Danny might have stolen 2 or 3 lottery picks

[VitorSullyandKOFan]

Deron Williams hasn't been an elite PG for almost 3 years now.

[PhoSita]

Danny might have engineered his greatest heist since the 2007 Ray/KG swaps

Okay, seriously, that is beyond hyperbolic.

What is with people on these forums being so excited about this trade? I can understand if you think the trade is a good long-term move, and you can certainly make this argument, but I don't understand the people who are coming out and claiming this is some brilliant heist by Danny. It isn't. There is a possibility that this trade, when combined with future moves, will help our rebuild, but there is an equally strong possibility that it does NOTHING to help us.

It is still WAY to early to say something as ridiculous as "greatest heist since the 2007 Ray/KG swaps."

When will you people learn? How many years must there be supposedly strong drafts with "can't miss" prospects like Wiggins that don't pan out? You DO realize the odds are stacked extremely against the Celtics, right?

What Danny did is a high risk/high reward scenario. It might pay off, it might be a disaster. Way too early to tell. Anyone who thinks that this was a SAFE and can't-miss trade doesn't understand how the NBA works, plain and simple.

TP for one of the more astute posts I've read here in quite awhile.

You are quite correct about the uncertainty of this trade. It's fairly apparent that KG and the Captain are at the end of the line, so Ainge had little alternative but to roll the dice with this deal.

As for the hyperbole, that's basically this blog. If it isn't Rondo, it's Ainge.

I agree with the assertion that there's no guarantee that the Celtics get very much of value from those picks.  That's the nature of draft picks.

However, I disagree with the idea that the trade was in some way a risk rather than being safe.

Pierce and KG were at the end of their rope, and the Celtics were most definitely not going to contend for a title this season.  So really in making the trade, the Celtics had very little to lose (except from a sentimental / ticket sales standpoint) and much to gain. 

The Celtics really didn't give up much that was especially valuable to them right now in the trade, and absolutely nothing of future value.  It seems very unlikely to me that they could have gotten a better offer, so it's not like there was an opportunity cost in that sense.  The only opportunity cost was a few million in cap space the Celtics would have gained by keeping Pierce's expiring contract.

[manl_lui]

Danny might have engineered his greatest heist since the 2007 Ray/KG swaps

Okay, seriously, that is beyond hyperbolic.

What is with people on these forums being so excited about this trade? I can understand if you think the trade is a good long-term move, and you can certainly make this argument, but I don't understand the people who are coming out and claiming this is some brilliant heist by Danny. It isn't. There is a possibility that this trade, when combined with future moves, will help our rebuild, but there is an equally strong possibility that it does NOTHING to help us.

It is still WAY to early to say something as ridiculous as "greatest heist since the 2007 Ray/KG swaps."

When will you people learn? How many years must there be supposedly strong drafts with "can't miss" prospects like Wiggins that don't pan out? You DO realize the odds are stacked extremely against the Celtics, right?

What Danny did is a high risk/high reward scenario. It might pay off, it might be a disaster. Way too early to tell. Anyone who thinks that this was a SAFE and can't-miss trade doesn't understand how the NBA works, plain and simple.

TP for one of the more astute posts I've read here in quite awhile.

You are quite correct about the uncertainty of this trade. It's fairly apparent that KG and the Captain are at the end of the line, so Ainge had little alternative but to roll the dice with this deal.

As for the hyperbole, that's basically this blog. If it isn't Rondo, it's Ainge.

I agree with the assertion that there's no guarantee that the Celtics get very much of value from those picks.  That's the nature of draft picks.

However, I disagree with the idea that the trade was in some way a risk rather than being safe.

Pierce and KG were at the end of their rope, and the Celtics were most definitely not going to contend for a title this season.  So really in making the trade, the Celtics had very little to lose (except from a sentimental / ticket sales standpoint) and much to gain. 

The Celtics really didn't give up much that was especially valuable to them right now in the trade, and absolutely nothing of future value.  It seems very unlikely to me that they could have gotten a better offer, so it's not like there was an opportunity cost in that sense.  The only opportunity cost was a few million in cap space the Celtics would have gained by keeping Pierce's expiring contract.

I think we should revisit this thread maybe in 5 years. We have yet to know what he will do with these draft picks. Will he use them to draft a lottery player? or will he trade them for a star player. I don't know about "greatest heist" since 07, because that is a pretty big expectation to compare to. We won a championship vs ...? what, getting a #1 pick who may or may not get us back to the finals?

However, I do trust Danny in making decisions for the Cs, and believe he will continue to do well as our GM

[PhoSita]

I think we should revisit this thread maybe in 5 years. We have yet to know what he will do with these draft picks. Will he use them to draft a lottery player? or will he trade them for a star player. I don't know about "greatest heist" since 07, because that is a pretty big expectation to compare to. We won a championship vs ...? what, getting a #1 pick who may or may not get us back to the finals?

However, I do trust Danny in making decisions for the Cs, and believe he will continue to do well as our GM

Agreed.

Those picks will probably end up being in the 12-20 range.  That's my expectation.

So, we could end up with guys like Roy Hibbert, Josh Smith, Zach Randolph, or Jrue Holiday.

Or we could end up with Javaris Crittenton, Luke Babbitt, Chris Singleton, and Tyler Zeller.

[Fafnir]

I think we should revisit this thread maybe in 5 years. We have yet to know what he will do with these draft picks. Will he use them to draft a lottery player? or will he trade them for a star player. I don't know about "greatest heist" since 07, because that is a pretty big expectation to compare to. We won a championship vs ...? what, getting a #1 pick who may or may not get us back to the finals?

However, I do trust Danny in making decisions for the Cs, and believe he will continue to do well as our GM

Agreed.

Those picks will probably end up being in the 12-20 range.  That's my expectation.

So, we could end up with guys like Roy Hibbert, Josh Smith, Zach Randolph, or Jrue Holiday.

Or we could end up with Javaris Crittenton, Luke Babbitt, Chris Singleton, and Tyler Zeller.

And none of that changes how good of a trade it was at the time when Danny made it.

[LarBrd33]

Deron Williams hasn't been an elite PG for almost 3 years now.

He was an all-star in 2012.

He was a top 7 PG last season.   When healthy, he's about even with Rajon Rondo. 

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

I just hate the uncertainty of these picks and none are guaranteed to be in the lottery.  Really has the possiblity to be boom or bust.  If its bust, this team is looking at a decade of futility which scares the heck out of me.

what were we looking at if we kept PP and KG for another year? I don't see this as a risk at all....

yep. good point! We would have lost them for nothing.

[Neurotic Guy]

You DO realize the odds are stacked extremely against the Celtics, right?

The odds are extremely stacked against any team that relies on trades and draft to rebuild.  Only certain warm-weather and big market teams can rely on free agency to rescue them. 

What Danny did was to increase the likelihood that we'll get lucky in the draft and/or have the assets with which to make trades.   

To get overly enthusiastic is premature, but I don't  downplay the potential value of what Danny got for a coach 2 aging stars. 

[PhoSita]

I think we should revisit this thread maybe in 5 years. We have yet to know what he will do with these draft picks. Will he use them to draft a lottery player? or will he trade them for a star player. I don't know about "greatest heist" since 07, because that is a pretty big expectation to compare to. We won a championship vs ...? what, getting a #1 pick who may or may not get us back to the finals?

However, I do trust Danny in making decisions for the Cs, and believe he will continue to do well as our GM

Agreed.

Those picks will probably end up being in the 12-20 range.  That's my expectation.

So, we could end up with guys like Roy Hibbert, Josh Smith, Zach Randolph, or Jrue Holiday.

Or we could end up with Javaris Crittenton, Luke Babbitt, Chris Singleton, and Tyler Zeller.

And none of that changes how good of a trade it was at the time when Danny made it.

Indeed.  It just means the trade should be assessed based on the fact that those picks could go either way.

[crimson_stallion]

[quote author=RyNye link=topic=66099.msg1505812#msg1505812
What is with people on these forums being so excited about this trade? I can understand if you think the trade is a good long-term move, and you can certainly make this argument, but I don't understand the people who are coming out and claiming this is some brilliant heist by Danny. It isn't. There is a possibility that this trade, when combined with future moves, will help our rebuild, but there is an equally strong possibility that it does NOTHING to help us.
[/quote]

Let me help you with this.

1) Paul Pierce shot 43% from the field last season and was a turnover machine.  He's not the player he once was, and he no longer has the ability to carry a team.  Picking up his option would have forced us to pay him over $10M

2) KG even last year was showing his age.  He put up good games still, but they were less frequent and the poor games happened more often.  This year he is looking practiclly non-existent offensively.  He was due $12M this season.

3) Terry would ave had his uses (as a PG in Rondo's absense) but he is no the player he used to be, and he was due $5M a year over the next few years.

4) We had zero cap space to sign new players - if we kept those guys, we would have been (at best) an 8th seed in the East for one more year

5) KG probably would have retired after this season, Pierce maybe with him.  Maybe Terry too.  Once that happened we would have some decent cap space, but very few picks to draft talent

6) Rookie contacts are amazing value for money.  Doc currently has valuable trade assets in Bradley, Sullinger and Olynyk on this roster and none of them are due more than about $2.5M a year for the remainder of their contracts

7) With mid-to-high first round picks in the past two seasons Doc was able to draft Sully and Olynyk.  Both are talented players with high IQ, who look like they will be productive players in the league for years to come

Now, Danny has actually had pretty good success in drafts lately.  Rondo, Bradley, Sully, Olynyk and Pressey are all examples of cases where DA has overachieved in the draft.  He's very good at picking talent late in drafts...imagine how good he could potentially draft if he gets multiple lottery picks over a few consecutive seasons?

Assuming Danny finds a way to make the Wallace/Hump for Amare deal work, that will give us a $22M expiring contract a year from now.  Combine that with what looks like will be multiple lottery picks over the next few years, then combine that with the young talent we already have.  Imagine if Bradley, Sully and Olynyk develop into above average starters, AND we get a couple of quality lottery picks, AND we get $20M in cap space to sign a max salary free agent two seasons from now.  Then combined that with arguably the best pass-first PG in the league.

That's a hell of a lot of resources that are accrued here, and much of that is only possible because of the Brooklyn trade.

Of course nothing is guaranteed...DA could draft poorly in every draft and we could end up with garbage players...but if we do end up with multiple lottery picks, the chance of us getting a sub-par player in every single one of those draftsis pretty rare. Chances are at least 1 or 2 of those players will be quallity starters.

The trade is considered amazing because draft picks are considered incredibly valuable in today's NBA. Teams will rarely give them up without getting incredible value in return.  Boston picked up what...four first round draft picks AND $17M in expiring contracts (Bogans, Humphries) in return for a coach and two guys who's average age is about 37 and who probably only have a year each left in them.

[Celtics4ever]

If we are honest both PP, Terry and KG were on a decline even while here.  I loved them as players during their tenure here but I think if we evaluate them with our minds and not their heart it was easy to see they were in decline.

PP could not make those last second shots.  KG needed loads of rest.  Terry did not have much in the tank when he got here. 

Danny timed this right.  I bet the Brooklyn fans think we owned that trade given the picks with the performances they have got out of PP and KG.  If nothing else we win the who has more upside fight because it is likely one of those picks has more upside than PP or KG have game left.

[Redz]

What is with people on these forums being so excited about this trade? I can understand if you think the trade is a good long-term move, and you can certainly make this argument, but I don't understand the people who are coming out and claiming this is some brilliant heist by Danny. It isn't. There is a possibility that this trade, when combined with future moves, will help our rebuild, but there is an equally strong possibility that it does NOTHING to help us.

Let me help you with this.

1) Paul Pierce shot 43% from the field last season and was a turnover machine.  He's not the player he once was, and he no longer has the ability to carry a team.  Picking up his option would have forced us to pay him over $10M

2) KG even last year was showing his age.  He put up good games still, but they were less frequent and the poor games happened more often.  This year he is looking practiclly non-existent offensively.  He was due $12M this season.

3) Terry would ave had his uses (as a PG in Rondo's absense) but he is no the player he used to be, and he was due $5M a year over the next few years.

4) We had zero cap space to sign new players - if we kept those guys, we would have been (at best) an 8th seed in the East for one more year

5) KG probably would have retired after this season, Pierce maybe with him.  Maybe Terry too.  Once that happened we would have some decent cap space, but very few picks to draft talent

6) Rookie contacts are amazing value for money.  Doc currently has valuable trade assets in Bradley, Sullinger and Olynyk on this roster and none of them are due more than about $2.5M a year for the remainder of their contracts

7) With mid-to-high first round picks in the past two seasons Doc was able to draft Sully and Olynyk.  Both are talented players with high IQ, who look like they will be productive players in the league for years to come

Now, Danny has actually had pretty good success in drafts lately.  Rondo, Bradley, Sully, Olynyk and Pressey are all examples of cases where DA has overachieved in the draft.  He's very good at picking talent late in drafts...imagine how good he could potentially draft if he gets multiple lottery picks over a few consecutive seasons?

Assuming Danny finds a way to make the Wallace/Hump for Amare deal work, that will give us a $22M expiring contract a year from now.  Combine that with what looks like will be multiple lottery picks over the next few years, then combine that with the young talent we already have.  Imagine if Bradley, Sully and Olynyk develop into above average starters, AND we get a couple of quality lottery picks, AND we get $20M in cap space to sign a max salary free agent two seasons from now.  Then combined that with arguably the best pass-first PG in the league.

That's a hell of a lot of resources that are accrued here, and much of that is only possible because of the Brooklyn trade.

Of course nothing is guaranteed...DA could draft poorly in every draft and we could end up with garbage players...but if we do end up with multiple lottery picks, the chance of us getting a sub-par player in every single one of those draftsis pretty rare. Chances are at least 1 or 2 of those players will be quallity starters.

The trade is considered amazing because draft picks are considered incredibly valuable in today's NBA. Teams will rarely give them up without getting incredible value in return.  Boston picked up what...four first round draft picks AND $17M in expiring contracts (Bogans, Humphries) in return for a coach and two guys who's average age is about 37 and who probably only have a year each left in them.

Points well made.

Though you did gave a couple of Freudian Danny/Doc slips

[Jon]

[quote author=RyNye link=topic=66099.msg1505812#msg1505812
What is with people on these forums being so excited about this trade? I can understand if you think the trade is a good long-term move, and you can certainly make this argument, but I don't understand the people who are coming out and claiming this is some brilliant heist by Danny. It isn't. There is a possibility that this trade, when combined with future moves, will help our rebuild, but there is an equally strong possibility that it does NOTHING to help us.

Let me help you with this.

1) Paul Pierce shot 43% from the field last season and was a turnover machine.  He's not the player he once was, and he no longer has the ability to carry a team.  Picking up his option would have forced us to pay him over $10M

2) KG even last year was showing his age.  He put up good games still, but they were less frequent and the poor games happened more often.  This year he is looking practiclly non-existent offensively.  He was due $12M this season.

3) Terry would ave had his uses (as a PG in Rondo's absense) but he is no the player he used to be, and he was due $5M a year over the next few years.

4) We had zero cap space to sign new players - if we kept those guys, we would have been (at best) an 8th seed in the East for one more year

5) KG probably would have retired after this season, Pierce maybe with him.  Maybe Terry too.  Once that happened we would have some decent cap space, but very few picks to draft talent

6) Rookie contacts are amazing value for money.  Doc currently has valuable trade assets in Bradley, Sullinger and Olynyk on this roster and none of them are due more than about $2.5M a year for the remainder of their contracts

7) With mid-to-high first round picks in the past two seasons Doc was able to draft Sully and Olynyk.  Both are talented players with high IQ, who look like they will be productive players in the league for years to come

Now, Danny has actually had pretty good success in drafts lately.  Rondo, Bradley, Sully, Olynyk and Pressey are all examples of cases where DA has overachieved in the draft.  He's very good at picking talent late in drafts...imagine how good he could potentially draft if he gets multiple lottery picks over a few consecutive seasons?

Assuming Danny finds a way to make the Wallace/Hump for Amare deal work, that will give us a $22M expiring contract a year from now.  Combine that with what looks like will be multiple lottery picks over the next few years, then combine that with the young talent we already have.  Imagine if Bradley, Sully and Olynyk develop into above average starters, AND we get a couple of quality lottery picks, AND we get $20M in cap space to sign a max salary free agent two seasons from now.  Then combined that with arguably the best pass-first PG in the league.

That's a hell of a lot of resources that are accrued here, and much of that is only possible because of the Brooklyn trade.

Of course nothing is guaranteed...DA could draft poorly in every draft and we could end up with garbage players...but if we do end up with multiple lottery picks, the chance of us getting a sub-par player in every single one of those draftsis pretty rare. Chances are at least 1 or 2 of those players will be quallity starters.

The trade is considered amazing because draft picks are considered incredibly valuable in today's NBA. Teams will rarely give them up without getting incredible value in return.  Boston picked up what...four first round draft picks AND $17M in expiring contracts (Bogans, Humphries) in return for a coach and two guys who's average age is about 37 and who probably only have a year each left in them.
[/quote]

The thing we all need to keep in mind is that the value of the NJ trade is only based on the quality of their picks and/or the potential pick we get for tanking.  Nothing else they sent us means anything. 

Wallace is a burdensome contract who financially straps us more than hanging onto KG would have. 

Humphries does represent a large expiring contract, but so would have Pierce had we picked up his option. 

Marshon Brooks and Keith Bogan are worthless. 

And if salary relief was really the main goal, we should have just not picked up Pierce's options and rode KG out for 2 years (or let him retire). 

So again, this trade could pan out.  But it's really only a good trade if the Brooklyn picks pan out (and remember, if they tank this year, Atlanta is just going to swap picks with them) or we tank so badly we get Wiggins or Parker. 

But all of that is contingent on things playing out a certain way in the future.  By no means should any of us be declaring this deal good or bad at this point.