A different perspective on the Celtics' fortunes

[Lucky17]

Here's what some rival execs think about the Celtics' situation this offseason.

http://bostonherald.com/sports/celtics_nba/boston_celtics/2013/05/execs_split_on_c_s_chances

Execs split on C’s chances
Saturday, May 18, 2013

By:
Steve Bulpett

CHICAGO — Executives from around the NBA are understandably reluctant to talk much about the Celtics’ current situation. All of them know they, too, may one day find themselves between the proverbial rock and hard place where the Shamrock AC now resides.

Given the opportunity to speak off the attributed record, however, can loosen one up. And, quite interestingly, in an entirely unscientific survey by the Herald here at the NBA combine, there were mixed outlooks for the Celts as they dive further into a summer of heavy decisions about their roster.

We expected only doom and gloom — and there was certainly a great deal of that — but there were also some who expressed the belief that the C’s are not so deep in the hole.
 
So where one general manager shook his head and said, “Oh, they’re screwed,” another stated strongly, “As long as you have assets, you’re never screwed. The Celtics have players that other teams want. They’ve also got some guys that would be really hard to move, but when you’re talking about Rajon Rondo and even (Paul) Pierce and (Kevin) Garnett, those are people who can make a team better. Now the question then becomes who you can get back for them and will those new guys make the Celtics better.”

One GM asked about Rondo said, “I haven’t heard his name being put out there like I have in the past, but if they’re ever going to try to overhaul that team, they’re going to have to at least be willing to discuss him (in trades). The thing is, with Rondo coming off an ACL (tear), teams will be looking to get a bargain, and Boston can’t go there. They’re better off letting him come back and show everyone what he can do again.”

The brightest forecast came from a veteran executive, who put the club in context with most of its Eastern Conference competition.

“Look, they didn’t have a great playoffs when you look overall. They played really well in stretches against New York, but they just couldn’t sustain it,” he said. “Now take that team you saw in that last game and add an All-Star point guard (Rondo) to it. Now add a kid like (Jared) Sullinger, who as a rookie — a rookie — gave them an inside (element) that they really missed when he got hurt.

“That’s not a bad team. They still don’t get past Miami, but I don’t think anyone (is) doing that. But they wouldn’t have been the seventh seed, and maybe they even get to the conference finals again. Then who knows? You get an injury to another team like the ones they had, and all of a sudden you’re deep into the playoffs.

“Now, I’m not saying this is highly likely going into next year, because, you know, even if the old guys (Pierce and Garnett) come back, they’re even older, and that makes it harder to count on anything with them.”

Another general manager painted a darker picture.

“It’s just so hard to get things done these days with the new rules,” he said. “The tax has become really punitive, and it’s become a real drag on everything. The bigger market teams still have an advantage, but it’s getting closer and closer to parity. That’s what the league said it wanted, but it makes it harder to make moves.

“I’m really not sure what the Celtics will be able to do. Players get older, and that makes it harder to trade them. It’s hard to get another team to give you an asset of any value when they’re getting someone who will only be playing another year or two. Not many teams want to go that way, because it means they’d have to win right now to make the trade worthwhile — and that’s hard to do under any circumstances.

“Everyone knows KG and Pierce can still play, but if you’re another team, what can you really give up for them? Another coach may want to make that deal, but the GM and the owner probably won’t.”

The general sentiment here is that the Celts may have to muddle through another year or so before they can get some salary cap clearance and flexibility. It may not be as bad as the “I think they’re (expletive)” we got from one team executive, who, perhaps out of competitiveness, sounded a little too happy when he said it. But there is no denying the Celtics will have to be both fortunate and good to get through this stretch.

[Nerf DPOY]

Much of this feels spot on to me. With good health and some serious luck they could see themselves in the ECF, but with the age of Pierce and KG they're likely more susceptible than most to fall apart by the playoffs.

I also think they have assets they can cash in and aren't as  ****ed as the last team executive would like to tell himself. You can probably still get something for KG and what Pierce can offer in salary relief.

The sentiment that seems to be enforced throughout league wide by these execs is that this current group is a dead team walking that can't realistically be fixed through the 16th pick and picking up some minimum salary FA's. I can't say I disagree with that.

[Boris Badenov]

Question: has any GM in NBA history assembled two distinct championship teams, on which the best 2-3 players are completely different?

I can't think of one.

[hpantazo]

Question: has any GM in NBA history assembled two distinct championship teams, on which the best 2-3 players are completely different?

I can't think of one.

Red Auerbach? He basically was the GM all those years.

[Boris Badenov]

Question: has any GM in NBA history assembled two distinct championship teams, on which the best 2-3 players are completely different?

I can't think of one.

Red Auerbach? He basically was the GM all those years.

I've seen mixed descriptions of what his official position was, but OK. You could probably give him credit for 3 different teams, actually.

Anyone else?

[hpantazo]

Question: has any GM in NBA history assembled two distinct championship teams, on which the best 2-3 players are completely different?

I can't think of one.

Red Auerbach? He basically was the GM all those years.

I've seen mixed descriptions of what his official position was, but OK. You could probably give him credit for 3 different teams, actually.

Anyone else?

From wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Auerbach

"General manager (1966–84)

Prior to the 1966–67 NBA season, Auerbach announced his retirement as a coach and named his successor, Bill Russell. Russell took over as a player-coach and so became the first African-American coach in the NBA.[2] While his pupil led the Celtics to two further titles in 1968 and 1969, Auerbach rebuilt the aging Celtics with shrewd draft picks, among them Jo Jo White and future Hall-of-Famers Dave Cowens, Paul Westphal, and Don Chaney. With his ex-player Tom Heinsohn coaching the Celtics and led by former sixth man John Havlicek, Auerbach's new recruits won the Atlantic Division every year from 1972 to 1976, winning the NBA title in 1974 and 1976. Further notable Auerbach signings were veteran center Paul Silas and ex-ABA star Charlie Scott.[5]
However, Auerbach could not prevent the Celtics from going into a slump at the end of the 1970s. He traded away both Silas and Westphal because they wanted salary increases that would have made them higher earners than the best player on the Celtics (Cowens), which was not acceptable to Auerbach, even though Cowens personally begged him to give Silas a new deal. When scoring champion Havlicek retired in 1978, the Celtics went 61–103 in two seasons.[5] But in 1979, Boston's fortunes changed when Auerbach set his eyes on talented college player Larry Bird. Despite knowing that Bird had a year of college eligibility remaining, he drafted Bird in the 1978 NBA Draft and waited for a year until the future Hall-of-Fame forward Bird arrived, finally setting aside his team salary rules when it became clear that his choices were paying Bird a record-setting rookie salary or watch him simply re-enter the 1980 draft. Bird then became the highest-paid Celtic as a rookie, with a $650,000-per year deal. Auerbach immediately sensed that the brilliant, hardworking Bird would be the cornerstone of a new Celtics generation.[2]
In 1980, Auerbach achieved another great coup. Dubbed "The Steal of The Century",[9] He convinced the Golden State Warriors to trade him a #3 overall pick and future Hall-of-Fame center Robert Parish in exchange for two picks in the 1980 NBA Draft: #1 overall Joe Barry Carroll, who went on to have an unremarkable career, and the #13 pick Rickey Brown. With the #3 pick, Auerbach selected the player he most wanted in the draft, Kevin McHale, who would also be inducted into the Hall of Fame. The frontcourt of Parish-McHale-Bird became one of the greatest front lines in NBA history. Auerbach hired head coach Bill Fitch whom led the revamped Celtics to the 1981 title.
In 1983, Auerbach named former Celtics player K.C. Jones coach of the Celtics, whom starting in 1984 coached the Celtics to four straight appearances in the NBA Finals, winning championships in 1984 and 1986."

[hpantazo]

Question: has any GM in NBA history assembled two distinct championship teams, on which the best 2-3 players are completely different?

I can't think of one.

Red Auerbach? He basically was the GM all those years.

I've seen mixed descriptions of what his official position was, but OK. You could probably give him credit for 3 different teams, actually.

Anyone else?

Jerry West:

from wikipedia:

"NBA.com credits West in creating the great 1980s Lakers dynasty, which brought five championship rings (1980,1982,1985,1987,and 1988) to Los Angeles.[1] After a slump in the early 1990s, West rebuilt the team of coach Del Harris around center Vlade Divac, forward Cedric Ceballos, and guard Nick Van Exel, which won 48 games, and went to the Western Conference Semifinals; for turning the team around, West received his first Executive of the Year Award.[47] By trading Vlade Divac for Kobe Bryant, signing free agent center Shaquille O'Neal, and signing six-time NBA champion Phil Jackson as a coach, West laid down the fundaments of the Lakers three-peat which saw L.A. win three NBA titles from 2000 to 2002.[1]"


and he might do it again with the Grizzlies.

[TripleOT]

So rival GMs are just as split on the Cs future as informed fans.  Stand pat with the new Big 3 when Rondo gets healthy and fill in with a few vetmin role players, and hope for playoff magic.  Move on from KG and PP and suck for a few seasons as you try to hit draft gold.  Trade PP and KG for some value and try to rebuild on the fly, getting lucky in the draft and retooling quickly.

To me, the most likely scenario is standing pat and trying to get a few role players.  Look how Golden State fortified their team last summer.  The spent $5m on Jack and $4m on Landry, and added two rotation rookies on the cheap in Ezeli and Draymond Green, $11m for a solid bench of tough guys.   Ainge added Jet and Lee at $5m each, and oft injured Wilcox, Melo and Milicic for a total of $14m.  If the Cs had the four GS players, they'd still be playing. 

If AInge can move either Lee or Jet, and get a rotation ready rookie and the draft and a stout big and vet PG for the vetmin, I don't see why the team wouldn't win 53+ games and be a playoff threat.   

[Boris Badenov]

Question: has any GM in NBA history assembled two distinct championship teams, on which the best 2-3 players are completely different?

I can't think of one.

Red Auerbach? He basically was the GM all those years.

I've seen mixed descriptions of what his official position was, but OK. You could probably give him credit for 3 different teams, actually.

Anyone else?

Jerry West:

from wikipedia:

"NBA.com credits West in creating the great 1980s Lakers dynasty, which brought five championship rings (1980,1982,1985,1987,and 1988) to Los Angeles.[1] After a slump in the early 1990s, West rebuilt the team of coach Del Harris around center Vlade Divac, forward Cedric Ceballos, and guard Nick Van Exel, which won 48 games, and went to the Western Conference Semifinals; for turning the team around, West received his first Executive of the Year Award.[47] By trading Vlade Divac for Kobe Bryant, signing free agent center Shaquille O'Neal, and signing six-time NBA champion Phil Jackson as a coach, West laid down the fundaments of the Lakers three-peat which saw L.A. win three NBA titles from 2000 to 2002.[1]"


and he might do it again with the Grizzlies.

OK, thanks for the research help.

So my point of asking this was that assuming Danny sticks around for a while, we are expecting him to do what only Red and West have done in league history. It would be an impressive feat for sure to rebuilt this team and win another ring.

[hpantazo]

Question: has any GM in NBA history assembled two distinct championship teams, on which the best 2-3 players are completely different?

I can't think of one.

Red Auerbach? He basically was the GM all those years.

I've seen mixed descriptions of what his official position was, but OK. You could probably give him credit for 3 different teams, actually.

Anyone else?

Jerry West:

from wikipedia:

"NBA.com credits West in creating the great 1980s Lakers dynasty, which brought five championship rings (1980,1982,1985,1987,and 1988) to Los Angeles.[1] After a slump in the early 1990s, West rebuilt the team of coach Del Harris around center Vlade Divac, forward Cedric Ceballos, and guard Nick Van Exel, which won 48 games, and went to the Western Conference Semifinals; for turning the team around, West received his first Executive of the Year Award.[47] By trading Vlade Divac for Kobe Bryant, signing free agent center Shaquille O'Neal, and signing six-time NBA champion Phil Jackson as a coach, West laid down the fundaments of the Lakers three-peat which saw L.A. win three NBA titles from 2000 to 2002.[1]"


and he might do it again with the Grizzlies.

OK, thanks for the research help.

So my point of asking this was that assuming Danny sticks around for a while, we are expecting him to do what only Red and West have done in league history. It would be an impressive feat for sure to rebuilt this team and win another ring.

It certainly would be, Ainge would be in very rare company. I believe he can do it though. He's both young enough and smart enough to build us one more championship team after KG and Pierce are gone.

[Nerf DPOY]

Not a knock against Danny at all, but if he does pull it off he'll have Wyc & co. to thank. Besides not meddling and giving him room, it really benefits Ainge to have bosses who aren't impatient, impulsive, or concerned with the bottom line at all costs (no pun intended).

And as with all championship teams, he'll need luck too of course.

[Boris Badenov]

Question: has any GM in NBA history assembled two distinct championship teams, on which the best 2-3 players are completely different?

I can't think of one.

Red Auerbach? He basically was the GM all those years.

I've seen mixed descriptions of what his official position was, but OK. You could probably give him credit for 3 different teams, actually.

Anyone else?

Jerry West:

from wikipedia:

"NBA.com credits West in creating the great 1980s Lakers dynasty, which brought five championship rings (1980,1982,1985,1987,and 1988) to Los Angeles.[1] After a slump in the early 1990s, West rebuilt the team of coach Del Harris around center Vlade Divac, forward Cedric Ceballos, and guard Nick Van Exel, which won 48 games, and went to the Western Conference Semifinals; for turning the team around, West received his first Executive of the Year Award.[47] By trading Vlade Divac for Kobe Bryant, signing free agent center Shaquille O'Neal, and signing six-time NBA champion Phil Jackson as a coach, West laid down the fundaments of the Lakers three-peat which saw L.A. win three NBA titles from 2000 to 2002.[1]"


and he might do it again with the Grizzlies.

OK, thanks for the research help.

So my point of asking this was that assuming Danny sticks around for a while, we are expecting him to do what only Red and West have done in league history. It would be an impressive feat for sure to rebuilt this team and win another ring.

It certainly would be, Ainge would be in very rare company. I believe he can do it though. He's both young enough and smart enough to build us one more championship team after KG and Pierce are gone.

I think Ainge is those things and also hungry enough. Not sure about Doc's willingness to suffer through the dog days of lottery-land for another 4-5 years.