Why a Rondo for Drummond trade is more likely than you think..Poll included

[chambers]

The Pistons want Rondo. Ainge knows this.
Ainge wants to move Rondo and Dumars knows this.
Classic trade baiting/stand off here. Danny's too tough for Joe D in the long run because eventually the offers will come in from other teams for Rondo so Dumars has a tough few months ahead.
His biggest dilemma is that Ainge is going to demand Drummond. Nothing less. He'll get more than that from some teams and that's regardless of whether or not you think Rondo is worth Drummond etc...because I think you can argue that other execs in the NBA will give up more than Drummond for Rondo..no matter how overrated you think Rondo is.

Danny would love this squad to hit rock bottom to maximize our opportunity cost in the lottery in 2014 and 2015. Keeping Rondo at the moment just doesn't make sense with only 2 years on his deal and no franchise free agents coming up until 2015 (unless you think Lebron or Carmelo would come to Boston in 2014). By the time those free agents come around, Rondo could be completely frustrated/fed up with the organization at his lack of a contending team and want out- then add in the luck needed to sign those free agents ahead of the other major markets who already have superstars/franchise guys.
It's win win for Danny but he definitely doesn't want to just give Rondo away- he needs to get maximum value and Dumars knows this.

Dumar's biggest conflict is the immediate impact that Rondo brings. Taking Detroit from 7th or 8th seed to the top 4-6 teams in the East or higher if everything transitions nicely. Top 4 this season in the East will be brutal (Miami, Chicago, Brooklyn, Indiana) but they'd be a good shot against any of them after a season of playing together.

Dumars has to weigh this up against the ceiling of Drummond and how quickly he'd possibly reach his peak/potential.
They've got Smith locked up for 4 years so that should be plenty of time to get the best out of Drummond while Smith and Monroe are there, especially with Caldwell Pope coming in now.

That's the million dollar question for Dumars... Is Rondo's impact over 4 or 5 years in his prime from age 27-32 whilst they have Smith and Monroe there- enough to make them a serious contender for that period? Keep in mind that we have the Heat and Bulls in the East for the next 2-3 years and with the 2015 free agency class who knows how good other ECF teams will be. His phone a friend question is...is Drummonds unreached potential enough to turn down a trade for a top 3 All Star point guard? Consider Rondo's game and how well he complements athletic guys like Monroe and Smith in transition and the pick and roll/around the basket. Rondo's passing is exactly what they need.

Dumars has the chance to put a contender on the floor now. They'll need 1-2 more pieces because there isn't a franchise guy but a scorer and a shooter or two would be the best pieces obviously. They'd be similar to the 2004 Pistons who had no true franchise guy but a starting 5 of very good, potential All Star talents and All Stars that put their heart and soul into defense and teamwork- because of the lack of a franchise guy it's still very risky and both Monroe and Smith would have to take their games to another level-but with Rondo that may be possible.

I believe Ainge has the upper hand in this one as he often does. If Drummond is a bust and he fails to land Rondo because he was banking on Drummonds potential then again he's the laughing stock GM that failed to give Smith/Caldwell Pope/Monroe the right point guard or 4th key piece. (he might be used to the terrible GM label by now?)

Trading for Rondo only makes them a better team and takes much of the guess work out of everything for Detroit.

Now I'll gloat and say that in the past I've suggested Dumars would go after Rondo because he loves him and his toughness. From one champion NBA guard to another he knows what Rondo brings on the court and in the locker room with his championship pedigree and Kevin Garnett inspired approach to winning.
Do you really give that up for a sophomore who's at least 2-3 seasons from scratching his potential (if it's still there at all?). That's a very difficult situation but ultimately you'd have to figure that Dumars pulls the trigger.

I'd ignore the Brandon Knight for Rondo stuff. It's complete crap and Ainge would rather shoot himself than take Knight back without any picks. I mean he'd at least ask for Knight and Caldwell Pope (2013 lottery pick shooting guard). It's posturing by Dumars to bring down Rondo's value as Ainge shops him.

I have touched on this before but I think the perfect trade for the 'tank' path of a rebuild would be to make the trade a double whammy that gives Dumars no option but to say yes.
This happens by adding Jeff Green into the mix and giving them something like: (salaries aren't perfect but you could make them match)
Rondo
Jeff Green
Brandon Bass
Nets 2014 or 16' pick

for

Drummond
Caldwell Pope
Jonas Jerebko
Charlie Villeneuva's albatross contract

Adding Jeff Green makes the Pistons a true contender in the vein of the 2004 Pistons. Adding a very good starting caliber small forward that gives them shooting and defensive improvements who's still getting better as a starter. He also runs the floor with Rondo and Smith like a horse and gives them the most athletic 1,3,4,5 combo in the NBA with Monroe, and arguably the toughest defensive starting 5 depending who they sign at the SG.

They must add a serious three point shooter to the mix with a shooting guard. (JJ Reddick would've been perfect but someone like Quincy Pondexter would be great too), so Green and this shooting guard could create space inside and force teams to honor the three.

This trade is perfect for us because we get Drummond and Caldwell Pope (and Jerebko). We lose our two best players but if we are trading Rondo does it really matter if we are trading Jeff Green for another lottery pick and securing Drummond for the rebuild? Each Celtics fan has their own opinion about that but the reason this works is because as they say...
"when both fan bases of the trading teams think their team got robbed in a trade then it was probably very good value for both teams involved".
This is the case of such a trade. Many Celtics fans will scream highway robbery- but this certainly wouldn't be the case given Drummond's potential and Caldwell Pope's NCAA efficiency numbers. Both huge potential NBA talents.
Combine this with the timing of our roster blow up and the 2014 and 2015 drafts approaching then and it isn't hard to foresee why Ainge would want such a deal to occur.

Pistons fans will scream highway robbery as well after the 'potential' they gave away in Drummond and Pope, and how bad of a shooter Rondo is, and how he only cares about winning in the playoffs. How soft Jeff Green is and how he's never going to be a consistent player... But once they see the product on the floor and are exposed to the talent of Green and Rondo next to Monroe and Smith they'll be very happy. I know as a Celtics fan I would happily go down the road of that team instead of blowing it up.
It's just a shame the Celtics aren't in a position to put 2 guys like Josh Smith and Monroe next to Green and Rondo.
I mean Sully or Olynyk maybe the perfect fit in 2 or 3 years time but it's just too far away with Rondo and Green's deals coming to an end around that time. They could both stink and never be anywhere near Monroe's level as a starting big man. We just don't know.
The reason this trade works is because it's exactly what both teams need in their current situation.

With all speculation as have laid out here, please remember we don't know what Ainge is going to do, but there's a high likelyhood that he is shopping Rondo- and if he does want to trade Rondo, keeping Green doesn't make that much sense either.
All I know is that Ainge has the upper hand in such a trade and Dumars saying that Drummond is simply not available is simply false.

Disclaimer: This isn't really a trade idea, it's more of a reasoning behind why such a trade would occur and how it may unfold. So take it as you will and please vote because it's great to gauge the hardcore Celtics fan base when we are faced with a road filled with tough decisions ahead.
I'll add that I am a pro tanker and in favor of chasing the 2014 and 2015 NBA drafts for talent given the Celtics current cap/roster situation.

[e4sym0de]

Rondo
Jeff Green
Brandon Bass
Nets 2014 or 16' pick

for

Drummond
Caldwell Pope
Jonas Jerebko
Charlie Villeneuva's albatross contract

No way for me!

[chambers]

Rondo
Jeff Green
Brandon Bass
Nets 2014 or 16' pick

for

Drummond
Caldwell Pope
Jonas Jerebko
Charlie Villeneuva's albatross contract

No way for me!

Hey buddy, why's that? What's your thoughts or specific reason for not liking such a deal? Don't worry I'm not gonna flame or degrade you. Just like to know other fans opinions on the future.

[Birdman]

Rondo
Jeff Green
Brandon Bass
Nets 2014 or 16' pick

for

Drummond
Caldwell Pope
Jonas Jerebko
Charlie Villeneuva's albatross contract

No way for me!

Wow no way either!! We be lucky to win 10 games

[Cman]

It's not going to happen. It puts too much faith in the idea that the Cs will attract free agents. They can't. If Rondo is traded it is part of a trade to get a superstar.

[Birdman]

I bet Josh smith is lobbying hard for Rondo..
If they was going to trade him, i think they would already done so..Stevens wouldnt have went to talk to Rondo if Ainge was going to trade him..Ainge probably told Stevens they was keeping Rondo...But I would do Rondo for Drummond and Knight 

[Moranis]

Detroit will not trade Drummond for Rondo.

[LooseCannon]

Ainge wants to move Rondo and Dumars knows this.

I'm not convinced that this is true.

I think Ainge has Rondo pegged at a certain value, probably higher than other GMs due to the use of analytics, and he is not afraid to make a trade if he gets an offer for more than that and he is not afraid to keep Rondo if no one meets his price.

He probably feels the same way about Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, and Jared Sullinger.

[ssspence]

Detroit will not trade Drummond for Rondo.

This.

[sofutomygaha]

It's not going to happen. It puts too much faith in the idea that the Cs will attract free agents. They can't. If Rondo is traded it is part of a trade to get a superstar.

Cman- I think that might be the point. This is all predicated on the belief that Drummond will be a superstar, and relatively soon.

[chambers]

Ainge wants to move Rondo and Dumars knows this.

I'm not convinced that this is true.

I think Ainge has Rondo pegged at a certain value, probably higher than other GMs due to the use of analytics, and he is not afraid to make a trade if he gets an offer for more than that and he is not afraid to keep Rondo if no one meets his price.

He probably feels the same way about Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, and Jared Sullinger.

You are right about him loving the statistics/numbers but in saying that do you think keeping Rondo is keeping a numbers guy like Danny from increasing his percentages in a loaded draft?
That's why I'm assuming he wants to move him considering there's only 2 years on his deal.

[Evantime34]

I would do a package of Drummond, Villanueva and Stuckey for Rondo and Wallace or Monroe, Knight and Stuckey for Rondo. To me that is fair value for someone who in his last healthy season garnered mvp votes. The Pistons won't give up this much and the C's aren't forced to move Rondo, so no trade will happen.

[LooseCannon]

Ainge wants to move Rondo and Dumars knows this.

I'm not convinced that this is true.

I think Ainge has Rondo pegged at a certain value, probably higher than other GMs due to the use of analytics, and he is not afraid to make a trade if he gets an offer for more than that and he is not afraid to keep Rondo if no one meets his price.

He probably feels the same way about Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, and Jared Sullinger.

You are right about him loving the statistics/numbers but in saying that do you think keeping Rondo is keeping a numbers guy like Danny from increasing his percentages in a loaded draft?
That's why I'm assuming he wants to move him considering there's only 2 years on his deal.

It depends on just how much those percentages get increased.  If he thinks it will make the Celtics go from the 12th-worst record to the 8th-worst record or if he thinks the Celtics end up in the bottom five even with Rondo, then maybe not.  If he thinks it will drop the Celtics from the 9th-worst record to the 2nd, then maybe he'd consider it.

If the Celtics are on a pace to just barely miss the playoffs, I can see Ainge deciding it would be more valuable to try to make a small deal to improve the team and make the playoffs, earn some extra money, and get players like Sullinger and Olynyk some experience in a playoff atmosphere than to end up with a late lottery pick and a tiny but real chance of getting lucky.

[BballTim]

The Pistons want Rondo. Ainge knows this.
Ainge wants to move Rondo and Dumars knows this.

  I don't think there's any evidence that Ainge wants to move Rondo. He might, but there's no evidence of that.

[Monkhouse]

There is no evidence that is clear Ainge wants to move Rondo. There is also no way Dumars would even think of moving Drummond. But if he had to choose out of the 3 big men, Drummond would most likely be the one on the trading block. Monroe has a good skill set for a big men, nice mid range, can actually shoot a free throw, and has promise to be one of the top 5 big men in due time.

The problem is Dumars is like the Nuggets, but relatively better. He has a influx of big men, but no spots for them to really take control, and be situated in a starting spot. Drummond can start next year in my opinion, with the way he's been playing last year, and in the SL. It is no doubt he was one of the strongest players in SL, and could've easily done much more damage had his minutes not been reduced, or games sat.

Dumars need to start realizing he has good pieces. If I were him, I'd stick it out with Knight, who defensively is rising up in the ranks. If Smith wants to complains about the lack of a true PG, then I'd put him on the trading block. He may be in his prime, but as far as I'm concerned, Smith is the lesser of the two. Defensively he's the strongest anchor, but once his prime is over, and his athleticism wanes, there isn't much to his game.

Smith may be requesting that Dumars goes for Rondo, but Ainge is certainly not going to trade him for anything less than a superstar or a franchise player. The Pistons have no number one pick, and Ainge is clearly re-building and tanking at the same time. You don't rebuild without getting any picks or anything else of equal value in return. Drummond has huge potential, but it isn't exactly proven on the big screen. Ainge knows this. He could be a bust, or he could be the best big man in a few years.

There is absolutely no proof Drummond will ever become top 5 big man in the future. Just the potential, which isn't enough to warrant a trade as of yet.

I'd build up Rondo's true trade value which is nothing less than a top 10 player in the league for him.