Do you guys really think we can win 40+ with kg and pierce gone?

[More Banners]

No, I don't think we'd win 40 games without KG and Pierce.  A core of Rondo + Green just isn't good enough, and we wouldn't have enough cap space for a max free agent unless we gutted the team of role players, as well.

Not even 40 games?

Rondo/Williams
Bradley/Terry/Lee
Green/Lee
Sully/Bass

(so far, so good, right?)

So all we would really need is a starting Center and some minimum backups like Collins and Wilcox to eat minutes, and we're easily in the playoffs.

Perhaps that's the pitch for KG to stay...with or without Pierce.

[Roy H.]

No, I don't think we'd win 40 games without KG and Pierce.  A core of Rondo + Green just isn't good enough, and we wouldn't have enough cap space for a max free agent unless we gutted the team of role players, as well.

Not even 40 games?

Rondo/Williams
Bradley/Terry/Lee
Green/Lee
Sully/Bass

(so far, so good, right?)

So all we would really need is a starting Center and some minimum backups like Collins and Wilcox to eat minutes, and we're easily in the playoffs.

Perhaps that's the pitch for KG to stay...with or without Pierce.

I just don't see it that way.  I think that if KG and Pierce move on (without getting an impact player back) that we're going to sink closer to 30 wins.

[eugen]

Do you guys really think we can win 40+ with kg and pierce gone?

Without KG and PP this team will fight ate the bottom part of EAST for 12-15 place

[FreeGreen]

No chance that team would win 40 games.

They'd be hard pressed to win 30 games.

Here's your hypothetical starting lineup:

Rondo, Bradley, Green, Bass, and Sully

There is NO floor spacing on that unit.  Your best 3 pt shooter is Green ... then Bradley?  Rondo?  Yikes.  Teams are going to pack the paint like it's nobodies business.

You've also go no one who can create their own shot. Rondo can sometimes, when he feels like it, but with teams packing the paint there will be very little room for him to maneuver.

You're also under-sized at every position, and have weak rebounding SF and PF.

And this is all assuming Rondo and Sullinger are 100% healthy.

You've got 0 depth at the big man position.  0 depth at the SF.  You're carrying way too many guards that don't do anything great (Lee, Terry, Crawford.)

Oh ... and you're bumping up against the cap so you're limited in who you can bring in.

You're also losing 13 Win Shares of player between KG + PP.

(Rondo + Bradley + Sullinger + Bass + Green Win Shares: 15)

 

[MBunge]

Besides knowing who would replace them, there's a more basic question to ask.  Will this team win 40 games next year if we bring back KG and Pierce?  If anything, their production is going to decline next season and could drop by a whole lot.  And Pierce particularly will always have such a huge role in the offense under Doc that it stifles the rest of the roster.  People constantly talk about Green being more aggressive, but how aggressive can anyone be when the team will walk the ball up the court 5 or 6 times in a row and call a play for someone else?

The real issue isn't number of wins.  It's can the team make the roster improvements and changes to style of play necessary to remain or rebuild into a contender.

Mike

[KGs Knee]

As is, probably not.  Rondo would have to play at his playoff level every night just to sniff 40 wins.  Plus, as others have said, with little in the way of perimeter shooters, the paint is gonna be packed.  Rondo would have a much more difficult time getting to the rim.

If Pierce and KG are gone next year, we might be able to get a decent player in a S&T, though, so it's possible we could be better than 40+ wins.  I can't imagine they will be allowed to just simply walk away with us getting nothing in return.

[LilRip]

without Pierce and KG (and assuming we get some serviceable role player instead), i think we still make the 8th seed, barely. Rondo is good enough to win some games with role players, Jeff Green can win games as well, and Doc can get the most out of a team, even if it does feature limited players.

That said, we'll probably get swept or lose 4-1 with a little luck.

[BballTim]

this question can't really be answered unless there are replacement players named for pierce and kg.

  This is the answer. I don't see Danny letting both of them go and making no attempt to replace them.

[LooseCannon]

this question can't really be answered unless there are replacement players named for pierce and kg.

  This is the answer. I don't see Danny letting both of them go and making no attempt to replace them.

What if Ainge goes into a full-scale tank job that involves constructing a roster so that Brandon Bass ends up starting half the season at center?

[KGs Knee]

this question can't really be answered unless there are replacement players named for pierce and kg.

  This is the answer. I don't see Danny letting both of them go and making no attempt to replace them.

What if Ainge goes into a full-scale tank job that involves constructing a roster so that Brandon Bass ends up starting half the season at center?

This is possible as well.

I think the point here is, I just don't see any realistic scenario where next year's roster is exactly the same as this year's roster, minus PP/KG.

Ainge will either seek to find adequate replacements for them, or sell off even more parts to go full rebuild.  Staying in the middle would be bad.  This is ultimately why I think both PP/KG stay one more year.

I don't think Wyc will let Ainge go full rebuild, and the FA's available this off-season aren't as good as the FA's in 2014 & 2015.

[BballTim]

this question can't really be answered unless there are replacement players named for pierce and kg.

  This is the answer. I don't see Danny letting both of them go and making no attempt to replace them.

What if Ainge goes into a full-scale tank job that involves constructing a roster so that Brandon Bass ends up starting half the season at center?

  It's fairly hard to guess a win total when the roster could vary between a reload and a full tank job. I'd put the answer somewhere in the 10-50 win range I suppose.

[Evantime34]

I think their ceiling is probably mid 40 -50 wins but for them to hit this ceiling some things need to happen.
1. Rondo returns, his injury causes him to realize he won't be in the league forever. Due to this he gives us playoff Rondo almost every night. Also he is 100% after injury. Plays like an MVP candidate.

2. Bradley uses his first full healthy offseason to work on his offensive game and ball handling. Gives us first team all NBA defense.

3. Green takes the next step forward by developing a left hand. Becomes an all star by scoring 20+ a game with a lot of highlight dunks.

4. Sullinger not only comes back at 100% but loses some weight over the summer to improve his quickness. Consistently gives the team 15-10

5. Our rookie gives us immediate contributions after we end up with a steal of a pick at 16

6. Bass, Terry and Lee either emerge or are dealt for someone who can give us bench help.

So essentially a team with a core of Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger and Green things would have to break perfectly for them to sneak in the playoffs.

[kgainez]

i think 40 is a stretch, but i def think it's doable.
41 without our best player and aging stars. change the game plan to favor the younger guys...30 is def doable. with our current roster

if we get a good big like a paul milsap even, i think 40 is much more doable.

[Monkhouse]

I don't know why everyone is so skeptical...

Rondo/Green/Bradley/Sullinger given time to work together, I don't see why they won't get 30-32 wins easily in the East that has been really weak as of late.

Not to mention if we could get a big like Al Jefferson, or if Doc is staying playing small ball, with Josh Smith at C. I don't see why it wouldn't be bumped up to 35-42.

Without our star PG, we made it to 41 with all of our star veterans driven into the ground and our team riddled with injuries.

[kgainez]

I don't know why everyone is so skeptical...

Rondo/Green/Bradley/Sullinger given time to work together, I don't see why they won't get 30-32 wins easily in the East that has been really weak as of late.

Not to mention if we could get a big like Al Jefferson, or if Doc is staying playing small ball, with Josh Smith at C. I don't see why it wouldn't be bumped up to 35-42.

Without our star PG, we made it to 41 with all of our star veterans driven into the ground and our team riddled with injuries.

i agree
i really expect a line up of rondo, green, bradley and sully to play really good, sound basketball.
rondo sets it up, green stays aggressive, AB has that midrange jumper and corner 3, sully scraps for the rebounds and post work.