Which Teams Will Be Worse Than The Celtics Next Season?

[BballTim]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

If the remaining players play at a combined 0.050 ws/48, then that would translate as 8.9WS.  If they played at 0.070WS, it is 12.5WS.  Of Bass, Terry, and Lee, Lee had the lowest WS/48, so if the bench averaged Lee's .082, that's 14.7WS. 

Let's say Bradley's ws48 is the .085 of his breakout season.    That adds 1.6WS.  Let's be crazy optimists and say Green can produce at .12 ws/48.  That adds 1.75WS.  Let's say you under-estimated Rondo/Jordan/Sullinger by another 1WS.

21.85+14.7+1.6+1.75=39.9

Rondo getting back to being a .150 ws48 player for 2800 minutes, upgrading one of the other starters to a 9-11 WS player, plus some other improvement, and you're getting into territory where the team adds up to about 50WS.

Does this math suggest to you that the team has at least an outside shot at being a contender in 2014-2015?  It will take some luck, but so does building through the draft.

You basically just an outlined a best case scenario for me in which the team -- if everything goes right -- becomes a respectable 2nd round type playoff team.

That doesn't strike you as a problem?  To be a contender, you'd have to exchange Bradley or Sullinger for a superstar, MVP caliber player.

  You're doing the same thing he is, your analysis is just slanted in the opposite direction. Although your assessment of the other teams is fairly rosy.

[celtics2]

Season One of a decade long struggle just to be mediocre. This Management Team is absolutely shamefully inept. History repeats in Boston. Boston, just where is that again?? The Town that sold Ruth.

[LEHGOCELTICS]

Hopefully, the 29 other teams will be worse than us next season. #wiggins?

[dreamgreen]

I think we need to wait to see what are team is, right?