2012 - CB Draft: "How's My Team Look?"

[Who]

Dwayne Wade is one of the four best players in all of basketball. Unless you are getting one of the other three guys (Dwight, Durant, LeBron), Wade should be untouchable.

Also, I'd argue Who is letting Wade coast on his reputation and second championship ring. Wade’s PPP this season was 0.96 good for 96th best in the league, his defense is declining, and he's getting to the line far less (6.1 FTA per game is the worst mark of his career since his rookie year), his 4.8 OWS ranks him 21st in the league, his 2.9 DWS ranks 27th, he's a below average three point shooter (.268 3PT%). His 7.7 WS is the third lowest mark of his career. Don't get me wrong Wade is a top tier player, but that tier is top 15 not top 4. In fact, I'd be curious to know if Wade ranked top 4 by any measure last season.

Wade's statistics would be better if he wasn't playing with LeBron. More opportunities.

Judging Wade by numbers isn't doing him justice.

[indeedproceed]

The waggle has pretty much nailed my opinion on Lin. I think expecting a 23 year old pg to become ordinary as a starter when he very clearly was not during the previous season to be just confounding. Guys become better shooters, better defenders, learn to take care of the ball better, get more acclimated to the game. Considering what Lin was able to do in a very tumultuous and trying situation in NY, I don't get why he shouldnt to be able to not only replicate it in a more stable situation with a much better and healthier lockerroom, but improve upon it.

[Who]

Jeremy Lin is not only a very poor starter ... but he will likely end up being a below average backup PG too (in this 24 team league that looks absolutely loaded at the PG position).

Lin's going to be a divisive player. But worth noting that Knicks third most successful lineup (+20) featured Lin, Anthony and Stoudemire. And we have to be careful of how we define "plummeted" (something in the neighborhood of 15/6/3) and whether that's an inditement of Lin or Melo.

Correlation does not equal causation.

They weren't winning because of Lin. They were because they canned Mike D'Antoni and replaced him with the defensive minded coach (Mike Woodson) that that roster was crying out for. And they had a big run because of it.

Lin was just along for the ride. Not driving the car.

[Who]

I am a very big fan of Lin but he has a restricted game that is only effective in certain circumstances and when you alter those situations, his value drops hugely.

And by big fan, I mean that ... I had Lin pegged as a late 2nd round to third round pick in this year's CB draft. I really really like him. I think he can add a lot of value to someone (that is desperate for offense and will let him do his thing). 

I think he is a really good basketball player but his game isn't well rounded and when you don't let him play to his strengths, his game drops off. He becomes a high level backup to low level starter.

In a league like this (24 teams), that is more like an average backup PG. And with a team that is as loaded with high usage players offensively who are each more effective than Lin, he could drop even further.

[Kane3387]

Dwayne Wade is one of the four best players in all of basketball. Unless you are getting one of the other three guys (Dwight, Durant, LeBron), Wade should be untouchable.

Also, I'd argue Who is letting Wade coast on his reputation and second championship ring. Wade’s PPP this season was 0.96 good for 96th best in the league, his defense is declining, and he's getting to the line far less (6.1 FTA per game is the worst mark of his career since his rookie year), his 4.8 OWS ranks him 21st in the league, his 2.9 DWS ranks 27th, he's a below average three point shooter (.268 3PT%). His 7.7 WS is the third lowest mark of his career. Don't get me wrong Wade is a top tier player, but that tier is top 15 not top 4. In fact, I'd be curious to know if Wade ranked top 4 by any measure last season.

Wade's statistics would be better if he wasn't playing with LeBron. More opportunities.

Judging Wade by numbers isn't doing him justice.

I will take CP3 over Wade any day.

[The Walker Wiggle]

I think he is a really good basketball player but his game isn't well rounded and when you don't let him play to his strengths, his game drops off. He becomes a high level backup to low level starter.

This I can agree with. And I'm by no means penciling in Lin as a top 10 point guard. But he does a few things that I value a lot. For instance he actually got to the line at a higher rate than Wade (and without Stern's star treatment).

[The Walker Wiggle]

Okc thunder

Pg: Chauncey Billups
Sg: monta Ellis/ Courtney lee
Sf: Caron butler
Pf: serge Ibaka / Andrea bargnani
 C: Marc gasol/ Chris kaman

Thoughts after griffin trade?

I didn't like the Griffin trade much at all. Yes your bench is much stronger, but at the loss of your best player and only franchise talent.

I do like the fit of Billups next to Monta. They compliment each other offensively, with Billups hanging around behind the arc and Monta - ideally - looking to get at the rim and to the line. And Chauncey is big enough to guard the two if necessary. However you still need to shore up the pg position. Billups is thirty-six, just five months removed from achilles surgery, and still isn't running at full speed. And without him, the starting five suffers from a lack of shooting. The team can't afford the volume of long twos that Ellis and Butler are going to miss.

And, okay, I am a fan of the Spanish front line. Gasol and Ibaka may be the best PF/C tandem in the league. Far less potent offensively than Griffin and Gasol would've been, but better defensively. And Bargnani is an interesting match up problem for opposing teams slotted in at either the 4 or 5 as a floor spacer. Kaman mostly goes to waste as the team's fourth big man, a role we know he's not interested in. (New Orleans had to send him home at one point last season.)

[The Walker Wiggle]

The Dubs

SG Manu Ginobili
SG Klay Thompson
Point Forward Andre Iguodala
PF Anthony Davis
C Channing Frye

Golden State coach Jerry Sloan runs his flex offense through Iguodala, with staggered screens galore for Klay Thompson. (Fun Fact 1: Thompson ranks in the top 10 among all NBA players in screen play efficiency.) and off the ball cuts by Anthony Davis. (Fun Fact 2: Last year, in cut situations, Davis posted a PPP of 1.51, placing him in the top 4% of all college players, on a ridiculous 82.7% shooting.) Channing Frye gets his off pin downs and pick and pops, and is just generally a pain for opposing centers to guard.

What about Manu you ask?

Manu Ginobili is among the top-20 most efficient NBA players spotting-up, isolating, and shooting off screens, showing the whole arsenal.

[indeedproceed]

Pretty typical Walker Wiggle team. High pick the was controversial but ripe with 'I told you so' potential? Check. Using players in unorthodox positions, in an attempt to maximize mismatches, even though he knows he will get hit for it come voting? Check. A center nobody feels good about but there is a bounty of evidence that he'll be able to do what he says he can? Check.

Gimme something better than Channing Frye and I'm on board for a playoffs birth.

[indeedproceed]

Also Manu Ginobli had no business getting picked so late in the second.

[action781]

PG: Jeremy Lin, Jarret Jack
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF: Paul Pierce
PF: Chris Bosh/Kenneth Faried
C: Emeka Okafor/Brendan Haywood

Question 1: Should I start Kenneth Faried/Bosh? The numbers say so, but is it in the best interests of the team?

I don't think Faried is a starter caliber player in the NBA yet. He is clearly a phenomenal rebounder and overall possession creator but I don't think he adds enough as a defender or as an offensive player.

Chris Bosh is a matchup nightmare at the center position but you'll lose that increase in offensive potency by putting Faried alongside him because Faried cannot make a shot outside of the paint so teams will hide their centers on him and leave their quicker big man defender on Bosh.

You will also negate the strength of your 1-2 punch at center of Okafor and Haywood by starting Bosh at center. Harder to get them the minutes they deserve.

I love Chris Bosh as a starting center but I wouldn't do in this circumstance. I don't think it makes best use of the personnel you have.

Okafor should absolutely start at C.  He was easily a top 5 center in the East two seasons ago when he had a decent supporting cast around him and you have that now.  Very good defender, rebounder, and isn't a liability on offense.  Who is right that playing Bosh at C will take away deserved minutes from Okafor and Haywood, plus Bosh will be less effective at the C position with Faried on the floor with him.

[action781]

Question 2: How many minutes should Jeremy Lin play? How many with the starters?

Jeremy Lin should be nowhere near the starting lineup.

He has one chief value as a player and that is as a high usage creator offensively with mediocre efficiency. For a team desperate for offense, you start Lin and let him do his thing ... he'll improve your team.

For a team with an MVP caliber wing in Dwayne Wade and a pair of top 20 players in Paul Pierce and Chris Bosh ... each of whom who are highly talented offensive players ... it makes absolutely zero sense to take possessions away from them to give them to Lin.

Lin has proven himself incapable of functioning as a reasonable level in a smaller role in New York. When he is dominating the ball, he is electric. When he has to share it with Amare and Melo, his production and impact plummeted. The value he has alongside such talented teammates is minimal.

Jeremy Lin is not only a very poor starter ... but he will likely end up being a below average backup PG too (in this 24 team league that looks absolutely loaded at the PG position).

I would be trying to draft to compete with Jeremy Lin for those backup PG minutes.

I just don't like Lin on this team at all.  I think Lin would be most effective on a team that he runs the show (proved that this season).  Wade has shown that he is absolutely not his most effective when playing off the ball.  It's not a good mix.

Lin is indeed going to be a divisive player.  I think he'd be best on a team with players that can play without the ball.  Surrounded by players like Ray, Pierce, KG, Wilson Chandler, Gallinari, Kevin Love are where I think Lin could be effective.

I just don't like him on this team at all.  If you like the idea of Bosh playing some C, I'd try to trade Lin + Haywood for a better fit PG + lesser C or stretch 4.

[action781]

Dwayne Wade is one of the four best players in all of basketball. Unless you are getting one of the other three guys (Dwight, Durant, LeBron), Wade should be untouchable.

Also, I'd argue Who is letting Wade coast on his reputation and second championship ring. Wade’s PPP this season was 0.96 good for 96th best in the league, his defense is declining, and he's getting to the line far less (6.1 FTA per game is the worst mark of his career since his rookie year), his 4.8 OWS ranks him 21st in the league, his 2.9 DWS ranks 27th, he's a below average three point shooter (.268 3PT%). His 7.7 WS is the third lowest mark of his career. Don't get me wrong Wade is a top tier player, but that tier is top 15 not top 4. In fact, I'd be curious to know if Wade ranked top 4 by any measure last season.

Yeah, I don't think Wade is a top 4 player anymore.  I read Who's rebuttal, and I agree that Wade's statistics have dropped off in large part because of playing with Lebron, but I think that from what I've seen with my eyes he has declined in almost all aspects of his game lately and that decline is going to continue as he loses athleticism with age and hasn't been improving his jumper.  I put Wade on Kobe's level right now and would absolutely choose CP or a healthy Rose over him for one season.

Regarding IP's original question of the 3 being untouchable, I really like the potential of a Wade-Pierce duo.  The two of them should be able to hold down the wings on defense.  Pierce's shooting complements Wade's game well.  But Pierce can also carry a good chunk of the offensive load and will be able to do so more effectively/efficiently without having to do so as frequently as he currently does and also without the opponent's best wing defender on him anymore.  I love the pairing and I'd keep the two of them together.

I think that Bosh should not be considered untouchable.  I think that Wade and Pierce should both be considered almost untouchable b/c of their fit (unless you want to keep Lin and/or can get a top 7 player back for Wade).  Some trades I think I'd consider are like Lin + Bosh for Rondo or Lin + Wade for CP/Parker + a very good SG.

[indeedproceed]

Well, kind of a moot point now:

Bulls:

Jrue Holiday/Jarret Jack
Dwyane Wade
Paul Pierce
Chris Bosh/Thad Young
Emeka Okafor/Brendan Haywood

[Roy H.]

Well, kind of a moot point now:

Bulls:

Jrue Holiday/Jarret Jack
Dwyane Wade
Paul Pierce
Chris Bosh/Thad Young
Emeka Okafor/Brendan Haywood

A top four team in the league.  The concern is you've got a lot of guys coming off poor years or injuries.  It's a lot to argue that everyone is going to come back fully healthy *and* is going to improve on a down season.