Who has the best chance to be an allstar some day

[Donoghus]

Bradley

[manl_lui]

call me crazy, but I see Melo being another Roy Hibbert. Especially under KG and the potential he has. I see him as a future all star.

[crimson_stallion]

I say Green.

If you look at his past production he has averaged 15 PPG (per 36 minutes adjusted) every season in the league, yet he's never ben a #1 scoring option.  I

In OKC he was #3 behing Durant and Westbrook, plus a similar player to Durant which forced him to play out of position at PF. 

In Boston he was about a #5 option behind Pierce, Allen, Garnett, Rondo and Davis, and also playing on a team he wasn't yet familiar with.

If you look at his game / stats he has no real weakness.  He shoots a good percentage from pretty much every position on  floor, he's a decent (if not fantastic) rebounder, he's got a nice assist ratio, and he has one of the lower turnover ratios in the league.  He has the length, strength and athleticism to be an exceptional defender at the wing position if he listens to his fellow Celtics veterans, and aside from the heart issue he's had no history on injuries.

I think this is the kind of guy who can be a Pierce/Iguodala /deng type player, and all of those guys have been all stars in their career.

[bbd24]

call me crazy, but I see Melo being another Roy Hibbert. Especially under KG and the potential he has. I see him as a future all star.

Not crazy at all.  The potential is downright absurd considering his athletic ability at 7' and the fact he hasn't been playing the game all too long.

He's got me curious 3-4 years down the road.  Pretty good value pick by Ainge.  If the rumors are true about his work ethic, he could be a real steal sooner rather than later.

[saltlover]

call me crazy, but I see Melo being another Roy Hibbert. Especially under KG and the potential he has. I see him as a future all star.

Not crazy at all.  The potential is downright absurd considering his athletic ability at 7' and the fact he hasn't been playing the game all too long.

He's got me curious 3-4 years down the road.  Pretty good value pick by Ainge.  If the rumors are true about his work ethic, he could be a real steal sooner rather than later.

Melo was a fine pick, but at the same age as Melo (6 months younger even,) Hibbert had graduated college, been named Big East Player of the Year, 2nd Team All-American, and was a lottery pick in a solid draft class.  He started for half of his rookie year, and was a legitimate rotation player.  Melo is way further behind the development curve than Hibbert, is a couple inches shorter (because Hibbert is that tall) and just isn't going to get to Hibbert's levels.  That doesn't mean he won't be a useful NBA center, but I'll be happy if in two years Melo has reached the ability of rookie Hibbert.

[danglertx]

I'd agree that Melo is behind Hibbert but Hibbert is so... stiff?  He doesn't have the speed or passing that Melo has right now.  I could see Melo jumping him in overall ability down the road but I could also see Melo being Hollins down the road.

Raw but full of potential.

[pearljammer10]

If Pierce retires when his contract is up and Green is still around, then I would say Green would have the best shot... I honestly dont think any of those three will be in an all star game in their career.

[wahz]

I pick Bradley too. I think Green is ok and he is going to look like a gazelle running with rajon but I just don't see enough production coming. Sullinger could and I like him but he is going to have to do it as a superior version of Baby Davis. If he was as athletic as Barkley he would have been the first pick in the draft but its a fantasy. It would be nice if he went nuts with whoever the best personal trainer in the world is though.

Bradley already is an elite defender and it looks like he can shoot and he can slash. He has it all its just that he is small for his position or at least not big

[BASS_THUMPER]

i liked bradley from day one
i said he was important here
but alot of CB's didnt think so
"trade him".."oh no..doc starting him again..?"
people gave rondo props after he kept playin with that jacked up arm
bradley deserves the same if not more love
avery had to pop his shoulder back in so many time

wish love was shown from jump street

[mqtcelticsfan]

As unlikely as it is for any of them to be all-stars, I'd go with Bradley as well. He's the only elite athlete of the bunch, and he plays SG, which is a weak position.

[bfrombleacher]

But realistically, more likely none of them.  All-Star is a pretty tall mountain to climb.

Seems like the consensus. But we're not talking perennial all star appearances.

Mo Williams made it once.

Also remember, starters are voted in by fans. Reserves by coaches.

They need one good stretch of games for that to happen and I see a decent chance (note I did not say a big one) of any of them being voted in. They're all potentially very good players.

Also, I agree with the Fab Melo comment. And I hope he does kill the buzz of all the detractors.

[Galeto]

I'd say none.  I don't think any of them have feature ability, although I really like what Bradley and potentially Sullinger can bring.

If Green is force fed to the point that he can average 20-22, it's still not going to make a difference if he remains so underwhelming in every other category.  That's what I don't understand about him.  How does a guy who rates as a well below-average rebounder, a poor passer and a poor long-range shooter gain the reputation for versatility?  Because he's tall and physically fits in as a PF and SF?  It's bewildering.  At any rate, he was a good all-around player in the Princeton system at Georgetown.  Maybe he can tap into that.

Weird thing about the Princeton Offense: Caron Butler and Green were very good playmakers in it yet have been black holes outside of it.  There should be no reason why the passing ability utilized in that system can't translate to other offenses yet that's what's happened.  Ainge referred to Green as a good passer but his career assist average is 1.6 and his assist% is 7.6, which is much worse than the 12.8 of Corey Maggette who symbolizes selfish basketball.

[crimson_stallion]

If Green is force fed to the point that he can average 20-22, it's still not going to make a difference if he remains so underwhelming in every other category.  That's what I don't understand about him.  How does a guy who rates as a well below-average rebounder, a poor passer and a poor long-range shooter gain the reputation for versatility?  Because he's tall and physically fits in as a PF and SF?  It's bewildering.

If you look at his stats while playing in Boston his numbers really weren't that bad.

His assist ratio of 7.5% isn't fantastic, but he offsets that with an exceptionally low turnover ratio (8.7) that's one of the best in the league at the SF position.  His ASS:TO ratio of 1:1 means that even if his passing isn't an asset, it's also not a liability. For a team that's traditionally struggled with turnovers, I think it's very valuable to have another solid guy out there who doesn't make mistakes.

His rebounding numbers also aren't bad.  You have to consider that even if he spent a good amount of time at PF, he's really more a natural SF.  By SF standards his rebouding rate of 8.9% is pretty good - it's up there with what Iggy (8.1%) and Pierce (9.1%) averaged last season, and both of those guys are considered very good rebounders at the SF position.

Also there is no evidence to back this idea that Green is a poor shooter.  In the 2010-2011 season for Boston he shot 40% from midrange, 44% on corner threes and 66% from inside the restricted area.  Compared with his season's roster those percentages would rank him:

* 7th in 'mid range' percentage
* 3rd in 'corner three' percentage
* 1st in 'Restricted Area' percentage

That suggests he is decent from midrange, excellent on corner threes and elite from inside - while he's also a good free throw shooter (81%). 

The only weak scoring areas for Green were:
* In the paint, outside Restricted Area - 34%
* Above the break three - 25%

Those last numbers may look bad, but they are acually right on par with what Pietus averaged from those areas - and no one ever really refers to Pietrus as a 'poor long range shooter'.

The problem is that 35% of his shot attempts came from those two bad areas, which brings down his overall percentages and makes him look like a much worse shooter then he actually is.

In fact if you take just the 'above the break three' out of the equation Green would have shot 49% overall and 44% from three, which is exceptional. 

He doesn't need to improve his shooting, he just needs to improve his shot selection. With more familiarity with the Boston system and with Doc/Pierce/Kg taking him under their wing, I'm confident that will happen.

The important things for me are his intangibles.  He's young, he's athletic, he doesn't make mistakes (turnover wise) and he seems to have the right kind of attitude as well as a desire to learn.  Those characteristics make him a low risk / high potential guy.

[crimson_stallion]

Actually, for those who consider Jeff Green a scrub who could never be an all star, lets compare his stats to Kevin Love.

First the shooting stats:

Shot area | Love | Green
--------------------------
Rest Area | 59%  | 66%
In Paint  | 35%  | 34%
Midrange  | 37%  | 40%
Corner 3  | 31%  | 44%
Ab Break 3| 38%  | 25%
Eff FG%   | 49.7%| 48.8%
TS %      | 56.8%| 53.8%

Now look at the rest of their stats:

Statistic | Love | Green
--------------------------
OffRtg    | 104.0|105.9
DefRtg    | 103.7|104.7
NetRtg    | 0.3  | 1.3
TOT REB % | 19.1%| 8.9%
ASTRatio  | 7.4  | 7.5%
TORatio   | 8.53 | 8.73
FTM/36Min | 6.4  | 2.9
USG%      | 28.5%| 21.6%

Now Kevin Love was an All-Star last season, and I can guarantee you he'll be a shoe in for it next season too. Taking a look at the numbers above, other then the obvious (rebounding and getting to the line) what does Love do better then Green?

* Green has a slightly better Net Rating

* Assist and turnover ratios are for all intents and purposes identical.

* Green is 13 percentage points better on corner threes, Love is 13 percentage points better on above break threes, so that's a wash. 

* From midrange Green is superior.

* In the paint (overall, inside + outside the restricted area combined) Green is far superior.

Consider that Love averaged 26 PPG, and he averaged 3.5 extra free thows made per 36 minute then Green did - that's obviously equates to 3.5 PPG from those extra FT attempts.

Now if you discount the 3.5 PPG discrepancy from FT attempts, Green otherwise is clearly every bit as capable a scorer as Love is.  Based on all these numbers there is no reason why Green couldn't average around ~22PPG if he were the #1 scorering option on an average team.

If he's averaging 22 PPG, 6 RPG and 2 APG as a SF and gains solid defensive skills from his time in Boston, then that is All-Star talent level.  Two or three years down the track, who knows?

[CelticG1]

But realistically, more likely none of them.  All-Star is a pretty tall mountain to climb.

Seems like the consensus. But we're not talking perennial all star appearances.

Mo Williams made it once.

Also remember, starters are voted in by fans. Reserves by coaches.

They need one good stretch of games for that to happen and I see a decent chance (note I did not say a big one) of any of them being voted in. They're all potentially very good players.

Also, I agree with the Fab Melo comment. And I hope he does kill the buzz of all the detractors.

Yeah Jameer freaking Nelson played well for 2 months and he was an allstar