Christmas and/or Joseph: will they play for the Red Claws?

[Professor of Rondology]

First off: sorry for the super-long post.  I was bored at work and didn't want to leave anything out.  Please offer critiques, alternative viewpoints, or point out things I forgot.  Or you can just find a thread with a shorter OP.

I think that both players have a very good chance of becoming decent NBA players.  However, I'm not sure that either will be able to contribute this year.  Despite our roster being deeper than years past, we are still only an injury away from relying on our 14 and 15th men.  So do we take a flyer on the kids or do we try and sign a vet, like Quisy.  Many factors complicate the decision.

Christmas' success at every level of basketball- especially his play overseas- coupled with his maturity and work ethic (both were on display this summer), will get him far in this league.  Until he gets NBA minutes we won't know for certain, but I think he will flourish when given the opportunity.  Unfortunately, the 2012-13 Celtics will not represent that type of opportunity unless our roster is depleted by injuries.  Christmas needs consistent minutes to thrive, and we- if all goes right- won't be able to give him them.  Now, there is a chance that all Dionte needs is a tiny window to show that he is an NBA player already- and training camp might prove this to be true.  He might even be ready to contribute 10 solid mpg this season, none of us know.  More likely, however, he will need some time to develop.

Joseph is a guy I could see fitting in very well with Rondo, Bradley, Jeff Green, Sully and the next generation Celtics.  Unfortunately, his main skill from college- scoring- is something that we do not need at all this year.  If he is going to earn minutes it will be by doing the "little things."  Hopefully this will force him to hone his all-around game and will make him a better player 2-3 years down the road.  However, we all know how that situation worked out for JJJ.  And I think most of us would agree that KJ is not ready for a role on a contending NBA team.

Now, the real reason for this post is not just to talk about why I think these guys will be good NBA players.  The reason is that I'm not sure that we have room for both of them on the roster this year.  As it stands, our roster looks like this:
RR, KD
Lee, Jet,AB
PP, JG
BB, JS
KG, CW, JC, FM
Pretty thin at the 1-3 spots.  If PP's knee becomes an issue then we have Lee as the starting SG AND as our only back-up SF.  Right now (and as long as AB is out) we're one injury away from having our 14 and 15th men become part of the everyday rotation.  Now, do we really want Dionte Christmas or Kris Joseph becoming part of the everyday rotation?  Or would we rather use one of those spots on a player like Marquis Daniels, who we know can fill a larger role when called upon?  I have a feeling that Christmas is a player, but do we want to be forced to rely on him for long stretches?

Unfortunately, signing a veteran backup guard/swingman might mean letting either Christmas or Joseph slip away.  This is something I would prefer to not see happen. So, my question to CB is this: which player could you see playing for a year with the Red Claws? I would LOVE to see both Christmas and Joseph remain with the Celtics organization, but I don't think Christmas would like being sent down the D-League, and he might walk if he doesn't make the C's roster. I also think that Christmas has a much better chance of contributing this year than Joseph.  His game is more NBA ready and his maturity is apparent.  My hope is that we use our last 2 roster spots on Marquis Daniels and Dionte Christmas, and we send KJ up to Maine for the year.

This was a long, rambling post, and I apologize.  I just wanted to get a feel for whether or not KJ/Christmas would be willing to spend a year in the D-League.  Does the fact that we drafted KJ make it easier for us to send him to Maine, or is that a moot point?

[wdleehi]

Both will.


But I wouldn't be surprised if one of them is not on the 15 man roster but the last player waived.

[Jon]

Assuming both make the team, I think it's very likely that they spend a lot of time there.  When this team is healthy, I really can't see a need to have either of those guys on the active roster. 

I see the active roster as

Rondo
Bradley
Pierce
Bass
Garnett

Green
Terry
Lee
Sullinger
Wilcox
Collins
Dooling

Obviously since Bradley is out, one of them clearly has a shot at being in uniform on opening night. 

[saltlover]

If Christmas makes the team, I could seem him spending most of the season in Boston.  He's got a couple years of D-League and international experience, so he probably won't gain much more from playing in Portland than he would being the last man off the bench and playing in practices.

Joseph, on the other hand, I would expect in Portland all year unless injuries create a necessary spot.

[Professor of Rondology]

Assuming both make the team, I think it's very likely that they spend a lot of time there.  When this team is healthy, I really can't see a need to have either of those guys on the active roster. 

I agree.  When healthy, the 8-man rotation is set in stone and the 12-man active roster will only see a change if something really unexpected happens (like Delfino taking the vet min). 
But we already are missing a player from the 8 man rotation in Avery Bradley. In addition, Paul Pierce's knees are far from 100%, KG is always a risk for injury, and JG's heart still makes me nervous.  If any of those 3 players go down while AB is still on the mend, we would be put in a very difficult spot. 
Because regardless of which of those 3 players goes down, we would be leaning on Christmas and Joseph to fill the primary back-up SG or SF role.  It wouldn't be the end of the world to have to do this for a short time, but if it's an extended period we would be in a bind.

Btw, if any of you want to feel better about the JG deal just pretend that Pierce and/or KG gets hurt and misses a few weeks and look at the roster w/o them. The flexibility that JG provides is just amazing.  Having him on the bench is the best injury-insurance Danny could have bought. 

If Christmas makes the team, I could seem him spending most of the season in Boston.  He's got a couple years of D-League and international experience, so he probably won't gain much more from playing in Portland than he would being the last man off the bench and playing in practices.

Joseph, on the other hand, I would expect in Portland all year unless injuries create a necessary spot.

I think that's an accurate assessment. Which is also why I think Christmas might just have a better shot at making the team than Joseph- he's more likely to be able to contribute this year.  I know that many people use the "we only just drafted him, why wouldn't he make the team?" argument, but to me that is irrelevant.  If Christmas proves in camp that he's the better player, it won't matter to Doc or Danny that we drafted Joseph.

[hwangjini_1]

the celtics, and other nba teams, can only have 12 active players for a game, correct?

barring injuries, that means those 3 celtics not activated will necessarily either:

1. wear a suit and look stylish while cheering team mates on from the bench.

or...

2. dress up in baggy shorts and a shirt with a lobster on front but not be dining at Red Lobster restaurant.

to me, it makes sense for both of them to get more minutes in the D league than sit with a suit on. the only other credible reason i can think of for joseph or christmas to stay in boston is to complete teams for scrimages and practices.

[Professor of Rondology]

to me, it makes sense for both of them to get more minutes in the D league than sit with a suit on. the only other credible reason i can think of for joseph or christmas to stay in boston is to complete teams for scrimages and practices.

My only problem with this is that when someone gets hurt (when, not if) we might be caught between a rock and a hard place if KJ and Christmas are playing in Maine and we only have 12 players practicing with the Celtics.  If someone goes down early in the year, when AB is still out, we WILL have to reach all the way to the end of the 15-man roster to fill the void. 
There are only 4 guards on the current 12-man roster- if one goes down, we need to have a replacement. I'm not sure I'm comfortable calling someone up from Maine to be part of the rotation in Boston.  I'd rather have the injury-insurance on hand, practicing with the Celtics, learning the Celtics sets and rotations, so that when he is called upon he can actually provide something.

[Celts Fan 92]

i think both make da team but joseph gon be in da D League for some stints during da year. Christmas can contribute asap its no need to bring in Quis so let it go yall lol

[saltlover]

the celtics, and other nba teams, can only have 12 active players for a game, correct?

That is incorrect.  The active roster is 13 now.  They changed it for last season only, but then in the middle of the season, the league rules committee decided that the change should be permanent.  Accordingly, that is why I feel that, when everyone is healthy, Joseph and Melo will be in Portland and Christmas will be in Boston.

[saltlover]

If Christmas makes the team, I could seem him spending most of the season in Boston.  He's got a couple years of D-League and international experience, so he probably won't gain much more from playing in Portland than he would being the last man off the bench and playing in practices.

Joseph, on the other hand, I would expect in Portland all year unless injuries create a necessary spot.

I think that's an accurate assessment. Which is also why I think Christmas might just have a better shot at making the team than Joseph- he's more likely to be able to contribute this year.  I know that many people use the "we only just drafted him, why wouldn't he make the team?" argument, but to me that is irrelevant.  If Christmas proves in camp that he's the better player, it won't matter to Doc or Danny that we drafted Joseph.

Without adding another veteran, which it seems less likely by the day will happen, it would be a surprise if both didn't make the team.  If a vet is added, I think that his position could be as much of a deciding factor as to who makes the team between Christmas and Joseph.  If the vet is a pure 2, then Joseph would have the inside edge, since he plays the 2/3.  If the vet is a bit more of a swing/3, then Christmas' odds increase somewhat.

I also, however, think that trade value will factor into the decision, if the two of them are fighting for the last spot.  And, Joseph, being a recent draft pick, has more trade value than Christmas, who wasn't drafted and has bounced around for a couple years.  Only marginally more, perhaps, but enough that I think Christmas will have to significantly outplay Joseph in camp to beat him out for a final roster spot, and Joseph will get in if it's close.

[Professor of Rondology]

Without adding another veteran, which it seems less likely by the day will happen, it would be a surprise if both didn't make the team.  If a vet is added, I think that his position could be as much of a deciding factor as to who makes the team between Christmas and Joseph.  If the vet is a pure 2, then Joseph would have the inside edge, since he plays the 2/3.  If the vet is a bit more of a swing/3, then Christmas' odds increase somewhat.

I also, however, think that trade value will factor into the decision, if the two of them are fighting for the last spot.  And, Joseph, being a recent draft pick, has more trade value than Christmas, who wasn't drafted and has bounced around for a couple years.  Only marginally more, perhaps, but enough that I think Christmas will have to significantly outplay Joseph in camp to beat him out for a final roster spot, and Joseph will get in if it's close.

I agree with the first paragraph, the tricky part is if the vet we sign is Marquis, or a similar 2/3 combo.

The trade-value comment is an interesting one, and one I hadn't thought of.  But I'm not sure that Joseph's trade-value is significantly higher than Christmas', so I don't think that will be an important factor.  Besides, how they both play this year (in training camp, practice, in the d-league, and in NBA games) will ultimately be what determines their trade-value for other teams.  That being said, I have no idea what the trade-value is for either player, so there could be a lot of interest in Joseph around the league and none for Christmas.  I don't think that's the case though.

[saltlover]

Without adding another veteran, which it seems less likely by the day will happen, it would be a surprise if both didn't make the team.  If a vet is added, I think that his position could be as much of a deciding factor as to who makes the team between Christmas and Joseph.  If the vet is a pure 2, then Joseph would have the inside edge, since he plays the 2/3.  If the vet is a bit more of a swing/3, then Christmas' odds increase somewhat.

I also, however, think that trade value will factor into the decision, if the two of them are fighting for the last spot.  And, Joseph, being a recent draft pick, has more trade value than Christmas, who wasn't drafted and has bounced around for a couple years.  Only marginally more, perhaps, but enough that I think Christmas will have to significantly outplay Joseph in camp to beat him out for a final roster spot, and Joseph will get in if it's close.

I agree with the first paragraph, the tricky part is if the vet we sign is Marquis, or a similar 2/3 combo.

The trade-value comment is an interesting one, and one I hadn't thought of.  But I'm not sure that Joseph's trade-value is significantly higher than Christmas', so I don't think that will be an important factor.  Besides, how they both play this year (in training camp, practice, in the d-league, and in NBA games) will ultimately be what determines their trade-value for other teams.  That being said, I have no idea what the trade-value is for either player, so there could be a lot of interest in Joseph around the league and none for Christmas.  I don't think that's the case though.

The only reason I think that there is more trade value for Joseph than Christmas is that Christmas has been an unrestricted free agent for three years, and no team has brought him in during the regular season.  That doesn't mean he can't be worth something someday, but up until this point, he's had exactly zero trade value.  It's unlikely that training camp will change that, particularly as practices will be as informative as any exhibition games, and only the Celtics will have information on his practice.  Joseph, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick.  Now it's possible that the Celtics were the only team who was going to pick him, but he appeared on various mock drafts, so his value seems accurate as late second-rounder.  Mind you, that's not a huge amount of value, but it is more than Dionte Christmas has currently, and is likely to get before the trade deadline (barring, of course, a Jeremy Lin-esque explosion, in which case, why are we trading him?)

Point is, if the C's don't think either player is going to be a valuable piece this season, Joseph will have more in-season trade value than Christmas, or at least would be projected to as of late October when such decisions must be made.  Accordingly, Christmas only beats out Joseph for the last spot if he looks so good in camp that the Celtics have no question he is immediately ready to help the team.

Also, I think this is largely moot, as I feel that both will make the team, with Smith having a small chance to beat out Christmas.

[fairweatherfan]

Don't forget that the NBA has made 13-player active rosters permanent:

http://www.insidehoops.com/blog/?p=9314/

So we don't need to cut it to 12, just 13.

Assuming no new FA pickups, I'm guessing our Day 1 roster will be:

Rondo, Dooling
Lee, Jet, XMas
Pierce, Green
KG, Bass
Sullinger, Wilcox, Collins, Melo

with Bradley injured and Joseph inactive (and sent to Maine when the D-League starts, which is probably a little later). 

Melo's almost certainly not ready to contribute but I think Doc and Danny may want him around the team culture and getting a few garbage minutes for as long as possible.  XMas will be active over Joseph because he's more experienced and gives us a 5th guard, with Lee serving as the emergency 3.

[LooseCannon]

I also, however, think that trade value will factor into the decision, if the two of them are fighting for the last spot.

Trade value for players such as these mainly has to do with whether or not they can be included in a trade, then immediately cut without the other team having to pay anything.  Any other value will be based on what they demonstrate during the actual season.

[2short]

If Joseph can prove he can play nba defense he'll have to get the nod.  We are going into the season with PP coming off a knee injury and JG coming off heart surgery.  Granted those 2 guys healthy give us an incredible 1 2 punch at sf position but after them we don't have a sf on the roster.  Joseph is a 6'7" guy who is athletic and can score.  Granted when he's on the court he'd be asked to play good defense, rebound and run the floor.  Any incidental offense besides filling a lane would be a bonus as I'd expect him to 5th option.
Our backcourt is sooo stacked, unless Lee gets minutes at small sf where does Christmas fit in, rondo, bradley, lee, terry, dooling - he isn't going to take minutes from any one there