Compelling Argument on why Boston needs to trade Rondo now

[LarBrd33]

I just saw this linked by Alex Kennedy on his twitter:

http://www.hoopsworld.com/the-time-to-trade-rajon-rondo-is-now

It's an interesting article.  Curious what everyone thinks.

Some of the arguments in his article is that Rondo's a poor offensive player who lead a declining offense over the past few years in spite of having above-average offensive players in KG, PIerce and Ray.  Additionally, he argues that Rondo's athleticism was already in decline prior to the injury... and that ROndo relies on his athleticism.  Most importantly, he argues that Rondo will be in a free agent in a couple years and the tanking Celtics are at a severe risk of losing rondo for nothing if they don't do something sooner rather than later.  Lots of other thoughts in there.  Check it out.

The biggest reason to trade Rondo now is his contract situation.  His deal, which pays him just short of $25 million over the next two years, was considered one of the great bargains in the NBA prior to his ACL injury, but it expires after the 2014-15 season, when he will be 29...

...Given Rondo’s previous level of performance and his reliance on already declining athleticism (more on that below), he is very unlikely to be worth his next contract.

But Rondo is an All-Star!  He led the league in assists per game the last two years!  He had 37 consecutive games of 10+ assists!  He gets triple-doubles on national TV!  All true, but I still maintain that Rondo is an overrated offensive player because of his poor shooting.  The Celtics have ranked 15th, 18th, 25th, and 24th in offense* the last four seasons, and Rondo’s offensive deficiencies have contributed mightily to that lowly offensive showing.  Until last year, Rondo shared the court with what most would consider above-average offensive players at the 2-4 spots: Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.  So how then were the Celtics so mediocre-to-bad on offense?  A partial explanation is their record-low offensive rebounding, but another is that Rondo gums up the spacing by being unable to shoot jumpers, get to the line or make the free throws he does get.

Rondo’s traditional box score numbers are lauded, but this is in large part because ancient Indian mathematicians decided to make 10 the lowest number expressed with two digits.  By PER, a method which weights all box score contributions, Rondo ranked 11th among pure point guards in 2012-13 and 17th the year before.  So his team isn’t good at offense, and his individual statistics taken as a whole are closer to average than elite. Meanwhile Rondo’s defense, once a nightly terror, now seems to wax and wane on a nightly basis as he has aged.  All told, I think Rondo has been closer to the 10th-best point guard in the league the last few years than the top of the list.*

So Rondo was already closer to good than great before his injury.  What happens as he ages coming off his ACL injury?  While the sample size is small, evidence shows that players with ACL injuries suffer the greatest declines in True Shooting Percentage (which measures shooting accounting for the effect of threes and free throws) and usage rate (which measures the percentage of team possessions the players “uses” via a shot or turnover).  Unfortunately, these are the two areas where Rondo has the least room for error.  Among point guards, he ranked 61st and 47th in TS% and 30th and 22nd in usage rate the last two years.  From watching the games, his relatively poor shooting and scoring are already a problem for the Celtics’ offense–if these get worse it could mean big problems for his game.

etc

[LarBrd33]

That article reads like a Rondo hater's Bible.  It's an interesting article, though. 

[lightspeed5]

just another article saying he played with 3 hall of famers which boosted his stats.

tired of this argument.

The other argument in the article is that he is less athletic because he doesnt dunk anymore. You have got to be kidding me.

[LarBrd33]

just another article saying he played with 3 hall of famers which boosted his stats.

tired of this argument.

The other argument is that he is less athletic because he doesnt dunk anymore. You have got to be kidding me.

I agree the dunk argument was weak.  I did find the bit about Rondo's contract situation interesting, though.   Say Rondo takes the whole season to recover from the ACL injury...

Then he comes back in 2014-15 as a sitting duck final year of his contract for a terrible Celtic team that he probably doesn't enjoy playing for.  That'd be a problem.  Even bigger problem if Rondo gets exposed when he returns as being an overhyped benefactor of hall-of-famers... we'd be in a tough position.

[Yogi]

The years of Paul, Ray and KG being great offensive players are long gone.  Without Rondo, they were all awful offensively.  Did he not watch the Celtics in the playoffs?  How about Ray in Miami? 11 ppg at 45%?

Rondo is a poor shooter?  He has always shot a high percentage, and his mid-range jump shot has improved every year to being one of the best in the league. 

I hate when lazy "reporters" who can't do their jobs publish a bunch of misconceptions under the name of analysis. 

[revtodd64]

I don't buy it for several reasons:
1. Rondo is a smart player and can still pass and be a great point guard without blazing speed.  He is tough and can play in the playoffs with one arm.  He does not have to be the most athletic PG in the league to be really good. 

2. His trade value is low now.  Ainge knows a few triple-doubles will increase his value.  Why does he need to go now?  Ainge can trade him any time before his contract expires.  Will he really be less valuable next offseason?  How about his contract year?  Won't he really push then so he can get a max deal somewhere?   

3.  Rondo is a competitor and will work to improve his game and silence the doubters. 

4.  Ainge is not a fool and will not sell Rondo low.  He may not trade Rondo at all if no one comes up with a great trade for the Celtics.  No way he trades Rondo for expiring contracts or a mediocre player.  He does not have to trade him now or at all. 

[CelticsFan9]

I think the article brings up some valid concerns about the Celtics keeping Rondo.

However, I think someone could just as easily write a piece referencing many things that are great about keeping Rondo around.

Personally, I'd let him come back, see how he gels with Stevens and the crew, and go from there.  I trust Danny to make the right decision.

I certainly wouldn't trade him right now, as his value has to be pretty low (because of the knee injury).

[Celtics4ever]

It's not that compelling.  The contract part is really not compelling.  I think it would be wise to keep him until it is closer to expiring.   If it is such a great contract why give up on it now.

Also, the part of NBA ballers peaking at 27 is a joke.   I think NBA are not fully developed until 27.   I have seen guys perform at peak levels until early 30's.  He lost all credibility at this one.

[timobusa]

I sometimes think that, all these writer just write for the sake of writing something.

Or they are rooting against Boston, and they want a top 10 player out of our roster.


Not buying it.
Try again, media people.

[bobbyv]

Enough of this stupid 3 All star arguments. Anyone watching the Celtics these past 2 years know Rondo was arguably our best player (I can see the argument for KG). His defense is not as good as it used to be, but his jumper is improving.

I think Doc River's offense is just as much to blame as Rondo. His jump shooting offense was a major reason why we had a lot of offensive droughts.
 
Using dunks to measure athleticism? Really?

[86MaxwellSmart]

there is no rush to trade Rondo now...he's at his all time LOW value,coming off the ACL....Trade deadline might be perfect though.

[clover]

Jeff Green does not have a terrible contract.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

Alex Kennedy is a grade A clown. He's the 'writer' who got mouthpieced by Von Wafer and his agent back in training camp 2010 when Wafer tried floating the story that Delonte attacked him in the locker room.

Kennedy is just pushing someone's agenda, per usual. His 'compelling' argument contradicts itself at every turn. He shows little understanding of Rondo's game, of the NBA game in general, or much anything else except the talking points he eagerly digested from his sources.

 

[LooseCannon]

Also, the part of NBA ballers peaking at 27 is a joke.   I think NBA are not fully developed until 27.   I have seen guys perform at peak levels until early 30's.  He lost all credibility at this one.

I haven't read the latest number-crunching, but I think the general finding is that players are most likely to peak at 28-29.  However, once they hit their peak, that doesn't mean that they hit a rapid decline phase.  A lot of players seem capable of performing close to peak level through age 32.

A decision to trade Rondo depends very heavily on how much Rondo's next contract will cost, if the Celtics should pay that amount, and whether Rondo would be willing to stay if the Celtics are willing pay what he is worth.

Is Hoopsworld the site for people who find Bleacher Report too cerebral?

[Celtics4ever]

I am for keeping Rondo unless we get a light's out deal.   The Asik + Chandler, Knight+ Drummond + Pope, Burke + Heyward or some pieces  deal would temp me though.  Big Rondo fan but I would move anyone with the right deal.  The Detriot one is really intriguing to me.

I haven't read the latest number-crunching, but I think the general finding is that players are most likely to peak at 28-29.  However, once they hit their peak, that doesn't mean that they hit a rapid decline phase.  A lot of players seem capable of performing close to peak level through age 32.

I would agree with this but peaking at 27 as the article implies is not true.   I don't think either Bleacher Report or Hoopsworld are cerebral.