Better to face Heat in 2nd round or ECF?

[jbsprinter1]

I'm curious to get the opinions of others on this topic.

For me, personally, I'd rather face the Heat later than sooner. It's more than just wanting to see an extra series with the Celtics, too. I actually believe it works to our advantage strategically and gives us a better shot of beating the Heat. And yes, that means I would prefer the 6th seed over 4th or 5th, if those end up being the only possible options near the end of the season. Here's my reasoning:

The Celtics are a team that need 1-2 series to truly get going. We've seen it in the past. They let weaker teams stay in the series until Game 6 or 7, which is when they really turn it on. It happened against the Hawks and Cavs in 2008, but after that, we were battle-tested and the Pistons and Lakers series ending up being relatively easy. It happened last year, too. I think they played down to the level of the Hawks and Sixers and really shocked the Heat in the ECF.

In addition, younger teams tend to get too comfortable and overconfident after 1-2 easy playoff rounds. We saw it with the Magic in 2010. After 2 sweeps, they were on top of the world, while the Celtics had to grind it out against the Cavs. We were ready for the Magic and were up 3-0 against them before they knew what hit them. Last year the Heat had an easy first 2 rounds (the Pacers tested them a little bit) and then hit the brick wall that is the Celtics and found themselves down 2-3. Only then did they step it up.

By the ECF, the Celtics will likely have faced 2 tough teams while the Heat will have faced the Bucks and the Nets/Bulls/Knicks. That's not much of a challenge for them. If we see them in the ECF, we'll be ready at Game 1's tip-off while it might take the Heat a game or two to adjust to a real challenge.

If we face them in the 2nd round, I believe it will be a repeat of 2011. We had just swept the Knicks and we weren't battle-tested at all. The Heat took us out in 5 games. So I'd rather face the Heat in the ECF. But I'd like to see what everyone else thinks.

[CelticConcourse]

I agree with a lot of things you said.

I prefer the Celtics to "get into rhythm" against some easier teams (Knicks, Hawks, Nets, Bulls) before playing the Heat. It would be a real shame to play them in the first round (good thing we aren't) and lose, but playing them in the second round could be OK. Last year, Miami was down 2-1 to Indiana until the Pacers blew it.

I'd say we're the team who "has the Heat's number" most simply because we know what LeBron can do to us. Years and years we've played him and we're the only team in the East that they're even slightly scared of. No one else can truly challenge them, imo. Green&Pierce is either the best or second best counter to LeBron (Durant/Sefolosha). But first, let's tire LeBron out with some Carmelo Anthony or Luol Deng.

If we can get into a stride, we'll be unstoppable. Though I don't expect any sweeps or anything (winning game 5s always means losing game 6s in Boston....), I expect to get to the ECFs at least to meet Miami. Indiana and Bulls are challenging but in a 7-game series, I see our vets pulling it out.

We were tired last year in the ECFs and look where that got us... game 7. Playing Miami in round 2 wouldn't be any better since even if we won, we'd still be "too tired" in y'all's opinion so we might as well do what works. Let's play the mid-tier teams and try hard to get to the third or second seed.

The only problem with this, is that Doc will not TRY to get any seed. Wherever the team ends up in the Standings is where we are. We've just got to hope we can win the Division and beat out Hawks/Bulls (possible). This makes our matchups with the Knicks and the matchup with the Nets very, very important (I don't even care if we lose to the Heat tomorrow). I want to get to the third seed, and that's not gonna be easy.

Go Celtics!

[gpap]

I don't really think it matters.

I suppose the only advantage to playing them in the ECF is the possibility that the more games are played, the more of a chance Lebron gets injured and isn't 100% for the series.

However, if you're hoping another team's star player gets injured as your only chance to beat them, then you don't probably don't belong in the playoffs.

[CelticsFan9]

Better sooner than later.  Here's why:

For starters, let's address the state of the team.  THIS TEAM COULD GIVE LESS A CRAP ABOUT WHAT SEED THEY GET.  Seriously.  Doc has talked about it before.  Just get to the playoffs, that's what we always hear.  And it's true.  This team doesn't care for the regular season.  They have time and again stepped it up, who knows why.  Maybe they can't do it anymore, but I have a feeling they will.  It's in their DNA.

Now, let's look at potential opponents.  THE ONLY TEAMS WORTH BEING AFRAID OF ARE THE HEAT AND THE BULLS.  Indiana is too stupid, New York is a mess of parts that don't fit, and everyone else isn't worth discussing.  Chicago, even without Rose, could easily dispatch us this year, if only for two things: defense and rebounding.  While our offense is better than their's, their defense is far better than ours.  Miami happens to have a guy named LeBron James, as well as Dwyane Wade.  They're the reigning champs, and they've beaten us two years in a row.  We should be wary of this.

This team's success rests on the aging shoulders of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.  In case you didn't know, they're pretty old, by NBA standards.  Personally, I find it utterly stupefying why someone would want this team to have to play two whole rounds of playoff basketball as a primer for the defending champs.  We need to be rested, healthy, and fresh when we play Miami.  Why?  Because if we get to the ECF (NOT A GUARANTEE BY ANY STRETCH), we'll be over here sucking on oxygen while the Heat will have just broken a sweat.  Why not play them when our guys aren't exhausted?

Let's say the East plays out like this:

Miami vs. Milwaukee (Miami in 4)
Indiana vs. Atlanta (Indiana in 5)
New York vs. Boston (Boston in 6 or 7)
Brooklyn vs. Chicago (Chicago in 6 or 7)

Miami vs. Chicago (Miami in 6 or 7)
Indiana vs. Boston (Boston in 6 or 7)

Feel free to mix and match.  Either way, we'll be facing two of Indiana, New York, Chicago, and Brooklyn.  All four of those teams would make for a tough series, with Chicago scaring me the most.

We now fast forward to the ECF: in one corner, stands the veteran Boston Celtics, who, despite losing star PG Rajon Rondo, have valiantly fought their way through two brushing series to face their foe, the Miami Heat.  In the other corner, we have the Miami Heat, who have breezed through the regular season and playoffs so far, and look primed for a third straight trip to the NBA Finals.

In this scenario, we'd lose in 5 or 6, for two reasons:

1.  We're not as good as they are

2.  Fatigue

(In that order)

Face it, when Rondo went down, this team's aspirations of coming out of the East ended.  As much as I love the Celtics, I can't see them doing anything special in the postseason.  I don't care how much heart we have, I don't care how well we match up with Miami, it all means nothing to me.

I can sit back, enjoy watching my favorite player (KG) and Pierce break records, while enjoying the development of Bradley, and wishing next year brings another season where we can hopefully contend.

It sounds depressing, and it is.  Sometimes reality works that way.

[celts10]

You both make really good points.

One advantage of playing the Heat in the second round or Eastern Conference Finals is that many of our newer additions like Williams, Crawford, White -- heck, even Green and Lee to an extent -- will gain playoff experience and hopefully get the jitters out of the way early on in the postseason.

[hpantazo]

why was a second thread made to discuss the same topic? There is already a thread about the celtics potential playoff seeding and which seed would be better for us.  It's here:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=63590.0

I've already posted my thoughts in that thread

[Celtics18]

Chicago, even without Rose, could easily dispatch us this year, if only for two things: defense and rebounding.  While our offense is better than their's, their defense is far better than ours.

Not true.

[BASS_THUMPER]

cant wait till tomorrow
we gonna run dem fools

[CelticsFan9]

Chicago, even without Rose, could easily dispatch us this year, if only for two things: defense and rebounding.  While our offense is better than their's, their defense is far better than ours.

Not true.

What a detailed rebuttal.

Care to elaborate?

[hpantazo]

Chicago, even without Rose, could easily dispatch us this year, if only for two things: defense and rebounding.  While our offense is better than their's, their defense is far better than ours.

Not true.

What a detailed rebuttal.

Care to elaborate?

yes, please provide some more detailed explanation of why you think it's not true. I agree that Chicago could wipe the floor with us

[Cman]

Face them ASAP

This poster said it best:

This team's success rests on the aging shoulders of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.  In case you didn't know, they're pretty old, by NBA standards.  Personally, I find it utterly stupefying why someone would want this team to have to play two whole rounds of playoff basketball as a primer for the defending champs.  We need to be rested, healthy, and fresh when we play Miami.  Why?  Because if we get to the ECF (NOT A GUARANTEE BY ANY STRETCH), we'll be over here sucking on oxygen while the Heat will have just broken a sweat. 

[hpantazo]

Face them ASAP

This poster said it best:

This team's success rests on the aging shoulders of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.  In case you didn't know, they're pretty old, by NBA standards.  Personally, I find it utterly stupefying why someone would want this team to have to play two whole rounds of playoff basketball as a primer for the defending champs.  We need to be rested, healthy, and fresh when we play Miami.  Why?  Because if we get to the ECF (NOT A GUARANTEE BY ANY STRETCH), we'll be over here sucking on oxygen while the Heat will have just broken a sweat. 

I fully agree. Play them in Round 1 when Pierce and KG are as close to rested as they will get. With no Rondo and no Sullinger, our only chance at success rests fully on Pierce and KG.

[LooseCannon]

It will depend upon relative health, which is something that we can't know right now.

[KGs Knee]

I think you're all nuts.  Attempting to "plan" what round we play this team or that team is a fools errand.

We'll play Miami whenever we do, if we do.  If we can't beat them, we can't beat them; 1st, 2nd or 3rd round.

It's gets me rather irritated; people talking about seeding, and what seed is best.  There should be three simple objectives, and that's it.

1st-Make sure the team is healthy and rested going into the playoffs.  If this means sitting certain players in occasional games, then it must be done.  Limiting minutes is also something to be considered.

2nd-Make sure you're playing your best basketball when the playoffs arrive.  Playing the right way is more important than doing whatvever is necessary to get any individual victory.

3rd-Win as many games as possible, within the constraints of the previous 2 priorities.

Anything beyond these three objectives is usually out of your control.  There's just no sense wasting time concerning one's self with such.

[BASS_THUMPER]

Face them ASAP

This poster said it best:

This team's success rests on the aging shoulders of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.  In case you didn't know, they're pretty old, by NBA standards.  Personally, I find it utterly stupefying why someone would want this team to have to play two whole rounds of playoff basketball as a primer for the defending champs.  We need to be rested, healthy, and fresh when we play Miami.  Why?  Because if we get to the ECF (NOT A GUARANTEE BY ANY STRETCH), we'll be over here sucking on oxygen while the Heat will have just broken a sweat. 

I fully agree. Play them in Round 1 when Pierce and KG are as close to rested as they will get. With no Rondo and no Sullinger, our only chance at success rests fully on Pierce and KG.

preach

and in times like these
is when Paul becomes the Truth