Found this article on ESPN insider today about the best path for the top 3 in the east (Heat, Knicks, and Pacers) to the finals. The one common thread you find in the summaries for each of the three teams:
they all should avoid the Celtics. Bring on the playoffs already!
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PerDiem-130403/nba-best-playoff-paths-east-eliteJust like in the NCAA tournament, seeding matters in the NBA playoffs -- not only because of home-court advantage, but also because of the key differences between different paths to the NBA Finals. In particular, matchups are crucial in the NBA's best-of-seven format.
My research has found head-to-head record during the regular season to be a statistically significant predictor of series outcomes, along with overall ability. Using these factors, and home-court advantage, we can estimate a team's chances of winning any series -- and how much their likelihood of reaching different rounds changes depending on the teams they face.
For the top three teams in the Eastern Conference, here's a look at the best and worst paths to the NBA Finals (for the top-seeded Miami Heat) or the Eastern Conference finals (for the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks, battling for the second seed and hoping to face the Heat in the conference finals). In each case, I've done the math on how much of a difference seeding and matchups could make in their chances to reach either the NBA Finals or the conference finals.
Miami Heat
Best path: Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks
Worst path: Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers
Difference in chance of reaching NBA Finals: 10.8 percent
Notice something these two groups have in common? The first is made up of teams with smaller frontcourts that tend to rely more on skill than strength. Not so the second group, with the kind of big, physical front lines that have been Miami's (relative) kryptonite.
The most important matchup for the Heat might be the second round. Miami has gone 7-0 against the Hawks and Brooklyn Nets, who would meet in the 4-5 matchup if the season ended today. The Heat are ideally set up to defend Atlanta's Josh Smith, and a series between the two teams could be as lopsided as the Hawks' 4-0 exits in the second round in 2009 (against LeBron James, then in Cleveland) and 2010 (against Orlando). Meanwhile, the Miami defense has done a good job against Brook Lopez, holding him to 29 points in two games.
So the Heat are pulling for the Bulls, who ended their 27-game winning streak last week and could potentially get Derrick Rose back for the playoffs, to end up on the other side of the bracket.
Same for the Celtics, who have played Miami tough this season. Boston would be a much more challenging first-round matchup than Milwaukee, which is currently a game and a half behind the injury-battered Celtics for the seventh seed.By the Eastern Conference finals, either of the above matchups would be difficult for the Heat. Miami lost the season series to New York 3-1 (although last night's game, with James and Dwyane Wade watching from the sidelines, deserves an asterisk) and is down 2-1 to Indiana with one game remaining at home. More than anyone else in the league, the Knicks have been able to give the Heat trouble from the perimeter. New York's 3-point shooting could be an issue for Miami in a short series, and the Knicks should also be healthier up front by then. Still, Miami would rather face the Knicks than the bruising Pacers, who have been one of the league's best teams since the All-Star break thanks to their improved offense.
Indiana Pacers
Best path: Milwaukee Bucks, Chicago Bulls
Worst path: Boston Celtics, at New York Knicks
Difference in chance of reaching East finals: 24.3 percent
Even though Indiana has established itself as the top threat to the Heat in the Eastern Conference, the first two rounds of the playoffs could be a minefield for the Pacers. They've built their record by going 18-11 against the West (including a 4-0 trip that wrapped up with Monday's win over the Clippers) and 19-5 against East lottery teams.
But Indiana is just .500 against East playoff teams and has yet to beat either Boston or Brooklyn (0-2 apiece) this season.
The Pacers split 2-2 with the Bucks, but would still much rather see Milwaukee than the Celtics in the opening round. Actually, Chicago might even be a better matchup than Boston. Indiana won the season series with the Bulls 3-1, losing only a game that David West missed because of injury. (So too did Joakim Noah, in fairness.) That's their best head-to-head record against any East playoff team.
Most likely, the road to the Eastern Conference finals will go through Madison Square Garden. A Knicks-Pacers series could hinge on home-court advantage. The teams are tied right now, and the No. 2 seed probably won't be determined until they play April 14 at New York. A win would give the Pacers the head-to-head tiebreaker, while New York would even the series at 2 with a victory and probably win any tiebreaker thanks to a superior record against the Eastern Conference.
New York Knicks
Best path: Milwaukee Bucks, Atlanta Hawks
Worst path: Chicago Bulls, at Indiana Pacers
Difference in chance of reaching East finals: 33.4 percent
The Knicks' path to the conference finals could make a bigger difference in their chances of facing Miami than any other team. The ideal scenario would be for the Knicks to capture the second seed and have Indiana upset by the Hawks in the 3-6 matchup. New York won the only meeting to date with Atlanta -- which hosts the Knicks tonight (ESPN, 7 ET) -- 106-104 at Madison Square Garden.
Because the Hawks lack the strength to take advantage of New York in the paint, this would be a favorable matchup for the Knicks in either of the first two rounds, and dropping to third wouldn't be terrible for the Knicks if it means playing Atlanta. The problem is it also could mean facing the Bulls, who have been a poor matchup for New York this year. Chicago has won all three meetings, including two at Madison Square Garden, with one left at the United Center a week from Thursday.
If the Knicks finish second, they'd prefer not to see the Celtics despite winning the season series 3-1. Milwaukee looks like a much more favorable matchup. New York has taken both meetings with the Bucks (they close out the series Friday at MSG) by double figures.
Assuming the Knicks and Pacers end up meeting in the second round, Indiana would be favored with or without home-court advantage. New York can take solace in the fact that one of its two losses to the Pacers (81-76 at Indiana on Jan. 10) came with Carmelo Anthony sidelined. However, Anthony was back in the lineup for the Pacers' 125-91 home blowout in the first game after the All-Star break, when he was outplayed by Indiana's Paul George. And New York's head-to-head win in November at MSG, which featured Rasheed Wallace coming off the bench for nine points and seven rebounds, feels like ancient history.
Topic: Best playoff paths for East's elite (Read 2610 times)