2012-13 NBA Preview: Atlantic Division (by SI's Ian Thomsen)
How They'll Finish
1
New York Knicks
2011-12 Record: 36-30; lost to Heat in first round
Top Addition: Jason Kidd | Biggest Loss: Jeremy Lin
After being in transition for years, New York entered a full training camp with coach Mike Woodson emphasizing defense around a front line of leaders who are capable of protecting the paint. Health permitting, the Knicks will build their defense around Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler, former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Camby and Kurt Thomas, who will prove valuable when the playoffs come. Carmelo Anthony is in terrific shape after the Olympics and promised to share the ball with Amar'e Stoudemire, who spent the summer developing his low-post game. Most important is the acquisition of Jason Kidd, who will help fellow point guard Raymond Felton establish a flow to enable Anthony and Stoudemire work in tandem. They'll be seeking to reincarnate the gritty climate of the old Jeff Van Gundy Knicks, and it's an achievable goal.
2
Brooklyn Nets
2011-12 Record: 22-44
Top Addition: Joe Johnson | Biggest Loss: Anthony Morrow
Spurned by Dwight Howard but reclaimed by Deron Williams, the Nets enter their new home with hope of instantly challenging the Knicks' ownership of New York. Their pieces make sense, because Joe Johnson is a star who doesn't crave the headlines, and Brook Lopez is the low-post threat who can balance the perimeter scoring of Williams and Johnson. This is a big team across the board with a coach in Avery Johnson who will emphasize defense. Will they get enough scoring off the bench from MarShon Brooks and 27-year-old Bosnian rookie Mirza Teletovic? The Nets will need time to develop chemistry, and their sense of togetherness will have to grow quickly amid the divisional challenges of the Knicks and Celtics.
3
Boston Celtics
2011-12 Record: 39-27; lost to Heat in East finals
Top Addition: Jason Terry | Biggest Loss: Ray Allen
With no young free-agent stars available for hire, the Celtics brought back their old names (or tried to, before Ray Allen escaped to Miami) for another year of contention. They'll use the regular season to weave in young complementary players like Courtney Lee, Jeff Green, Avery Bradley (who hopes to return before the new year after surgery on both shoulders) and rookie Jared Sullinger, who can provide much-needed rebounding. More important than their seeding in the conference will be the development of a deep roster that can support Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry for another run to the Finals. Pulling all of this together is Rajon Rondo, the last of the pure point guards, who remains hungry to prove he is the league's best at his position. The Celtics will be leaning on him more than ever.
4
Philadelphia 76ers
2011-12 Record: 35-31; lost to Celtics in second round
Top Addition: Andrew Bynum | Biggest Loss: Andre Iguodala
After maxing out their young small-ball roster to take Boston to a Game 7 in the Eastern semifinals, the 76ers went big by rebuilding around Andrew Bynum, the most skilled low-post scorer in the league. Not only will the Sixers be gambling on Bynum's health, but they'll also need to redevelop their depth chart around him while encouraging third-year swingman Evan Turner to take over the multiple roles filled by Olympic gold medalist Andre Iguodala, who was dealt to Denver in the trade for Bynum. There are sure to be nights when the Sixers won't quite know whether they're supposed to play fast or slow, but that's what Doug Collins is for -- he's one of the best coaches in the league, and he's going to have his hands full working through this transition to a new style of play.
5
Toronto Raptors
2011-12 Record: 23-43
Top Addition: Kyle Lowry | Biggest Loss: James Johnson
The Raptors are the forgotten team of this crowded division, but they'll be heard from in years ahead. This season will be invested in establishing a frontcourt rapport between Andrea Bargnani (who will be trying to regain his health) and rookie center Jonas Valanciunas. Future star DeMar DeRozan will be paired with rookie shooting guard Terrence Ross to provide Toronto with explosive athleticism on the wing. Kyle Lowry will have a chance to lay down roots after leaving Houston in unhappy circumstances. The Raptors won't challenge for the playoffs this year, but by the end of the season there may be enormous hope for what's to come.
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I posted this just to start a discussion. Ian Thomsen has the right to his opinion, though I would question his actual analysis, and therefore his paycheck as a NBA analyst.
In his very first sentence for the Celtics he mentions the word "old." In his entire Knicks' write-up, he doesn't once mention the word "old," though they're THE OLDEST TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF THE NBA. I know he writes "old names" when referring to Celtics' veterans, but that word choice was no doubt influenced by their age and the media's obsession with Boston's age. He could have easily written "veterans." He does the opposite with Marcus Camby, referring to him as "former Defensive Player of the Year," when he easily could have written "old-as-hell and already injured." He could have also referred to Amare as "perpetually injured..." Semantics, some say.
As long as Pierce leads the team in ppg and KG mans the paint, analysts will refer to the Celtics as old. I'm fine with that. If Pierce or KG go down with an injury, the analysts will be vindicated. If not, they'll say the players fought off Father Time. It's the same schtick as the past few years. Thomsen is just playing along. And, that's the problem. He doesn't seem to have analyzed anything other than what other analysts have already written.
Where I get confused is where Thomsen somehow assumes all will be well in chemistry town for the Knicks/Nets. He actually mentions Melo's promise to share the ball more. I think I've heard that before. I don't think Melo keeps his promises. But, why bring up the past when we can completely ignore it and ficus on the future. Not only are the Knicks/Nets folding in just as many new players as the Celtics, they're doing it with coaches not as talented as Doc, and with players not as giving as KG and Terry, etc.
In my completely unbiased opinion, the Atlantic will finish as follows (barring a catastrophic injury to a superstar - e.g. Rondo, Melo, Deron, Bynum):
1. Celtics
2. Knicks
3. 76ers
4. Nets
5. Raptors
- The Celtics will be balancing lineups and playing time throughout the regular season, but I cannot see them dropping below the likes of the Knicks.
- The Knicks will have chemistry and injury issues throughout the year. I believe Mike Woodson is more likely to be fired than lead the Knicks to the ECF.
- The 76ers's success rests entirely on Bynum's health, though their young guns should be able to win them some games here or there. If Bynum misses much of the season, I see them fighting the Raptors to stay out of the basement.
- The Nets have proven nothing and therefore do not deserve to be above the Knicks or 76ers. Adding Joe Johnson doesn't make anyone shake in their boots. Let's see if Lopez can stay healthy and then we'll see where this team finishes. By the way, Johnson is going to take a lot of Brooks' shot attempts and minutes away, so Brooks' offense won't be as potent.
- The Raptors. Meh.
If the Celtics stay healthy, they should win the division by a few games. The 2-4 seeds are more closely bunched and could finish in any order. Health will be key. The Raptors are still bottom-dwellers.
Thoughts?
Topic: Ian Thomsen believes in Knicks/Nets, not in Boston (Read 12168 times)