.9        12           22
Hawks      14         14.2        10           21
TrailBlazers 15         15.5        12           18
Pelicans   16         17.4        13           23
Wizards      17         17.4        14           23
Cavaliers  18         17.9        11           24
Mavericks  19         18.3        13           26
Lakers      20         19.3        15           23
Pistons      21         20.5        18           24
Raptors      22         21.7        18           28
Bucks      23         22.2        16           27
Kings      24         24.7        21           27
Jazz      25         25.3        22           30
Celtics      26         25.5        22           28
Bobcats      27         26.8        23           30
Magic      28         27.3        21           30
Suns      29         28.1        24           30
Sixers      30         29.7        27           30

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/7/31/4574378/nba-rankings-2013-offseason-heat-sixers