Which Teams Will Be Worse Than The Celtics Next Season?

[2short]

danny isn't done....................
 

[BballTim]

  Trade PP and KG for Jordan and Smith, add a healthy Rondo and Sully and you'll make the playoffs. The team will be fairly solid on defense and the offense won't be as bad as you think.

You can't put 3 guys who are poor to very bad shooters and very poor free throws shooters on the floor together for extended minutes and expect to score very many points.

That team would defend fairly well, at least in theory, but they'd probably score in the 80s every night.  Whatever ground they'd make up by being much better on the offensive boards they'd give up by not having any scorers on the same level as Pierce or Garnett.  So that team might actually be worse offensively than our team was these past couple of years.

  We'll get significantly more shots at the rim with that group than we have in the recent past and more transition points as well. Also more offensive rebounds. Not to mention Rondo was awfully solid on his outside shooting last year.

Getting awfully more shots at the rim doesn't help you much when

a.  the opponent can just foul with impunity b/c your team can't hit free throws

b. there will be 3-4 defenders at the rim every time because they can pack the paint

  A) most teams don't spend the entire game fouling with impunity because they want to keep their players in the game. Also, do you have any evidence that Smith/DJ/Rondo are fouled much more often than other players now? Are we sure this isn't like the infamous "hack-a-Rondo" strategy that people have been fretting over for years but we rarely if ever see in games?

 B) nba teams pack the paint. Everybody seems to think that defenders stick to most players like glue when they don't have the ball, it doesn't happen. Just like claims that teams never guard Rondo.

 C) they'd still have the point guard that can direct an offense/pass the ball better than anyone else in the league, they'd be a better transition team than our current group, and you're *really* kidding yourself if you think a team with Smith and DJ won't get to the rim significantly more than a team with PP/KG.

[PhoSita]

  Trade PP and KG for Jordan and Smith, add a healthy Rondo and Sully and you'll make the playoffs. The team will be fairly solid on defense and the offense won't be as bad as you think.

You can't put 3 guys who are poor to very bad shooters and very poor free throws shooters on the floor together for extended minutes and expect to score very many points.

That team would defend fairly well, at least in theory, but they'd probably score in the 80s every night.  Whatever ground they'd make up by being much better on the offensive boards they'd give up by not having any scorers on the same level as Pierce or Garnett.  So that team might actually be worse offensively than our team was these past couple of years.

  We'll get significantly more shots at the rim with that group than we have in the recent past and more transition points as well. Also more offensive rebounds. Not to mention Rondo was awfully solid on his outside shooting last year.

Getting awfully more shots at the rim doesn't help you much when

a.  the opponent can just foul with impunity b/c your team can't hit free throws

b. there will be 3-4 defenders at the rim every time because they can pack the paint

  A) most teams don't spend the entire game fouling with impunity because they want to keep their players in the game. Also, do you have any evidence that Smith/DJ/Rondo are fouled much more often than other players now? Are we sure this isn't like the infamous "hack-a-Rondo" strategy that people have been fretting over for years but we rarely if ever see in games?

 B) nba teams pack the paint. Everybody seems to think that defenders stick to most players like glue when they don't have the ball, it doesn't happen. Just like claims that teams never guard Rondo.

 C) they'd still have the point guard that can direct an offense/pass the ball better than anyone else in the league, they'd be a better transition team than our current group, and you're *really* kidding yourself if you think a team with Smith and DJ won't get to the rim significantly more than a team with PP/KG.

Oh, I agree with you that Smith and DJ would get to the rim a lot more.

I just think that a modern NBA offense is built on pick and roll, pick and pop, and drive and kick with a solid group of deadeye outside shooters who can also defend and score in transition.

I don't think that team would be very good at the pick and pop or drive and kick parts.  Bradley and Green would pretty much have to spend every possession hanging out in either corner waiting to take a spot up three.


As for fouls, I think the other team will foul with impunity at the rim because they know if they get in the penalty it doesn't matter because 3 of the other team's 4 best players can't hit free throws.

[Celtics4ever]

b. there will be 3-4 defenders at the rim every time because they can pack the paint

That is true, unless we run.  Green, Jordan and Rondo have serious athletic ability and run the court.   We need to fast break so the other team's D can't set up.   We have the horses now.   We won't simpy be prisoner to the half court offense.

Now, the coach might just very do the opposite of that so we lose games.    But if we run you know we are not tanking because it plays to our strengths.   You don't the let the other team, dictate the pace.

[PhoSita]

b. there will be 3-4 defenders at the rim every time because they can pack the paint

That is true, unless we run.  Green, Jordan and Rondo have serious athletic ability and run the court.   We need to fast break so the other team's D can't set up.   We have the horses now.   We won't simpy be prisoner to the half court offense.

Now, the coach might just very do the opposite of that so we lose games.    But if we run you know we are not tanking because it plays to our strengths.   You don't the let the other team, dictate the pace.

The teams that go deep in the playoffs are the ones that can execute in the half-court.

A core of Rondo, Green, Smith, and Jordan would not be very good in the halfcourt.

That's why a team like the Nuggets can win 57 games and still go out rather quietly in the first round.

[Bankshot]

How depressing!

[celticinorlando]

Just no scoring on that team whatsoever.

There is NOTHING DeAndre Jordan can do to make me cheer for him. And the though of Terry playing zero defense and bricking every shot is sad

Sully coming off major back surgery
Terry is OLD and cooked
Rondo coming off knee surgery
Bradley can't be a legit shooting guard on offense

And then the bench....will be awful

I see 30 wins...rondo will not be rushed back...no reason really..

[PhoSita]

Just no scoring on that team whatsoever.

There is NOTHING DeAndre Jordan can do to make me cheer for him. And the though of Terry playing zero defense and bricking every shot is sad

Sully coming off major back surgery
Terry is OLD and cooked
Rondo coming off knee surgery
Bradley can't be a legit shooting guard on offense

And then the bench....will be awful

I see 30 wins...rondo will not be rushed back...no reason really..

Come on, you'll cheer whenever Jeff Green or Deandre Jordan gets a nasty dunk.

[slamtheking]

I'm assuming our starting lineup will be:

Rondo - Bradley - Green - Sullinger - Jordan

With a bench comprised mostly of young guys like Crawford, Williams, Randolph, Melo, the #16 pick, and also Bass.

Guys like Terry, Lee, Caron Butler, and Willie Green could potentially be here, too, depending on the parameters of the trade w/ the Clippers and other moves Danny makes to shed future salary.  I wouldn't expect them to get a ton of minutes.

Here's my definitive list


1. Bobcats
2. Magic
3. Kings
4. Suns
5. Pelicans


I can't think of any other teams who I am 100% confident will have a worse record.  I'd expect the Celtics to end up with somewhere between the 5th and 10th worst record, with the possibility of ending up lower if Rondo misses significant portions of the season.

TBH, of that list, I'd only go with the Bobcats, Pelicans and possibly the Suns.  I'd probably add Toronto to that list though.  Magic and Kings have some talent that could gel this year with better results and the C's might need some time for Rondo and Sully to get back up to speed.  Still not seeing the depth up front and Jordan is a BIG step back from KG.  Also, no one proven to take that  last big shot at the end of games (assuming they're close enough to get to take a big shot in the end.

[celticinorlando]

Just no scoring on that team whatsoever.

There is NOTHING DeAndre Jordan can do to make me cheer for him. And the though of Terry playing zero defense and bricking every shot is sad

Sully coming off major back surgery
Terry is OLD and cooked
Rondo coming off knee surgery
Bradley can't be a legit shooting guard on offense

And then the bench....will be awful

I see 30 wins...rondo will not be rushed back...no reason really..

Come on, you'll cheer whenever Jeff Green or Deandre Jordan gets a nasty dunk.

I will always cheer for the Celtics.I just don't like Jordan.

[BballTim]

  Trade PP and KG for Jordan and Smith, add a healthy Rondo and Sully and you'll make the playoffs. The team will be fairly solid on defense and the offense won't be as bad as you think.

You can't put 3 guys who are poor to very bad shooters and very poor free throws shooters on the floor together for extended minutes and expect to score very many points.

That team would defend fairly well, at least in theory, but they'd probably score in the 80s every night.  Whatever ground they'd make up by being much better on the offensive boards they'd give up by not having any scorers on the same level as Pierce or Garnett.  So that team might actually be worse offensively than our team was these past couple of years.

  We'll get significantly more shots at the rim with that group than we have in the recent past and more transition points as well. Also more offensive rebounds. Not to mention Rondo was awfully solid on his outside shooting last year.

Getting awfully more shots at the rim doesn't help you much when

a.  the opponent can just foul with impunity b/c your team can't hit free throws

b. there will be 3-4 defenders at the rim every time because they can pack the paint

  A) most teams don't spend the entire game fouling with impunity because they want to keep their players in the game. Also, do you have any evidence that Smith/DJ/Rondo are fouled much more often than other players now? Are we sure this isn't like the infamous "hack-a-Rondo" strategy that people have been fretting over for years but we rarely if ever see in games?

 B) nba teams pack the paint. Everybody seems to think that defenders stick to most players like glue when they don't have the ball, it doesn't happen. Just like claims that teams never guard Rondo.

 C) they'd still have the point guard that can direct an offense/pass the ball better than anyone else in the league, they'd be a better transition team than our current group, and you're *really* kidding yourself if you think a team with Smith and DJ won't get to the rim significantly more than a team with PP/KG.

Oh, I agree with you that Smith and DJ would get to the rim a lot more.

I just think that a modern NBA offense is built on pick and roll, pick and pop, and drive and kick with a solid group of deadeye outside shooters who can also defend and score in transition.

I don't think that team would be very good at the pick and pop or drive and kick parts.  Bradley and Green would pretty much have to spend every possession hanging out in either corner waiting to take a spot up three.

  I don't know that they'd do a ton of pick and pop but then everyone's been complaining for years about the team taking too many long 2 point shots. We'd be different, not necessarily worse. The team would have different flaws, not necessarily more (or worse) flaws.

As for fouls, I think the other team will foul with impunity at the rim because they know if they get in the penalty it doesn't matter because 3 of the other team's 4 best players can't hit free throws.

  Again, I don't think teams are going to be in a huge rush to get into foul trouble. Also, when teams shoot the ball they're less likely to score than not score. Putting Smith or Rondo at the line is much less efficient than not fouling them and letting the team shoot.

[Evantime34]

I see both Cleveland and Washington being better and taking the 7 and 8 seed in the playoffs.

East may look like this next year.

1. Maimi
2. Chicago
3. Indiana
4. New York
5. Brooklyn
6. Cleveland
7. Washington
8. Atlanta/Toranto

I got the Celtics holding Rondo out til Jan/Feb and tanking for a 28-54 record.

Good enough for a 7/8 lottery pick in 2014 draft at worse!

If Rondo and Sully are ready to go right when the season starts I think we are better than Cleveland (their team is filled with injury plagued guys), Washington (I just don't trust them to be good for an entire season), Atlanta (if they don't sign Dwight, I wouldn't be surprised if they just sat on their cap space until they can bring in an elite player) and Toronto (Rudy Gay isn't a efficient scorer, and they don't play enough defense to win).

[Celtics18]

Heat
Lakers
Spurs
Thunder
Pacers
Grizzlies
Knicks
Clippers
Nuggets
Hawks
Warriors
Trailblazers
Mavericks
Bucks
Bulls
Pistons
Sixers
Nets
Raptors
Rockets
Suns
Bobcats
Pelicans
Kings
Jazz
Wizards
Timberwolves
Cavs

and

Magic

[PhoSita]

For what it's worth, I took a look at the WS/48 and minutes played numbers for our projected starters for next year and did some basic math / estimation.

Bradley: 2200 minutes (.05 ws/48) --> 2.29 WS
Rondo: 2000 minutes (.125 ws/48) --> 5.21 WS
Green: 2800 minutes (.09 ws/48) --> 5.25 WS
Jordan: 2100 minutes (.145 ws/48) --> 6.3 WS
Sullinger: 2000 minutes (.140 ws/48) --> 5.8 WS

That's 21.85 wins.  How many wins could you expect to get from the bench?

I'm guessing another 5-10, at most.  Much less if we trade Lee and / or Bass.

[mmmmm]

I think it depends on what our goals are.

If our goal is to showcase Jordan for a future trade, then we go ahead and try to play him 30+ minutes a game.   In which case we will suck, but he will accumulate monster rebounding numbers and maybe we can sucker some GM into giving us something good for him.

If we don't do that - i.e, if we try to actually be competitive - then Jordan can't be on the floor for the last 10 minutes of any close game.  He thus will be a <25 minute player.  He won't build up showcase stats and his trade value will evaporate until it is no more than the value of his expiring contract .... which we could have had with KG anyway.   Why did we make the trade, then?

So this tells me we are going to probably get force-fed a whole bunch of Jordan in order to showcase him and we are going to suck our way into the lottery.

Jordan is just such a bad fit for this team - he's a horrible front court mate for Sully - I simply can't believe Danny intends to keep him long.