Author Topic: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt  (Read 8093 times)

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In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« on: June 28, 2013, 01:47:49 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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PLEASE READ: I very much look forward to hearing intellectual arguments against this proposition, but so far the majority of these comments completely ignore every major point of this post. I know this is a wordy post, but please at least skim it to get an idea of what I'm trying to say. Thank you.

It seems a lot of people here are embodying the casual fan mindset and thinking that tanking for the 2014 and continuing to pile on assets for further drafts is the absolute best, and only, way to go right now. This post is to show why a much quicker retool that does not involve turning the franchise into a miserable joke for the next few seasons is not just possible, but the better choice.

The whole Thunder model looks so appealing. The Thunder have been championship contenders for a few years now, and look poised to remain that way for many years to come. As such, many lottery teams have tried to go that way. But why aren't teams like Minnesota, Cleveland, and Washington seeing that same success? I mean, none of those teams are even seeing the slightest of improvements over the past few years. Of course, Durant is simply on another level. But did the Nuggets go anywhere when they drafted Carmelo? How about the Raptors with Bosh? Of all these teams, none have become champions, and only the Thunder have been able to become championship contenders. The Thunder model is enticing to say the least, but it requires so much luck and skill. We certainly have the skill in Ainge, but nothing can control that much luck.

The alternative that I believe is much better is MUCH safer that would produce a same result, if not better, than the much riskier tank method. The Pacers came so close to the Finals this year because despite a lack of a superstar, they had solid contributions from the whole team. None of Hill, Stephenson, George, West, or Hibbert have names that truly blow you away, but they all play solid team basketball. With the Spurs, Parker and Ginobili really underproduced in the Finals, and it's arguable that Duncan could be called their "star", but it was guys like Leonard, Green, and even Diaw of all people who were key contributors.

What could Boston do? For some reason, the names that are most often thrown around here are the worst options available. Josh Smith? Al Jefferson? Even Andy Varejao? PASS x3! People do realize that Paul Millsap is available? JJ Hickson or Carl Landry would be an excellent hustle backup if Sully/Olynyk are needed in a trade. Guys like Jarrett Jack and JJ Redick are also available. Moving even further down, a guy like Eric Maynor would be an excellent backup PG behind Rondo. And through trades, even more names are available, like Marcin Gortat.

You may note that none of these names are flashy. There are no Dwight Howard's or Chris Paul's. There aren't even Josh Smith's. But that's the point. As opposed to a Heat model or a Thunder model, look at this as a Pacers/Grizzlies model, if you will.

The Pacers make do with Hill, Stephenson, George, West, and Hibbert. The Grizzlies make do with Conley, Allen, Prince, Randolph, and Gasol. Why couldn't the C's make do with Rondo, Lee, Green, Millsap, and Gortat? That's a solid starting lineup, and Rondo, Green, and Millsap are all proven Heat killers. Say we gave up Bass and Bradley for Gortat. That still means we have Crawford, Sullinger, and Olynyk on the bench, with the potential for guys like Maynor and Aminu to round it out. A bench with a backbone like that looks better than Indiana's and Memphis's, too.

I'll be the first to say that if Boston did this, we'd be a first or second round exit for the first few years. That's always a terrible ending, but I actually WANT this sort of team to be a first or second round exit early on. We'll build experience and chemistry through these exits, and become contenders afterwards. Look at Memphis. They were ousted by a Clippers team led by Vinny Del Negro of all coaches, and came right back to advance all the way to the WCF. Even without Hollins, you can bet that they'll be one of the favorites to come out of the West again this year.

And another thing to consider with all these teams is that all of them can retool on the fly without having to sacrifice a few years of absolute ugliness. The Thunder traded Green and then Harden. The Grizzlies let Mayo walk and traded Gay. And so on. This is what smart teams do. Once they're in a good spot, they don't relinquish it. They don't give it all up for CHANCE of all things in the lottery. If they need to make changes, they do so without blowing everything up. Boston is in this position right now. We have assets, and we could've traded KG/PP for more that didn't involve taking back Gerald Wallace. We have Rondo and Green, two young players entering their prime, on team-friendly contracts. Guys like Gerald Wallace, Deandre Jordan, and Andrea Bargnani are getting paid around what Rondo and Green get paid. Very few teams entering a new era have the privilege of saying they're in a situation like we are right now.

Ainge is a good GM, and I have faith in his plans. It's just incredibly depressing to think that we could've remained a playoff team and then have a legitimate shot in about 2-3 years. Now, we're locked in to be borderline unwatchable for about that same time, and then wait an additional ~5 years after that before we have a shot at being championship contenders.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2013, 02:56:39 PM by rondoallaturca »

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2013, 01:49:04 PM »

Offline lightspeed5

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Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2013, 01:59:51 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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Yeah like that's a sure thing? We're still too good to be picking in the top 8.

Even if we have these assets, everybody is thinking that we can just flip those assets for a top 5 pick. If this draft is really what it is, superstar heavy, what makes you think these teams who will own those would trade their top 5 pick and their future superstars to us?

Our next solution is to tank, tell the players to not compete. Tell them they are not good enough to win by themselves and this this team is headed nowhere. And tell them that the savior of this team is in the draft, as long as we suck. We're playing with players competitiveness, mentality and pride here, it will have a chance of creating a dysfunctional locker room.

You rebuild like this when you have NO core. We have one in Rondo and Green, we have young assets that could be traded for players that are not superstars but could be great pieces. We have cap space next year. And we have a GM that draft good and signs smart. Instead we're gambling  away Rondo and Green's prime years for a shot at this guy which is very slim, all while we are building a losing culture which is the absolute most no-no you should not have in a team.

I pray to the Basketball Gods that Danny Ainge win this gamble. Because if not, we are seeing a long rebuild.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2013, 02:05:25 PM by Yoki_IsTheName »
2019 CStrong Historical Draft 2000s OKC Thunder.
PG: Jrue Holiday / Isaiah Thomas / Larry Hughes
SG: Paul George / Aaron McKie / Bradley Beal
SF: Paul Pierce / Tayshaun Prince / Brian Scalabrine
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Shareef Abdur-Raheem / Ben Simmons
C: Jermaine O'neal / Ben Wallace

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2013, 02:05:13 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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@lightspeed5: Did you even read the thread? Why give up proven assets with Rondo/Green, sacrifice a year, and then wait another 3-5 at minimum for Wiggins to develop with his other young draft picks before becoming a legitimate contender? Oh wait, let me backtrack since we're not even a lock to get Wiggins! Why give up proven assets with Rondo/Green, sacrifice a year (and of all years, 2014 where plenty of other teams who are MUCH worse than us are also tanking), hope we profit from the 2014 draft, and pray that maybe in 3-5 years at minimum, we become contenders again? There's a lot of conditions to that sentence. I don't like it.

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2013, 02:13:12 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Oh man if only we had added Paul Millsap, we could have won 45 games instead of 41... while completely mortgaging our future in the process since KG and Pierce are out of the league in a couple years regardless.


Nah... this was a brilliant move.  There's like 6-7 guys in the 2014 draft that can be all-stars.  Even if we strike out, you're set up very well for the future... and you only get one swing at a "once a decade" draft.  No sense in winning 45 games and tanking in 2015.  You Do it now.

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2013, 02:15:24 PM »

Offline lightspeed5

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@lightspeed5: Did you even read the thread? Why give up proven assets with Rondo/Green, sacrifice a year, and then wait another 3-5 at minimum for Wiggins to develop with his other young draft picks before becoming a legitimate contender? Oh wait, let me backtrack since we're not even a lock to get Wiggins! Why give up proven assets with Rondo/Green, sacrifice a year (and of all years, 2014 where plenty of other teams who are MUCH worse than us are also tanking), hope we profit from the 2014 draft, and pray that maybe in 3-5 years at minimum, we become contenders again? There's a lot of conditions to that sentence. I don't like it.
because KG has bone spurs and PP/KG are fools gold today.

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2013, 02:17:18 PM »

Offline The Playmaker

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Rebuilding doesn't mean you have to get rid of anyone.  Rondo is not going to be ready for the season and probably the same for Sullinger.   We really have no offensive game even if they are healthy.  This team will be drafting in the top 10 (maybe top 5) even if we keep Rondo and Green.

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2013, 02:18:33 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Aside from the Spurs most recent title, the last time a team didn't have at least 2 players drafted in the top 5 on the team was the Shaq and Kobe Lakers (and Kobe was clearly a top five level talent)

Miami - James, Wade, Bosh, Miller, Allen (this year), Howard (last year)
Dallas - Chandler, Kidd
LA - Odom, Gasol
Bos - Garnett, Allen
SAS - Duncan
Miami - Shaq, Wade, Payton, Mourning
SAS - Duncan, G. Robinson
DET - R. Wallace, Billups, Darko
SAS - Duncan, D. Robinson, Smith, Ferry

Most of those teams are also riddled with other lottery picks (and most have at least 4 top 10 draftees on their team).  You win with talent and talent by and large comes from the top 5 picks in the draft.  Even teams like the Pistons that don't have an all time great, still had very high draft picks throughout the team. 
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2013, 02:19:13 PM »

Offline syfy9

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Yeah like that's a sure thing?

Even if we have these assets, everybody is thinking that we can just flip those assets for a top 5 pick. If this draft is really what it is, superstar heavy, what makes you think these teams would trade their top 5 pick and their future superstars to us?

You rebuild like this when you have NO core. We have one in Rondo and Green, we have young assets that could be traded for players that are not superstars but could be great pieces. We have cap space next year. And we have a GM that draft good and signs smart. Instead we're gambling  away Rondo and Green's prime years for a shot at this guy which is very slim, all while we are building a losing culture which is the absolute most no-no you should not have in a team.

I pray to the Basketball Gods that Danny Ainge win this gamble. Because if not, we are seeing a long rebuild.





This isn't like the KD/Greg Oden Draft. There are many other really good consolation prizes here. If we had to tank a year, there's no better year than now.
I like Marcus Smart

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2013, 02:21:03 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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@lightspeed5: I don't understand what that has to do with anything. In both situations, KG/PP are gone.

@LarBrd33: Memphis went from 46 wins to 41 (in a lockout season) to to 56. They're primed to be contenders in a much tougher conference for years to come. You say no to that? Also, again, I don't know why you're bringing up KG/PP being out of the league in a few years regardless. In both situations, like I already said, KG/PP are not on the C's. I'm arguing to retool, and not bringing it back. Generally when you voice a countering opinion, you read the other side's opinion rather than assuming what they're saying.

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2013, 02:21:26 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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so you want us to sign J Smith, big al for big bucks so we can be like the post 2004 Pistons teams signing Ben Gordon and Charlie V and be mediocre for 5 years?

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2013, 02:23:11 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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so you want us to sign J Smith, big al for big bucks so we can be like the post 2004 Pistons teams signing Ben Gordon and Charlie V and be mediocre for 5 years?

Holy freaking crap. Do you not read? I specifically said in my thread that Josh Smith and Al Jefferson are exactly the players we should be AVOIDING.

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2013, 02:26:02 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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Yeah like that's a sure thing?

Even if we have these assets, everybody is thinking that we can just flip those assets for a top 5 pick. If this draft is really what it is, superstar heavy, what makes you think these teams would trade their top 5 pick and their future superstars to us?

You rebuild like this when you have NO core. We have one in Rondo and Green, we have young assets that could be traded for players that are not superstars but could be great pieces. We have cap space next year. And we have a GM that draft good and signs smart. Instead we're gambling  away Rondo and Green's prime years for a shot at this guy which is very slim, all while we are building a losing culture which is the absolute most no-no you should not have in a team.

I pray to the Basketball Gods that Danny Ainge win this gamble. Because if not, we are seeing a long rebuild.





This isn't like the KD/Greg Oden Draft. There are many other really good consolation prizes here. If we had to tank a year, there's no better year than now.

I understand that, but it's still too risky. We don't even know if all of these guys will declare or stay in school.

And like I said, if they are projected to be game changers, no team in the top 5 would trade their top 5 pick for us.

I get the idea, and I hope we are right on this one. I just don't like it, I think it's relying too much on luck while risking Rondo's and Green's prime years, team chemistry and attitude.
2019 CStrong Historical Draft 2000s OKC Thunder.
PG: Jrue Holiday / Isaiah Thomas / Larry Hughes
SG: Paul George / Aaron McKie / Bradley Beal
SF: Paul Pierce / Tayshaun Prince / Brian Scalabrine
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Shareef Abdur-Raheem / Ben Simmons
C: Jermaine O'neal / Ben Wallace

Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2013, 02:28:22 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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@rondo: What if Ainge actually is retooling? He traded away the three oldest players on the roster for a collection of assets that could quickly be parlayed into a revamped win-now roster given the right circumstance/opportunity.

BTW, TP for an excellent post.
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Re: In Summary: Why we should have retooled, not rebuilt
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2013, 02:30:18 PM »

Offline rondoallaturca

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@rondo: What if Ainge actually is retooling? He traded away the three oldest players on the roster for a collection of assets that could quickly be parlayed into a revamped win-now roster given the right circumstance/opportunity.

BTW, TP for an excellent post.

Well, with Ainge, you never know. That's why I said I still have faith in Ainge. He's a smart GM, and I hope realizes we're in an opportunity to compete again without having to go through an extensive nuking of the team.

The thing is, by taking in Gerald Wallace, I fear that it's a sign that Ainge is looking far in the future for our next window of opportunity. But again, anything is possible with Ainge, and I hope you're right.