Boston vs LA / Miami

[crimson_stallion]

I just saw a link by Boris Badenov in another thread, which compared the clutch production of Jason Terry to that of Ray Allen:

Also, look at the JET's 4th quarter and clutch stats on 82games. For the last 5 years, he's consistently in the top 15-20 players, there's no other Celtic that is above him except for Pierce last year.

I haven't had time to check the actual stats...Lord knows I'm glad to have Jet on our team, BUT:

Is he as clutch as Ray?

I posted some more detailed information about this a while back:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=59619.msg1301680#msg1301680

(In short, yes.)

I got carried away and looked deeper into the stats.  I looked at all the top 100 clutch performers in the NBA on a Per-48 minute basis in terms of scoring, assists and rebounds. 

The results were pretty interesting...

Clutch scoring per 48 minutes (Top 100)

Boston
Rank | Player  | PP48 | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | Ass'd
-------------------------------------------------
10   | Pierce  | 37.5 | 55% | 60%  | 75% | 55%
13   | Terry   | 34.3 | 45% | 39%  | 93% | 56%
51   | Garnett | 23.0 | 38% |  -%  | 86% | 70%
64   | Lee     | 21.2 | 44% | 50%  | 88% | 60%
72   | Bass    | 19.9 | 45% |  -%  | 100%| 77%
Tot = 135.9 PP48

Miami
Rank | Player  | PP48 | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | Ass'd
-------------------------------------------------
18   | James   | 33.2 | 39% | 27%  | 68% | 29%
31   | Wade    | 27.9 | 38% | 20%  | 64% | 42%
32   | Bosh    | 27.5 | 57% | 50%  | 78% | 80%
55   | Allen   | 22.6 | 45% | 50%  | 87% | 91%
96   | Chalmers| 16.0 | 41% | 17%  | 89% | 42%
Tot = 127.2 PP48

LAL
Rank | Player  | PP48 | FG% | 3PT% | FT% | Ass'd
-------------------------------------------------
12   | Bryant  | 36.3 | 33% | 21%  | 80% | 29%
45   | Nash    | 25.4 | 44% | 43%  | 100%|  0%
68   | Howard  | 20.2 | 54% | - %  | 44% | 50%
100  | Gasol   | 14.9 | 47% | 33%  | 71% | 76%
Tot = 96.8 PP48

Clutch Assists per 48 minutes

Boston
Rank | Player  | AP48
---------------------
2    | Rondo   | 13.7
24   | Pierce  | 6.5
41   | Garnett | 4.5
62   | Lee     | 3.3
83   | Bass    | 2.3
93   | Terry   | 2.0
Tot = 32.3 AP48

Miami
Rank | Player  | AP48
---------------------
7    | James   | 9.3
15   | Wade    | 8.0
56   | Battier | 3.5
63   | Chalmers| 3.2
Tot = 24 AP48

LAL
Rank | Player  | AP48
---------------------
3    | Nash    | 10.3
20   | Bryant  | 6.8
34   | Gasol   | 5.0
37   | MWP     | 4.9
Tot = 27 AP48

Clutch Rebounds per 48 minutes

Boston
Rank | Player  | RP48
---------------------
15   | Garnett | 15.1
42   | Rondo   | 10.9
67   | Bass    | 7.7
95   | Pierce  | 5.9
Tot = 39.6 RP48

Miami
Rank | Player  | RP48
---------------------
14   | James   | 15.1
43   | Haslem  | 10.8
77   | Bosh    | 7.0
94   | Wade    | 6.0
Tot = 38.9 RP48

LAL
Rank | Player  | RP48
---------------------
3    | Howard  | 19.8
37   | Gasol   | 11.6
65   | Bryant  | 7.8
89   | Jamison | 6.2
Tot = 45.4 RP48

Our new backcourt additions (Terry and Lee) both rank top 100 in the NBA in clutch scoring and clutch assists.  Plus in the clutch they both shoot over 44% from the field, 39% from three and 88% from the foul line.

That's a very nice replacemement for Ray Allen who individually ranked only 55th in clutch scoring, and didn't even make the top 100 in clutch assists (meaning the offense pretty much stopped with him in the clutch). 

Even more impressive is that every player who ranked top 100 on our team in clutch scoring also ranked top 100 in clutch assists. That means we should have a very capable offense this year, that really should run like a well oiled machine. 

Another nice thing is that Lee and Terry are both only assisted on 50% - 60% of their clutch shots, which means they are both roughly just as capable of creating their own shot as they are in catch-and-shoot situations. If you look at our previous lineup (Pierce, Bass, Garnett, Allen) Pierce is the only one of those guys really capable of creating his own shot - Bass, Garnett and Allen all score at least 70% of their shots off assists.  I already saw this value in Terry, but the overwealming view around fans is that Courney Lee is nothing but a spot up shooter - these stat's suggest he's just as capable of creating his own shot as Pierce or Terry. The great thing about this is that by putting Lee, Terry and Pierce on the floor togeter we can actually afford to rest Rondo without our offense dying completely (as it did last year when Rondo sat).

Miami's numbers look similar to Bostons, which shows why it's always been such a close fought battle.  Wade, Lebron and Chalmers are all capable of creating their own shot, while Bosh and Allen (their next best clutch scorers) both get 80%+ of their shots off assists.  In fact 91% of Allen's clutch baskets are assisted on - it's going to be interesting to see if Miami's best playmaker (Lebron) is going to be able to can Allen those open looks as effectively as Rondo has.
 
The Lakers clutch scoring doesn't look so strong here.  Kobe, Nash and Howard are clearly capable of creating their own shot (all < 50% of shots assisted), while Gasol is quite highly dependant on gettings assists - the addition of Nash may improve Gasol's game more then anyone else.  Their overall scoring production in the clutch is still very limited though compared to Boston and Miami, and when the game is on the line (especially if Howard gets in foul trouble) they might struggle to keep up with some of the higher scoring teams out there.

Rebounding has always been our weakness, but these stats show that at the end of games we rebound just as well as Miami does - obviously not as well as LA will. 

In fact come clutch time we beat Miami in every key statistical category.  Their only saving grace is Lebron, who ranks top 20 in the league in clutch scoring, rebounding and assists (though his shooting percentages in the clutch leave much to be desired).

The other interesting thing is that none of these statistics factor in Jeff Green, who was obviously) statistically non-existent last season.  In 10-11 he averaged 18.2 PP48 and 7.8 RP48, while shooting 46% (FG), 33% (3PT) and 89% (FT) in the clutch.  Those are very solid numbers and should get better this season with more familiarity with the team.

Thoughts?   

[indeedproceed]

My first thought is that the post is pretty awesome, so TP for that.

My second thought isnt a direct response to the OP, but it's this:

For the life of me I have no idea how the Cs manage to take down LA if in fact they manage anywhere near a best case scenario. No clue.

[lightspeed5]

sky's the limit with the best passer in the game passing to clutch jet.

[crimson_stallion]

My first thought is that the post is pretty awesome, so TP for that.

My second thought isnt a direct response to the OP, but it's this:

For the life of me I have no idea how the Cs manage to take down LA if in fact they manage anywhere near a best case scenario. No clue.

I would say...

Plan A: Try to get Howard in foul trouble
Howard is more foul prone then Bynum because he seems incapable of moving without throwing elbows, so we need to try to get into his head and get him frustrated so he spends much of his time on the bench. Luckilly both KG and Collins are very good at getting in other big's heads, so hopefully we'll have some success with this.  Sullinger is also a guy with a solid body who isn't afraid to bang inside, so he could potientially frustrate Howard a little. With Howard out the Laker's biggest strength (size) suddenly becomes a weakness, and with only Nash+Kobe+MWP+Gasol out there we are just as strong inside as they are.

Plan B: Exploit poor free throw shooting
If Howard proves to smart to get into foul trouble, we have one great benefit this year that we didn't have in years past - front court depth!  Garnett, Wilcox, Collins, Melo, Bass, Green and Sullinger all have 6 fouls to give - that's a total of 42 fouls to give from our frontcourt fellows.  Hack-a-Howard is quite possible without getting our own players too deep into foul trouble, and this may also get him frustrated (helping with plan A).  Worst case scenario Howard is a 45% free throw shooter, so if you send him to the line 20 times, he's lucky to come out with 10 points to show for it.

Plan C: Try to stretch the Defense
With KG playing at the 5 we have the ability to send KG out to 15-18 feet, along with Bass out at the 12-15 foot spot.  This would force both Howard and Gasol out of the paint because both of those guys are deadly from midrange.  This opens up the lane for penetration from guys like Terry, Rondo, Pierce, Bradley and Lee which gives Bass / Gasol two options - leave the lane open for an easy layup, or leave your defensive assignment (Bass / KG) to provide help defense.  Here we can again make use of plan A (Howard is likely to foul when running in to help), or we can kick it out to the now open big for an open midrange jumper.

Outside of San Antonio (Duncan and Bonner) there aren't many teams bar Boston with the type of big-man shooting we have, so that can create some nice mismatch opportunities [as above] against bigger teams like LAL.

Getting inside shouldn't be a big problem, becuase Rondo should have no trouble getting past Nash...and even if they put Kobe on Rondo, you then have Nash trying to defend Lee, Terry or Bradley - neither works in nash's favour! 

Off the bench Green vs Jamison would be a very nice matchup.

I think our two biggest rivalries (Mia and LA) are going to be more fun to watch this year then ever before

[crimson_stallion]

I actually think (for the below reasons) we fare much better against LA then Miami does.

Chalmers is not a huge offensive thread, and wouldn't give Nash absolute fits on defense the way Rondo would.

Kob is still one of the better perimeter defenders in the league and should have little trouble defending Wade, and MWP is one of the few perimeter defenders with the size, strenght and defensive skillset to limit Lebron's scoring.

Even if Wade or Lebron DOES get past their defender, Udonis Haslem is a minor offensive threat and Joel Anthony is zero threat.  Howard will have no problem leaving those guys to provide help defense inside and cut off the Lebron/Wade drive.     

Bosh is not the same calibre of defender as KG is, and would have his hands full trying to defend (and score against) Gasol.  Because of all the above, Bosh also won't get the assisted open looks he normally does against LA because the Lakers can defend Miami without double teams, so Gasol can stick to Bosh all day long defensively.

Looking at Miami's past, they are traditionally pretty weak once you take away the Lebron/Wade dribble penetration.  They then become a pure jump shooting team, so if you can make them take contested jump shots you're going to beat them more often then not. Look at what Boston did to Miami when they took away Wade's penetration in the playoffs last season - he was practically useless and their offense died immediately during those times.

I really think that pending possible injuries, Miami will get slaughtered if they play the Lakers.  For us, I think the depth and shooting ability of our bigs (and our ability to draw their bigs out of the paint) could be what gives us an advantage.

I think for us Kobe is going to be our toughest matchup problem.  We've traditionally defended Dwight pretty well, KG can handle Gasol, MWP is not a non-threat offensively and Rondo should be able to contain Nash as well as anyone.  Even with Bradley and Lee out there though, I think we'll have our hands full with Kobe.  Still if there is any 1-2 combo that can guard Kobe it's Bradley+Lee, so who knows!!

The flexibility of our team at every position I think makes us much stronger then we look at a glance. 

[SHAQATTACK]

All we need to hang #18 this year is health.   

The new improved Celtics is an out and out NBA wrecking squad of strenght and talent.

All I can say is Nash better feel 25 again and Howard's back better be is good shape , they are gonna need several boxes of Wheaties when they meet this years C's.

If they (Pierce and KG and Rondo ) can stay healthy , this team is potiential juggernaut thats gonna gather up speed and be a load on Miami /LA or anybody else for that matter.

We don't have just 4-7 players that can play , we can throw out around 14 players that can be relentless pressure on both sides of the ball. 

 

[Who]

I think Miami need to play small against LA to beat them.

If they go big (Bosh and a 2nd big man), I think the Lakers should win comfortably enough. That 2nd big allows LA to setup and maintain it's defensive integrity + allows Dwight Howard to roam in the paint off of Miami's secondary big man. That will limit Miami's dribble penetration, passing game and hence their spot-up shooting. The decline offensively would be huge.

However, if Miami go small (Bosh at center, LeBron at PF), I'd consider Miami the favourite.

Bosh is a nightmare matchup for Dwight Howard. Dwight has never been to defend him. Can't handle Bosh's face-up game one-on-one and providing rim-protection becomes a lot more difficult too. Bosh has some problems with Dwight but Bosh actually defends Dwight better than Dwight defends Bosh.

Pau Gasol cannot defend the perimeter. He won't be able to function on team defense while even covering a standstill shooter like Battier. It will also take him out of the paint and away from the defensive boards. Then Miami can force the matchups even more by bringing on Ray Allen for Shane Battier and forcing Pau to defend an actual scoring threat. Then it becomes very difficult to hide the defensive liability (in this situation) of Pau Gasol.

Miami playing big against LA improves their defense but they lose more offense than they gain defensively. They need to stay small and attack LA's weaknesses.

[Who]

For the life of me I have no idea how the Cs manage to take down LA if in fact they manage anywhere near a best case scenario. No clue.

Me either.

This Boston team is built to beat a team like Miami but the Lakers are just such a different type of team. Not sure the Celtics squad is versatile enough to handle them.

By that I mean, the big man rotation really, I am not sure there is enough quality there to give KG the assistance he needs to fight off both Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol. I think the Celtics would need a second strong big alongside Garnett to help Boston out there. To make the matchups more comfortable for Boston.

 

[Who]

Option 1 = go smaller with Jeff Green against Pau. Try to space out the floor even more + bring extra pace onto the court. Green did (somewhat) okay(ish) against Pau in the playoffs a few years ago. Not convinced Bass adds that much more defensively to go away from the advantages Green brings offensively.

The SG matchups against Kobe are uncomfortable. Doubtful Bradley can handle Kobe's post game. Terry most definitely cannot. Courtney Lee has the best size and defensive talent but he has struggled against Kobe too. Too weak physically. Maybe put Lee on Artest and Pierce on Kobe. Dare LA to run their offense through Ron Artest in the post. Jason Terry is then the best equipped to punish Nash's defense but it would force Rondo to defend Kobe which isn't ideal for more than short stretches. I don't know. Like I said, uncomfortable. Give Bradley the first crack at it in the regular season and see how he does. Hopefully, it won't be as problematic as I am imagining right now.

G: Rondo vs Kobe
G: Lee/Bradley/Terry vs Nash (LA to hide Nash off of Rondo)
F: Pierce vs Artest
F: Green vs Pau
C: Garnett vs Dwight

Option 2 = go big on the wings to force Kobe off of Rondo and to force Nash to defend Rondo. Consider using Jason Collins for 20mpg against Dwight and let KG handle Pau Gasol. Then switch KG back to Dwight and use Bass against Pau Gasol when Collins gets into foul trouble.

G: Rondo vs Nash
G: Pierce vs Kobe
F: Green vs Artest
F: Garnett/Bass vs Pau
C: Collins/Garnett vs Dwight

The offense would take a major hit with Collins out there and with Green at SF. A lot less shooting and floor spacing for Rondo to attack. A lot less speed in transition also. So they would be conceding a lot of offensive firepower for an improved defensive and rebounding backbone. Things would open up offensively once Collins comes out. And Boston's defense would have effectively stifled LA's offense to open the game. Set a tone (defensively) and disrupted LA's rhythm.

-------------------------------------

I think this is a matchup where Boston will really miss having Ray Allen. He defends Kobe better than any of Boston's (undersized) guards do while also being a considerable offensive threat.

I think Ray would've been a superior option to all of Boston's other guards.

[billysan]

Option 1 = go smaller with Jeff Green against Pau. Try to space out the floor even more + bring extra pace onto the court. Green did (somewhat) okay(ish) against Pau in the playoffs a few years ago. Not convinced Bass adds that much more defensively to go away from the advantages Green brings offensively.

The SG matchups against Kobe are uncomfortable. Doubtful Bradley can handle Kobe's post game. Terry most definitely cannot. Courtney Lee has the best size and defensive talent but he has struggled against Kobe too. Too weak physically. Maybe put Lee on Artest and Pierce on Kobe. Dare LA to run their offense through Ron Artest in the post. Jason Terry is then the best equipped to punish Nash's defense but it would force Rondo to defend Kobe which isn't ideal for more than short stretches. I don't know. Like I said, uncomfortable. Give Bradley the first crack at it in the regular season and see how he does. Hopefully, it won't be as problematic as I am imagining right now.

G: Rondo vs Kobe
G: Lee/Bradley/Terry vs Nash (LA to hide Nash off of Rondo)
F: Pierce vs Artest
F: Green vs Pau
C: Garnett vs Dwight

Option 2 = go big on the wings to force Kobe off of Rondo and to force Nash to defend Rondo. Consider using Jason Collins for 20mpg against Dwight and let KG handle Pau Gasol. Then switch KG back to Dwight and use Bass against Pau Gasol when Collins gets into foul trouble.

G: Rondo vs Nash
G: Pierce vs Kobe
F: Green vs Artest
F: Garnett/Bass vs Pau
C: Collins/Garnett vs Dwight

The offense would take a major hit with Collins out there and with Green at SF. A lot less shooting and floor spacing for Rondo to attack. A lot less speed in transition also. So they would be conceding a lot of offensive firepower for an improved defensive and rebounding backbone. Things would open up offensively once Collins comes out. And Boston's defense would have effectively stifled LA's offense to open the game. Set a tone (defensively) and disrupted LA's rhythm.

-------------------------------------

I think this is a matchup where Boston will really miss having Ray Allen. He defends Kobe better than any of Boston's (undersized) guards do while also being a considerable offensive threat.

I think Ray would've been a superior option to all of Boston's other guards.

I think there is another factor that would be significant with your first option. Use the matchups with Bass sharing time with Green and Collins/Wilcox spelling KG as needed. With Lee/Bradley, Rondo and Green, we run them out of the building. I am not convinced we cant do it and what will they do to counter? Bring in Jamison?

I know that Pierce and KG are not going to be able to run like the younger guys for long. OTOH can Gasol, Kobe and Nash keep up the pace we can set by going 8-9 deep on our bench? No reason ever that Green shouldnt beat Gasol down court every time. Rondo can out run Nash and Bradley or Lee can punish Kobe with their speed IMO.

I just think that tempo control with our depth and young legs will put the Lakers on their heels and out of breath. This will tilt the game in our favor and so what if we both score 120? That works to our advantage. No good reason to play half court with them whatsoever.

[SparzWizard]

Interesting points, very understandable for their starting lineup battle.

So what about the Lakers' bench? They do have a better bench now than the past few years I must admit. Who's going to be guarding Jodie Meeks, Antawn Jamison, Jordan Hill, and Steve Blake?

[indeedproceed]

Interesting points, very understandable for their starting lineup battle.

So what about the Lakers' bench? They do have a better bench now than the past few years I must admit. Who's going to be guarding Jodie Meeks, Antawn Jamison, Jordan Hill, and Steve Blake?

I think after you get past Gasol/Howard, we could take em. Their bench is okay, but far from elite.

But we really don't have an answer for them. Especially if the Steve Nash experiment works out.

[j804]

For the life of me I have no idea how the Cs manage to take down LA if in fact they manage anywhere near a best case scenario. No clue.

Me either.

This Boston team is built to beat a team like Miami but the Lakers are just such a different type of team. Not sure the Celtics squad is versatile enough to handle them.

By that I mean, the big man rotation really, I am not sure there is enough quality there to give KG the assistance he needs to fight off both Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol. I think the Celtics would need a second strong big alongside Garnett to help Boston out there. To make the matchups more comfortable for Boston.

That is why Danny has the BAE in his back pocket to pick up a guy like Kmart

[crimson_stallion]

Interesting points, very understandable for their starting lineup battle.

So what about the Lakers' bench? They do have a better bench now than the past few years I must admit. Who's going to be guarding Jodie Meeks, Antawn Jamison, Jordan Hill, and Steve Blake?

Courtney Lee can guard Meeks with ease, Sullinger and Wilcox should be able to handle Hill and Jamison and just about anybody with a heartbeat can defend Blake.

The question for me is moreso...who in LA is going to defend Terry and Green?

[Yogi]

We'll beat the Lakers the same way Oklahoma beat them last year.  Running.

Lakers who run:
Dwight Howard
Hill
Meeks
Kobe?
Nash?  (not on defense)
Peace?

Celtics who run:
Rondo
Bradley
Lee
Green
Wilcox
Bass
Melo
Terry?
Dooling?