CB Draft Western Semis: (2) Blazers vs. (3) Lakers

[Roy H.]

[jgod213]

Rotation:

PG: Rubio (38) / Udrih {8) / Belinelli (2)

SG: Johnson (38) / Belinelli (10)

SF: Chandler (35) / Barnes (9) / Johnson (4)

PF: Millsap (40) / Bonner (6) / Chandler (3)

C : Howard (43) / Hayes (5)

Offense:

Our Offensive gameplan will be very similar to what got the Blazers here in the first place.  Rubio in the P&R, Dwight in the post, and Joe Johnson off screens and cuts.

Extra emphasis will be on hammering the Lakers in the post with Dwight Howard via establishing paint position.  The Lakers are formidable up front, but they lack the overall height and overall size to keep Dwight Howard from physically asserting himself.

Howard will continue his trend outplaying both players when matched against eachother and will draw heavy fouls on whomever is called upon to bang with him.  WHEN doubled, the Blazers’ numerous other offensive weapons will be left with open jump shots and cuts to the lane.

The Blazers offense will scale back Joe Johnson iso’s to a degree and will focus more on getting Tony Allen caught up in screens as it’s the one part of his defensive game that he’s yet to master.

Defense:

The Blazers will match up at the bigs with Howard on Aldridge and Millsap on Horford.  Aldridge has never had much career success with Howard around, averaging only 14 points and 7 rebounds, while shooting only 46% from the field in their career head-to-heads. 

Millsap will give up some height to Horford, but he’s used to that.  Millsap will not be outworked or outrebounded by Horford, which is the essence of Horford’s offensive game.

The guard positions will also be held down effectively.  Joe Johnson won’t have his hands as Tony Allen will be providing little scoring.  Meanwhile, Ricky Rubio will be doing the job on Lowry as their 4 H2H matchups show. 

In 4 games against eachother, Lowry has averaged 17/8/5 on 44% shooting from the field and 23% from deep.  Meanwhile Rubio posted 14/11/4 shooting 45% and 31%.

That leaves the main threat as Rudy Gay.  Gay will get his no doubt, but with limited secondary options, the Lakers are going to have to hitch their advancement hopes on the idea that Rudy Gay can carry a team on his back to the finals.  I don’t believe he is ready for that type of responsibility.  His playoff line from last year doesn’t do him any favors.

Outcome:

While I’d expect this matchup to be a dogfight, with lots of fouls and some chippiness along the way, ultimately I favor the side that boasts an advantage for Dwight Howard and Joe Johnson over the side that must ride Rudy Gay.  Home court is huge in a series like this, and I think that advantage, mixed in with the rest, is just too much for the Lakers to overcome.

[KCattheStripe]

First off, the All-American Nice Guyz would like to commend Who on putting such a strong squad together. And now for JGod and his JBlazers.

Dear god would this series be awesome in real life. Trememndous inside-out play  orchestrated from mastery at the point. Athletic finishers on the wing making great offensive and defensive plays.

And I haven't even talked about Jgod's team yet.

But really, I think this series comes down to depth. Let's look at the starting line-ups:

Howard v. Horford:

Dwight's a beast, we're not gonna argue.

Aldridge v. Millsap:

I was surprised to see that Aldridge had owned this match-up as throughly as he has until I remembered that The Marcus is absurdly long and Millsap is undersized. I'd love to post a youtube video,  but grandpa Roy might threaten to kick us off his lawn so here's a ;ink to legitimate basketball stats:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=aldrila01&p2=millspa01

Rudy Gay v. Wilson Chandler:

Dear Rudy Gay haters,  Please stop. We get it, he's never going to be Clyde Drexler. and while that's disappointing he's still a great talent who has owned this match-up. MOAR STATS!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=gayru01&p2=chandwi01


...

I feel dirty.

Joe Johnson v. Tony Allen

I'm not sure you guys realize how much SO and I were sweating out TA dropping. We looked at a conference with JJ ( paired with Dwight) and Bron and were like " Oh dear God do we need the best perimeter defender according to a consensus of GMs in 2011" and then we got him and did this:




I"M SORRY ROY! PLEASE PUT THE SHOTGUN DOWN! I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT A "WHIPPERSNAPPER " IS!!!!!!

Anywho, since 2005, TA has held JJ to scoring under his averages on absolutely atrocious shooting.

Moar Linkage: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=johnsjo02&p2=allento01

Out dern spot!

Kyle Lowry v. Ricky Rubio

Rubio and Lowry played each other tight last year. We think it will be the same this year a Rubio's jump is delayed until his third year because of his injury and Lowry will actually have a team that's his to run.

"But KC, " You might say, " Those teams seem pretty even." And you'd be right annonymous Celtics blogger in my head, that is until you look at the bench.

Our first big off the bench is Nick Collison, his is Matt Bonner. With the frontcourt tandem of Aldridge/Horford all we have to do when he puts Bonner is switch whichever one of them needs a bit of a break on Bonner and have the other cover Howard/Millsap. Also, if Collison is in the game with LMA or Horford and Bonner is with D12/Millsap, with  Collison's defense we can still afford to hide our stars on Bonner to save their energy while D12/Millsap is still forced to cover our most talented Big.

At the back up wings, The Delfino/Jones/Brooks troika is far more potent defensively than the Barnes/Bellinelli duo.  Delfino's defense is excellent and when he subs in for Rudy we get an excellent shooter for those 8 minutes who can guard either JJ or Chandler while Barnes' defense isn't what it once was and his shooting isn't anywhere near as potent as Delfino's. Meanwhile Jones became the defensive stopper for the surprising Pacers' team this year, and we just need him to be our 2nd wing off the bench, but he does have the size to bother JJ when TA needs a rest and we gain extra floor spacing  because of Jones' shot, meanwhile Bellinelli is a sieve and I'd be surprised if JGod actually plays him in this match-up, which means more Matt Barnes, which we're kinda pumped about.


Devin Harris v. Beno Udrih Once more, Devin Harris v. Beno Udrih.

In a single game, JGod's team could make up these depth issues, but over a 7 game series, the grind will just be too much for his team.

All American Nice Guyz ( Lakers) in 7

[KCattheStripe]

IF Howard's on Aldridge, all that does is open driving lanes for Gay, TA and Lowry. Suddenly, TA has become a lot less of an offensive liability.

[jgod213]

IF Howard's on Aldridge, all that does is open driving lanes for Gay, TA and Lowry. Suddenly, TA has become a lot less of an offensive liability.

Yeah I considered that, but ultimately if I can chose to shut out Aldridge I'm going to do it.

Rubio has proven to be an effective defender against Lowry and I'm not concerned with TA taking over a game offensively.

I'm going to put this series on Rudy Gay and see what the voters have to say about it.

[dark_lord]

im picking the lakers (yuck, the second vote for lakers from me....i need a shower!)

[KCattheStripe]

IF Howard's on Aldridge, all that does is open driving lanes for Gay, TA and Lowry. Suddenly, TA has become a lot less of an offensive liability.

Yeah I considered that, but ultimately if I can chose to shut out Aldridge I'm going to do it.

Rubio has proven to be an effective defender against Lowry and I'm not concerned with TA taking over a game offensively.

I'm going to put this series on Rudy Gay and see what the voters have to say about it.

You know what I hate about head to head stats JGod, and I think we can both admit to this, given their teams I think we can assume Aldridge guarded Millsap and not Al Jeff and Horford , not J Smooth, guarded Dwight. But neither of us know if Horford and Millsap ever actually  played each other or if when they played Portland did Orlando put Dwight on aldrdge or Camby/Pryz.


I demand better stats from the internet!

[jgod213]

IF Howard's on Aldridge, all that does is open driving lanes for Gay, TA and Lowry. Suddenly, TA has become a lot less of an offensive liability.

Yeah I considered that, but ultimately if I can chose to shut out Aldridge I'm going to do it.

Rubio has proven to be an effective defender against Lowry and I'm not concerned with TA taking over a game offensively.

I'm going to put this series on Rudy Gay and see what the voters have to say about it.

You know what I hate about head to head stats JGod, and I think we can both admit to this, given their teams I think we can assume Aldridge guarded Millsap and not Al Jeff and Horford , not J Smooth, guarded Dwight. But neither of us know if Horford and Millsap ever actually  played each other or if when they played Portland did Orlando put Dwight on aldrdge or Camby/Pryz.


I demand better stats from the internet!

Yeah it's a hard big man matchup to compare head-to-head wise.  Millsap was a 6th man for some of those earlier matchups while Aldridge and Horford were jumping from PF to C and back.  Tough to get a handle on.

[Fafnir]

I'm trying to think how LA would be able to effectively attack Portlands team defense. Portland has a lot of strong defenders; Milsap/Rubio are both active about swiping the ball and Dwight is the best defender in the league.

[Who]

Aldridge is a tough matchup for Dwight Howard. Pulls him out of the paint and seriously decreases Dwight's impact as a team defender, rim protector and rebounder.

It's a pity Aldridge doesn't have a better face up game (like Bosh) because guys like Bosh cause Dwight Howard a lot of issues one-on-one defensively.

I'm not sure how much a choice Portland has though. Millsap is certainly too small to defend Aldridge in the post. Aldridge has had a lot of good moments against the Jazz (Millsap, Boozer and Okur too) over the last few years in the post.

Maybe double aggressively on Aldridge's post ups and concede jumpers to Horford and TA? That seems like the only viable alternative to sticking Dwight on Aldridge.

[KCattheStripe]

I'm trying to think how LA would be able to effectively attack Portlands team defense. Portland has a lot of strong defenders; Milsap/Rubio are both active about swiping the ball and Dwight is the best defender in the league.

I think both team's defense are tremendous. There's going to be a ton of fast break points in this series. However both Millsap and Rubio are a little trick or treat with their steals. Rubio gambles almost as much as Rondo and Millsap's steal begin to mitigate the damage other players do by scoring over him. Dwight's a concern, but less of one  than he'd be for other teams since both Aldridge and Horford  can pull him away from the basket.

[Donoghus]

This is a really good matchup.

[KCattheStripe]

This is a really good matchup.

Agreed.

[Who]

I think Aldridge plays tougher defense on Dwight Howard than Al Hoford does. Horford has been surprisingly bad at defending Dwight Howard in the past.

I imagine they'll end up having to switch back and forth a fair bit anyway. The cross-matches in transition + possible switches (big to big) in the pick and roll.

[KCattheStripe]

I imagine they'll end up having to switch back and forth a fair bit anyway. The cross-matches in transition + possible switches (big to big) in the pick and roll.

Agreed, JGod and I were talking about how there's no good numbers for how those cross matches would work but that they would be inevitable. When I did the line-up comparrison I just did who would be what in each team's offense.