2012 CB Draft Western Conference Playoffs: (1) Mavericks vs. (8) Nuggets

[StartOrien]

If he brings an argument, I'll listen to it -

But I got this series going 4-0, Mavs.

I played a few scenarios in my head, and a couple approaches Denver could use - I don't see a situation where they can steal a game. Just one man's opinion though.

[Roy H.]

For those who doubt whether Lebron James can defend PFs (which means, for those who didn't watch the NBA last year) here's Lebron on 7'0" Pau Gasol:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5v1zSSdba0U

Pau put up 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting.  That's incredible.  Maybe we'll send Lebron out there at center.

Seems like the Lakers were just about terrible at getting the ball to Gasol when Bron was fronting him. Just terrible.

Or, Lebron was amazing at ball denial. 

[StartOrien]

Or, Lebron was amazing at ball denial.

I watched about a minute of that video - I sit next to my supervisor so watching extended videos is kinda pushing it - but while Lebron's doing a great job I view it more as perpetuating what is wrong with Pau, more than anything else. He's flustered so easily by this, and doesn't seem to want to deal with the phsicality Lebron's playing with. Appears to be just going through the motions. 

[Roy H.]

Or, Lebron was amazing at ball denial.

I watched about a minute of that video - I sit next to my supervisor so watching extended videos is kinda pushing it - but while Lebron's doing a great job I view it more as perpetuating what is wrong with Pau, more than anything else. He's flustered so easily by this, and doesn't seem to want to deal with the phsicality Lebron's playing with. Appears to be just going through the motions.

It's not just Pau, though.  Lebron did the same thing against David West in the playoffs. 

[Kane3387]

Yeah I got Dallas as well, but I don't think KG gets swept. This team has some ability, but I got LeBron finishing this in 5.

[Edgar]

vote


We are kind of cute....

[GreenFaith1819]

I'm here - rather limited the last few days with time, unfortunately.

Here are some reasons why I truly believe my team (Denver) is being overlooked in this series with DAL:

CrotoNats ReUnited .. Be Scared!!(Coach - L. Bird / F. Vogel):
A. Varejao / R. Lopez / J. Anthony
Lebron / E. Brand
J. Green / M. Dunleavy / L. Kleiza
T. Sefolosha / B. Gordon
K. Irving / A. Brooks / K. Dooling

CelticsBlog Draft: Denver Nuggets: Coach Lionel Hollins
C - Kevin Garnett/Zaza Pachulia/Meyers Leonard
PF- Carlos Boozer/M. Speights/Andrew Nicholson
SF- Trevor Ariza/Kyle Korver/Chris Singleton
SG- O.J. Mayo/Gary Neal
PG- Mike Conley Jr./Nate Robinson/G. Neal

Just posted the rosters to get a better look at them.

I think what we have to be careful of as GMs in this format is "Real vs Fantasy."

LeBron James is the best player in the NBA - hands down, right now. But let's put some things in perspective in this fantasy format:

DAL (nor LeBron) doesn't have Chris Bosh to come to their rescue this time. LeBron doesn't have Dwayne Wade either. LeBron's number two in this format is the rookie of the year and a 2nd yr player - not Chris Bosh or Wade.

DAL is also relying on Jeff Green to be their primary SF, presumably. We are not even sure if Jeff Green will suit up for REAL BOS, much less DAL in this format. He is too much of a wildcard and unknown.

Anderson Varejao has played a grand total of 31 games (2010-11) and 26 games last season. In this fantasy format, you have to take into account the man's health. He is another wildcard for DAL and and unknown.

The last two reasons alone are why I ensured that I drafted four PROVEN, HEALTHY, vets to compete in this thing.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=brandel01&p2=garneke01

I think that DAL's primary Big in this fantasy draft will be Elton Brand. As we can see in the above link, KG wins this matchup rather easily.

Now as for KG vs LeBron - Yes - Lebron won that matchup in real life. BUT: In real life LeBron had Wade (And Bosh) to help him, and it really appeared as if BOS was going to win that series with MIA a few months ago - all the way until Chris Bosh returned and started hitting those threes from downtown. Chris Bosh also pulled KG out of the paint.

In THIS format, though - DAL has no Chris Bosh. Their HEALTHIEST, best TWO BIGS, handsdown, are Elton and LeBron. Elton, a few years ago - could defend KG and limit his production.

Not right now, though - as evidenced in BOS's series vs PHI.

I think that is a LOT of pressure to put on those two to defend against FOUR quality Bigs in a series.

As for Thabo, he played well for OKC in the regular seaosn, but didn't shoot well at all in the post season:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sefolth01.html

He's shooting 40 and 32% respectedly, from the field and from deep - AGAIN - putting a LOT of pressure on a 2nd yr player in Kyrie and LebRon James to score.

DEN? While I strongly believe that this series will be won in the PAINT vs DAL's bigs, our perimeter scoring and defense should be noted, too. Even in the event that Thabo plays well defensively vs either Conley or Mayo, that still leaves one of them free to do as they please.

Advantage? I'd say DEN. While we don't have LeBron, we DO have scoring from our ENTIRE starting five in this format - as well as our Bench.

And for those concerned about Boozer's production - I am sure he will play better with a healthy and reliable PG in Mike Conley, AND with a Future HOF Big Man in Kevin Garnett that will give him good looks and help him out on defense.

KG has made Perk, JO, Brandon Bass, Shaq, etc - ALL look good and effective while in Green. Carlos Boozer will be no different in this.

As Gary Neal can attest to the fact that Roy Hobbs inquired about his services several times that, too, is a plus for DEN.

Think on these things. With my limited time I probably won't get the opportunity to post again until later tonight, but I can see a full series here - with an upset for DEN.

Quite simply, DAL is asking too much out of wildcards in Jeff Green and Varejao, while depending on LeBron to be super BY HIMSELF - with no Wade or Bosh.

[KCattheStripe]

I'm here - rather limited the last few days with time, unfortunately.

Here are some reasons why I truly believe my team (Denver) is being overlooked in this series with DAL:

CrotoNats ReUnited .. Be Scared!!(Coach - L. Bird / F. Vogel):
A. Varejao / R. Lopez / J. Anthony
Lebron / E. Brand
J. Green / M. Dunleavy / L. Kleiza
T. Sefolosha / B. Gordon
K. Irving / A. Brooks / K. Dooling

I LOVE IT! His reason for voting for the Nuggets is the Mavs starting line-up! Smack talk like that will earn you my vote, sir!

[GreenFaith1819]

I'm here - rather limited the last few days with time, unfortunately.

Here are some reasons why I truly believe my team (Denver) is being overlooked in this series with DAL:

CrotoNats ReUnited .. Be Scared!!(Coach - L. Bird / F. Vogel):
A. Varejao / R. Lopez / J. Anthony
Lebron / E. Brand
J. Green / M. Dunleavy / L. Kleiza
T. Sefolosha / B. Gordon
K. Irving / A. Brooks / K. Dooling

I LOVE IT! His reason for voting for the Nuggets is the Mavs starting line-up! Smack talk like that will earn you my vote, sir!

lol...read it NOW, though. I edited my post

[Roy H.]

I'm here - rather limited the last few days with time, unfortunately.

Here are some reasons why I truly believe my team (Denver) is being overlooked in this series with DAL:

CrotoNats ReUnited .. Be Scared!!(Coach - L. Bird / F. Vogel):
A. Varejao / R. Lopez / J. Anthony
Lebron / E. Brand
J. Green / M. Dunleavy / L. Kleiza
T. Sefolosha / B. Gordon
K. Irving / A. Brooks / K. Dooling

CelticsBlog Draft: Denver Nuggets: Coach Lionel Hollins
C - Kevin Garnett/Zaza Pachulia/Meyers Leonard
PF- Carlos Boozer/M. Speights/Andrew Nicholson
SF- Trevor Ariza/Kyle Korver/Chris Singleton
SG- O.J. Mayo/Gary Neal
PG- Mike Conley Jr./Nate Robinson/G. Neal

Just posted the rosters to get a better look at them.

I think what we have to be careful of as GMs in this format is "Real vs Fantasy."

LeBron James is the best player in the NBA - hands down, right now. But let's put some things in perspective in this fantasy format:

DAL (nor LeBron) doesn't have Chris Bosh to come to their rescue this time. LeBron doesn't have Dwayne Wade either. LeBron's number two in this format is the rookie of the year and a 2nd yr player - not Chris Bosh or Wade.

Elton Brand is a much better defender than Chris "Ru Paul" Bosh, and is a more efficient jump shooter, as well.  He'll give our team at least 90% of what Bosh did.

Similarly, while Kyrie Irving isn't quite as good as Wade yet, he's going to significantly close the gap next season, as he improves and Wade declines.  Plus, Kyrie is arguably a better fit next to Lebron, as he's a much better outside shooter.

DAL is also relying on Jeff Green to be their primary SF, presumably. We are not even sure if Jeff Green will suit up for REAL BOS, much less DAL in this format. He is too much of a wildcard and unknown.

Despite the conspiracy theories you read on CelticsBlog, Green is playing next season.  He's participating in pickup games, is working out regularly, and has been introduced as a member of the team.  If these are the straws you're grasping at, you have no shot.

The CrotoNats have the best SF depth in the CB-NBA, in Lebron, Green, Dunleavy (11th most efficient player in the league last year), and Kleiza (#1 post defender in the NBA, all-around good player).

Anderson Varejao has played a grand total of 31 games (2010-11) and 26 games last season. In this fantasy format, you have to take into account the man's health. He is another wildcard for DAL and and unknown.

Can you cite an example of an NBA player who missed significant time with a recurring wrist injury?  Varejao looked fantastic in the Olympics.

The last two reasons alone are why I ensured that I drafted four PROVEN, HEALTHY, vets to compete in this thing.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=brandel01&p2=garneke01

I think that DAL's primary Big in this fantasy draft will be Elton Brand. As we can see in the above link, KG wins this matchup rather easily.

In the last three games of the Philly vs. Boston playoff series, Brand averaged 16 points on 58% shooting, despite still nursing a strained neck.  KG averaged 44% shooting in those games.

Now as for KG vs LeBron - Yes - Lebron won that matchup in real life. BUT: In real life LeBron had Wade (And Bosh) to help him, and it really appeared as if BOS was going to win that series with MIA a few months ago - all the way until Chris Bosh returned and started hitting those threes from downtown. Chris Bosh also pulled KG out of the paint.

Brand will also pull KG out of the paint, if you're intending to defend him like Chris Bosh.  Plus, anyone who watched that series knows that Lebron carried his team.  KG can't defend him, and Boozer certainly can't, either.

In THIS format, though - DAL has no Chris Bosh. Their HEALTHIEST, best TWO BIGS, handsdown, are Elton and LeBron. Elton, a few years ago - could defend KG and limit his production.

Not right now, though - as evidenced in BOS's series vs PHI.

Not true.

I think that is a LOT of pressure to put on those two to defend against FOUR quality Bigs in a series.

I'll take Varejao, Lebron, Brand, Lopez, Anthony, Green, and Kleiza over any big man rotation you throw out there.

As for Thabo, he played well for OKC in the regular seaosn, but didn't shoot well at all in the post season:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sefolth01.html

He's shooting 40 and 32% respectedly, from the field and from deep - AGAIN - putting a LOT of pressure on a 2nd yr player in Kyrie and LebRon James to score.

Thabo played amazing defense in the playoffs, against Tony Parker, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, and even Lebron.  His offense is a bonus.

We've got plenty of scoring punch, though, between Lebron, Kyrie, Green, Brand, Varejao, Ben Gordon, etc., etc. 

DEN? While I strongly believe that this series will be won in the PAINT vs DAL's bigs, our perimeter scoring and defense should be noted, too. Even in the event that Thabo plays well defensively vs either Conley or Mayo, that still leaves one of them free to do as they please.

Conley and Mayo sucked in real life, they'll suck in this format, as well.

Advantage? I'd say DEN. While we don't have LeBron, we DO have scoring from our ENTIRE starting five in this format - as well as our Bench.

If all we cared about was scoring, we'd run out a Brand/Lebron/Green(or Dunleavy)/Gordon/Irving lineup.  That's by far the best scoring, most efficient scoring lineup in this exercise.  The CrotoNats can match up with any style.

And for those concerned about Boozer's production - I am sure he will play better with a healthy and reliable PG in Mike Conley, AND with a Future HOF Big Man in Kevin Garnett that will give him good looks and help him out on defense.

Boozer hasn't looked good with Derrick Rose feeding him the ball, playing beside Joakim Noah.  Adding Garnett and Conley isn't going to help all that much.

KG has made Perk, JO, Brandon Bass, Shaq, etc - ALL look good and effective while in Green. Carlos Boozer will be no different in this.

Those guys all tried.  Boozer...  doesn't.

As Gary Neal can attest to the fact that Roy Hobbs inquired about his services several times that, too, is a plus for DEN.

Did I offer Tyler Zeller?

Think on these things. With my limited time I probably won't get the opportunity to post again until later tonight, but I can see a full series here - with an upset for DEN.

Quite simply, DAL is asking too much out of wildcards in Jeff Green and Varejao, while depending on LeBron to be super BY HIMSELF - with no Wade or Bosh.

Wild card this. 

[Roy H.]

I mean, seriously, the kid is just that good.  Irving has handles like Iverson / Tim Hardaway.  It's really impressive to watch.  Plus, he's an amazingly efficient player, and he was the most clutch player in the entire NBA last year.

[KCattheStripe]

I mean, seriously, the kid is just that good.  Irving has handles like Iverson / Tim Hardaway.  It's really impressive to watch.  Plus, he's an amazingly efficient player, and he was the most clutch player in the entire NBA last year.

Roy Hobbs: One liners and memes are the decline of the Celticsblog draft as we know it. But .GIFs man, those things are legit.

[StartOrien]

That was a great post GF

[Roy H.]

I mean, seriously, the kid is just that good.  Irving has handles like Iverson / Tim Hardaway.  It's really impressive to watch.  Plus, he's an amazingly efficient player, and he was the most clutch player in the entire NBA last year.

Roy Hobbs: One liners and memes are the decline of the Celticsblog draft as we know it. But .GIFs man, those things are legit.

Gifs showing off a players basketball skills against other elite players?  Is discussing basketball off limits now, too?

[Kane3387]

Denver,

What is your strategy for defending LeBron

Dallas,

What is your strategy for defending KG?