Updated analysis of individual Celtics performance

[crimson_stallion]

With 1/3 of the season gone, a new year starting and a 20 blowout at the hands of the Kings I think it's about due for an updated analysis of who on our roster is performing.

These numbers are based purely on off rating / def rating statistics, so for those who don't believe in these stats feel free to ignore them! 

Personally I think these stats have some merit and I think it's interesting to see how individuals stack up compared to the overall team, as I feel it gives a nice indication of who is pulling their weight versus who is letting the team down.

To help with analysing these stats:
* Off Rating represents points scored, so a higher number is better
* Def Rating represents points allowed, so a lower number is better
* Highlighted positive results in green, negative results in red

So without further ado, here are the numbers.

[lightspeed5]

courtney lee and leandro barbosa: this isnt going to cut it.

[crimson_stallion]

Ok, looking at these stats I can see some small pros and cons, but there are a few major issues that really stand out:

1. Kevin Garnett's backup
When KG is on the court we are 5.57 points better off defensively (Def Rating: 97.73, 4th best in the league). 

When KG is off the court we are 8.08 points worse off defensively (Def Rating: 111.31, last in the league).

Every single Celtics fan knows that our team turns to disaster when KG is on the bench.  These figures tell us that 40% of this is because KG's defense is so good, and 60% of this is because our backup centers are so darn bad.   

To put things into perspective the current worst defensive team in the league is the Bobcats, who have a defensive rating of 108.9. with KG on the bench we have a defensive rating of 111.31 - this is > 2 points worse than the worst defense in the NBA!  Yikes!

I think this clearly identifies a need for another big man who's capable of defending the paint while KG sits.  This won't be enough for us to build leads, but it should at least allow us to hold them!


Scoring behind Paul Pierce
Statistics show that we are almost as bad offensively when PP34 sits as we are defensively when KG sits. 

When Pierce is on the court our offense is +3.28 compared to our team average, with out offensive rating of 105.6 being good for 7th in the league

When Pierce is off the court our offensive is a -7.98 compared to our team average.  Our offensive rating (94.34) is good for second worst in the league, with only the Wizards offense (92. being worse then ours is when the Captain sits.

Similar to the KG situation, the stats here indicate that ths is 30% due to Pierce's excellent offensive ability and 70% due to the poor offensive play of the guys who back Pierce up.

Sure enough Pierce's primary backups are Jeff Green and Courtney Lee who are are two of our worst offensive players with ratings of -6.08 and -3.80 respectively.   

The numbers show that Lee is barely worse the Pierce defensively, while Green is actually significantly better defensively than Pierce.  This shows that offense off our bench is clearly a problem - either Lee or Green needs to replaced by a pure scoring swingman who can consistently put points on the board.


3. Jason Terry's backup
Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger are the only players on our roster who benefit us (statistically) on both ends of the floor.

Terry is one of our better defensive players (-1.8 vs team average) and our defensive rating of 101.5 suggests that we are an average defensive team (15th in the league) when Terry is on the court. 

The surprising result is that we are 3.08 poits worse off when Terry sits, with our defensive rating of 106.38 being good for 27th in the league when Terry is on the bench.

This suggests that Terry is doing a solid job  defensively when he's on the court, but whoever replaces him when he sits down (typically Barbosa or Lee) has been horrendous on that end of the floor. 

Sure enough Lee (+3.26) is the third worst defensive player on the team, while Barbosa (+7.34) is the worst. 

This clearly identifies the need for another strong defensive backcourt player either to back up Terry or to start (and be backed up by Terry).  With the imminent return of Avery Bradley, this shouldn't be a problem for long. 

4. Backup for Rajon Rondo
Our second biggest ofensive hit happens when Rajon Rondo isn't playing. 

We are a +1.72 on offense (104.04 Off Rating, Ranked top 10 in the league) when Rondo plays, but we are a -3.67 (98.65 Off Rtg, ranked 28th in the league) when he is on the bench.

This exposes another weakness for our our team, and that is the backup PG spot.  When Rondo sits we need a backup PG who can give us a net positive (or at least neutral) impact on offense, whether it be via scoring or via playmaking.   

Leandro Barbosa is clearly not doing that, as our offensive rating (94.25) with him on the court is just as bad as our offensive rating (94.34) with Paul Pierce off the court.   

Trade options
Looking at our current roster, it's clear that we'd like KG, Pierce, Terry, Rondo, Bradley and Sullinger to stay on board.

Chris Wilcox and Brandon Bass both help us on offense, but they both hurt us on defense.  If we need to keep one then we are better off with Wilcox because he helps us more on offense (+4.5) than Bass (+2.7) and he doesn't hurt us as much on defense (-3.2 vs -6.34).  Add to that the fact that Wilcox is on a wallet friendly minimum contract and clear Bass is the better of the two to trade.

Jeff Green is the second worst player on our team on offense (-6.08) but defensively his defensive rating (0.02) is actually 4th best on the team. I believe his offense will improve, so I don't mind keeping Green unless an "offer you cant refuse" type deal comes alone.

Collins, Lee and Barbosa are the clearly bad ones.  All three of those guys are hurting us on both ends of the floor when they are on the court, and we are better when they are sitting on the bench.  That's a perfect sign of a guy you need to let go.

So in summary I would be putting Bass, Collins, Lee and Barbosa (along with a 1st Rd pick) on the trading block in the hope of picking up a solid defensive big man to back up KG and either:

1. A backup PG for Rondo

or

2. A consistent volume scorer to lead the bench offensively

[crimson_stallion]

The real depressing stat is that we improve just as much offensively when Courtney Lee goes to the bench as we do when Rondo gets on the court.

Ouch!!!

[nostar]

Nice post! Such a nice post. TP 4 you!

Okay I did some digging and found out that most teams have a guy like Lee. Guys that are useful but have terrible +/- numbers. Here are a few examples from winning-ish teams:

Harrison Barnes
Caron Butler
Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole
Borris Diaw
Kendrick Perkins
Steve Novak/Cory Brewer

There are guys who are doing important things but just don't have good +/- numbers. That is probably Lee. He needs to shoot better and find a way to integrate himself into the offense. He'll probably get better as our rotations solidify.

Barbosa is a 3rd string player and that isn't an abnormal number for 3rd string players. Collins +/- is even worse from what I've seen and he's probably our bigger problem. We're starting a guy who is putting up 3rd string numbers. Have no fear I'm sure Danny knows how to read a +/- sheet.

[crimson_stallion]

Nice post! Such a nice post. TP 4 you!

Okay I did some digging and found out that most teams have a guy like Lee. Guys that are useful but have terrible +/- numbers. Here are a few examples from winning-ish teams:

Harrison Barnes
Caron Butler
Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole
Borris Diaw
Kendrick Perkins
Steve Novak/Cory Brewer

There are guys who are doing important things but just don't have good +/- numbers. That is probably Lee. He needs to shoot better and find a way to integrate himself into the offense. He'll probably get better as our rotations solidify.

Barbosa is a 3rd string player and that isn't an abnormal number for 3rd string players. Collins +/- is even worse from what I've seen and he's probably our bigger problem. We're starting a guy who is putting up 3rd string numbers. Have no fear I'm sure Danny knows how to read a +/- sheet.

Why thank you 

I think the Off/Def rating is actually a bit different to the +/- rating.

+/- only takes into account how much the lead increases / decreases when a player steps on/off the floor.  I imagine that this could be very strongly affected by the teams rotations - for example Boston had a certain player who always came in and out of the game the same time as KG, thenhe would probably have a very strong positive +/- but it would be because of KG's play, not because of his. 

The Off / Def ratings however IIRC are based on fomulas that focus more on the individuals performance: 

Offensive Rating:

"Offensive Rating" is a statistic used in basketball to measure either a team's offensive performance or an individual player's efficiency at producing points for the offense. It was created by author and statistician Dean Oliver.
 
For players, the formula is: Offensive Rating = (Points Produced / Individual Possessions) x 100
 
Points can be produced through field goals, free throws, assists, and offensive rebounds. Individual possessions are the sum of a player's scoring possessions (field goals, free throws, plus partial credit for assists), missed field goals and free throws that the defense rebounds, and turnovers.

Defensive Rating

Defensive Rating is a statistic used in basketball to
measure an individual player's efficiency at preventing the other team from scoring points.

The formula is: Defensive Rating = (Opponent's Points Allowed/ Opponent's Possessions) x 100. The result is the expected amount of points that an individual player will allow on defense over 100 possessions.

Chalmers actually has a very strong positive net rating or +13.4, but the others you listed do indeed have negative ratings. 

I think I know why Lee's numbers are so unimpressive, even though according to the eye test, it looks like he's doing pretty well. 

I've noticed in the last few games that Lee actually plays pretty solid individual defense, however he appears to be very poor at team defense. 

I've noticed lately that he will man up his defensive assignment nicely when they have the ball, but he is incredibly bad at reacting to defensive rotations, especially on three point shooters.  He'll wait until a player catches the ball before he even begins to run at them, and by the time he gets close they have already released the wide open shot.  Last game against Golden State I was vaguely keeping count and there were at least 3-4 three point shots that were scored against Lee's slow rotations.  May not seem like a lot, but that's 9-12 free points he's essentially given up to the opposing team.

I was watching Terry in the same game, and although his on-ball defense doesn't look as aggressive as Lee's, Terry is actually very sharp with his team defense and reacts very quickly to roations.  As soon an opposing player begins to make a pass he has identified who it's going to and he immeidately begins to rotate over - by the time the defense catches the ball Terry has a hand in his face and has affected the shot. 

[BudweiserCeltic]

That is probably Lee. He needs to shoot better and find a way to integrate himself into the offense. He'll probably get better as our rotations solidify.

What does shoot better even mean? He's shooting a career high FG%, was shooting over 50% from the field in the month of December until that crappy game in Sacramento, still 46% for a month is quite solid.

Anyways, I don't care much for on and off analysis... there's too much noise in those numbers for me to give them any credibility.

[crimson_stallion]

What does shoot better even mean? He's shooting a career high FG%, was shooting over 50% from the field in the month of December until that crappy game in Sacramento, still 46% for a month is quite solid.

Anyways, I don't care much for on and off analysis... there's too much noise in those numbers for me to give them any credibility.

These stats are Off/Def ratings and not on/off stats.

As described above I think Lee's negative def rating is due to his horrible defensive rotations on opposing shooters.  I think his negative off ratings is do to a combination of high turnovers, plus the fact that he just doesn't do a lot on offense - doesn't take or make enough shots to be a major factor in the majority of games.

[mctyson]

Crimson_Stallion,

Are these individual stats based on only this year?  Can you look at the individual stats from this year and compare to last year?  My question is who on our team is not playing as well as they did previously (e.g. Courtney Lee).

[mctyson]

I don't even care much about the offensive stats, I'll go right to the defense.

Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee either play better or they HAVE TO GO.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger are defensive savants considering after KG, they're boasting the best defensive ratings on the team.

[mgent]

Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger are defensive savants considering after KG, they're boasting the best defensive ratings on the team.

5% of the time analytics can make sense, most of the time you see stuff like this.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger are defensive savants considering after KG, they're boasting the best defensive ratings on the team.

5% of the time analytics can make sense, most of the time you see stuff like this.

Analystics are not the problem. It's putting numbers in a vaccum with little context.

This types of numbers are heavily influenced by effectiveness of units and the team mates you're playing with. For example, Terry is a starter and plays a lot with KG. And considering that KG is by far our best defender on our team, particularly because no one else on this team can provide what he does guarding the rim, then it stands to reason that players that play alongside him will look better defensively than those that not.

The numbers depicted in the table above are really meaningless to me to analyze individual players without taking into consideration a lot of factors that influence the numbers. Hence why I mentioned there's a lot of noise.

Then we have players like Lee for example. He's a good defender. Not a lock-down defender, but a good defender on his own right. He had a poor November, from our guards, he spends the least amount of time playing alongside Garnett, and he's our guard that has spent the most time playing alongside Barbosa. He's often the player on the floor when Doc goes with Bass and Sully together. And when we're losing badly, like we've done a lot of times this year, he's often on the floor on garbage time when teams are just shooting 3s after 3s, or going to the rim at will as a going away present.

Then you consider Wilcox, playing out of position the whole season. He's never on the floor with Garnett (I'd be surprised if he's spent more than 6 minutes together with him), and often has to cover for Bass and Sullinger's deficiencies. He's not a good defender, but he can be better for us as a team defender than what the chart shows if he played alongside players that will put him in better positions to succeed.

Put Wilcox in the starting unit with KG, and I guarantee you this team will be doing much better at the beginning of the game from both sides of the floor.

[crimson_stallion]

I think it's not so much a case of the numbers being innacurate as it is a case of people just not wanting to accept what they see. 

For example I checked these stats back when Courtney Lee was starting alongside KG and he still had a similar defensive rating, so going to the bench hasn't really changed it.

Courtney Lee just isn't the lock-down defender people believe him to be.  Lets look at his historic statistics:

* 2012 - 2013 Boston Celtics (+3.26)
* 2011 - 2012 Houston Rockets (-0.75)
* 2010 - 2011 Houston Rockets (+0.9)
* 2009 - 2010 New Jersey Nets (+5.58)
* 2008 - 2009 Orlando Magic (+2.18)

With the exception of last season with the Rockets, Lee has had a below average defensive rating every single season that he's been in the league.  Even the one good defensive season he had (last season) strayed barely above neutral.  He is pretty much an average defender at best, and a mediocre defender at worst.  Again this doesn't surprise me at all given how many open three's I've seen him allow over the last few games.

Also there is no pattern here at all to suggest that the figures are strongly affected by who someone plays with. 

Bass has started the majority of this season alongside KG, yet his defensive rating is the second worst on the team (+6).  Last year his defensive rating was similarly poor (+3), despite him being a starter on an elite defensive team.  In the playoffs his defensive rating was identical to this seaon (+6) so the numbers show that Bass has been hurting us on defense as long as he's been in a Celtics uniform.

I've noticed that Sullinger struggled defensively at the start of the season, but he has been playing very solid defense for about the past 10 games.  Sure enough he has a good def rating right now despite the fact that he's spent most of this season coming off the bench, and when I checked his stats about a month or two ago he had a below average rating (around +3).

Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo - both bonafide starters - both have slightly negative defensive ratings despite spending most of their time on the court with KG.

Jeff Green has been purely a bench player this season and is often on the court without KG, yet his defensive rating is neutral. In fact ironically it looks like Green's defense has improved as a Celtic, because he's had better defensive ratings in both 2010 and 2012 then he ever had in OKC:

* 2012-2013 BOS (+0.02)
* 2010-2011 BOS/OKC (+4.72)
* 2009-2010 OKC (+10.61)
* 2008-2009 OKC (+5.76)

Need more proof?  Ray Allen was mostly healthy during the reg season last year, but people had noticed his defense had declined with age.  In the playoffs he was hurt and his defense dropped from below average to simply horrendous.  This season he has been notoriously bad on defense for Miami.  The numbers reflect this accurately:

* 2012-2013 Season MIA (+9.00)
* 2011-2012 Playoffs BOS (+10.23)
* 2011-2012 Season BOS (+4.94)
* 2010-2011 Season BOS (+1.68)

Some people are complaining that Terry was a better defensive player in Dallas, but has struggled here.  The stats say otherwise:

*2012-2013 Season BOS (-4.88)
*2011-2012 Playoffs DAL (+7.53)
*2011-2012 Season DAL (+5.88)
*2010-2011 Playoffs DAL (+3.12)
*2010-2011 Season DAL (+3.13)
*2009-2010 Season DAL (+0.32)
*2008-2009 Season DAL (+1.15)
*2007-2008 Season DAL (+2.16)

Terry has been a consistently average or below average defender in his past 5 seasons with Dallas, yet this season in Boston his statistics suggest he has been significantly above average.  Dallas were never a defensive oriented team so maybe Terry has benefitted greatly coming to a team with a defensive coach and culture.  Either way Terry has spend just as much time with KG as he has without, so KG's presence doesn't explain his good defensive numbers.

Surely there is room for other players to impact the numbers to some small degree - if the lineup is full of poor help defenders and you let your defender get by you, they will most likely score.  If your lineup is full of great help defenders and you let your defender get by you he probably won't score due to quality help defense, and whether or not your assigment scores would impact on your defensive rating. 

Still, based on individual numbers there doesn't appear to be any pattern suggesting that players who are on the court with KG have got better defensive ratings. 

It's not just on defense either - it's the same deal on offense. 

Kevin Garnett spends the majority of his time on the court with Rondo, Pierce and Terry - Boston's top offensive players.  Despite this fact, KG has a negative offensive rating this season.  Last season KG was a +9.56 on offense when playing alongside Rondo, Pierce and Ray Allen.  This season he is a -4.88 when playing with Rondo, Pierce and Terry.

Jason Terry is a +3.29 on offense this season and Ray Allen was a +4.45 on offense last season.  Very little difference between the two, so I can assure you Ray Allen was not the reason for KG's -14.4 drop offensively. 

Jared Sullinger and Chris Wilcox both have positive offensive ratings despite the fact that both have been almost exclusively bench players.  In fact they are the only two guys on the bench who have positive offensive ratings (Bass has been a starter for most of the season).

This is why I think these numbers aren't as biased as people think.  There just isn't enough consistency there to suggest that the player's numbers are skewed depending on who they play with.

[KGs Knee]

BudweiserCeltic:

--- Quote from: mgent on Today at 06:06:46 AM ---
--- Quote from: BudweiserCeltic on Today at 04:18:12 AM ---Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger are defensive savants considering after KG, they're boasting the best defensive ratings on the team.

--- End quote ---
5% of the time analytics can make sense, most of the time you see stuff like this.

--- End quote ---

Analystics are not the problem. It's putting numbers in a vaccum with little context.

This types of numbers are heavily influenced by effectiveness of units and the team mates you're playing with. For example, Terry is a starter and plays a lot with KG. And considering that KG is by far our best defender on our team, particularly because no one else on this team can provide what he does guarding the rim, then it stands to reason that players that play alongside him will look better defensively than those that not.

The numbers depicted in the table above are really meaningless to me to analyze individual players without taking into consideration a lot of factors that influence the numbers. Hence why I mentioned there's a lot of noise.

Then we have players like Lee for example. He's a good defender. Not a lock-down defender, but a good defender on his own right. He had a poor November, from our guards, he spends the least amount of time playing alongside Garnett, and he's our guard that has spent the most time playing alongside Barbosa. He's often the player on the floor when Doc goes with Bass and Sully together. And when we're losing badly, like we've done a lot of times this year, he's often on the floor on garbage time when teams are just shooting 3s after 3s, or going to the rim at will as a going away present.

Then you consider Wilcox, playing out of position the whole season. He's never on the floor with Garnett (I'd be surprised if he's spent more than 6 minutes together with him), and often has to cover for Bass and Sullinger's deficiencies. He's not a good defender, but he can be better for us as a team defender than what the chart shows if he played alongside players that will put him in better positions to succeed.

Put Wilcox in the starting unit with KG, and I guarantee you this team will be doing much better at the beginning of the game from both sides of the floor.
------------------------------------------- END QUOTE

KG AND Wilcox could very well be our best defensive lineup.  Play Collins with Bass/Sully.

Kg is probably getting a rest from playing centers right now.  This was possibly planned.