Pacers need a real point guard so bad

[BballTim]

Ah yes because Mario Chalmers is a world beater.

Mario Chalmers has been the 2nd best player on the Heat during this playoff run. Anyway, when you have Lebron you don't need a real point guard, he creates enough for his teammates and gets as many assists himself.

Playoffs - George + Hill = 9.4 assists per game
Playoffs - James + Chalmers = 9.9 assists per game

Given the difference in total points scored by the two teams the numbers are about a wash.


When will people learn that PG's are essentially worthless in determining champions unless your PG is Magic Johnson or Isiah Thomas.

  Probably a little sooner than people will learn that most players at *any* position are worthless unless they're at a level of a Magic or Isiah. Small forwards are fairly worthless unles you have Bird, LeBron or possibly Durant. Shooting guards are worthless unless you have MJ or Kobe. I could go on, but you get the idea.

All Star Appearances for the last 5 champions by position

PG - 0
SG - 4
SF - 2
PF - 4
C - 1

You go back further you get a similar representation, though center catches up with the other positions when you start getting Shaq and Tony Parker in 2007 is the only PG on the list till you hit Isiah.  We aren't talking about all time greats in a number of these all star selections.  That is the point.

  By your analysis center is the second most worthless player. But the point is there's 25 or so all-stars a year, only a few of those will give you a good shot at a title. Pairing those players with other good players will lead you towards a title, what position those players play is relatively unimportant. The Heat won the title last year, are you claiming that if they'd switched Wade for someone like CP or Rose or Westbrook that the team would have been less likely to have won a title? Are you claiming that the 2008 Celts wouldn't have won if you'd swapped Rondo and PP or RA for CP3 or Deron and an average sf or sg? That's ludicrous.

[Moranis]

Ah yes because Mario Chalmers is a world beater.

Mario Chalmers has been the 2nd best player on the Heat during this playoff run. Anyway, when you have Lebron you don't need a real point guard, he creates enough for his teammates and gets as many assists himself.

Playoffs - George + Hill = 9.4 assists per game
Playoffs - James + Chalmers = 9.9 assists per game

Given the difference in total points scored by the two teams the numbers are about a wash.


When will people learn that PG's are essentially worthless in determining champions unless your PG is Magic Johnson or Isiah Thomas.

  Probably a little sooner than people will learn that most players at *any* position are worthless unless they're at a level of a Magic or Isiah. Small forwards are fairly worthless unles you have Bird, LeBron or possibly Durant. Shooting guards are worthless unless you have MJ or Kobe. I could go on, but you get the idea.

All Star Appearances for the last 5 champions by position

PG - 0
SG - 4
SF - 2
PF - 4
C - 1

You go back further you get a similar representation, though center catches up with the other positions when you start getting Shaq and Tony Parker in 2007 is the only PG on the list till you hit Isiah.  We aren't talking about all time greats in a number of these all star selections.  That is the point.

  By your analysis center is the second most worthless player. But the point is there's 25 or so all-stars a year, only a few of those will give you a good shot at a title. Pairing those players with other good players will lead you towards a title, what position those players play is relatively unimportant. The Heat won the title last year, are you claiming that if they'd switched Wade for someone like CP or Rose or Westbrook that the team would have been less likely to have won a title? Are you claiming that the 2008 Celts wouldn't have won if you'd swapped Rondo and PP or RA for CP3 or Deron and an average sf or sg? That's ludicrous.

I have no idea, but the stats bear this out.  Maybe the teams that have elite PG's don't win titles because the PG is the elite player.  Maybe you don't want your #1 option being the guy that brings the ball up and guards the other guy that brings the ball up.  Maybe it is too exhausting.  Maybe if the Heat had a more ball dominant PG (and thus one more likely to be an all star) it would diminish James' effectiveness.  Who knows, but when you look at the last 30 championship teams or so, only 1 had an all star during the same year as the title.  And of the 30 or so runners up only Payton once, Stockton once, Kidd twice, Rondo once, and Westbrook once had an all star PG on the runner up.  Now granted Parker will add another one to one of those categories this year, but that is still just 8 all star PG's from the 60 or championship and/or runner up teams in 30 or so years.  Just 8. 

The numbers don't lie.  Having even an all star PG is meaningless. 

[BballTim]

Ah yes because Mario Chalmers is a world beater.

Mario Chalmers has been the 2nd best player on the Heat during this playoff run. Anyway, when you have Lebron you don't need a real point guard, he creates enough for his teammates and gets as many assists himself.

Playoffs - George + Hill = 9.4 assists per game
Playoffs - James + Chalmers = 9.9 assists per game

Given the difference in total points scored by the two teams the numbers are about a wash.


When will people learn that PG's are essentially worthless in determining champions unless your PG is Magic Johnson or Isiah Thomas.

  Probably a little sooner than people will learn that most players at *any* position are worthless unless they're at a level of a Magic or Isiah. Small forwards are fairly worthless unles you have Bird, LeBron or possibly Durant. Shooting guards are worthless unless you have MJ or Kobe. I could go on, but you get the idea.

All Star Appearances for the last 5 champions by position

PG - 0
SG - 4
SF - 2
PF - 4
C - 1

You go back further you get a similar representation, though center catches up with the other positions when you start getting Shaq and Tony Parker in 2007 is the only PG on the list till you hit Isiah.  We aren't talking about all time greats in a number of these all star selections.  That is the point.

  By your analysis center is the second most worthless player. But the point is there's 25 or so all-stars a year, only a few of those will give you a good shot at a title. Pairing those players with other good players will lead you towards a title, what position those players play is relatively unimportant. The Heat won the title last year, are you claiming that if they'd switched Wade for someone like CP or Rose or Westbrook that the team would have been less likely to have won a title? Are you claiming that the 2008 Celts wouldn't have won if you'd swapped Rondo and PP or RA for CP3 or Deron and an average sf or sg? That's ludicrous.

I have no idea, but the stats bear this out.  Maybe the teams that have elite PG's don't win titles because the PG is the elite player.  Maybe you don't want your #1 option being the guy that brings the ball up and guards the other guy that brings the ball up.  Maybe it is too exhausting.  Maybe if the Heat had a more ball dominant PG (and thus one more likely to be an all star) it would diminish James' effectiveness.  Who knows, but when you look at the last 30 championship teams or so, only 1 had an all star during the same year as the title.  And of the 30 or so runners up only Payton once, Stockton once, Kidd twice, Rondo once, and Westbrook once had an all star PG on the runner up.  Now granted Parker will add another one to one of those categories this year, but that is still just 8 all star PG's from the 60 or championship and/or runner up teams in 30 or so years.  Just 8. 

The numbers don't lie.  Having even an all star PG is meaningless.

  I might just as well say that a team would greatly improve their chances of winning a title by wearing green or gold uniforms and say "the numbers don't lie. All you know is what "the numbers" say about a smallish sampling of teams, not whether you're looking at anything more than a coincidence.

  Oh, and if you're going to go with "numbers don't lie" you should take a better look at your numbers. Magic and Isiah won multiple titles in the last 30 years and were all-stars when they won, also AI was an all-star when he was a runner-up, as was Magic and Isiah. So was DJ. So without even checking rosters your "8" over the last 60 years is over 20 for the last 30 or so years.

  Again, between Magic, Isiah and Billups (ignoring Parker's finals mvp of course) point guards have been the best player on more than 20% of the titles since Magic came into the league and (AI, Kidd(2), Magic(2), Isiah, Rondo, Billups) have been the best player on more than 20% of the runner-ups. And you could arguably add Stockton and Payton to that list.

[Moranis]

I meant 20 or so, just did the math very wrong in my head very fast.  I was clearly indicating since Isiah, so the Bulls first title on, which is clearly a large enough sample size to go on.

[BballTim]

I meant 20 or so, just did the math very wrong in my head very fast.  I was clearly indicating since Isiah, so the Bulls first title on, which is clearly a large enough sample size to go on.

  Well, it's clearly the largest sample size that you can get to before the numbers turn against your claim. I could get a bigger sample size if I took all of the titles since Moses won with the Sixers and skipped the Shaq/Hakeem years and show that center is *by far* the least important position to have a transcendent player at.

[Celtics18]

List of NBA champions, runners up, and  their all stars by position:

Point Guard
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center


80 Lakers (Johnson SG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Sixers (Erving SF)           3
81 Celtics (Archibald PG, Bird PF, Parish C) over Rockets (M. Malone C)    4
82 Lakers (Nixon PG, Johnson SG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Sixers (Erving SF, B. Jones PF)  5
83 Sixers (Cheeks PG, Toney SG, Erving SF, Malone C) over Lakers (Johnson SG, Wilkes SF, Abdul-Jabbar C)  7         
84 Celtics (Bird PF, McHale PF, Parish C) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C)    5
85 Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Celtics (Johnson PG, Bird SF, Parish C)    5
86 Celtics (Bird SF, McHale PF, Parish C) over Rockets (Olajuwon C, Sampson PF)      5
87 Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy SF, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Celtics (Bird SF , Parish C, McHale PF)     6
88 Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy SF, Abdul-Jabbar C]) over Pistons (Thomas PG)    4
89 Pistons (Thomas PG) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C)    3
90 Pistons (Thomas PG, Dumars SG, Rodman PF) over Blazers (Drexler SG)    4
91 Bulls (Jordan SG,) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy PF)     3
92 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Blazers (Drexler SG)    3
93 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Suns (Majerle SG, Barkley PF)     3
94 Rockets (Olajuwon C) over Knicks (Starks SG, Oakley PF, Ewing C)    4
95 Rockets (Olajuwon C) over Magic (Hardaway PG, O’Neal C)     3
96 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Sonics (Payton PG, Kemp PF)     4
97 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Jazz (Stockton PG, Malone PF)     4
98 Bulls (Jordan SG) over Jazz (Malone PF)    2
99 Spurs over Knicks (no all star game)
00 Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Pacers (Miller SG, D. Davis PF)    4
01 Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Sixers (Iverson SG,
Ratliff C)     4
02 Lakers  (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Nets (Kidd PG)   3
03 Spurs (Duncan PF) over Nets (Kidd PG)   2
04 Pistons (B. Wallace C) over Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C)   3
05 Spurs (Ginobili SG, Duncan PF) over Pistons (B. Wallace C)    3
06 Heat (Wade SG, O’Neal C) over Mavericks (Nowitzki PF)       3
07 Spurs(Parker PG, Duncan C) over Cavs (James SF)     3
08 Celtics (Allen SG, Pierce SF, Garnett PF) over Lakers (Bryant SG)    4
09 Lakers (Bryant SG, Gasol C) over Magic (Nelson PG, Lewis PF, Howard C)    5
10 Lakers(Bryant SG) over Celtics(Rondo PG, Pierce SF, Garnett PF)   4
11 Mavericks  (Nowitzki PF) over Heat (Wade, SG James SF, Bosh  PF)         4
12 Heat(Wade SG, James SF, Bosh PF) over Thunder(Westbrook PG, Durant SF)     5
13 Spurs (Parker PG, Duncan C) vs. Heat (Wade SG, James SF, Bosh C)      5     4



Last 34 seasons, 129 all stars played in finals. 

Finalists :  129

23 PGs.  17.8%
30 SGs    23.3%
20 SFs     15.5%
23 PFs     17.8%
33 Cs       25.6%

Champions:   64

9 PGs    14.1%
18 SGs   28.1%
10 SFs    15.6%
9 PFs      14.1%
18 Cs      28.1%


Yes, I have way too much time on my hands.  I do think that this shows that there is no clear cut position where having an all star either guarantees you a title or, alternately, guarantees you not winning a title. 


Note:

I chose to start in 1980 because (1) that's when I started watching NBA basketball and (2) that's what I loosely consider the beginning of the modern NBA era. 

[LooseCannon]

For anyone who has time on their hands, it would be interesting to go through the list of contenders (top 2, maybe top 4 teams each season) and see how many of them had their pg as their worst player in the starting line-up.

[Sketch5]

I think people forget how new and young this team it. They don't need a great PG to win. Hill's not that bad.

 I think what really needs to happen is George and Hibbert just need an other season under their belt. It would have been huge if they had beating the defending champs this year. But most regular constructed teams (this is not you Miami) usally have to go threw some downs before they can be on top.

Jordan didn't win right off, got beat down by NY,Clevland,Pistons before he got his.

Celts were different because they had gotten beaten down as individuals. Then they came together after all their beat downs and got it together. But most teams don't get to be like Boston, or Miami, they have to build with young talent and watch them grow. Some thing we may be going threw soon.

I'd like to see what they do next season. Hibbert and George could be huge with their new confidence.

[Moranis]

List of NBA champions, runners up, and  their all stars by position:

Point Guard
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center


80 Lakers (Johnson SG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Sixers (Erving SF)           3
81 Celtics (Archibald PG, Bird PF, Parish C) over Rockets (M. Malone C)    4
82 Lakers (Nixon PG, Johnson SG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Sixers (Erving SF, B. Jones PF)  5
83 Sixers (Cheeks PG, Toney SG, Erving SF, Malone C) over Lakers (Johnson SG, Wilkes SF, Abdul-Jabbar C)  7         
84 Celtics (Bird PF, McHale PF, Parish C) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C)    5
85 Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Celtics (Johnson PG, Bird SF, Parish C)    5
86 Celtics (Bird SF, McHale PF, Parish C) over Rockets (Olajuwon C, Sampson PF)      5
87 Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy SF, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Celtics (Bird SF , Parish C, McHale PF)     6
88 Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy SF, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Pistons (Thomas PG)    4
89 Pistons (Thomas PG) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C)    3
90 Pistons (Thomas PG, Dumars SG, Rodman PF) over Blazers (Drexler SG)    4
91 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy PF)     3
92 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Blazers (Drexler SG)    3
93 Bulls (Jordan SG) over Suns (Majerle SG, Barkley PF)     3
94 Rockets (Olajuwon C) over Knicks (Starks SG, Oakley PF, Ewing C)    4
95 Rockets (Olajuwon C) over Magic (Hardaway PG, O’Neal C)     3
96 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Sonics (Payton PG, Kemp PF)     4
97 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Jazz (Stockton PG, Malone PF)     4
98 Bulls (Jordan SG) over Jazz (Malone PF)    2
99 Spurs over Knicks (no all star game)
00 Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Pacers (Miller SG, D. Davis PF)    4
01 Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Sixers (Iverson SG,
Ratliff C)     4
02 Lakers  (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Nets (Kidd PG)   3
03 Spurs (Duncan PF) over Nets (Kidd PG)   2
04 Pistons (B. Wallace C) over Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C)   3
05 Spurs (Ginobili SG, Duncan PF) over Pistons (B. Wallace C)    3
06 Heat (Wade SG, O’Neal C) over Mavericks (Nowitzki PF)       3
07 Spurs(Parker PG, Duncan C) over Cavs (James SF)     3
08 Celtics (Allen SG, Pierce SF, Garnett PF) over Lakers (Bryant SG)    4
09 Lakers (Bryant SG, Gasol C) over Magic (Nelson PG, Lewis PF, Howard C)    5
10 Lakers(Bryant SG) over Celtics(Rondo PG, Pierce SF, Garnett PF)   4
11 Mavericks  (Nowitzki PF) over Heat (Wade, SG James SF, Bosh  PF)         4
12 Heat(Wade SG, James SF, Bosh PF) over Thunder(Westbrook PG, Durant SF)     5
13 Spurs (Parker PG, Duncan C) vs. Heat (Wade SG, James SF, Bosh C)      5     4



Last 34 seasons, 129 all stars played in finals. 

Finalists :  129

23 PGs.  17.8%
30 SGs    23.3%
20 SFs     15.5%
23 PFs     17.8%
33 Cs       25.6%

Champions:   64

9 PGs    14.1%
18 SGs   28.1%
10 SFs    15.6%
9 PFs      14.1%
18 Cs      28.1%


Yes, I have way too much time on my hands.  I do think that this shows that there is no clear cut position where having an all star either guarantees you a title or, alternately, guarantees you not winning a title. 


Note:

I chose to start in 1980 because (1) that's when I started watching NBA basketball and (2) that's what I loosely consider the beginning of the modern NBA era.

This proves my point that since Magic and Isiah, having an all star PG is totally meaningless.  So starting in 92, there have been 21 completed championships.  Tony Parker in 2007 is the only PG to win a title and be an all star during that season (he would make it twice if the Spurs win this year).  The losing all star PG's are Hardaway, Payton, Stockton, Kidd, Kidd, Nelson, Rondo, and Westbrook.  So of the 42 teams, just 9 had all star PG's.

SG's 14 winners, 8 runner-ups
SF's 6 winners, 4 runner-ups (you missed Pippen in 93, he wasn't an all star in 91 though)
PF's 5 winners, 10 runner-ups
C's 8 winners, 6 runner-ups

So only SF's are even in the same general ball park as PG's with just 10 total, of course the SF's are on the championship side 6 times to PG's 1.  SG's are the clear winner with 22 total, though obviously Jordan and Bryant account for 12 of them.


And you can say, you can't just start after Magic and Isiah, but we are talking about 21 champions (22 this year), so it isn't just some small sample size (it is also one that has the primes of some of the all time great PG's i.e. Stockton, Payton, Kidd, Nash, as well as guys like Westbrook, Rose, Paul, and Rondo).  Also, with expansion and the rule changes that happened because of Jordan, the game is just different now.  The evidence clearly shows that having an elite level PG just don't yield championships.  Now maybe we are entering a new age and the next 10 champions will all have all star PG's.  If that happens, then the evidence will support it, but right now there is a clear trend and it is trending away from needing an elite PG to win a title and towards a SG (the exact opposite of the 80's where it was the PG's not the SG's that dictated titles - elite big men no matter the generation are critical).

[BballTim]

List of NBA champions, runners up, and  their all stars by position:

Point Guard
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center


80 Lakers (Johnson SG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Sixers (Erving SF)           3
81 Celtics (Archibald PG, Bird PF, Parish C) over Rockets (M. Malone C)    4
82 Lakers (Nixon PG, Johnson SG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Sixers (Erving SF, B. Jones PF)  5
83 Sixers (Cheeks PG, Toney SG, Erving SF, Malone C) over Lakers (Johnson SG, Wilkes SF, Abdul-Jabbar C)  7         
84 Celtics (Bird PF, McHale PF, Parish C) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C)    5
85 Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Celtics (Johnson PG, Bird SF, Parish C)    5
86 Celtics (Bird SF, McHale PF, Parish C) over Rockets (Olajuwon C, Sampson PF)      5
87 Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy SF, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Celtics (Bird SF , Parish C, McHale PF)     6
88 Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy SF, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Pistons (Thomas PG)    4
89 Pistons (Thomas PG) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C)    3
90 Pistons (Thomas PG, Dumars SG, Rodman PF) over Blazers (Drexler SG)    4
91 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy PF)     3
92 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Blazers (Drexler SG)    3
93 Bulls (Jordan SG) over Suns (Majerle SG, Barkley PF)     3
94 Rockets (Olajuwon C) over Knicks (Starks SG, Oakley PF, Ewing C)    4
95 Rockets (Olajuwon C) over Magic (Hardaway PG, O’Neal C)     3
96 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Sonics (Payton PG, Kemp PF)     4
97 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Jazz (Stockton PG, Malone PF)     4
98 Bulls (Jordan SG) over Jazz (Malone PF)    2
99 Spurs over Knicks (no all star game)
00 Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Pacers (Miller SG, D. Davis PF)    4
01 Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Sixers (Iverson SG,
Ratliff C)     4
02 Lakers  (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Nets (Kidd PG)   3
03 Spurs (Duncan PF) over Nets (Kidd PG)   2
04 Pistons (B. Wallace C) over Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C)   3
05 Spurs (Ginobili SG, Duncan PF) over Pistons (B. Wallace C)    3
06 Heat (Wade SG, O’Neal C) over Mavericks (Nowitzki PF)       3
07 Spurs(Parker PG, Duncan C) over Cavs (James SF)     3
08 Celtics (Allen SG, Pierce SF, Garnett PF) over Lakers (Bryant SG)    4
09 Lakers (Bryant SG, Gasol C) over Magic (Nelson PG, Lewis PF, Howard C)    5
10 Lakers(Bryant SG) over Celtics(Rondo PG, Pierce SF, Garnett PF)   4
11 Mavericks  (Nowitzki PF) over Heat (Wade, SG James SF, Bosh  PF)         4
12 Heat(Wade SG, James SF, Bosh PF) over Thunder(Westbrook PG, Durant SF)     5
13 Spurs (Parker PG, Duncan C) vs. Heat (Wade SG, James SF, Bosh C)      5     4



Last 34 seasons, 129 all stars played in finals. 

Finalists :  129

23 PGs.  17.8%
30 SGs    23.3%
20 SFs     15.5%
23 PFs     17.8%
33 Cs       25.6%

Champions:   64

9 PGs    14.1%
18 SGs   28.1%
10 SFs    15.6%
9 PFs      14.1%
18 Cs      28.1%


Yes, I have way too much time on my hands.  I do think that this shows that there is no clear cut position where having an all star either guarantees you a title or, alternately, guarantees you not winning a title. 


Note:

I chose to start in 1980 because (1) that's when I started watching NBA basketball and (2) that's what I loosely consider the beginning of the modern NBA era.

This proves my point that since Magic and Isiah, having an all star PG is totally meaningless.  So starting in 92, there have been 21 completed championships.  Tony Parker in 2007 is the only PG to win a title and be an all star during that season (he would make it twice if the Spurs win this year).  The losing all star PG's are Hardaway, Payton, Stockton, Kidd, Kidd, Nelson, Rondo, and Westbrook.  So of the 42 teams, just 9 had all star PG's.

SG's 14 winners, 8 runner-ups
SF's 6 winners, 4 runner-ups (you missed Pippen in 93, he wasn't an all star in 91 though)
PF's 5 winners, 10 runner-ups
C's 8 winners, 6 runner-ups

So only SF's are even in the same general ball park as PG's with just 10 total, of course the SF's are on the championship side 6 times to PG's 1.  SG's are the clear winner with 22 total, though obviously Jordan and Bryant account for 12 of them.


And you can say, you can't just start after Magic and Isiah, but we are talking about 21 champions (22 this year), so it isn't just some small sample size (it is also one that has the primes of some of the all time great PG's i.e. Stockton, Payton, Kidd, Nash, as well as guys like Westbrook, Rose, Paul, and Rondo).  Also, with expansion and the rule changes that happened because of Jordan, the game is just different now.  The evidence clearly shows that having an elite level PG just don't yield championships.  Now maybe we are entering a new age and the next 10 champions will all have all star PG's.  If that happens, then the evidence will support it, but right now there is a clear trend and it is trending away from needing an elite PG to win a title and towards a SG (the exact opposite of the 80's where it was the PG's not the SG's that dictated titles - elite big men no matter the generation are critical).

  A few things:

  Admit it or not, your sample size is horribly small for the kind of analysis that you're doing. Look at your numbers, 1 great player at any position will drastically affect the results. That's pretty much the definition of too small a sample size. For instance, say Kobe played in the 80s and Magic played during Kobe's era. Suddenly point guards are at the very top of the most important position list and sg goes close to the bottom.

  This would be true unless you're going to claim that teams *can't* win with a superstar pg, but I don't think you are. Which brings me to the other main point:

  You don't have any explanation about why it's true, just possible theories about why it may be. You didn't start out by thinking that great pgs don't help teams win and find out that the numbers bear out your observations, you found (or likely heard about) some data, decided that it was significant and started acting like it's some kind of universal truth. For some unknown reason you ruled out the fact that it might be simple randomness and also decided to ignore the often used caveat "past performance does not guarantee future results".

[Celtics18]

List of NBA champions, runners up, and  their all stars by position:

Point Guard
Shooting Guard
Small Forward
Power Forward
Center


80 Lakers (Johnson SG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Sixers (Erving SF)           3
81 Celtics (Archibald PG, Bird PF, Parish C) over Rockets (M. Malone C)    4
82 Lakers (Nixon PG, Johnson SG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Sixers (Erving SF, B. Jones PF)  5
83 Sixers (Cheeks PG, Toney SG, Erving SF, Malone C) over Lakers (Johnson SG, Wilkes SF, Abdul-Jabbar C)  7         
84 Celtics (Bird PF, McHale PF, Parish C) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C)    5
85 Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Celtics (Johnson PG, Bird SF, Parish C)    5
86 Celtics (Bird SF, McHale PF, Parish C) over Rockets (Olajuwon C, Sampson PF)      5
87 Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy SF, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Celtics (Bird SF , Parish C, McHale PF)     6
88 Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy SF, Abdul-Jabbar C) over Pistons (Thomas PG)    4
89 Pistons (Thomas PG) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Abdul-Jabbar C)    3
90 Pistons (Thomas PG, Dumars SG, Rodman PF) over Blazers (Drexler SG)    4
91 Bulls (Jordan SG,[) over Lakers (Johnson PG, Worthy PF)     3
92 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Blazers (Drexler SG)    3
93 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Suns (Majerle SG, Barkley PF)     3
94 Rockets (Olajuwon C) over Knicks (Starks SG, Oakley PF, Ewing C)    4
95 Rockets (Olajuwon C) over Magic (Hardaway PG, O’Neal C)     3
96 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Sonics (Payton PG, Kemp PF)     4
97 Bulls (Jordan SG, Pippen SF) over Jazz (Stockton PG, Malone PF)     4
98 Bulls (Jordan SG) over Jazz (Malone PF)    2
99 Spurs over Knicks (no all star game)
00 Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Pacers (Miller SG, D. Davis PF)    4
01 Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Sixers (Iverson SG,
Ratliff C)     4
02 Lakers  (Bryant SG, O’Neal C) over Nets (Kidd PG)   3
03 Spurs (Duncan PF) over Nets (Kidd PG)   2
04 Pistons (B. Wallace C) over Lakers (Bryant SG, O’Neal C)   3
05 Spurs (Ginobili SG, Duncan PF) over Pistons (B. Wallace C)    3
06 Heat (Wade SG, O’Neal C) over Mavericks (Nowitzki PF)       3
07 Spurs(Parker PG, Duncan C) over Cavs (James SF)     3
08 Celtics (Allen SG, Pierce SF, Garnett PF) over Lakers (Bryant SG)    4
09 Lakers (Bryant SG, Gasol C) over Magic (Nelson PG, Lewis PF, Howard C)    5
10 Lakers(Bryant SG) over Celtics(Rondo PG, Pierce SF, Garnett PF)   4
11 Mavericks  (Nowitzki PF) over Heat (Wade, SG James SF, Bosh  PF)         4
12 Heat(Wade SG, James SF, Bosh PF) over Thunder(Westbrook PG, Durant SF)     5
13 Spurs (Parker PG, Duncan C) vs. Heat (Wade SG, James SF, Bosh C)      5     4



Last 34 seasons, 129 all stars played in finals. 

Finalists :  129

23 PGs.  17.8%
30 SGs    23.3%
20 SFs     15.5%
23 PFs     17.8%
33 Cs       25.6%

Champions:   64

9 PGs    14.1%
18 SGs   28.1%
10 SFs    15.6%
9 PFs      14.1%
18 Cs      28.1%


Yes, I have way too much time on my hands.  I do think that this shows that there is no clear cut position where having an all star either guarantees you a title or, alternately, guarantees you not winning a title. 


Note:

I chose to start in 1980 because (1) that's when I started watching NBA basketball and (2) that's what I loosely consider the beginning of the modern NBA era.

This proves my point that since Magic and Isiah, having an all star PG is totally meaningless.  So starting in 92, there have been 21 completed championships.  Tony Parker in 2007 is the only PG to win a title and be an all star during that season (he would make it twice if the Spurs win this year).  The losing all star PG's are Hardaway, Payton, Stockton, Kidd, Kidd, Nelson, Rondo, and Westbrook.  So of the 42 teams, just 9 had all star PG's.

SG's 14 winners, 8 runner-ups
SF's 6 winners, 4 runner-ups (you missed Pippen in 93, he wasn't an all star in 91 though)
PF's 5 winners, 10 runner-ups
C's 8 winners, 6 runner-ups

So only SF's are even in the same general ball park as PG's with just 10 total, of course the SF's are on the championship side 6 times to PG's 1.  SG's are the clear winner with 22 total, though obviously Jordan and Bryant account for 12 of them.


And you can say, you can't just start after Magic and Isiah, but we are talking about 21 champions (22 this year), so it isn't just some small sample size (it is also one that has the primes of some of the all time great PG's i.e. Stockton, Payton, Kidd, Nash, as well as guys like Westbrook, Rose, Paul, and Rondo).  Also, with expansion and the rule changes that happened because of Jordan, the game is just different now.  The evidence clearly shows that having an elite level PG just don't yield championships.  Now maybe we are entering a new age and the next 10 champions will all have all star PG's.  If that happens, then the evidence will support it, but right now there is a clear trend and it is trending away from needing an elite PG to win a title and towards a SG (the exact opposite of the 80's where it was the PG's not the SG's that dictated titles - elite big men no matter the generation are critical).

I've always thought it wiser to expand your sample size if you want to get a truer picture of reality.  The fact that you had to shrink it to fit your argument, should bring into question the validity of that argument. 

Do you really believe that having an elite shooting guard gives more than a twice as likely chance at winning a title than having elite players at any other position? 

I think it's more likely that it shows that there happened to be two great players at that position who were put in great situations that allowed their respective teams to win multiple championships. 

When you have a sample size as small as the one you presented, one or two championships won by a team with a player at any given position could wildly skew your trends in one direction or another.  It's a dicey premise to say that based on who has won titles, that there's one specific position that gives you a good shot at a title and that there's another that virtually guarantees that you'll have no shot. 

If the San Antonio Spurs had followed your kind of logic back in '97, they never would have drafted Tim Duncan.  They would have noticed the trend at the time that elite power forwards don't win titles. 

Edit:

Thank you for pointing out my mix up with Pippen in '91 and '93.  I fixed it.

 



 

[Moranis]

I truly believe that the rule changes, the increase in popularity, and the expansion that happened beginning in the early 90's have changed the way the game is played.  Nash and Rose have three MVP's between them and have never even played in the finals.  Stockton, Payton, and Kidd didn't win in their primes (and Stockton never won).  Paul and Williams also have never even made a finals.  You are talking about some of the greatest PG's in the history of the game.  During the last 20 years, Malone and Barkley are the only all time great players at any other position that haven't won a title while in their prime.  Duncan, Shaq, Garnett, James, Jordan, Pippen, Robinson, Olajuwon, and Bryant all have. 

As I said, perhaps the style of play is shifting again and the league is going through another change which happens every 15-20 years or so, so we are due, but it hasn't happened yet.  Maybe if the Spurs (and Parker) win this year it will be the start of a PG revolution (so to speak), but as I said, we just aren't there yet.

[LooseCannon]

Since it is believed that you need to have multiple stars to build a contender, perhaps you should look at teams with multiple All-Stars, where one of those players is a PG, and see what percentage of those teams made the finals and compare that to other positions.

[Celtics18]

I truly believe that the rule changes, the increase in popularity, and the expansion that happened beginning in the early 90's have changed the way the game is played.  Nash and Rose have three MVP's between them and have never even played in the finals.  Stockton, Payton, and Kidd didn't win in their primes (and Stockton never won).  Paul and Williams also have never even made a finals.  You are talking about some of the greatest PG's in the history of the game.  During the last 20 years, Malone and Barkley are the only all time great players at any other position that haven't won a title while in their prime.  Duncan, Shaq, Garnett, James, Jordan, Pippen, Robinson, Olajuwon, and Bryant all have. 

As I said, perhaps the style of play is shifting again and the league is going through another change which happens every 15-20 years or so, so we are due, but it hasn't happened yet.  Maybe if the Spurs (and Parker) win this year it will be the start of a PG revolution (so to speak), but as I said, we just aren't there yet.

You don't put Ewing in that category?  Tracy McGrady is another guy whose all time legacy is marred only by his lack of winning and his injury woes.  When he was at his best, he was right up there with any of them.  I also think that if Nash and Stoudemire could have gotten a title (or maybe even just reached a finals) during their primes, that Amare would be considered in a completely different category among the all-time greats.

Maybe we aren't at the PG revolution just yet, but I believe we are on the cusp.  And, if no team with an elite point guard wins a title over the course of the next half decade or so, it won't be because elite point guard driven teams can't win, but rather because the Heat have Lebron James. 

If Lebron decides to team up with Kyrie Irving back in Cleveland, that will very likely signal the end of the all star point guards as champions drought, though. 

And, back to the original point of this thread, I think it's absolutely crazy to think that if the Indiana Pacers replaced George Hill with any one of Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Derrick Rose, Russ Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Steph Curry, or any other of a relatively large handful of PGs that are considerably better than George Hill that they wouldn't be closer to a title than they are now. 

[fairweatherfan]

I truly believe that the rule changes, the increase in popularity, and the expansion that happened beginning in the early 90's have changed the way the game is played.  Nash and Rose have three MVP's between them and have never even played in the finals.  Stockton, Payton, and Kidd didn't win in their primes (and Stockton never won).  Paul and Williams also have never even made a finals.  You are talking about some of the greatest PG's in the history of the game.  During the last 20 years, Malone and Barkley are the only all time great players at any other position that haven't won a title while in their prime.  Duncan, Shaq, Garnett, James, Jordan, Pippen, Robinson, Olajuwon, and Bryant all have. 

As I said, perhaps the style of play is shifting again and the league is going through another change which happens every 15-20 years or so, so we are due, but it hasn't happened yet.  Maybe if the Spurs (and Parker) win this year it will be the start of a PG revolution (so to speak), but as I said, we just aren't there yet.

What's interesting to me is that over the same period where PGs have been winning fewer championships the number of excellent to elite PGs seems to keep going up.  I don't think there's necessarily a cause-and-effect there but it's an odd juxtaposition.