Author Topic: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.  (Read 10552 times)

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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #30 on: June 28, 2013, 01:07:23 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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I remember this team having 2 HIGH lottery picks and getting stuck at #3 and #6 missing out on one Tim Duncan. The picks are a crap shoot

"Crap shoot" suggests random luck.  The lottery may be a bit of a crap shoot, but the actual picks involve some skill, even late picks.  There are few sure things, but a good drafter is capable of exceeding expectations over the long run, even if he misses here and there on specific picks.

the problem with this is that everyone is gunning for the 2014 draft...specifically...the top 5...even a top 5 can be bust...the list is too long to renumerate...even worse...what if we don't get a top 5 pick in 2014...is rondo playing next year...is rondo being traded...just to name a few...too many variables out there...it truly comes down to luck and ping-pong balls and percentages...i guess gamblers like to play the odds...from my experience...you come out on the short end more times than not by gambling...

Smart gamblers only gamble when the odds are in their favor and they look at the long run as an aggregate of several wagers rather than the small sample size of a single bet.
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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #31 on: June 28, 2013, 01:15:58 PM »

Offline bballee

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I just hate the fact that we have to tank to be competitive. RC Buford never had to resort to tanking, even now that Duncan and Ginobili might be on their way out.

Sure he did.  The Spurs sucked the year The Admiral was out injured (hmmmm Rondo and Sullinger).  Got lucky in the lottery to nab Duncan.

Now Buford has done a masterful job of drafting, scouting overseas, and stashing to prolong their run.  Still their Big Three are nearing the end, and they will be rebuilding.  I expect them to have a down year or three before resurfacing in the hunt.

It would be interesting to get Buford's take, and Pop's too, on this Celtic megadeal.

Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #32 on: June 28, 2013, 01:20:49 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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I just hate the fact that we have to tank to be competitive. RC Buford never had to resort to tanking, even now that Duncan and Ginobili might be on their way out.

Sure he did.  The Spurs sucked the year The Admiral was out injured (hmmmm Rondo and Sullinger).  Got lucky in the lottery to nab Duncan.

Buford never had to resort to tanking because he became GM in 2002.

The Spurs didn't go into 96-97 with a tanking mentality, they just got hit ridiculously hard with injuries.
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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #33 on: June 28, 2013, 01:24:28 PM »

Offline rutzan

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I remember this team having 2 HIGH lottery picks and getting stuck at #3 and #6 missing out on one Tim Duncan. The picks are a crap shoot

"Crap shoot" suggests random luck.  The lottery may be a bit of a crap shoot, but the actual picks involve some skill, even late picks.  There are few sure things, but a good drafter is capable of exceeding expectations over the long run, even if he misses here and there on specific picks.

the problem with this is that everyone is gunning for the 2014 draft...specifically...the top 5...even a top 5 can be bust...the list is too long to renumerate...even worse...what if we don't get a top 5 pick in 2014...is rondo playing next year...is rondo being traded...just to name a few...too many variables out there...it truly comes down to luck and ping-pong balls and percentages...i guess gamblers like to play the odds...from my experience...you come out on the short end more times than not by gambling...

Smart gamblers only gamble when the odds are in their favor and they look at the long run as an aggregate of several wagers rather than the small sample size of a single bet.

to me "smart gambler" is an oxymoron...las vegas was built on the blood, sweat and tears...lots of tears...of "smart gamblers"...

Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #34 on: June 28, 2013, 01:24:40 PM »

Offline LatterDayCelticsfan

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As much I like rebuild thru the draft, and fully expect a Danny Ainge caliber GM to pull it off, I'm not a fan of the method. Oh well, here goes 
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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #35 on: June 28, 2013, 01:33:34 PM »

Offline DoverCeltic

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I would rather rebuild this way than wallow in the purgatory of constant 1 and done playoff runs and poor draft picks. Well done Danny, especially with Brooks. He could be a good trade asset in years to come

Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #36 on: June 28, 2013, 01:40:53 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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I just hate the fact that we have to tank to be competitive. RC Buford never had to resort to tanking, even now that Duncan and Ginobili might be on their way out.


Now Buford has done a masterful job of drafting, scouting overseas, and stashing to prolong their run.  Still their Big Three are nearing the end, and they will be rebuilding.  I expect them to have a down year or three before resurfacing in the hunt.



And why can't Ainge and his staff do the same? He showed he's a very good GM in scouting talent, convincing free agents to come and signing stars in cheap contracts.

KG and Paul maybe old, but they can still offer some production on the court, off the court with their leadership and money business wise. We could still be in the Playoffs and maybe compete for the championship with both of them.

We have these what if's about drafting Wiggins or a star, then it's safe to say that what if Olynyk and KG complimented each other on the court very well? What if we can flip Lee, Bass, Terry, Sullinger, Bradley and our picks for a say Varejao, Gortat or a guy who may not be relatively young but has years left to offer and makes a Rondo/Green/Olynyk core more stronger? What if Danny can be smart and sign free agents next year with our big cap room to help the bench?

I get that we need to rebuild, but rutzan is right. We have Rondo and Green on the prime of their careers, we can still win, all we need is make smart decisions with what we have and we have a GM that is very good in doing so. But we decided to blow it up, suck, and gamble on a superstar in the draft or waste away the prime of our core.
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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #37 on: June 28, 2013, 01:42:21 PM »

Offline LilRip

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As the GM, his idea to compete for the future season is to make sure our team is not competitive this year, hope that the ping pong balls are lucky and land us game changing player.

All while, the GM install a mentality to our team that we are not good enough with players we have, so we'll ship them  for picks so we'll suck even more. And then we get our savior and win us a Championship in the next 4-5 years, after the core of the team is already past his prime.

Danny Ainge is indeed one of the best. I believe he's also a coward from shying away from the challenge of building a winning team without giving the chance of winning the title. Clearly his best idea is to tank rather than draft well from where we are, be smart in signing free agents with the cap room that we have, and flip the assets we already have for that player or draft position we are looking for.

I get the idea, if this works then he's right, we'll be contenders in the future, for long stretches of time.

But what if he doesnt, what if we don't get lucky in the draft? What if we can't flip those multiple picks for someone we are looking for? We will be the Sacramento Kings.

i disagree with this on multiple points. i don't think DA is a "coward" and i don't think he didn't give the team a chance. i also don't think his mentality is "wiggins or bust" as a thread on here is named.

And i think you should use another team other than the Spurs as an example. Those Spurs wouldn't be the same team without Duncan who was the number 1 pick in the lottery and is arguably the greatest PF of all time. As a matter of fact, the Spurs are a prime example of a team that got LUCKY in the draft which is pretty much goes against your whole advocacy of having to depend on the lottery for a franchise-changing talent.

turn Duncan into a player like Brandon Bass and i doubt the Spurs make it very far into this year's playoffs even with Parker-Ginobili and the rest of the crew.
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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #38 on: June 28, 2013, 01:55:35 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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As the GM, his idea to compete for the future season is to make sure our team is not competitive this year, hope that the ping pong balls are lucky and land us game changing player.

All while, the GM install a mentality to our team that we are not good enough with players we have, so we'll ship them  for picks so we'll suck even more. And then we get our savior and win us a Championship in the next 4-5 years, after the core of the team is already past his prime.

Danny Ainge is indeed one of the best. I believe he's also a coward from shying away from the challenge of building a winning team without giving the chance of winning the title. Clearly his best idea is to tank rather than draft well from where we are, be smart in signing free agents with the cap room that we have, and flip the assets we already have for that player or draft position we are looking for.

I get the idea, if this works then he's right, we'll be contenders in the future, for long stretches of time.

But what if he doesnt, what if we don't get lucky in the draft? What if we can't flip those multiple picks for someone we are looking for? We will be the Sacramento Kings.

i disagree with this on multiple points. i don't think DA is a "coward" and i don't think he didn't give the team a chance. i also don't think his mentality is "wiggins or bust" as a thread on here is named.

And i think you should use another team other than the Spurs as an example. Those Spurs wouldn't be the same team without Duncan who was the number 1 pick in the lottery and is arguably the greatest PF of all time. As a matter of fact, the Spurs are a prime example of a team that got LUCKY in the draft which is pretty much goes against your whole advocacy of having to depend on the lottery for a franchise-changing talent.

turn Duncan into a player like Brandon Bass and i doubt the Spurs make it very far into this year's playoffs even with Parker-Ginobili and the rest of the crew.

And we're assuming the same luck that the Spurs got for Duncan will go to us?

You're right, they are lucky but they DID NOT gave away their chance of competing for a shot at Duncan. They played and competed even with injuries and just so happened that we're bad without Robinson.

We are however, can still be a Playoff team, could very well contend, and have a very good GM who can fill in the blanks in order to be competitive in the next years to come. Add to it that we have assets already for this GM to shuffle around and flip into a player who can help us in the future.

Instead, this GM basically said screw competing, let's give away our leaders, who could have help in the development of young players, for late 1st rounders, a contract we will be stuck on for three years so will have a SHOT at a superstar and hope that we are lucky.

Great GM's like Ainge should not rely on luck, but with his skill, his smarts and his eye on scouting talent. Relying on luck is a cowardly way of doing things. He could be right and I HOPE TO BASKETBALL GODS that he is, we get lucky and get that player we wanted with what he did. Since this is a gamble, he could be wrong too, and we will be stuck in mediocrity.

I'd rather be in the Playoffs every year than be in mediocrity praying for luck that the balls bounce our way. And I sure hope the balls bounce our way, because if not, we're in for a long haul of rebuilding.
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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #39 on: June 28, 2013, 01:56:55 PM »

Offline Mr October

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as much as I hate seeing Pierce and Garnett go, Ainge made a great trade for the future of the team. KG and PP are on the verge of retiring. They aren't good enough to lead a team to the promise land as #1 or #2 options anymore.

I find it unbelievable that Ainge was able to get 3 unprotected first round picks for basically a 2 year rental of these aging warriors. One of those picks is 5 years out! No NBA team should ever trade a first rounder 5 years out unless you are getting Lebron James in return. Who knows what state the Nets will be in in 5 years. That could be a lottery pick.

And then flipping Doc, who was loosing the locker room anyway for a Clipper first rounder in 2 years is even more gravy. The Clippers are capable of imploding at anytime.

Even if all 4 of these draft picks remain in the 20s, I still think they have great value. Good franchises have wisened up to the value of first rounders again. These picks could help grease trades during the next few years, or they could help fill a roster with cheap talent, giving the Celtics higher odds that a couple of them will pan out to be good players.

Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #40 on: June 28, 2013, 02:01:45 PM »

Online Boris Badenov

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I remember this team having 2 HIGH lottery picks and getting stuck at #3 and #6 missing out on one Tim Duncan. The picks are a crap shoot

"Crap shoot" suggests random luck.  The lottery may be a bit of a crap shoot, but the actual picks involve some skill, even late picks.  There are few sure things, but a good drafter is capable of exceeding expectations over the long run, even if he misses here and there on specific picks.

the problem with this is that everyone is gunning for the 2014 draft...specifically...the top 5...even a top 5 can be bust...the list is too long to renumerate...even worse...what if we don't get a top 5 pick in 2014...is rondo playing next year...is rondo being traded...just to name a few...too many variables out there...it truly comes down to luck and ping-pong balls and percentages...i guess gamblers like to play the odds...from my experience...you come out on the short end more times than not by gambling...

Smart gamblers only gamble when the odds are in their favor and they look at the long run as an aggregate of several wagers rather than the small sample size of a single bet.

to me "smart gambler" is an oxymoron...las vegas was built on the blood, sweat and tears...lots of tears...of "smart gamblers"...

It's absolutely not an oxymoron. To use your Vegas analogy, if you are playing blackjack doubling on 11 is a smart gamble. Splitting 10s is a dumb gamble.

Both are gambles, one is smart and one is not.

Similarly, tanking in a draft with five potential franchise guys is a smarter gamble than tanking in a draft with one.

Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #41 on: June 28, 2013, 02:07:20 PM »

Offline Mr October

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Danny Ainge is indeed one of the best. I believe he's also a coward from shying away from the challenge of building a winning team without giving the chance of winning the title. Clearly his best idea is to tank rather than draft well from where we are, be smart in signing free agents with the cap room that we have, and flip the assets we already have for that player or draft position we are looking for.


I dont think Ainge is a coward at all. I firmly believe that in the NBA your team is one of 3 things:

1. A legit title contender. A top 5 or 6 team in the NBA overall, with enough offensive firepower and a stingy enough defense to take on any of the top teams.

2. A lottery team, collecting assets - picks, young players, hoping to win the lottery, but primarily building and developing pieces to be used for trading back into contention.

3. A middle of the road team. Unless you have a nice young core of young studs that are evolving into a contender, you are in NBA no mans land. Not good enough to win the whole thing, and not bad enough to get high draft picks.

The Celtics roster was bad last year. I was fooled by their run in 2012. They were a collection of mismatched parts with not enough scorers and not enough size. And and far too many nights they were very difficult to watch struggle against even mediocre teams. It is time to get out of NBA no mans land. It is time to collect assets.

Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #42 on: June 28, 2013, 02:36:16 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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I remember this team having 2 HIGH lottery picks and getting stuck at #3 and #6 missing out on one Tim Duncan. The picks are a crap shoot

"Crap shoot" suggests random luck.  The lottery may be a bit of a crap shoot, but the actual picks involve some skill, even late picks.  There are few sure things, but a good drafter is capable of exceeding expectations over the long run, even if he misses here and there on specific picks.

the problem with this is that everyone is gunning for the 2014 draft...specifically...the top 5...even a top 5 can be bust...the list is too long to renumerate...even worse...what if we don't get a top 5 pick in 2014...is rondo playing next year...is rondo being traded...just to name a few...too many variables out there...it truly comes down to luck and ping-pong balls and percentages...i guess gamblers like to play the odds...from my experience...you come out on the short end more times than not by gambling...

Smart gamblers only gamble when the odds are in their favor and they look at the long run as an aggregate of several wagers rather than the small sample size of a single bet.

to me "smart gambler" is an oxymoron...las vegas was built on the blood, sweat and tears...lots of tears...of "smart gamblers"...

The smart gamblers are the casinos, who view their wagers in aggregate.  Casinos don't get hung up over someone wiling $10m in one night at the craps table.  We shouldn't get hung up over that one pick in that one draft being a mistake, so long as the overall decision-making process is sound.

It's possible to be a professional poker or blackjack player or sports bettor.  It's not possible to be a professional slots player.

Tanking for the 2014 draft may be mathematically sound.  Rerouting Gerald Wallace and two firsts in a sign-and-trade might be incredibly stupid if you do the calculations.
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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #43 on: June 28, 2013, 02:54:36 PM »

Offline LilRip

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As the GM, his idea to compete for the future season is to make sure our team is not competitive this year, hope that the ping pong balls are lucky and land us game changing player.

All while, the GM install a mentality to our team that we are not good enough with players we have, so we'll ship them  for picks so we'll suck even more. And then we get our savior and win us a Championship in the next 4-5 years, after the core of the team is already past his prime.

Danny Ainge is indeed one of the best. I believe he's also a coward from shying away from the challenge of building a winning team without giving the chance of winning the title. Clearly his best idea is to tank rather than draft well from where we are, be smart in signing free agents with the cap room that we have, and flip the assets we already have for that player or draft position we are looking for.

I get the idea, if this works then he's right, we'll be contenders in the future, for long stretches of time.

But what if he doesnt, what if we don't get lucky in the draft? What if we can't flip those multiple picks for someone we are looking for? We will be the Sacramento Kings.

i disagree with this on multiple points. i don't think DA is a "coward" and i don't think he didn't give the team a chance. i also don't think his mentality is "wiggins or bust" as a thread on here is named.

And i think you should use another team other than the Spurs as an example. Those Spurs wouldn't be the same team without Duncan who was the number 1 pick in the lottery and is arguably the greatest PF of all time. As a matter of fact, the Spurs are a prime example of a team that got LUCKY in the draft which is pretty much goes against your whole advocacy of having to depend on the lottery for a franchise-changing talent.

turn Duncan into a player like Brandon Bass and i doubt the Spurs make it very far into this year's playoffs even with Parker-Ginobili and the rest of the crew.

And we're assuming the same luck that the Spurs got for Duncan will go to us?

You're right, they are lucky but they DID NOT gave away their chance of competing for a shot at Duncan. They played and competed even with injuries and just so happened that we're bad without Robinson.

We are however, can still be a Playoff team, could very well contend, and have a very good GM who can fill in the blanks in order to be competitive in the next years to come. Add to it that we have assets already for this GM to shuffle around and flip into a player who can help us in the future.

Instead, this GM basically said screw competing, let's give away our leaders, who could have help in the development of young players, for late 1st rounders, a contract we will be stuck on for three years so will have a SHOT at a superstar and hope that we are lucky.

Great GM's like Ainge should not rely on luck, but with his skill, his smarts and his eye on scouting talent. Relying on luck is a cowardly way of doing things. He could be right and I HOPE TO BASKETBALL GODS that he is, we get lucky and get that player we wanted with what he did. Since this is a gamble, he could be wrong too, and we will be stuck in mediocrity.

I'd rather be in the Playoffs every year than be in mediocrity praying for luck that the balls bounce our way. And I sure hope the balls bounce our way, because if not, we're in for a long haul of rebuilding.

Yes, they were lucky which is why your whole argument alluding to them is immediately invalid.

Their current success is predicated on being lucky enough to draft Tim Duncan. You cited how role players like Neal and Green and Leonard played valuable minutes in their playoff run, and that they managed to remain competitive all these years without having to tank, but all that was made possible by getting lucky in that draft with Tim Duncan.

Furthermore, the Spurs last year held the #1 seed for most of the season, ended as a #2 seed, and made it all the way to the Finals. On the other hand, the C's were barely .500 even when Rondo was healthy. And for reference, the Spurs (pre-Duncan) were already like a 60-win team the season prior to being decimated by injuries. They weren't a barely .500 club with aging superstars. So no, they didn't need to tank because they already had a strong team.

If you noticed, not all the teams in the NBA are "tanking" or rebuilding like us. The Heat aren't tanking. The Thunder aren't tanking. 50 win teams don't tank because they know they already have something special. They know they have their core and all they'll need to do is build upon it. They're at that stage. Meanwhile, 2/3rds of the C's core is retiring in a year or two. We won't have them to build upon moving forward. Whether or not we'll tank next year (because the offseason isn't done), the rebuild is definitely underway.

We can be a playoff team, sure. It's easy to be a playoff team. Just ask the Hawks. But this is Boston and we play for titles, not for playoff seeds.

We need to be a contender. And that's hard. the C's team last year showed that they were no longer a contender. I think it was KG or Doc who said, we're more than one piece away. It's extremely hard to acquire a piece, let alone 2, and it gets even harder when we have to do so "without giving away our leaders" as you state it. Because let's face it, no one wants Courtney Lee, Bass, Terry. Our trash is no other team's treasure.

We have a very good GM, agreed, and that's why i applaud him for making this hard decision. It was definitely something i couldn't have done because i'm too attached to both Pierce and KG. Whether or not the trades will be wise, time will tell. But you're absolutely right that he shouldn't rely solely on luck.

What happened on draft night is only the beginning of even more trades/moves. If we don't win the lottery, there are still a plethora of options available to us. We could trade out of the draft for someone else's disgruntled star like Aldridge. We could trade up in the draft or trade down. Or even if we don't go the trading route, we could acquire a gem in the later picks. In our current stable of young players, only Jeff Green was picked in the lottery at #5.

To put anything close to a winning product on the floor, DA still needs to rely on "skill, smarts, eye for talent, etc." like you mentioned. I mean, even if we do win the lottery, and we're able to draft Wiggins, DA would still need every bit of skill and smarts to build a real contender. Cleveland lost Lebron. Denver lost Melo. Acquiring top talent via lottery does not mean the GM's job is done.

So don't think these of trades are cowardly. This is not the "easy way out". There is no easy way in building a contender. Even acquiring KG and Ray Allen took a lot of good drafting, stockpiling talent, trading for expired contracts, a lot of good timing, and a lot of luck.
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Re: This is why Danny Ainge is one of the best.
« Reply #44 on: June 29, 2013, 05:31:48 AM »

Offline chambers

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Danny Ainge is indeed one of the best. I believe he's also a coward from shying away from the challenge of building a winning team without giving the chance of winning the title. Clearly his best idea is to tank rather than draft well from where we are, be smart in signing free agents with the cap room that we have, and flip the assets we already have for that player or draft position we are looking for.


I dont think Ainge is a coward at all. I firmly believe that in the NBA your team is one of 3 things:

1. A legit title contender. A top 5 or 6 team in the NBA overall, with enough offensive firepower and a stingy enough defense to take on any of the top teams.

2. A lottery team, collecting assets - picks, young players, hoping to win the lottery, but primarily building and developing pieces to be used for trading back into contention.

3. A middle of the road team. Unless you have a nice young core of young studs that are evolving into a contender, you are in NBA no mans land. Not good enough to win the whole thing, and not bad enough to get high draft picks.

The Celtics roster was bad last year. I was fooled by their run in 2012. They were a collection of mismatched parts with not enough scorers and not enough size. And and far too many nights they were very difficult to watch struggle against even mediocre teams. It is time to get out of NBA no mans land. It is time to collect assets.

TP. Couldn't agree more.
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Read that last line again. One more time.