Jeff Green: Nice Numbers on a Bad Team Guy?

[Kevin OConnor]

I started writing this article on Saturday, sort of about this topic- http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/4/1/4170152/jeff-green-and-production-a-statistical-guide-to-consistency-boston-celtics-analysis

It doesn't exactly the "nice numbers on a bad team guy?" question but it does give some evidence that might answer a few others.

[kgainez]

i kind of can't believe this is even a topic.
i mean, Jeff just cannot win with some of you.

i guess it's cuz Kendrick Perkins is doing such a bangup job in OKC, scoring 18.5 starting and stuff.

smh.

[mmmmm]

I really do think so.  For that opinion to change, I'll have to see what he can do on a healthy good team or how he play comes the playoffs.  With Sully, Rondo, and KG on the floor he's seems so timid on the court and doesn't seem to give a lot of effort.  He hasn't shown that he can play efficiently with stars or star studded teams

I just don't get this kind of comment.  It is a 'present tense' assertion about something isn't happening in the present.   It makes no sense.

The Jeff Green that played with Rondo and Sullinger was in the _past_.

Jeff Green's game (efficiency, durability and production) has very clearly and obviously been changing over time and for obvious reasons - his continued comeback from open-heart surgery and missing an entire season.

Totally independent of Rondo & Sully, Green is pretty clearly playing differently _now_ than he was just months ago.   And for all we know, he may be playing differently next Fall than he is right now.

So you can't make any statement whatsoever about how "he seems so timid" when on the court with Rondo & Sully.

You CAN make statements about how Green has performed with KG more recently since we have data that covers that.  And the fact is that Green and KG have played extremely well together, both on offense and on defense.

Since the start of the new year, when KG & Green have been on the floor together, the team is a net +6.5 per 100 possessions.   That's our 2nd most efficient two-some of the players left on the team in that span.

Interestingly, our most efficient two-some of the current roster since Jan 1, is Pierce & Green:  +9.7 points per 100 possessions!

[indeedproceed]

I really do think so.  For that opinion to change, I'll have to see what he can do on a healthy good team or how he play comes the playoffs.  With Sully, Rondo, and KG on the floor he's seems so timid on the court and doesn't seem to give a lot of effort.  He hasn't shown that he can play efficiently with stars or star studded teams

I just don't get this kind of comment.  It is a 'present tense' assertion about something isn't happening in the present.   It makes no sense.

The Jeff Green that played with Rondo and Sullinger was in the _past_.

Jeff Green's game (efficiency, durability and production) has very clearly and obviously been changing over time and for obvious reasons - his continued comeback from open-heart surgery and missing an entire season.

Totally independent of Rondo & Sully, Green is pretty clearly playing differently _now_ than he was just months ago.   And for all we know, he may be playing differently next Fall than he is right now.

So you can't make any statement whatsoever about how "he seems so timid" when on the court with Rondo & Sully.

You CAN make statements about how Green has performed with KG more recently since we have data that covers that.  And the fact is that Green and KG have played extremely well together, both on offense and on defense.

Since the start of the new year, when KG & Green have been on the floor together, the team is a net +6.5 per 100 possessions.   That's our 2nd most efficient two-some of the players left on the team in that span.

Interestingly, our most efficient two-some of the current roster since Jan 1, is Pierce & Green:  +9.7 points per 100 possessions!

I think he's pointing to the lackluster performance from Green when the team was healthy as a foundation for worry that his recent production for one reason or another is fools gold.

Which is perfectly valid. Small sample sizes are always suspect.

[indeedproceed]

i kind of can't believe this is even a topic.
i mean, Jeff just cannot win with some of you.

i guess it's cuz Kendrick Perkins is doing such a bangup job in OKC, scoring 18.5 starting and stuff.

smh.

This is just a guess, but perhaps its backlash its because it feels like some posters are carpet bombing the website with pro-green posts and threads, to the point where a middle-of-the-road opinion of Green is labeled as 'hating' or having unrealistic expectations.

That's just my personal guess though.

[wdleehi]

i kind of can't believe this is even a topic.
i mean, Jeff just cannot win with some of you.

i guess it's cuz Kendrick Perkins is doing such a bangup job in OKC, scoring 18.5 starting and stuff.

smh.

This is just a guess, but perhaps its backlash its because it feels like some posters are carpet bombing the website with pro-green posts and threads, to the point where a middle-of-the-road opinion of Green is labeled as 'hating' or having unrealistic expectations.

That's just my personal guess though.

Agreed. 

[Boris Badenov]

I think of "good numbers on bad team" guys as those whose numbers go up at the expense of efficiency (or team success) when they are on bad teams.

Green's improvement in scoring output over the last couple of months has come along with improved efficiency, and an improvement in the team's overall performance with him in the lineup.

I think we're just seeing a guy who's on a bit of a roll, who's taking advantage of it and getting encouraged to do so by his teammates and coach.

[Fafnir]

i kind of can't believe this is even a topic.
i mean, Jeff just cannot win with some of you.

i guess it's cuz Kendrick Perkins is doing such a bangup job in OKC, scoring 18.5 starting and stuff.

smh.

This is just a guess, but perhaps its backlash its because it feels like some posters are carpet bombing the website with pro-green posts and threads, to the point where a middle-of-the-road opinion of Green is labeled as 'hating' or having unrealistic expectations.

That's just my personal guess though.

4.5 Jeff Green threads in the top 10 isn't carpet bombing. I mean 55% of those threads aren't about Jeff Green!

[dark_lord]

i think green needs to have his role clearly defined.  is he a starter or bench player, and what does the team want/expect from him on both ends of the court.  then he needs to perform consistently.  i like his potential, but he has been too up and down for me to have confidence in his game night in, night out.

I would like to see him start at the 4 when kg returns.

bradley
lee
pierce
green
kg

[kgainez]

i kind of can't believe this is even a topic.
i mean, Jeff just cannot win with some of you.

i guess it's cuz Kendrick Perkins is doing such a bangup job in OKC, scoring 18.5 starting and stuff.

smh.

This is just a guess, but perhaps its backlash its because it feels like some posters are carpet bombing the website with pro-green posts and threads, to the point where a middle-of-the-road opinion of Green is labeled as 'hating' or having unrealistic expectations.

That's just my personal guess though.

I guess.

We've had several discussions. Some on-going and some not so much.
I do recall a point in a discussion that I started, titled 'What do you want from Jeff Green', where a good majority of posters said they'd like some consistency from him and some solid numbers. Lots of people agreed they'd be cool if he was a 16/5 guy. There were many different things but lots of people echoed 'consistency' and 'just be solid'.

First and most importantly, I think 'consistency' is heavily skewed when we talk about Jeff Green. It's as if people want him to mimic his numbers from the previous night. I disagree. I just want him to be aggressive night in and night out. Him putting up 43 one game and 15 the next isn't great but if he's consistently aggressive, I can't get mad if some of the shots just don't go down.

My point in all this (because I feel a tangent coming) is that I know we all won't agree on Jeff, but to say he's only having nice numbers because the team is 'bad' I think is a disservice. So we can say the same about Paul right now, too? And we can say the same about Rondo at the beginning of the year right?

I think his numbers while starting are great. His numbers coming off the bench were productive as well. I don't think this a 'middle-of-the-road' argument. I think it's just another way for us to question Green. And while he's had his stinkers, we are just not giving the guy credit for shaking the stuff off and playing hard.

[Geo123]

Well he averaged a little over 15 ppg and just under 6 rpg for the Thunder his last full year there and a little better in both categories the previous year.  Their record in 2009/2010 was 50 - 32 which is hardly a bad team so my answer would be no.

I don't think he has the personality to be a #1 option on a team but I do think as he matures he can be a consistant 18 and 8 type of guy on a very good team. He is still only 26 years old so his best ball should be in front of him....

[Roy H.]

I don't think he has the personality to be a #1 option on a team but I do think as he matures he can be a consistant 18 and 8 type of guy on a very good team.

I don't think we'll ever see Green average 8 rebounds per game.  I'm happy with his current level of play, though.  As I've said previously, if Green can keep up this level of defense and keep hitting from outside, he's a very useful player.

[arctic 3.0]

Green is showing his stuff and that stuff looks good enough to be a #2 offensive option and solid defender.
Question is post KG/PP how do we build around him
pg RR (#3 option)
Sg ? (#1 opt)
sf JG (#2 opt)
PF sully (#4 opt)
C ?

  Most teams get 60-70 ppg from their starters. If Rondo comes back healthy and Sully comes back healthy and playing the way he was before he went out those two and Green could combine for close to 50 a game. Then you'd need 15-20 points combined from your sg and c, which shouldn't be that hard to do. A good defensive center that can rebound and a good outside shooting sg would round out the starting 5.

A good defensive center and a 15-20 point guard would get us into the playoffs.
IMO we need either a foundational center or sg. Someone who will command the attention of the opposing d in order to free green (like the current PP/JG combo.
This will be harder to acquire.
I'd love to see this team rebuild into contention on the fly but it's not likely.
More likely we end up with JG as our #1 in the next few years and bow out of the playoffs early for the foreseeable future.

[BballTim]

Well he averaged a little over 15 ppg and just under 6 rpg for the Thunder his last full year there and a little better in both categories the previous year.  Their record in 2009/2010 was 50 - 32 which is hardly a bad team so my answer would be no.

I don't think he has the personality to be a #1 option on a team but I do think as he matures he can be a consistant 18 and 8 type of guy on a very good team. He is still only 26 years old so his best ball should be in front of him....

  We're a very good team and our #1 option has averaged 18-20 a game over the last 6 years.

[Snakehead]

i kind of can't believe this is even a topic.
i mean, Jeff just cannot win with some of you.

i guess it's cuz Kendrick Perkins is doing such a bangup job in OKC, scoring 18.5 starting and stuff.

smh.

This is just a guess, but perhaps its backlash its because it feels like some posters are carpet bombing the website with pro-green posts and threads, to the point where a middle-of-the-road opinion of Green is labeled as 'hating' or having unrealistic expectations.

That's just my personal guess though.

I think yes part is backlash.  There was a lot said about him early on.

There has been a continual moving the goal posts, and with this thread in particular we have moved them quite far... what would lead one to this conclusion?  He has not only been scoring, but doing so very efficiently over this stretch.

As well as the whole recover story (a true reason to root for Green) and the fact that his recovery was said to take time... there is a reason to be optimistic about Green as a fan.