WHY YOU NEED A TOP PICK TO COMPETE (hey, but only 33 out of 34x!!)

[ManUp]

1.) Drafting isn't the only way to get one of those players. (notice players bolting for green pastures being the new trend)

2.) Tanking doesn't guarantee you anything. (remember 1997 draft? You know the one with Tim Duncan)

3.) We're probably going to be a lottery team regardless let chance do it's thing. Chicago got Rose  with a 1.7% chance at pick number 1. Cleveland got Irving with a 2.8 chance of winning. Don't hurt player development and team culture for something with no guarantees.

[Eja117]

Drafting one of those players is only half the problem, keeping them is the other half.

Just ask Milwaukee (Kareem), Cleveland (LeBron), Orlando (Shaq), Utah (Moses), Cincinnati (Robertson), Virginia (Erving), Minnesota (Garnet), Philadelphia (Chamberlain) how well drafting those players worked out for them.

Add D Howard and CP3 to that list

Exactly....don't forget the top picks that didn't work so well... Pervis, Kandi, Emeka, Darko

And don't forget the guys that didn't win...Malone, Barkley, Ewing, Larry Johnson, Webber, Zo (backups don't count)

[EDWARDO]

1.) Drafting isn't the only way to get one of those players. (notice players bolting for green pastures being the new trend)

RIGHT!! So there's free agency... the best FA ever to come to the Celtics is who? Xavier McDaniels? 

Or you can make a trade. EXTREMELY rare for someone to trade a top 25 player of all-time in his prime. BUT, Danny Ainge was actually able to pull off this miracle once!!! HOORAY FOR DANNY!! MIRACULOUS WORK!!

And what does he get for it? 75% of the people on this board thinks he stinks and constatntly does the wrong thing... even though he's pulled off an absolute miracle 6 years ago nearly to the day. Unbelievable.

2.) Tanking doesn't guarantee you anything. (remember 1997 draft? You know the one with Tim Duncan)

Right. One guy in that draft. We are saying there may be 3-4 guys in this draft at nearly that level. Have you not been following?

3.) We're probably going to be a lottery team regardless let chance do it's thing. Chicago got Rose  with a 1.7% chance at pick number 1. Cleveland got Irving with a 2.8 chance of winning. Don't hurt player development and team culture for something with no guarantees.

Hmm, but the team with the WORST record is guaranteed a top 4 pick. That's 100% for everyone scoring at home. Even the team with the 3rd, 4th, 5th record stands a very solid chance of coming away with a true difference maker in this draft. So if there are 4 GREAT players in this draft, there are a lot of chances to go around.

[Celtics18]

1.) Drafting isn't the only way to get one of those players. (notice players bolting for green pastures being the new trend)

RIGHT!! So there's free agency... the best FA ever to come to the Celtics is who? Xavier McDaniels? 

Or you can make a trade. EXTREMELY rare for someone to trade a top 25 player of all-time in his prime. BUT, Danny Ainge was actually able to pull off this miracle once!!! HOORAY FOR DANNY!! MIRACULOUS WORK!!

And what does he get for it? 75% of the people on this board thinks he stinks and constatntly does the wrong thing... even though he's pulled off an absolute miracle 6 years ago nearly to the day. Unbelievable.

2.) Tanking doesn't guarantee you anything. (remember 1997 draft? You know the one with Tim Duncan)

Right. One guy in that draft. We are saying there may be 3-4 guys in this draft at nearly that level. Have you not been following.

3.) We're probably going to be a lottery team regardless let chance do it's thing. Chicago got Rose  with a 1.7% chance at pick number 1. Cleveland got Irving with a 2.8 chance of winning. Don't hurt player development and team culture for something with no guarantees.

Hmm, but the team with the WORST record is guaranteed a top 4 pick. That's 100% for everyone scoring at home. Even the team with the 3rd, 4th, 5th record stands a very solid chance of coming away with a true difference maker in this draft.

How do you propose that we tank?  Would you like to see the team actually lose games on purpose?  Or, are you hoping that we are simply bad enough to be the worst, or one of the four worst teams in the league, based on our current roster? 

[Chris]

Below is the list of the 25 greatest players of all time compiled by Bill Simmons. You may like him or hate him, but this list will likely very largely reflect most lists of the top players of all time. (i'm noticing its from 2010 as well, but I don't think much would change except for Lebron being much higher and perhaps Dirk N being on the list now as well.)


1   Michael Jordan      #3 overall and came out early
2   Bill Russell            #2 overall, only because St. Louis with #1 pick would not pay the upfront bonus he was asking for
3   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar    #1 overall
4   Magic Johnson        #1 overall
5   Larry Bird        #6 overall, but only because he was drafted a year early... would have been #1 or #2 overall with certainly the following year
6   Wilt Chamberlain   was a "territorial pick" so wasn't drafted, but came into the league and was the highest paid player as a rookie, so yeah, he would have been taken #1
7   Tim Duncan    #1 pick
8   Kobe Bryant    #13 overall, the first HS player to come out in 20yrs.. with Kobe and KG the following year, its clear teams were not valuing HS players correctly... this quickly changed though
9   Jerry West        #2 overall because the next guy was #1 overall
10   Oscar Robertson  #1 overall
11   Hakeem Olajuwon   #1 overall
12   Shaquille O'Neal      #1 overall
13   Moses Malone direct from HS free agent
14   John Havlicek  #7 overall in 1962
15   Elgin Baylor   #1 overall
16   Julius Erving  went to ABA as a free agent...
17   Bob Pettit   #2 overall
18   Karl Malone lucky #13 again!!
19   Charles Barkley       #5 overall
20   LeBron James   #1 overall
21   Bob Cousy   #3 overall
22   Kevin Garnett   #5 overall
23   Isiah Thomas   #2 overall
24   Scottie Pippen   #5 overall
25   John Stockton   #16

28 of the last 30 titles were led by players on this list.

Are still going to argue that you don't need a top 25 player of all time to win a title? I mean, can you now honestly think that we can round up 7-8 Jared Sullingers and Kelly Olynyks and compete for a title? You HAVE to have one of these guys to have a serious chance to win a title.

Most of the titles were won by #1 overall picks. Most of the others were won by players who WOULD have been #1/2 overall picks under different circumstances - Bird drafted after his junior year, Kobe and KG drafted as first HS players, Jordan came out early and was stuck behind Hakeem, Dr J as a free agent.

Are there seriously people arguing that the draft is a complete crap shoot? Its certainly no guarantee, and as I've said having A #1 pick does not a title contender make (exhibit A - Anthony Bennett!). BUT have a top pick when a GREAT player is there can make you a contender for 15 years. This appears to be one of those years.

The questions isn't whether you need an elite player (which would generally be a high draft pick) to win a championship.  The question is whether you need to DRAFT that player.

Of this list, the following players won championships for teams other than the team that drafted them:

Kareem
Wilt
Bryant
Robertson
Shaq
Moses Malone
Lebron
KG

So yeah, you generally need an elite player to win.  But, you don't necessarily need to get that player by playing the lottery. 

[EDWARDO]

I'm not even saying we should tank. And I'm by no means sure there are going to be 4 superstar players in this draft. It seems pretty certain there will be at least a couple of very very good ones. I'm just saying that you HAVE HAVE HAVE to have a GREAT player on your team to have anything but a fleeting chance at a title. I'm saying that if there was ever a year to be terrible, this is one of them.



And Chris, see what I wrote above... FAs will NOT be coming to Boston and no one is going to force a trade to Boston. Luckily, we have a GM who has actually pulled off a minor miracle of trading for one of these guys in the past, so all hope is not lost. But its a long shot.

[tyrone biggums]

1.) Drafting isn't the only way to get one of those players. (notice players bolting for green pastures being the new trend)

RIGHT!! So there's free agency... the best FA ever to come to the Celtics is who? Xavier McDaniels? 

Or you can make a trade. EXTREMELY rare for someone to trade a top 25 player of all-time in his prime. BUT, Danny Ainge was actually able to pull off this miracle once!!! HOORAY FOR DANNY!! MIRACULOUS WORK!!

And what does he get for it? 75% of the people on this board thinks he stinks and constatntly does the wrong thing... even though he's pulled off an absolute miracle 6 years ago nearly to the day. Unbelievable.

2.) Tanking doesn't guarantee you anything. (remember 1997 draft? You know the one with Tim Duncan)

Right. One guy in that draft. We are saying there may be 3-4 guys in this draft at nearly that level. Have you not been following?

3.) We're probably going to be a lottery team regardless let chance do it's thing. Chicago got Rose  with a 1.7% chance at pick number 1. Cleveland got Irving with a 2.8 chance of winning. Don't hurt player development and team culture for something with no guarantees.

Hmm, but the team with the WORST record is guaranteed a top 4 pick. That's 100% for everyone scoring at home. Even the team with the 3rd, 4th, 5th record stands a very solid chance of coming away with a true difference maker in this draft. So if there are 4 GREAT players in this draft, there are a lot of chances to go around.

I hate this stupid free agency argument. Since free agency has started when is the last time the team had maximum cap room? During that time Paul Gaston was the owner. If you were a fan during that era of Celtics lore then you would cease to bring up why the Celtics have never signed a top free agent. KG waived his no trade to come to Boston. Players will still come to Boston to win provided that they have a championship potential team. KG then resigned with Boston...Ray Allen stayed in Boston until he left for Miami and a better title opportunity. KG when he was acquired was in his prime. Maybe Boston isn't the top destination but its like the Cardinals with baseball. How many players get traded to Boston and hate it?

Paul Gaston and no cap space are the reasons the Celtics never landed a huge FA. Not the weather or taxes. If you don't know who Gaston was there is an NHL equivalent in Charles Wang with the Islanders.

[Mencius]

28 of the last 30 titles were led by players on this list.

Are still going to argue that you don't need a top 25 player of all time to win a title?

If you absolutely needed a top 25 player of all time to win a title, 30 of the last 30 titles would have been led by players on that list.

God, its getting a bit ridiculous though isn't it? How about this? Dirk is now in the top 25 and the guys on that list goes back to 1980, I think.

So in 33 of 34 years, you need a top 25 player of all-time, does that suit you? Have we split enough hairs for you?

It IS splitting hairs, Edwardo, so to avoid having your argument picked apart too much, around these parts, you have to choose your words carefully.  Now, if you say that 22 of the last 34 championship teams won the championship with their #1 guy being a guy that they themselves picked in the lottery with their own pick owing to their own poor record, you'd be accurate.

Here's the breakdown, and I'll put number of championships beside the player:  Bird and Celtics (3), Magic and Lakers (5), Isiah and Pistons (2), Hakeem and Rockets (2), Jordan and Bulls (6), Duncan and Spurs (4)... (should have been 5, [dang]it!), Dirk and Mavs (1)(counting the draft day trade where they swapped one position with Milwaukee for Tractor Traylor), Wade and Heat (1)... the first championship, when Wade was still their #1 guy.

So, yeah, there are 3 ways to build a team (draft, trade, FA signings), but 22 of the last 34 champions had as their #1 guy be someone they drafted in the lottery with their own pick, and then filled in the complimentary pieces via trades and FAs.  Not the only strategy, but by far the most frequent; Miami and the Lakers have been notable examples of doing it via trades and free agency.

[PhoSita]

Below is the list of the 25 greatest players of all time compiled by Bill Simmons. You may like him or hate him, but this list will likely very largely reflect most lists of the top players of all time. (i'm noticing its from 2010 as well, but I don't think much would change except for Lebron being much higher and perhaps Dirk N being on the list now as well.)


1   Michael Jordan      #3 overall and came out early
2   Bill Russell            #2 overall, only because St. Louis with #1 pick would not pay the upfront bonus he was asking for
3   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar    #1 overall
4   Magic Johnson        #1 overall
5   Larry Bird        #6 overall, but only because he was drafted a year early... would have been #1 or #2 overall with certainly the following year
6   Wilt Chamberlain   was a "territorial pick" so wasn't drafted, but came into the league and was the highest paid player as a rookie, so yeah, he would have been taken #1
7   Tim Duncan    #1 pick
8   Kobe Bryant    #13 overall, the first HS player to come out in 20yrs.. with Kobe and KG the following year, its clear teams were not valuing HS players correctly... this quickly changed though
9   Jerry West        #2 overall because the next guy was #1 overall
10   Oscar Robertson  #1 overall
11   Hakeem Olajuwon   #1 overall
12   Shaquille O'Neal      #1 overall
13   Moses Malone direct from HS free agent
14   John Havlicek  #7 overall in 1962
15   Elgin Baylor   #1 overall
16   Julius Erving  went to ABA as a free agent...
17   Bob Pettit   #2 overall
18   Karl Malone lucky #13 again!!
19   Charles Barkley       #5 overall
20   LeBron James   #1 overall
21   Bob Cousy   #3 overall
22   Kevin Garnett   #5 overall
23   Isiah Thomas   #2 overall
24   Scottie Pippen   #5 overall
25   John Stockton   #16

28 of the last 30 titles were led by players on this list.

Are still going to argue that you don't need a top 25 player of all time to win a title? I mean, can you now honestly think that we can round up 7-8 Jared Sullingers and Kelly Olynyks and compete for a title? You HAVE to have one of these guys to have a serious chance to win a title.

Most of the titles were won by #1 overall picks. Most of the others were won by players who WOULD have been #1/2 overall picks under different circumstances - Bird drafted after his junior year, Kobe and KG drafted as first HS players, Jordan came out early and was stuck behind Hakeem, Dr J as a free agent.

Are there seriously people arguing that the draft is a complete crap shoot? Its certainly no guarantee, and as I've said having A #1 pick does not a title contender make (exhibit A - Anthony Bennett!). BUT have a top pick when a GREAT player is there can make you a contender for 15 years. This appears to be one of those years.

The questions isn't whether you need an elite player (which would generally be a high draft pick) to win a championship.  The question is whether you need to DRAFT that player.

Of this list, the following players won championships for teams other than the team that drafted them:

Kareem
Wilt
Bryant
Robertson
Shaq
Moses Malone
Lebron
KG

So yeah, you generally need an elite player to win.  But, you don't necessarily need to get that player by playing the lottery.

LeBron, Shaq, Wilt, and Kareem all went to their eventual title team via free agency.  The Lakers and the Heat.  We can have a discussion about whether or not it's reasonable to expect that any big time free agent is going to come to the Celtics in the same manner.  I for one don't think it's ever going to happen.

KG and Moses Malone were both acquired via trade which included top 5 draft choices.

That leaves Kobe and Oscar.  Oscar was traded because his team couldn't stand him anymore.  Kobe could be considered a special case because of the high school thing.  Would a player like Kobe fall out of the top 10 if he played in college?  You can decide for yourself.

So from that list I think the only scenario that seems plausible for the Celtics is the Oscar Robertson one -- a superstar with a nasty personality so sours his team that they are willing to give him up for far less than he's worth.  Even then, I suppose we'd better hope we have the new-age Lew Alcindor to help carry the team to a championship.

[BudweiserCeltic]

The question is WHY DO YOU KEEP PUTTING THREAD TITLES IN ALL CAPS!

That said, it's obvious you need talent to win in this league... it's a complete fallacy that you need to tank to acquire one, and it's a complete fallacy that acquiring a top type player while having a crap roster is conductive to actually building a winning team.

All these lists about "hey look who has won championships, they're top picks!" is complete rubbish and irrelevant to how you should go about maximizing the potential of your team going forward.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

All I'm seeing is coincidence, not causation. In all honesty who ain't got a lottery pick in their roster and why is it the defining factor? To put it in perspective, here is another argument on pretty much the same logic. Something like 28 of the past 30 winners of the Boston Marathon were Kenyan citizens with Kenyan passports, therefore if you want to have any chance of winning the Boston Marathon you ABSOLUTELY MUST get yourself issued with a Kenyan passport.

[Rondo2287]

The question is WHY DO YOU KEEP PUTTING THREAD TITLES IN ALL CAPS!

That said, it's obvious you need talent to win in this league... it's a complete fallacy that you need to tank to acquire one, and it's a complete fallacy that acquiring a top type player while having a crap roster is conductive to actually building a winning team.

All these lists about "hey look who has won championships, they're top picks!" is complete rubbish and irrelevant to how you should go about maximizing the potential of your team going forward.

[revtodd64]

The Utah Jazz did a remarkable job having a championship caliber team while drafting Malone and Stockton at 13 and 16.  Imagine getting two top 25 all time players drafted out of the top 10.  They did not win a championship, but a few bounces their way and they could win a couple.  Would we be unhappy having a Utah Jazz caliber team ready to compete every year for most of a decade?  I would be happy with that. 

That is why I'm glad Ainge got a ton of first round draft picks.  It is more ping pong balls to get assets.  It will take luck to build a champion again, but Ainge is helping the odds with getting assets.  That is the most important thing. Tanking or not tanking is the wrong debate.  Tanking is like gambling, you can hit the jackpot or doom your franchise for a decade by throwing a season away.  Danny will build a winner and then try to get lucky. 

[Boris Badenov]

Below is the list of the 25 greatest players of all time compiled by Bill Simmons. You may like him or hate him, but this list will likely very largely reflect most lists of the top players of all time. (i'm noticing its from 2010 as well, but I don't think much would change except for Lebron being much higher and perhaps Dirk N being on the list now as well.)


1   Michael Jordan      #3 overall and came out early
2   Bill Russell            #2 overall, only because St. Louis with #1 pick would not pay the upfront bonus he was asking for
3   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar    #1 overall
4   Magic Johnson        #1 overall
5   Larry Bird        #6 overall, but only because he was drafted a year early... would have been #1 or #2 overall with certainly the following year
6   Wilt Chamberlain   was a "territorial pick" so wasn't drafted, but came into the league and was the highest paid player as a rookie, so yeah, he would have been taken #1
7   Tim Duncan    #1 pick
8   Kobe Bryant    #13 overall, the first HS player to come out in 20yrs.. with Kobe and KG the following year, its clear teams were not valuing HS players correctly... this quickly changed though
9   Jerry West        #2 overall because the next guy was #1 overall
10   Oscar Robertson  #1 overall
11   Hakeem Olajuwon   #1 overall
12   Shaquille O'Neal      #1 overall
13   Moses Malone direct from HS free agent
14   John Havlicek  #7 overall in 1962
15   Elgin Baylor   #1 overall
16   Julius Erving  went to ABA as a free agent...
17   Bob Pettit   #2 overall
18   Karl Malone lucky #13 again!!
19   Charles Barkley       #5 overall
20   LeBron James   #1 overall
21   Bob Cousy   #3 overall
22   Kevin Garnett   #5 overall
23   Isiah Thomas   #2 overall
24   Scottie Pippen   #5 overall
25   John Stockton   #16

28 of the last 30 titles were led by players on this list.

Are still going to argue that you don't need a top 25 player of all time to win a title? I mean, can you now honestly think that we can round up 7-8 Jared Sullingers and Kelly Olynyks and compete for a title? You HAVE to have one of these guys to have a serious chance to win a title.

Most of the titles were won by #1 overall picks. Most of the others were won by players who WOULD have been #1/2 overall picks under different circumstances - Bird drafted after his junior year, Kobe and KG drafted as first HS players, Jordan came out early and was stuck behind Hakeem, Dr J as a free agent.

Are there seriously people arguing that the draft is a complete crap shoot? Its certainly no guarantee, and as I've said having A #1 pick does not a title contender make (exhibit A - Anthony Bennett!). BUT have a top pick when a GREAT player is there can make you a contender for 15 years. This appears to be one of those years.

The questions isn't whether you need an elite player (which would generally be a high draft pick) to win a championship.  The question is whether you need to DRAFT that player.

Of this list, the following players won championships for teams other than the team that drafted them:

Kareem
Wilt
Bryant
Robertson
Shaq
Moses Malone
Lebron
KG

So yeah, you generally need an elite player to win.  But, you don't necessarily need to get that player by playing the lottery.

LeBron, Shaq, Wilt, and Kareem all went to their eventual title team via free agency.  The Lakers and the Heat.  We can have a discussion about whether or not it's reasonable to expect that any big time free agent is going to come to the Celtics in the same manner.  I for one don't think it's ever going to happen.

KG and Moses Malone were both acquired via trade which included top 5 draft choices.

That leaves Kobe and Oscar.  Oscar was traded because his team couldn't stand him anymore.  Kobe could be considered a special case because of the high school thing.  Would a player like Kobe fall out of the top 10 if he played in college?  You can decide for yourself.

So from that list I think the only scenario that seems plausible for the Celtics is the Oscar Robertson one -- a superstar with a nasty personality so sours his team that they are willing to give him up for far less than he's worth.  Even then, I suppose we'd better hope we have the new-age Lew Alcindor to help carry the team to a championship.

Which top 5 draft pick was included in the KG trade?

You might be thinking of the Ray trade.

[bdm860]

If anything that lists tells me one Top 25 All-Time talent isn't enough, we need multiple Top 25 All-Time players if we hope to win anything!

From the list:
#1 Jordan won with #24 Pippen
#2 Russell won with #21 Cousy
#3 Kareem won with #4 Magic and #10 Oscar Robertson
#6 Wilt won with #9 Jerry West
#8 Kobe won with #12 Shaq
#13 Moses won with #17 Erving

But then what if we get too much talent and it doesn't work? Because after all:

#15 Elgin Baylor didn’t with #6 Wilt and  #9 Jerry West
#18 Karl Malone didn’t win with #25 Stockton
#19 Barkley didn’t win with #13 Moses and #17 Erving

I'm so confused now