We might not have to tank. We'll be terrible. Celtics win record in 13-14?

[rondoallaturca]

The Celtics should rank in the 20s in defensive efficiency next season.  That alone is enough to push a team out of the playoffs.  But of course that's not all, because I don't see how this team is going to rate highly on offense either.  There is not one primary scorer on this team and I wouldn't put Green in that category without seeing how he looks being defended by small forwards most of the time next season.  He was significantly better on offense against either power forwards or being defended by the lesser wing defender.

Even if this team is mediocre on offense, let's say 17th in offensive efficiency, that coupled with the bad defense, computes out to a bad ball club.

I really didn't know Pierce and Garnett were holding this team back so much or made no difference at all.

Do you think their defensive efficiency will be in the 20's? I think it will be better than that. I think Bradley will play elite defense all season, Green took a leap forward as a defender last year and I expect this to continue growing, Rondo now being "the guy" should be more consistent with his defensive effort.

Bradley is a solid individual defender, but he cannot anchor a whole team's defense like KG could. Furthermore, our best PF defender is now Bass, but he's likely gone. As it stands, Melo is our only true center, and while he's a good shot blocker, he's still incredibly raw. Shifting any number of Randolph, Olynyk, or Sully to center would only worsen our already flaky defense. Green plays solid D, but for his size and athleticism, he could be better. Rondo has progressively gotten worse at defense each year, because every year he gambles more and more for the steal. Until he fixes this, he's going to keep on slipping in the defensive department.

Overall, yes, our defense is going to be very suspect.

[Galeto]

The Celtics should rank in the 20s in defensive efficiency next season.  That alone is enough to push a team out of the playoffs.  But of course that's not all, because I don't see how this team is going to rate highly on offense either.  There is not one primary scorer on this team and I wouldn't put Green in that category without seeing how he looks being defended by small forwards most of the time next season.  He was significantly better on offense against either power forwards or being defended by the lesser wing defender.

Even if this team is mediocre on offense, let's say 17th in offensive efficiency, that coupled with the bad defense, computes out to a bad ball club.

I really didn't know Pierce and Garnett were holding this team back so much or made no difference at all.

Do you think their defensive efficiency will be in the 20's? I think it will be better than that. I think Bradley will play elite defense all season, Green took a leap forward as a defender last year and I expect this to continue growing, Rondo now being "the guy" should be more consistent with his defensive effort.

Just look at the bigs.  Bass is one of the dumbest team defenders in the league.  Humphries is like a rebounding version of Bass and just as soft on defense.  Sullinger is the anti-Bass, a very smart player who can read what is happening but is physically limited.  Melo, who knows what to expect from him?  I just hope he improves his conditioning so he can be more athletic on the court.  And Olynyk, even if he wasn't physically limited with bad hops and a comically short wingspan for his height, is still going to be a rookie and doubtful to be an impactful defender.  Without good bigs, it's really hard to be even average on defense. 

More than that, this team had a history of dropping off big time on defense when KG rested or missed games.  I can't see that changing with this defensive personnel. 

Personally I've always thought Bradley's defense was overrated.  He's great a shrinking the opponent's shot clock and I thought that was his biggest defensive contribution.  As for actually staying in front of his man on defense, I thought he was severely overrated.  He pressured and pressured and then his man would beat him to the basket.  Without bigs who can cover for him, I don't see him pushing the defensive needle too much.

Green improved as an individual defender immensely but his help defense is still poor.  Even if Rondo locks in on defensively, is that really going to make up for the bigs.  I just don't see it.

[Celtics17]

This team won't need to tank, they will pretty much stink! If the goal is to tank then they will simply hold Rondo out longer then need be, and possibly Sully too, then if they are better then expected when Rondo comes back they simply trade him and really tank.

If this Wiggins guy is as good as advertised then maybe it's worth it. Personally if it pays off with a better team sooner I am all for tanking.

[Galeto]

This team won't need to tank, they will pretty much stink! If the goal is to tank then they will simply hold Rondo out longer then need be, and possibly Sully too, then if they are better then expected when Rondo comes back they simply trade him and really tank.

If this Wiggins guy is as good as advertised then maybe it's worth it. Personally if it pays off with a better team sooner I am all for tanking.

The thing about this upcoming draft, if it goes according to plan, which is wishful at best, is that it's not just a Wiggins Draft.  Saying this is a Wiggins Draft is overlooking how close the top rated guys are to each other.  Right now, I think it's a three guy race to being no.1: Wiggins, Randle and Parker. 

Wiggins is not a lock to be the number 1 pick because his skill level needs improving, which is one reason why I don't buy the McGrady comparison.  He has McGrady's body type but take away McGrady's handle and passing ability, which were evident in high school, then you don't have McGrady at all.  Wiggins' shot is also a bit funky.  I'm not sure the any of the 2014 prospects are going to live up to the billing the 2014 draft has already gotten but there are a lot of nice players to possibly rebuild with.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I think the naysayers are sorely mistaken about this season.

You've seen angry Rondo play, and it's magnificent to watch. He has heard everyone doubt him for years, the knock most often being that "he played with 3 HOFers, otherwise he wouldn't be that useful." Given his personality, talent, and attitude, he's going to play with a chip on his shoulder and surprise a lot of people.

Green showed he's very invested in this team, and the team to him as well. At the end of the playoffs, he was carrying us in every way. It was impressive - I admittedly never thought he was capable of that. Despite expected difficulties in the half-court, he, Rondo and Bradley will do well in transition.

If Sully is healthy, he could become very good. And we know Bradley is a beast... he backs down from no one, and he will create havok for someone every game.

Maybe Olynyk surprises us with his contribution. I won't say more than that, though, because I think he'll likely suck lol.

Bass has now proven he peaks when it matters most.

And Wallace has a history of being a very tough player. His contract - and that trade - no doubt sucked... but he may give us enough backbone to squeak out a few wins this year.

Wouldn't count out snagging the 8 seed in the East.

[LilRip]

I think 35 wins would be the absolute ceiling of this team. Wallace and Humphries are MAJOR downgrades from Pierce and KG. lol

[chambers]

If we want lottery we either tank or trade Rondo

There is no way that if Rondo plays, that we will be a lotto team

Rondo is not going to singlehandedly make this young and skills-challenged Celtics team a playoff team.  40 something wins is not easy to come by.

Even if Rondo is fully healthy at the start of the season and goes on to have a great season, the defense should prevent enough victories to jump out of the lottery.  With Bass, Sullinger, Olynyk and Melo as the bigs, this team is going to be terrible at defending the rim and paint.

Interior defense is definitely my biggest concern with this team as currently constituted.  The guards and wings--Rondo, Bradley, Green, Wallace--are going to have to help those guys out by putting a lot of pressure on the opposing offenses, and really working hard out near mid-court to make it difficult for the opponents to get into their offense.  And, I'd love to see them being a high turnover producing team. 

I think they'll definitely have to be a pace pushing team if they want any chance of winning 50% of their games.  I see a lot of the dreaded small ball with Green and Wallace at the forward spots and one of the "bigs" in the middle. 

Done right, I think this will be a fun team to watch, and, yes, I think they'll have a shot at being a playoff team.

I actually don't think it's possible to do it right.
We had KG in the paint last year and scraped our way to a .500 season. There's no scenario where Gerald Wallace,Jeff Green, Rondo and Avery Bradley somehow 'help' enough by forcing turnovers enough to stop a teams advantage inside.
That's just on defense.

How do we score any jumpshots with this squad. How do we get 3 point baskets? No Pierce, no Terry. Our two best shooters gone.
How does this team stop combos like:
Dwight/P Gasol
Randolph/M Gasol
Chandler/Stoudemire
Noah/Boozer
Melo/Chandler Hibbert/West
Robin Lopez/Athony Davis
Nick Vucevic/ Glen Davis
Kanter/Favours
Any team with Al Jeff or Millsap.
I could go on all night.

We will be like Chris Paul's Hornets squad without David West and Tyson Chandler- with and upgraded version of Trevor Ariza in Jeff Green. 

Quite possibly utter garbage?

  Maybe. But just out of curiosity, after the first of the year or so our defense was just as good with KG on the bench as it was when he was in the game. How do you account for that? Why will things be so much worse without KG in November than they were in March?

I haven't heard that. Where'd you see that stat?
I'd have to question how healthy Garnett was at the time when he was playing and if his health affected his defensive impact.

I'd have to see if KG got bad and regressed to the team level or if the team improved to KG's level.
I really doubt it's the second option.

Make me a believer.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/56110/life-without-kg-a-defensive-travesty-for-the-celtics

  But as John Schuhmann of NBA.com first noted on Twitter a few weeks back, Garnett’s life-or-death impact on Boston’s D mysteriously vanished upon the return of Avery Bradley. Since Bradley’s January 2 debut, Boston has been almost exactly as good defensively regardless of whether Garnett plays or sits, and they’ve been a bit better offensively, per NBA.com.


  Congratulations, now you're a believer. But why did it happen, and why did what we saw on the court last spring vary so much from your predictions of what we'll see next year?

I can't believe so easily.
That same article says

But the sample sizes are tiny, and years' worth of evidence suggests Boston is in trouble without Garnett

There is no twisted universe where this Boston Celtics team is as good without Garnett on the floor.
Our opponents points per possession goes up dramatically and we lose a player who ranks 3rd in least allowed opponents point per possession at the center position.

Avery is awesome, he's definitely a key piece to our defense and his permiter protection prevents a tonne of penetration and forces players on the wing to take much harder shots. But he's a 2 guard and he's not altering shots at the basket like KG, or boxing out elite rebounders.

I think I understand what you're trying to say, because there's no way you'd suggest this team could be as good defensively next season without KG on the floor.
 
I love Bradley and he's a premier defender, and he's undoubtedly our best defender now that KG is gone, but there's zero chance of our defense staying in the top 5 in the league without KG. It's going to plummet to 20 at the best.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

I can see this team getting mixed up in a lot of absurdly high (+120 points each way in regulation) scoring games. Whether we win or lose them could be down to the coach who is in charge.

[moylana25]

One thing I love about this thread is that members think the Cs won't win more than 35 games...yet they won what, 40 or 41 this past year??

In the very least I see a push at a mediocre .500 season. Don't forget, that's not a huge accomplishment for the East where teams can waltz into the 7/8 seed whereas those seeds in the West are highly competitive.

[LilRip]

One thing I love about this thread is that members think the Cs won't win more than 35 games...yet they won what, 40 or 41 this past year??

In the very least I see a push at a mediocre .500 season. Don't forget, that's not a huge accomplishment for the East where teams can waltz into the 7/8 seed whereas those seeds in the West are highly competitive.

because there's a big difference between KG and Olynyk or Humphries.

[chambers]

One thing I love about this thread is that members think the Cs won't win more than 35 games...yet they won what, 40 or 41 this past year??

In the very least I see a push at a mediocre .500 season. Don't forget, that's not a huge accomplishment for the East where teams can waltz into the 7/8 seed whereas those seeds in the West are highly competitive.

No Pierce or KG.
No big men that can defend.
No 3 pt shooters.
Re-read the thread if you don't understand why.
Teams like the Hornets are better than us now. They got the 6th pick last year.
Do you think we stand a chance against a team like the Bucks or Wizards?

[Celtics18]

One thing I love about this thread is that members think the Cs won't win more than 35 games...yet they won what, 40 or 41 this past year??

In the very least I see a push at a mediocre .500 season. Don't forget, that's not a huge accomplishment for the East where teams can waltz into the 7/8 seed whereas those seeds in the West are highly competitive.

No Pierce or KG.
No big men that can defend.
No 3 pt shooters.
Re-read the thread if you don't understand why.
Teams like the Hornets are better than us now. They got the 6th pick last year.
Do you think we stand a chance against a team like the Bucks or Wizards?

We'll be battling the Bucks and Wizards for eighth.

[chambers]

How are everyone's predictions looking from July last year now?

[clover]

So far the only team the posters on this thread got more wrong than the Celtics is the Bucks.

[chambers]

So far the only team the posters on this thread got more wrong than the Celtics is the Bucks.

Yeah no one pictured them tanking so hard this season when they were the team that always battled for the playoffs and made pretty good mid round/late lottery picks. Their injury riddled start to the season was good incentive though with such a draft.

I think Milwaulkee and Phoenix are my two biggest surprises.
Everyone else is pretty much where I thought they'd stand. I thought the Cavs may be slightly better than they are but they're coming around with Deng.
Probably didn't expect New York to be so poor but injuries are injuries.