What's the value of a non-lottery first-round pick?

[LooseCannon]

The Clippers reportedly weren't willing to toss in another first-round pick in the KG/Doc deal.  During the season, it was reported that Ainge's reluctance to add a first-round pick scuttled a three-way deal that would have sent Pierce out and brought back Josh Smith, due to a fear that Smith would end up being a one-year rental.  Another rumor claimed that the Mavericks were reluctant to give away their pick in a deal for Smith (ironic, since they are now reportedly trying to get rid of it).  The Magic were asking for a first-round pick for JJ Redick.  The Spurs, Pacers, and 76ers wanted Redick, but he ended up going to the Bucks in a deal that didn't include a pick.

Teams seem more reluctant to give away picks that have a good chance of being late first-rounders.  Arguably, this means that teams are smarter and less willing to treat these picks as valueless throw-ins.  Yet, in the Clippers non-deal, fans of both teams seemed angry that an asset that they considered to be of little value might hold up a deal.

So, how much is a first round pick really worth?  If you had the 16th pick and the 25th pick, you should be able to package them together to move up how many spots?  If you had the 28th pick, who is the worst player in the league you would trade the pick for straight-up (assuming no salary cap issues)?  If you could trade a 2013 pick for the Hawks' 2014 unprotected pick right now, without knowing what free agents they will sign, what is the highest pick you would be willing to trade in that gamble?

[Monkhouse]

The Clippers reportedly weren't willing to toss in another first-round pick in the KG/Doc deal.  During the season, it was reported that Ainge's reluctance to add a first-round pick scuttled a three-way deal that would have sent Pierce out and brought back Josh Smith, due to a fear that Smith would end up being a one-year rental.  Another rumor claimed that the Mavericks were reluctant to give away their pick in a deal for Smith (ironic, since they are now reportedly trying to get rid of it).  The Magic were asking for a first-round pick for JJ Redick.  The Spurs, Pacers, and 76ers wanted Redick, but he ended up going to the Bucks in a deal that didn't include a pick.

Teams seem more reluctant to give away picks that have a good chance of being late first-rounders.  Arguably, this means that teams are smarter and less willing to treat these picks as valueless throw-ins.  Yet, in the Clippers non-deal, fans of both teams seemed angry that an asset that they considered to be of little value might hold up a deal.

So, how much is a first round pick really worth?  If you had the 16th pick and the 25th pick, you should be able to package them together to move up how many spots?  If you had the 28th pick, who is the worst player in the league you would trade the pick for straight-up (assuming no salary cap issues)?  If you could trade a 2013 pick for the Hawks' 2014 unprotected pick right now, without knowing what free agents they will sign, what is the highest pick you would be willing to trade in that gamble?

I don't care for picks.

But the point is to get the highest pick possible to draft the BPA. That's how we've acquired the assets to bring Ray, and KG here. Through stockpiling assets, and packaging enticing offers that teams needed.

Due to the new CBA, acquiring talent is harder through the draft, because they aren't as easy to grab. The ability to get something that could potentially be a franchise superstar is very appealing.

I just hope the Celtics really try to draft for need. We're not going to go anywhere, but you need role players. There aren't any superstars, or game changers except Giannis, Gobert, Shabazz, and Oladipo imo.

Those 4 have the highest ceiling and potential, next to Porter being the most consistent and best pick.

I don't get why people keep dissing this draft. You need good and valuable role players. Look at Green and Leonard, neither of them are anything exceptional, but yet their making the difference in the finals.

Draft picks are always unexpected, and we've had our fair shares of busts.

I would like DA to either package the picks, or try to draft for needs which could be safe, but effective role players. That way if we tank, we'll still have young and fresh upcoming players who'll try to prove their worth once talent has become officiated.

[PhoSita]

28 + 16 is probably enough to move up to 13 or 14, maybe as high as 12, but unlikely.

Teams value their 1st round picks a lot these days.  If you draft well, that's a quality role player (at least) who you've got under a below-market value contract for 4 years.

That really helps you put a competitive team on the floor without paying the luxury task.

[Monkhouse]

28 + 16 is probably enough to move up to 13 or 14, maybe as high as 12, but unlikely.

Teams value their 1st round picks a lot these days.  If you draft well, that's a quality role player (at least) who you've got under a below-market value contract for 4 years.

That really helps you put a competitive team on the floor without paying the luxury task.

Agreed. Get a good below market value rookie who can do enough to be considered a good role player, and you're already one step ahead of the game.

[Celtics4ever]

This will be a weird draft with some hits later in the draft as the talent seperating the top and the bottom is not the same as usual years.   Most of them are ok propects but not knockouts.

Next year is the year to tank away with two real talents.

[Kiorrik]

Next year is the year to tank away with two real talents.

Would be a riot to see 5 or 6 teams really properly tank. As in, playing each-other and still trying to lose. Wonder what games like that would look like :]

[Fafnir]

Next year is the year to tank away with two real talents.

Would be a riot to see 5 or 6 teams really properly tank. As in, playing each-other and still trying to lose. Wonder what games like that would look like :]

three words Mark Madsen Threes

[Redz]

A coach?

[Quetzalcoatl]

In 2013, they draft class is so flat that there isn't a huge difference between 11-25, so I mean it's probably worthless but you could still hit the jackpot late.  It's probably close to the 2005 draft, where most of the late picks were garbage but David Lee still went 30th and Marcin Gortat went 57th.

In 2014, if you think of it in terms of it being in line with the 2003 draft, there is still some late value:

David West - 18th
Diaw - 21st
Perk - 27th
Steve Blake - 38th
Matt Bonner - 45th
Mo Williams - 46th
Kyle Korver - 51st

One thing I will say though is that I don't want their 2013 pick, because you can't trade back to back picks.  I think they already traded their 2013 pick to get Chris Paul anyways (too lazy to check), but a 2014 pick in the late 20s is worth a 2013 pick in the early teens.

[droopdog7]

The value in first round picks, or any pick for that matter, is that you have the opportunity to hit on a player that would be relatively cheap (compared to a free agent for example).  You also don't have to worry about the cap.

[Roy H.]

Well, for perspective, we got one for Jerome Moiso and another one for Jiri Welsch.  They're not that valuable, unless you hit on the right guy.

[LooseCannon]

Well, for perspective, we got one for Jerome Moiso and another one for Jiri Welsch.  They're not that valuable, unless you hit on the right guy.

One of those was used in a draft-day trade that resulted in Kendrick Perkins, the other was used in a draft-day trade to get Rajon Rondo.

Individual picks might turn out to be busts, but in aggregate, they are useful to a team that is good at drafting.

[gar]

We have done well with mid-first and late second picks so go  figure. What would you give for Tony Parker (# 28)?