Which Teams Will Be Worse Than The Celtics Next Season?

[aingeforthree]

danny isn't done....................
 

That's my feeling as well.  He's always working to improve the team, situation, etc.

People talk a lot about Josh Smith, but I think more likely is the addition of Paul Millsap to our lineup.

Rondo
Bradley
Green
Millsap
Jordan

Sullinger off the pine.

[BballTim]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

  I'd like to see what Green's numbers were post all-star break, I'm not expecting him to be recovering from heart surgery again next fall. Bradley will either do better than that or someone else will be playing. Rondo will average more than 24 minutes a game. Sully and Jordan wout probably play more minutes as well. You're probably looking at the low 30s from that group, not the low 20s. Also, if you think we're trading Lee and/or Bass, what are we getting back, a bigger jumbotron? I'd guess players that would help us win...

[clover]

I like Millsap's game better than Smith's, but they've got just about mirror-opposite shot charts, and Smith's is more complementary with DAJ's.

[nickagneta]

Do people really believe that Lee, Terry and Bass would be on this team and not played on purpose to lose? I don't see that happening at all and because they will play they will be better than

Phoenix
Toronto
Charlotte
New Orleans
Orlando
Sacramento
Detroit
Philadelphia
Washington
Minnesota
Utah

The Celtics, after this trade, are still currently constructed to be better than a bunch of teams in this league but not good enough to make the playoffs. Thinking the team will just sit proven role playing bench players to lose is unrealistic IMHO.

[aingeforthree]

Do people really believe that Lee, Terry and Bass would be on this team and not played on purpose to lose? I don't see that happening at all and because they will play they will be better than

Phoenix
Toronto
Charlotte
New Orleans
Orlando
Sacramento
Detroit
Philadelphia
Washington
Minnesota
Utah

The Celtics, after this trade, are still currently constructed to be better than a bunch of teams in this league but not good enough to make the playoffs. Thinking the team will just sit proven role playing bench players to lose is unrealistic IMHO.

I wouldn't count a Danny Ainge team out of the playoffs regardless.  Still a lot of restructuring to do as this team isn't a finished product.

Shoot, if he hits on his 2 picks in this draft we're right back in the playoffs.

i.e.  Mason Plumlee = Al Horford
      Ricky Ledo = OJ Mayo

I just picked two randoms out of this draft.  All I'm saying is that whomever he picks, if he hits on them, we're right back in the mix.

[PhoSita]

Do people really believe that Lee, Terry and Bass would be on this team and not played on purpose to lose? I don't see that happening at all and because they will play they will be better than

Phoenix
Toronto
Charlotte
New Orleans
Orlando
Sacramento
Detroit
Philadelphia
Washington
Minnesota
Utah

The Celtics, after this trade, are still currently constructed to be better than a bunch of teams in this league but not good enough to make the playoffs. Thinking the team will just sit proven role playing bench players to lose is unrealistic IMHO.

I'm assuming at least 1, if not 2, of those guys gets dumped or traded.  I also think the rest of our bench will be made up of cast-offs like the China guys / Crawford or rookies / undrafted FAs / D-leaguers.



I don't think there's much chance that Minnesota, with a healthy Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, could be worse than our team next year.

If John Wall plays most of the season the Wizards will be significantly better, too.

The Pistons, Raptors, and Sixers all got around 30 wins or better this year, and I'd expect them to be improved at least a little next season.

I don't think the Jazz will be too much worse than they were this season, if at all, even if they lose one of Millsap or Jefferson.

[PhoSita]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

  I'd like to see what Green's numbers were post all-star break, I'm not expecting him to be recovering from heart surgery again next fall. Bradley will either do better than that or someone else will be playing. Rondo will average more than 24 minutes a game. Sully and Jordan wout probably play more minutes as well. You're probably looking at the low 30s from that group, not the low 20s. Also, if you think we're trading Lee and/or Bass, what are we getting back, a bigger jumbotron? I'd guess players that would help us win...

I think Danny would trade Lee / Bass / Terry for expiring contracts or just minor draft considerations.  I don't think the goal would be to get guys who would help us win this year.

I think Rondo will average more than 24 minutes a game, when he plays . . . but I don't expect him to play the entire season.

Rondo played about 2500 minutes a couple years ago when he played in 68 games and averaged 37 minutes a game.  I expect him to average fewer minutes coming back from injury, and I wouldn't be surprised if he plays closer to 60 games than 70.

As for Sullinger and Jordan, I think it'll be tough for them to play a lot more minutes than that.  Sullinger will be working his way back from the disc surgery, and fouls may still be an issue.  Deandre Jordan is hard to play more than 25 minutes a game or so because of fouls / free throw shooting, too.

[LooseCannon]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

If the remaining players play at a combined 0.050 ws/48, then that would translate as 8.9WS.  If they played at 0.070WS, it is 12.5WS.  Of Bass, Terry, and Lee, Lee had the lowest WS/48, so if the bench averaged Lee's .082, that's 14.7WS. 

Let's say Bradley's ws48 is the .085 of his breakout season.    That adds 1.6WS.  Let's be crazy optimists and say Green can produce at .12 ws/48.  That adds 1.75WS.  Let's say you under-estimated Rondo/Jordan/Sullinger by another 1WS.

21.85+14.7+1.6+1.75=39.9

Rondo getting back to being a .150 ws48 player for 2800 minutes, upgrading one of the other starters to a 9-11 WS player, plus some other improvement, and you're getting into territory where the team adds up to about 50WS.

Does this math suggest to you that the team has at least an outside shot at being a contender in 2014-2015?  It will take some luck, but so does building through the draft.

[aingeforthree]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

If the remaining players play at a combined 0.050 ws/48, then that would translate as 8.9WS.  If they played at 0.070WS, it is 12.5WS.  Of Bass, Terry, and Lee, Lee had the lowest WS/48, so if the bench averaged Lee's .082, that's 14.7WS. 

Let's say Bradley's ws48 is the .085 of his breakout season.    That adds 1.6WS.  Let's be crazy optimists and say Green can produce at .12 ws/48.  That adds 1.75WS.  Let's say you under-estimated Rondo/Jordan/Sullinger by another 1WS.

21.85+14.7+1.6+1.75=39.9

Rondo getting back to being a .150 ws48 player for 2800 minutes, upgrading one of the other starters to a 9-11 WS player, plus some other improvement, and you're getting into territory where the team adds up to about 50WS.

Does this math suggest to you that the team has at least an outside shot at being a contender in 2014-2015?  It will take some luck, but so does building through the draft.

You're luck improves though with 2 picks in the first round instead of just 1.

[PhoSita]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

If the remaining players play at a combined 0.050 ws/48, then that would translate as 8.9WS.  If they played at 0.070WS, it is 12.5WS.  Of Bass, Terry, and Lee, Lee had the lowest WS/48, so if the bench averaged Lee's .082, that's 14.7WS. 

Let's say Bradley's ws48 is the .085 of his breakout season.    That adds 1.6WS.  Let's be crazy optimists and say Green can produce at .12 ws/48.  That adds 1.75WS.  Let's say you under-estimated Rondo/Jordan/Sullinger by another 1WS.

21.85+14.7+1.6+1.75=39.9

Rondo getting back to being a .150 ws48 player for 2800 minutes, upgrading one of the other starters to a 9-11 WS player, plus some other improvement, and you're getting into territory where the team adds up to about 50WS.

Does this math suggest to you that the team has at least an outside shot at being a contender in 2014-2015?  It will take some luck, but so does building through the draft.

You basically just an outlined a best case scenario for me in which the team -- if everything goes right -- becomes a respectable 2nd round type playoff team.

That doesn't strike you as a problem?  To be a contender, you'd have to exchange Bradley or Sullinger for a superstar, MVP caliber player.

Still, I just have a hard time seeing things working out as you describe.  I don't think that starting 5 fits together that well, and they'll hurt for scoring pretty badly.  I don't expect the bench to be very good.  Courtney Lee and Brandon Bass do not a good bench make (we learned that this past season).

[SHAQATTACK]

Hopefully none will be worse,

better chance to win a top 5 player.   

[Quetzalcoatl]

Hoefully none will be worse,

better chance to win a top 5 player.   

This is my somewhat plausible best case scenario:

1.) Someone other than Bradley runs the point so he can stay in position all year

2.) Sullinger plays efficient basketball all year and his back is fine

3.) We lose a lot of close games and have a much harder schedule in the first half than the second, but everyone is legitimately trying

4.) Rondo comes back and is shaky for a few weeks, but then rounds into form and we win 55% of the remaining games.  The team looks really confident when we end the season as a result

5.) We just miss the playoffs but never actually tanked

6.) We get the 4th or 5th pick

7.) We deal DeAndre's expiring contract and get someone good. 

8.) We draft Willey Cauley-Stein

[Geo123]

Man what a negative thread.  I think we get J Smith who would drastically change that team (if not maybe Milsap).  Sullinger will come off the bench.  It's Rondo's team no doubt and if he gets his best bud Josh Smith, then things will be interesting.  You put Green, Smith and Jordan up front and you are a running, tremendously athletic team.
Green has to play like the man he showed late in the year.

You need a good shooter definitely but Korver or Reddick are available plus others.  You aren't going to be able to trade Bass, Tery and Lee for expirings.  Maybe one of them.  Plus it's already been reported that there will probably be changes to the trade with the Clips.         

[LooseCannon]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

If the remaining players play at a combined 0.050 ws/48, then that would translate as 8.9WS.  If they played at 0.070WS, it is 12.5WS.  Of Bass, Terry, and Lee, Lee had the lowest WS/48, so if the bench averaged Lee's .082, that's 14.7WS. 

Let's say Bradley's ws48 is the .085 of his breakout season.    That adds 1.6WS.  Let's be crazy optimists and say Green can produce at .12 ws/48.  That adds 1.75WS.  Let's say you under-estimated Rondo/Jordan/Sullinger by another 1WS.

21.85+14.7+1.6+1.75=39.9

Rondo getting back to being a .150 ws48 player for 2800 minutes, upgrading one of the other starters to a 9-11 WS player, plus some other improvement, and you're getting into territory where the team adds up to about 50WS.

Does this math suggest to you that the team has at least an outside shot at being a contender in 2014-2015?  It will take some luck, but so does building through the draft.

You basically just an outlined a best case scenario for me in which the team -- if everything goes right -- becomes a respectable 2nd round type playoff team.

That doesn't strike you as a problem?  To be a contender, you'd have to exchange Bradley or Sullinger for a superstar, MVP caliber player.

Still, I just have a hard time seeing things working out as you describe.  I don't think that starting 5 fits together that well, and they'll hurt for scoring pretty badly.  I don't expect the bench to be very good.  Courtney Lee and Brandon Bass do not a good bench make (we learned that this past season).

It doesn't strike me as a problem because I don't see WS as an absolute determination of value.  I don't need to crunch numbers and end up with a projected 55-win team to feel I have a contender.  It's close enough that I think there is something worth working with.

And my consistent, stated plan is that the team should be sitting and waiting for the opportunity to package a young player like Bradley or Sullinger with a bunch of draft picks in a trade for an All-Star caliber player.  I'd be looking for an older star who a team wants to trade for assets to start a rebuilding phase or a star who is a risk to leave as a free agent with no compensation to his team.  To do this, I would want the Celtics to be a playoff team perceived as one star away from being a contender.

[PhoSita]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

If the remaining players play at a combined 0.050 ws/48, then that would translate as 8.9WS.  If they played at 0.070WS, it is 12.5WS.  Of Bass, Terry, and Lee, Lee had the lowest WS/48, so if the bench averaged Lee's .082, that's 14.7WS. 

Let's say Bradley's ws48 is the .085 of his breakout season.    That adds 1.6WS.  Let's be crazy optimists and say Green can produce at .12 ws/48.  That adds 1.75WS.  Let's say you under-estimated Rondo/Jordan/Sullinger by another 1WS.

21.85+14.7+1.6+1.75=39.9

Rondo getting back to being a .150 ws48 player for 2800 minutes, upgrading one of the other starters to a 9-11 WS player, plus some other improvement, and you're getting into territory where the team adds up to about 50WS.

Does this math suggest to you that the team has at least an outside shot at being a contender in 2014-2015?  It will take some luck, but so does building through the draft.

You basically just an outlined a best case scenario for me in which the team -- if everything goes right -- becomes a respectable 2nd round type playoff team.

That doesn't strike you as a problem?  To be a contender, you'd have to exchange Bradley or Sullinger for a superstar, MVP caliber player.

Still, I just have a hard time seeing things working out as you describe.  I don't think that starting 5 fits together that well, and they'll hurt for scoring pretty badly.  I don't expect the bench to be very good.  Courtney Lee and Brandon Bass do not a good bench make (we learned that this past season).

It doesn't strike me as a problem because I don't see WS as an absolute determination of value.  I don't need to crunch numbers and end up with a projected 55-win team to feel I have a contender.  It's close enough that I think there is something worth working with.

And my consistent, stated plan is that the team should be sitting and waiting for the opportunity to package a young player like Bradley or Sullinger with a bunch of draft picks in a trade for an All-Star caliber player.  I'd be looking for an older star who a team wants to trade for assets to start a rebuilding phase or a star who is a risk to leave as a free agent with no compensation to his team.  To do this, I would want the Celtics to be a playoff team perceived as one star away from being a contender.

I understand your position, and I think it's defensible.

If things worked out that way, I'd be happy.

I don't really agree with the premise, though.  Seems unlikely to me that the group we're talking about would be a playoff team "one star away from being a contender," with enough assets to trade for such a star without compromising the core.