Teams Looking to Create Cap Space to Sign a Free Agent? Phoenix?

[LooseCannon]

Instead of identifying players I like and coming up with a convoluted reasoning for why the other team might want to send that player to Boston, I prefer to figure out which teams are looking to trade and seeing if I like any of those players.

One of those teams is Phoenix.  While some people would tank for Wiggins in the Suns' shoes, I think they might make a run at a max free agent.  They were reportedly interested in Josh Smith at the trade deadline and they only need to shave a few million off their cap space to sign Smith to the kind of deal he wants.

If Phoenix were to sign Smith, they would have a boatload of power forwards.  They have Luis Scola, Channing Frye (possibly returning from a year off due to an enlarged heart), and the Morris twins.  Also, Michael Beasley.

The Suns would prefer to dump Beasley, but given that new GM Ryan McDonough is a disciple of Danny Ainge, he probably isn't willing to give up the draft considerations necessary to get that done.  He'd probably be pushing to trade one of those three for a package that includes unguaranteed contracts and a pick.  I don't think it is disputable that Scola is the most desirable of the three.

A package of White/Randolph/Williams is almost but not quite enough to match salary.  Here's how I could a negotiation playing out:

-Ainge inquires about Gortat, but talks shift to Scola, his intended target.
-Phoenix proposes Scola for Melo, unguaranteed contracts, and the #16 pick or the 2014 first.
-Boston counters with Scola for Melo package and a future second or two
-Phoenix offers Scola and a second-round pick for Melo package and a first
-Boston suggests Scola and #5 for Melo package and #16
-Phoenix proposes Scola and #30 for Melo package and #16
-Boston suggests massively reworking the deal...Scola, Beasley, and #5 for Lee, Melo, and some unguaranteed contracts
-Phoenix suggests taking a break from negotiations for a day or two

This leads to:
Luis Scola, #30, #57, and a future second for Melo, enough unguaranteed contracts to give the Celtics enough outgoing salary, and #16

The trade can't be consummated until after July 1 because Scola was claimed on amnesty waivers, so Phoenix will tell Boston who to draft for them.  This trade doesn't get agreed to until draft day, when Ainge makes the final determination based on whether or not someone he thinks is more useful than Scola falls to #16.

[BleedGreen1989]

Yeah I would like Scola. Everybody keeps naming Gortat but I think we would have to give up too much to get him.

[BleedGreen1989]

Another idea I've seen you throw around a lot that I like is Boozer to Boston. They would like to move him and likely for guard depth. Could you see something like this?

Boozer/CHA 1st rounder

Lee/Bass/BOS '15 1st rounder (protected?)

[PhoSita]

So we're dumping our 1st round pick this year and a guy we used a 1st round pick on last season so we can get Luis Scola for a couple of seasons plus what is effectively a couple of second round picks?

I really don't understand the point unless you think Scola is going to suddenly make us a contender again.

To me you're trading, at best, a 1st rounder and a 2nd round talent for two 2nd round picks.  Scola has no more value to us now than he did for Phoenix last season.

[LooseCannon]

I probably value second-rounders more than you do.  If I am Ainge and I decide that there is no one who provides good value at #16 but there are a couple of players I like who I expect to be available at #30, then instead of reaching for those guys and taking them early, I would want to move down and see if I can get them in a smaller salary slot while picking up some useful second-round picks.

Then, I would feel like I am a solid center and a decent backup point guard away from feeling like the team can be a second-tier contender.

If Doc wants to go small, I like Scola better than Bass as the nominal center for a smallball unit.

[demiurg]

1. Reports that the Suns were interested in Smith got debunked many times by the Suns beat writers and insiders.
2. McDnough and Babby said that they are rebuilding through the draft and are not interested in middling free agents like Smith.
3. Scola is a great value at his current salary and the Suns could get a much better value from other teams.

-Boston suggests Scola and #5 for Melo package and #16

This is pure gold

[PhoSita]

I probably value second-rounders more than you do.  If I am Ainge and I decide that there is no one who provides good value at #16 but there are a couple of players I like who I expect to be available at #30, then instead of reaching for those guys and taking them early, I would want to move down and see if I can get them in a smaller salary slot while picking up some useful second-round picks.

Then, I would feel like I am a solid center and a decent backup point guard away from feeling like the team can be a second-tier contender.

If Doc wants to go small, I like Scola better than Bass as the nominal center for a smallball unit.

Even in a weak draft, I view a mid-first round pick as far more valuable than two second round picks.

You can still get a decent role player, or maybe even a high level one if you pick right and develop well, with a mid first rounder.  Guys like that on rookie deals are the best bargain in the NBA.  This isn't the NFL.  Selecting in the top 15-20 is where you have the best chance of getting long term contributors, by far.

I also tend to agree with what Ainge has said, which is that this Celtics team is more than just a couple players, or one nice player, away from being even a "second tier" contender.  I'd say you would need to add a certified All-Star caliber talent to this group to get back in that conversation.  Scola or Gortat aren't going to cut it.

[LooseCannon]

Ainge said the team was more than one player away unless that one player was a great player.  I agree with that.  So, two good but not great players may do the trick.  If it takes the addition of two useful players, I'd be willing to go ahead and make the deal for the first one then try to figure out where to get the second one.  So, I would be willing to trade for someone like Scola without being sure how I would I acquire that second player.

Draft picks have transitory value that changes during the draft as players are taken.  If it comes to 16 and Ainge makes the assessment that the best player left will still be available at pick #25, the smart move is try to move down and pick up future second-round picks.  I could easily see a scenario where Ainge is locked in on two guys who get taken at #14 and #15 and the next players on his board are a clump of 3-4 guys who sees as roughly equal value and he projects them as late first or early second round picks, so he tries to trade down.  A second round pick might be worth dropping down 2-4 slots, depending on how good the pick is and who is left.

[rondohondo]

Scola is basically an older sully. Bass is a better defender . I don't see how he fits a need at all. Gortat is the only one on the suns that would improve our roster , especially since he is an expiring.

[LooseCannon]

Scola is basically an older sully. Bass is a better defender . I don't see how he fits a need at all. Gortat is the only one on the suns that would improve our roster , especially since he is an expiring.

If I knew he would be back and healthy, I'd really like someone with Channing Frye's skill set.