Reality check for the people counting on Fab

[Eja117]

Fab just finished his sophomore year in the Big East. He was picked 22.

Here are other bigs drafted in the 18-27ish range in the past decade.  Think of their rookie years. That is how much Fab can be reasonably counted on to help

2011 picked at 27.  JuJuan Johnson.  (Noteable he was Big Ten POY and DPOY)
2010  21 Craig Brackins, 29 Daniel Orton
2009 24 BJ Mullens, 26 Taj Gibson
2008 ..this was a pretty good year...18 JaVale McGee 19 JJ Hickson, 20 Alexis Anjicia, 21 Ryan Anderson, 23 Kosta Kufos, 24 Serge Ibaka
2007 17 Sean Williams, 20 Jason Smith, 28 Tiago Splitter
2006 19 Olekisy Pecherov 23 Josh Boone
2005 25 Johan Petro
2004 21 Pavel Podkolzine 30 David Harrison......I'm stopping there because now we're into the era of high school draft picks.


Now.  Try to imagine all these guys in their rookie year.   There are like maybe 3 guys here that had a good rookie year.  Were those good rookie years on playoff teams? On playoff teams looking for a ring?  JJJ was a rookie on a playoff team. 

You couldn't possibly look to any of these guys for help on a playoff team back then.   But in 2004-05 Shawn Bradley (GASP/PUKE) per 36 mins averaged 8.6 pts, 8.7 rebs, and 2.6 blks

Tony Battie at that time was in the middle of his career and had similar numbers.

At that time Battie and Bradley could have been reasonable last lines of defense or deep rotational guys who could help a playoff team

Collins is Battie. Darko is Shawn Bradley. Fab is rookie Jason Smith. Or rookie Johan Petro. Or rookie Kosta Kufos. We don't know what he is but you want the other guys here.  You don't want to rely on rookie David Anderson or be praying for rookie Serge Ibaka who did well for a rookie. If he turns out to be Serge great. Play him. But there weren't a lot of rookie Ibakas on that list.

That list is split about 50/50 on guys that did well and guys that didn't but of the guys that did well only 2 or 3 of them did it in their rookie years.

[perks-a-beast]

Thank you. I'm actually shocked at how many Celtics fans think Melo will get significant minutes this season. I think over time his athletisism and defensive abilities will make him a solid big (Think DeAndre Jordan) but that's probably 3 or 4 years down the line. He's just so raw right now.

With Millicic now in the fold i'll be surprised if Melo gets even a single minute in Boston this year. This year he just needs to improving as a player in Maine, improving his rebounding, offense and hopefully watch the Celtics very closely and take notes. 

[BostonNative]

Only differnce is this year everyone was saying "THIS DRAFT IS SO DEEP!"

[Eja117]

Also look at how Fab did in summer league against other rookies, many of whom won't be on an NBA roster this year. Will that help you? Honestly I'm not sure how good he'll even do in Maine. 

I'm not anti-Fab.  I'm just sorta looking at the odds and in show-me mode.

[perks-a-beast]

Also look at how Fab did in summer league against other rookies, many of whom won't be on an NBA roster this year. Will that help you? Honestly I'm not sure how good he'll even do in Maine. 

I'm not anti-Fab.  I'm just sorta looking at the odds and in show-me mode.

I wouldn't read too much in to summer league. I can remember watching Perkins in summer league in 03 when it was still in Boston. He looked god awful. Way worse than Melo looked. Fast forward 5 years later and he's the starting center on a title team.

I know Perkins was 18 and Melo is 22 but what most people forget is that Melo didn't even start playing Basketball until 16 years old. Just give him some time, i'm sure he will surprise you in about 4 years.

[Eja117]

Also look at how Fab did in summer league against other rookies, many of whom won't be on an NBA roster this year. Will that help you? Honestly I'm not sure how good he'll even do in Maine. 

I'm not anti-Fab.  I'm just sorta looking at the odds and in show-me mode.

I wouldn't read too much in to summer league. I can remember watching Perkins in summer league in 03 when it was still in Boston. He looked god awful. Way worse than Melo looked. Fast forward 5 years later and he's the starting center on a title team.

I know Perkins was 18 and Melo is 22 but what most people forget is that Melo didn't even start playing Basketball until 16 years old. Just give him some time, i'm sure he will surprise you in about 4 years.

But Perkins was not ready to contribute that year and his summer performance showed that. I'm not saying Fab Mello can't help a team. I'm saying rookie Fab probably won't.

[perks-a-beast]

Also look at how Fab did in summer league against other rookies, many of whom won't be on an NBA roster this year. Will that help you? Honestly I'm not sure how good he'll even do in Maine. 

I'm not anti-Fab.  I'm just sorta looking at the odds and in show-me mode.

I wouldn't read too much in to summer league. I can remember watching Perkins in summer league in 03 when it was still in Boston. He looked god awful. Way worse than Melo looked. Fast forward 5 years later and he's the starting center on a title team.

I know Perkins was 18 and Melo is 22 but what most people forget is that Melo didn't even start playing Basketball until 16 years old. Just give him some time, i'm sure he will surprise you in about 4 years.

But Perkins was not ready to contribute that year and his summer performance showed that. I'm not saying Fab Mello can't help a team. I'm saying rookie Fab probably won't.

Probably not. But i can see him putting up solid numbers in Maine. 13/8/2. Something like that.

[arambone]

Only differnce is this year everyone was saying "THIS DRAFT IS SO DEEP!"

With good reason. The lockout caused guys like Harrison Barnes, Terrence Jones, and Jared Sullinger to stay an extra year. It was also an obviously deep freshman class, with Davis, MKG, Beal, and Drummond.

Not many draft eligible prospects from any class decided to stay in school this year. Deep draft.

JJJ was a borderline 1st round pick in a weak draft, and his slight frame should have been much more of a concern than it was for Danny.

Guys with Melo's physical profile and upside rarely drop out of the top 15 in a normal draft.

Getting bad grades doesn't make Melo a worse player. March Madness often has a big impact on draft position. Melo missing the exposure of a deep Tourney run affected his stock, to the Celtics benefit.

Last year Danny decided against bringing Delonte back because he wanted to free up minutes for Avery Bradley, who Danny believed was up to the challenge. While Bradley's development benefited immensely from the opportunity, not signing Delonte may have ultimately cost the Celtics the Heat series and a possible championship. When Bradley went down and Ray was injured and over-extended, DWest would have been a difference maker. As it was, Doc only had Moore on the bench, and didn't play him.

Danny may have learned that it is better to add too much depth to a roster than to find out later in the season that you didn't have quite enough depth to win a championship.

Adding Darko may turn out to have been an unnecessary move, and Melo may end up ahead of him in the rotation, but why take that chance and the chance of injuries decimating the front line?

Adding Darko isn't necessarily an indictment of Melo as much as it is a sign that Danny is doing absolutely everything in his power to assemble a championship team, regardless of the possible affect on Melo's development.

I would much rather the Celtics have too much depth now than not enough depth in the playoffs because of unexpected injuries.

Darko and Collins are still fighting for roster spots and minutes over Melo, even though they have contracts.

Good job Danny.

[Eja117]

Also look at how Fab did in summer league against other rookies, many of whom won't be on an NBA roster this year. Will that help you? Honestly I'm not sure how good he'll even do in Maine. 

I'm not anti-Fab.  I'm just sorta looking at the odds and in show-me mode.

I wouldn't read too much in to summer league. I can remember watching Perkins in summer league in 03 when it was still in Boston. He looked god awful. Way worse than Melo looked. Fast forward 5 years later and he's the starting center on a title team.

I know Perkins was 18 and Melo is 22 but what most people forget is that Melo didn't even start playing Basketball until 16 years old. Just give him some time, i'm sure he will surprise you in about 4 years.

But Perkins was not ready to contribute that year and his summer performance showed that. I'm not saying Fab Mello can't help a team. I'm saying rookie Fab probably won't.

Probably not. But i can see him putting up solid numbers in Maine. 13/8/2. Something like that.

Ok I totally give you that. Fab may very well put up solid Maine numbers last year the way Jeremy Tyler did in the NBDL last year. But that won't help us this year. I would think Darko and Jason Collins could also put up pretty decent numbers in Maine

[Eja117]

Only differnce is this year everyone was saying "THIS DRAFT IS SO DEEP!"

With good reason. The lockout caused guys like Harrison Barnes, Terrence Jones, and Jared Sullinger to stay an extra year. It was also an obviously deep freshman class, with Davis, MKG, Beal, and Drummond.

Not many draft eligible prospects from any class decided to stay in school this year. Deep draft.

JJJ was a borderline 1st round pick in a weak draft, and his slight frame should have been much more of a concern than it was for Danny.

Guys with Melo's physical profile and upside rarely drop out of the top 15 in a normal draft.

Getting bad grades doesn't make Melo a worse player. March Madness often has a big impact on draft position. Melo missing the exposure of a deep Tourney run affected his stock, to the Celtics benefit.

Last year Danny decided against bringing Delonte back because he wanted to free up minutes for Avery Bradley, who Danny believed was up to the challenge. While Bradley's development benefited immensely from the opportunity, not signing Delonte may have ultimately cost the Celtics the Heat series and a possible championship. When Bradley went down and Ray was injured and over-extended, DWest would have been a difference maker. As it was, Doc only had Moore on the bench, and didn't play him.

Danny may have learned that it is better to add too much depth to a roster than to find out later in the season that you didn't have quite enough depth to win a championship.

Adding Darko may turn out to have been an unnecessary move, and Melo may end up ahead of him in the rotation, but why take that chance and the chance of injuries decimating the front line?

Adding Darko isn't necessarily an indictment of Melo as much as it is a sign that Danny is doing absolutely everything in his power to assemble a championship team, regardless of the possible affect on Melo's development.

I would much rather the Celtics have too much depth now than not enough depth in the playoffs because of unexpected injuries.

Darko and Collins are still fighting for roster spots and minutes over Melo, even though they have contracts.

Good job Danny.

I am eja and I approve this message

[BostonNative]

honestly I believe they are all in the same boat. None of them are any better then the other. Well expect Melo would be last since he is clueless on O. But relying on Darko and Collins is no breath of fresh air.

[perks-a-beast]

honestly I believe they are all in the same boat. None of them are any better then the other. Well expect Melo would be last since he is clueless on O. But relying on Darko and Collins is no breath of fresh air.

I think too many people sleep on Sullinger as a 5. Guys only an inch shorter and weighs about the same as Dwight Howard. In todays NBA where alot of good teams play small there is no doubt Sullinger can be an effective 5.

[Eja117]

honestly I believe they are all in the same boat. None of them are any better then the other. Well expect Melo would be last since he is clueless on O. But relying on Darko and Collins is no breath of fresh air.

I think too many people sleep on Sullinger as a 5. Guys only an inch shorter and weighs about the same as Dwight Howard. In todays NBA where alot of good teams play small there is no doubt Sullinger can be an effective 5.

yeah but we're talking about some college fat weight vs ...uh...sports science weight

[LooseCannon]

Thank you. I'm actually shocked at how many Celtics fans think Melo will get significant minutes this season. I think over time his athletisism and defensive abilities will make him a solid big (Think DeAndre Jordan) but that's probably 3 or 4 years down the line. He's just so raw right now.

DeAndre Jordan averaged 14.5 mpg in 53 games as a 20-year-old rookie (on a bad team).  Darko Milicic averaged 4.7 mpg in 34 games as an 18-year-old rookie (on a good team).  I wouldn't be shocked if Fab Melo ends up with playing time somewhere in the middle. 

[arambone]

Melo can do several things that Perk couldn't do as well even at his pre-injury peak.

-Taller
-Longer
-Way better shot blocker
-faster off-ball rotating speed
-Way better passer
-Faster up and down the court
-Same or better free throw shooter
-Way better jump shooter with much longer range to stretch the floor. (There was never a need for opposing bigs to leave the paint if Perk went outside of 6 feet. Melo will be able to pull opposing bigs out to 15 feet.)
-Comparable rebounder
-Similar hands (not great, not horrible)


It's funny how every big looks better playing next to KG and Rondo. Perk was a very mediocre player who looked great next to KG and parlayed that into a ridiculous contract that OKC may very well amnesty at some point.

Bass looked better next to KG than he ever looked before.
Semih Erden looked decent next to KG and Rondo, but never did anything after leaving.

Hollins looked way better next to KG and Rondo, after getting cut by the lowly Cavs.

Stiemsma looked way better than he ever looked before, and KG and Rondo made him look like a competent NBA player for the first time.

Big Baby looked better in Boston than he did with the Magic when he left.

Melo is equal or superior to Perkins in every way except possibly man-to-man defense and the wisdom that comes with experience.

Why would we be shocked when KG and Rondo make Melo look like Tyson Chandler or a poor-man's Tyson Chandler?

Is Melo going to be expected to take the ball up the court?
Is Melo going to be expected to be a play making passer from the center spot?
Is Melo going to even touch the ball more than absolutely necessary, even though Perk was never passed to unless he was wide open?

When Melo makes a stupid pass, why would we give him more grief than we gave Perk when he made several knuckle-headed passes every single game, even at his apex?


Melo is an elite shot blocker already, possibly top 10-15 in the NBA. He has elite help defense instincts, and the vision, footwork and athleticism to rotate very quickly for a big man.
He shot a very high FG% in limited touches for 'Cuse. The guy can finish, the guy can catch and finish lobs from Rondo, and the guy can hit 15 footers at an acceptable rate for a big man.

I think Melo will be better than the current version of Perk by February at the latest. He has most of the same weaknesses as Perk, who looked like a 10 Million dollar player next to KG and Rondo.

And Melo's rebounding will be decent at worst, now that he's playing man to man defense and is more experienced and confident. At the very least, Melo has the length, instincts, vision, and athleticism to tip many many rebounds to his teammates.

Even if Melo gets sent to Maine because of our depth, don't be surprised if he makes a major impact by the playoffs, making us remember that Collins and Darko were the minimum salary insurance stiffs that they are.

Melo could be a 10-8-3 guy by the end of the year, easy. Most big men make stupid turnovers. Even the legendary Perk.