I may be in the small percentile here but i do want Mason Plumlee here. I feel he can run the floor, Rebound, Block shots, and finish around the basket. Would be a nice player to have with Rondo. We'll see. I thought i was reading that portland may consider moving their pick. So I wouldn't mind nabbing him at 10. Anyone else like Plumlee?
I also like plumlee, don't know that he will ever be a starter on a playoff team but would make a great 5/4 rotational big. I see him having a similar career to Bass or Wilcox (when healthy). Good enough to start on some teams but better suited for the bench on good teams. He could step right in next season and play Wilcox's role as Rondo favorite fast break target.
At 16....Is it a realistic goal to expect to land a starter on a playoff team?
I would say in the first round the goal is to draft a guy who at least has the ceiling to start on a playoff team. Plumlee has that ceiling but that will be the absolute best.
In my opinion a normal draft should expectation should be as follows
top 2 = super star / center piece
top 5 = all star
top 10 = boarder line allstar good 3rd option
top 15 = starter
top 25 = boarder line starter, high end role player
top 35 = end of rotation guy
top 50 = can earn roster spot
top 60 = good summer league player
This draft has a probably 30 guys in the typical 15-25 range and 8 in the 10-15 range.
Here are some actual numbers we can look at and draw some conclusions from:
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htmFirst off, over half of all 2nd round picks (i.e., after #30) are 'busts' or never play in the NBA at all. So if you get anything at all out of a 2nd round pick, its a huge win.
Of guys picked between #20 - 30 in the first round, only about 15% are better than 'role players'. Most are never more than 'deep bench'.
Picks right around ours, from 15-17, have about a 30% chance of being at least 'solid', about a 30% chance of just being a 'role player' and otherwise, bench or bust.
That said, let's look at some recent picks. Here is the list of the last 20 picks at #16. After each name, I've indicated the number of minutes they've played in the NBA and their WS/48 rating.
2012 Royce White
2011 Nikola Vucevic 3371m, .107
2010 Luke Babbitt 1404m, .035
2009 James Johnson 4018m, .042
2008 Marreese Speights 5658m, .112
2007 Nick Young 9590m, .050
2006 Rodney Carney 4600m, .064
2005 Joey Graham 6117m, .061
2004 Kirk Snyder 3540m, .061
2003 Troy Bell 34m, -0.326
2002 Jiri Welsh 4596m, .059
2001 Kirk Haston 134m, -0.197
2000 Hedo Turkoglu 25598m, .115
1999 Meta World Peace 30302m, .097
1998 Bryce Drew 3970m, .030
1997 Brevin Knight 18176m, .086
1996 Tony Delk 11702m, .080
1995 Alan Henderson 13780m, .097
1994 Clifford Rozier 2984m, .063
1993 Rex Walters 4602m, .066
1992 Randy Woods 1093m, .026
Let's ignore Royce White because I just don't know what's going to happen with him.
Of the other 20 picks, I'd say that Vucevic, Speights, Turkoglu, Peace, Knight and Henderson were all 'solid' or better. So that is 30%.
Of the rest, there are some clear bombs: Woods, Walters, Rozier, Drew, Haston, Welsh, Bell, Snyder. Johnson and Babbitt don't look on track to have solid careers either.
Overall, I wouldn't get my hopes up too high.
For comparisons, a top 10 player will 'normally' give you a career WS/48 rating of around .100 or better. All stars typically are above .130. Superstars like Shaq, Duncan, KG - they are up above .180. It is not always the best measure, of course. Many very good defensive players have had legitimately good careers with sub-par WS/48 ratings. But for the 'average' player, it's a reasonable rating once you have a few years of data.
FWIW - Sully, picked at #21, was an absolute steal, posting a WS/48 rating of .146 last season!!
We also got Rondo at #21 & Bradley at #19.
We should temper our expectations that the odds don't favor us getting players like those three again at #16. But it does suggest Danny is not bad at this game.
