So, back to the original question: how much does Christmas' contract count against the apron, and does the partial guarantee affect that?
All depends on whether or not any or all of his contract is guaranteed. If any amount is guaranteed, the guaranteed amount will count against our overall salary.
My suspiscion is he getting a small amount guaranteed, but probably no more than 200K.
I'm not really too bothered by it though, because I think our overall salary is going to be lower than most expect. I've seen estimates as high as 71m for our current roster (including Green who has not yet officially signed). I've got them pegged a little lower though.
Ultimately, I think the FA's we signed this off-season will be getting standard contracts with full raises. I've got KG @10.6m, Green @8.1m, Bass @6.2m, Terry @5m, Lee @5m, Sullinger @1.3m, Melo @1.3m, Wilcox @.8m, Collins @.8m & Joseph @.8m. Not including Christmas, I've got a total of approx 69.3m. Say, we pay him 200K, and later cut him, that would only bring the total to 69.5m. (
All of the numbers I've listed still allow the players to reach their reported full values)
All of this is really just me guessing though. My logic is that it would seem that the C's would be best served keeping this year's total salary as low as possible to keep a little flexibility for later in the season. There really is no point worrying about the next 3 years, because I just don't see it as likely we'll have access to the full MLE anyway.