Blowing Double Digit Leads...Is It Just the Celts?

[quidinqui33]

What is it with the Celts and blowing double digit leads?

The one thing that has been consistent with this team since Year 3 of the "Big 3" era has been that we can always get up on teams, but inevitably the lead is squandered away.

It seems like right when our team gets to about a 13 point lead, they inevitably start settling for 3 point shots and trying to hold on to the game rather than put their collective feet on the gas.  In some games those shots go in, and we get Gino, and most games those shots don't go in, and we are in a nail biter to the end, if not into multiple overtimes.

Does it coincide with pierce aging a bit and no longer being that get to the free throw line guy that he used to be?  Is it doc?  Is it that our players are old and do get tire?  Are we too cocky when we have the lead? Combo of all of the above?

It must be said that our team is also notorious at coming back from big deficits as well so maybe this is just the ebs and flow of basketball. 

Does anyone watch any other top tier teams to know if they manage to blow leads as much?  I had a laker buddy who was complaining about the same thing last year so maybe it is not just us.

[celtics2]

Personally I don't care what other Teams are doing. I know we blow too many big lead game's including one for a Championship and ditto for close games in general. A different Coach and we win half of those. IMHO.

[FreeGreen]

I'll be honest.  I thought it the fact that KG / PP are resting more then usual so we're stuck playing 2nd tier players more.

But looking at the numbers it's not true.  KG is only down about a minute or two from his first season average in Boston (of course, lot of those games were blowouts, so that impacts the numbers.) 

PP is down 4 min / game, but he's been at his current level for 3 years now.

So -- my guess is that it's because we're a jump shooting team.  When we're hitting, we can set our defense and there's a snowball effect of goodness.  When we're missing and teams are getting into transition there's a snowball effect of badness.

Also -- why do we suck so bad against AWFUL teams.  We've the same basic against the Heat (1-2) and Thunder (1-1) as we do against the Bobcats (2-2) and Hornets (0-2).

[Clench123]

Personally I don't care what other Teams are doing. I know we blow too many big lead game's including one for a Championship and ditto for close games in general. A different Coach and we win half of those. IMHO.

Croc

[Lightskinsmurf]

Personally I don't care what other Teams are doing. I know we blow too many big lead game's including one for a Championship and ditto for close games in general. A different Coach and we win half of those. IMHO.

Agreed, the one for the championship was unacceptable. I mean if the celtics can blow a lead in the biggest game of their lives then they can blow any lead at any time on any stage, very troubling.

[LooseCannon]

My guess is that the Celtics are not atypically bad in the area of losing games where they had a double-digit lead.

[ScottHow]

When you are a jump shooting team you tend to stink when they don't go in.

[kgainez]

i just hate how obvious this stuff sounds
'oh it's cuz they're a jump shooting team'

uh ok...how about not shooting so many jumpers?
this is my thing...at what point do we REALLY start to do something different and play a system that works for WHO WE HAVE? Can our guys hit jumpers? Yes. They're in the NBA. But why can't we have a handful of guys who are to the rack guys?

That's why I like when Jeff comes in. You know he's going to the rack, unless he's wide open for the 3. I think Lee should really be a cutter. Take it to the rim. Bass. Take it to the rim. I even think Jordan Crawford should be a take it to the rim guy. All with aggression.

Not saying that don't. But sometimes...in awful stretches it seems like...oh let's just shoot jumpers.
I'm not gonna sit here and solely blame Doc. But something has to happen.

[quidinqui33]

That's why I like when Jeff comes in. You know he's going to the rack, unless he's wide open for the 3. I think Lee should really be a cutter. Take it to the rim. Bass. Take it to the rim. I even think Jordan Crawford should be a take it to the rim guy. All with aggression.

Agree with this.  I guess it does come down to Doc or maybe the team as a whole and their over reliance on KG and Pierce (and Rondo pre-ACL) down the stretch.  As soon as we get the lead, we put the ball in one of their hands and everyone else watches and it usually ends in late shot clock jumpers because those guys don't get to the line like they used to (Rondo never did).  We do need to let Jeff handle the ball more when we are up.  Also agree that Courtney seems totally hangcuffed. I think he could get to the rim at will if he had the ball in his hands a little.

[Moranis]

Personally I don't care what other Teams are doing. I know we blow too many big lead game's including one for a Championship and ditto for close games in general. A different Coach and we win half of those. IMHO.

Croc

I tend to agree it is coaching especially when you have a good team like the Celtics have been.  A bad team blowing a big lead, well what do you expect they are a bad team, but a good team should never blow a double digit 4th quarter lead (and sure it happens, but it should be far more rare than it is for the Celtics).  And while this years Celtic's team isn't a great team it is still a good team and the Celtics have had this problem for years.

[LB3533]

Sorry guys, it's not because we are a "jump shooting" team because everyone else is also a jump shooting team. No team out there does not shoot jumpers or 3's, there just isn't that unicorn team out there that only goes to the rack or get to the free line every time down.

Our biggest problem on offense is turnovers and that is a function of our offensive system.

When we are shooting 50, 55, 60% and we feel like we should have a bigger lead than 5, 10, 13....then there is something wrong on a fundamental level with our offensive system.

Case in point, I remember Jim O'Brien's offense and it was chuck the 3 and live and die by the decisions of his 2 stars....it was not a pretty offense. We would more often than not shoot 38 to 41% as a team and still find ways to win by double digits or comeback from being down double digits.

That Obie offense was not a good one, but something fundamental about it was valid and worked for what he had as his personnel.

[LooseCannon]

It seems like right when our team gets to about a 13 point lead, they inevitably start settling for 3 point shots and trying to hold on to the game rather than put their collective feet on the gas.

I actually think the team does not shoot enough threes with a lead.  One of the papers presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference suggested that teams are too risk-averse and don't shoot enough threes when they have the lead.

[LB3533]

It seems like right when our team gets to about a 13 point lead, they inevitably start settling for 3 point shots and trying to hold on to the game rather than put their collective feet on the gas.

I actually think the team does not shoot enough threes with a lead.  One of the papers presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference suggested that teams are too risk-averse and don't shoot enough threes when they have the lead.

Hhmmmm? That seems to fly against perception. I think a lot of people feel that teams with large leads blow the leads because they shoot too many unnecessary 3's and miss.

[pearljammer10]

We just stop playing. We think we can coast and thats not the case anymore because Paul and KG cant play the flip the switch game anymore. Now we coast with a big lead, our old guys get cold and cant get their edge back and end up loosing the game for good.

[LooseCannon]

It seems like right when our team gets to about a 13 point lead, they inevitably start settling for 3 point shots and trying to hold on to the game rather than put their collective feet on the gas.

I actually think the team does not shoot enough threes with a lead.  One of the papers presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference suggested that teams are too risk-averse and don't shoot enough threes when they have the lead.

Hhmmmm? That seems to fly against perception. I think a lot of people feel that teams with large leads blow the leads because they shoot too many unnecessary 3's and miss.

What I really hate is when the team builds a lead in part by taking and making threes, then completely runs away from that style of play in an attempt to hold the lead.  An example is when a team passes up a high-quality transition three-point attempt in favor of pulling the ball back and getting into a half-court offense, which results in a shot with a lower expected value.