Author Topic: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade  (Read 7102 times)

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Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« on: June 14, 2013, 01:18:31 PM »

Offline Celtics Insider

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Haven't posted in a while, but decided to log in and give my thoughts on the latest BOS-LAC rumors.

I REALLY like this rumored trade! But not for the reasons most people do.

Yes, we get two firsts, two young guys with good potential, and a temporary fix to our rebounding problems. That's great. All of those things would really help our team. However, I like this trade for two simple reasons: POINTS AND TURNOVERS!

We can talk all about offensive rebounding, defense, passing, athleticism, basketball IQ., etc., but, when it comes down to it, the more opportunities you get to score points, and the more points you score, the better chance you have of winning.

Neither turns the ball over much. Bledsoe, for a PG, doesn't. Jordan is an upgrade over KG in the turnover aspect. While KG passes more and has more opportunities to commit turnovers, at the end of the day, he still has more turnovers. Plus, I don't think KG should be given the opportunities to pass because I don't think we should pass him the ball (hear me out).

With the introduction of sabermetrics into the sporting world, people have leaned towards a more scientific approach to sports. After reading this --->>>http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html (VERY INTERESTING!) article on why you should go for it on fourth down in football, I thought that similar thinking SHOULD apply to basketball as well!

Points win games, plain and simple. Okay, so should we simply look at players who have the highest PPG? No. If you take 40 shots a game, of course you'll score a lot of points. So is FG% the best indicator? Yes! It comes down too how many points per shot you make. For example, a bad 3PT shooter shoots about .300%, let's say. If his 2PT FG% is .449%, wouldn't it make sense to have him NOT shoots 3PT shots? NO! It's all about expected points based on FG%. If you took 1000 3 pointers and made 300 of them (.300%), you'd acquire 900 points. If you took 1000 2 pointers and made 449 of them (.449%), you'd only acquire 898 points. When you have guys like DeAndre Jordan, a lot of people may say that his FG% is inflated because all his shots are at the rim. But who cares? Who contributes more in the points department: someone who scores 1286 points per 1000 shots (Jordan), or someone who scores just under 1000 (Garnett)?

So what exactly am I suggesting? I am suggesting we keep things simple and build, not around necessarily young players or "stars", but players who will acquire the maximum amount of points with the minimum amount of shots. Players who don't turn the ball over a lot. Have players play to their strengths and forget EVERYTHING else. If you score more per shot shooting 3 pointers, shoot ONLY 3 pointers. At the rim? Shoot ONLY at the rim. Statistically, you'll score more points. Will you be predictable? Yes. But all the greatest Celtics teams were predictable, it never stopped them. Hell, Rondo is predictable in that players know he'll go to the rim. He still does it with success.

If we kept things simple and acquired players who gave us the best PPS, we'd score more and win more games. Now, am I saying go crazy and acquire ALL 3 point shooters? No. For example, DeAndre Jordan would be better than acquiring a center who shot .400% on 3 pointers. They would acquire 1200 points per 1000 3 pointers, while Jordan would acquire 1286 points per 1000 shots at the rim.

While Gordon isn't an IDEAL fit for what I am proposing, Jordan is. He scores points, plain and simple.

I'll most likely get chastised for this, but I think it's an interesting idea. I believe that it would certainly fortify our offense.
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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2013, 01:24:40 PM »

Offline badshar

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Did you really just say Jordan would do more for this team and be more valuable than KG is?

Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2013, 01:25:32 PM »

Offline Celtics Insider

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Did you really just say Jordan would do more for this team and be more valuable than KG is?
No, I said he'd do more in the points department.
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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2013, 01:28:33 PM »

Offline CelticG1

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I feep luke Jordan doesmt really do anything well.

He certainly is not a point scorer unless you think chris wilcox is a point scorer

Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2013, 01:34:57 PM »

Offline Celtics Insider

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I feep luke Jordan doesmt really do anything well.

He certainly is not a point scorer unless you think chris wilcox is a point scorer
Yes, I believe Wilcox is a "point-scorer" when playing to his strengths. He had a big enough sample size to where his FG% was not a flaw. Just because you don't have a high PPG doesn't mean you're not a scorer.

Again, I know that almost everyone will disagree with me. I anticipated that beforehand. However, I still think it is a valid idea. If you want to score more points, why would you not want players who have the highest PPS?
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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2013, 02:04:29 PM »

Offline Celtics Insider

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Also, I didn't mention, but you'd (obviously) have to put FTs in the mix. Figure out how many free throws per shot that players draw in their respective "optimal" shooting areas, and figure the FT% into that equation.

Then, recalculate, and figure out their TRUE PPS from optimal range.
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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2013, 02:13:19 PM »

Offline LGC88

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Haven't posted in a while, but decided to log in and give my thoughts on the latest BOS-LAC rumors.

I REALLY like this rumored trade! But not for the reasons most people do.

Yes, we get two firsts, two young guys with good potential, and a temporary fix to our rebounding problems. That's great. All of those things would really help our team. However, I like this trade for two simple reasons: POINTS AND TURNOVERS!

We can talk all about offensive rebounding, defense, passing, athleticism, basketball IQ., etc., but, when it comes down to it, the more opportunities you get to score points, and the more points you score, the better chance you have of winning.

Neither turns the ball over much. Bledsoe, for a PG, doesn't. Jordan is an upgrade over KG in the turnover aspect. While KG passes more and has more opportunities to commit turnovers, at the end of the day, he still has more turnovers. Plus, I don't think KG should be given the opportunities to pass because I don't think we should pass him the ball (hear me out).

With the introduction of sabermetrics into the sporting world, people have leaned towards a more scientific approach to sports. After reading this --->>>http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html (VERY INTERESTING!) article on why you should go for it on fourth down in football, I thought that similar thinking SHOULD apply to basketball as well!

Points win games, plain and simple. Okay, so should we simply look at players who have the highest PPG? No. If you take 40 shots a game, of course you'll score a lot of points. So is FG% the best indicator? Yes! It comes down too how many points per shot you make. For example, a bad 3PT shooter shoots about .300%, let's say. If his 2PT FG% is .449%, wouldn't it make sense to have him NOT shoots 3PT shots? NO! It's all about expected points based on FG%. If you took 1000 3 pointers and made 300 of them (.300%), you'd acquire 900 points. If you took 1000 2 pointers and made 449 of them (.449%), you'd only acquire 898 points. When you have guys like DeAndre Jordan, a lot of people may say that his FG% is inflated because all his shots are at the rim. But who cares? Who contributes more in the points department: someone who scores 1286 points per 1000 shots (Jordan), or someone who scores just under 1000 (Garnett)?

So what exactly am I suggesting? I am suggesting we keep things simple and build, not around necessarily young players or "stars", but players who will acquire the maximum amount of points with the minimum amount of shots. Players who don't turn the ball over a lot. Have players play to their strengths and forget EVERYTHING else. If you score more per shot shooting 3 pointers, shoot ONLY 3 pointers. At the rim? Shoot ONLY at the rim. Statistically, you'll score more points. Will you be predictable? Yes. But all the greatest Celtics teams were predictable, it never stopped them. Hell, Rondo is predictable in that players know he'll go to the rim. He still does it with success.

If we kept things simple and acquired players who gave us the best PPS, we'd score more and win more games. Now, am I saying go crazy and acquire ALL 3 point shooters? No. For example, DeAndre Jordan would be better than acquiring a center who shot .400% on 3 pointers. They would acquire 1200 points per 1000 3 pointers, while Jordan would acquire 1286 points per 1000 shots at the rim.

While Gordon isn't an IDEAL fit for what I am proposing, Jordan is. He scores points, plain and simple.

I'll most likely get chastised for this, but I think it's an interesting idea. I believe that it would certainly fortify our offense.

I agree with all you said. However it needs a surrounding to ba able to do that.
For example Jordan had Griffin on his side that is a big offensive threat, it gave more space to Jordan to do his rebounds and score at the rim. Also, having an excellent PG like Paul helps being good under the rim.

Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2013, 02:23:44 PM »

Offline Celtics Insider

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I agree with all you said. However it needs a surrounding to ba able to do that.
For example Jordan had Griffin on his side that is a big offensive threat, it gave more space to Jordan to do his rebounds and score at the rim. Also, having an excellent PG like Paul helps being good under the rim.
And I agree with that. I think Rondo would really help clear space at the rim for Jordan and Wilcox (as Rondo has to draw double-teams when driving, as he's so proficient at it). Just one example. Bradley and Rondo's defense gives a bit of cushion and leniency for the entire team to miss some shots. Jordan's offensive rebounding also would give the team more opportunities to score. Lee, many times, seemed Bradley-esque with his defense. Just a few examples. I don't really think that there are many "pure shooters" in the NBA whose lack of defense, rebounding, etc. would do TOO much more harm than good. We have some great young talent on cheap contracts that we could surround with players who maximize their scoring potentials.

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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2013, 02:45:02 PM »

Offline Celtics Insider

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If I'm thinking correctly, here is what the formula would look like for each "zone", to find the "optimal zone":

z = Zone
EP = Expected Output
x 2 or 3 = 2 for two-point shots, 3 for three-point shots

( zFGM/zFGA x 2 or 3 ) + ( [zFTA/zFGA] [FTM/FTA] ) = EO

The "zone" with the highest number would be the player's "optimal zone". This would be taking into consideration how many FTs per FGA in every zone a player draws, and how many of those FTs are made. Players with the highest "optimal zones" would be players we'd go after. Someone please correct me if my math is wrong.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2013, 03:30:19 PM by Celtics Insider »
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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2013, 03:32:55 PM »

Offline Celtics Insider

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z = Zone
zPPS = Zone Points Per Shot
x 2 or 3 = 2 for two-point shots, 3 for three-point shots

( zFGM/zFGA x 2 or 3 ) + ( [zFTA/zFGA] [FTM/FTA] ) = zPPS

Okay, after some editing, I think this is the correct formula. This would tell you every single player's optimal zone(s) and which players in the NBA have the most optimal zones.
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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2013, 03:38:57 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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This is good stuff. You can't just use Points Per Possession scored when analyzing a player you also need to take into account their points per possession allowed.

However, looking for improvement by improving our scoring at the rim and thus making us a more efficient team makes perfect sense.
 
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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2013, 03:50:11 PM »

Offline hardlyyardley

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We have to look at two things....youth of Jordan and Bledsoe....C's are not contenders in any scenario next year

Also for those Jordan bashers....trade him

Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2013, 04:03:20 PM »

Offline Fred Roberts

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I like the idea of 1 more year with healthy Rondo (playoffs), Bradley, Sully, KG, PP (new deal), J. Green, Gorgui Dieng (draft), Fab, Terry, Lee, Bass, Williams, Shav and 2 other guys.

If PP, Doc & KG do not want to come back, then I love this trade. We wouldn't likely draft Dieng w/ Jordan & Fab there, and a Rondo / Bledsoe PG rotation would be nasty. That would free us up to make a different pick at 16 and to continue tweaking to see if we can make a strong team out of the likes of Rondo, Bledsoe, Bradley, Lee, T. Will, Green, Sully, Jordan, Fab, #16 and whatever we can get for Bass, Wilcox, Terry, PP and maybe Bradley.

Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2013, 04:09:20 PM »

Offline Celtics Insider

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We have to look at two things....youth of Jordan and Bledsoe....C's are not contenders in any scenario next year

Also for those Jordan bashers....trade him
But that's my point, we should NOT trade Jordan if we get him. He'd be a valuable asset. While he is a horrible FT shooter, he gets to the line A LOT, considering how many shots he takes (almost 50% of the time, he shoots a FT!). He makes a very high percentage of shots in the paint, and he takes a lot of FTs. While he misses most of them, the sheer amount of FTs he takes not only puts our opponents in foul trouble, but adds to scoring opportunities. He gives us more points per shot in his "optimal zone" (the paint) than most players in the NBA. Also, while not the best defender, he is a formidable one, and he's a great offensive rebounder as well.

If utilized properly, I believe DeAndre Jordan could be one of the best centers in the NBA. His Shaq-esque FT shooting might turn some off, but I still stand by my statement that he would be HUGE for us. EASILY, in my opinion, the most underrated player in the NBA. We'd be foolish not to trade for him.

He should be one of the most-coveted centers in the NBA. Since he is not, we should get him at a bargain (yes, I'm serious) while we still can.
« Last Edit: June 14, 2013, 04:29:32 PM by Celtics Insider »
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Re: Why I like the Clippers/Celtics Rumored Trade
« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2013, 04:29:00 PM »

Offline danglertx

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He gets to the line a lot because people intentionally foul him because he can't hit free throws.  Teams score on slightly more than half of their possessions and you have to throw in some three pointers.  If Jordon only hits 50% and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt there, you are destined to lose every time teams take to fouling him intentionally.

If he was the defensive presence of early Shaq, then maybe you could live with it, but he isn't.