Who will be better (2012-2013 season) : Ray or Lee?

[Fafnir]

Courtney Lee's defense is probably a bit overrated. 

For comparison, Ray allowed 0.75 points per possession, 48th in the league.  Lee?  0.88 PPP, good for 280th.  It's not a perfect method to evaluate defense, but 280th in the NBA is not the sign of a lockdown defender.

Honestly the fact that Ray rated better than LBJ/Durant in most synergy numbers gives me pause about using them for defense on an individual basis.

[Sketch5]

Courtney Lee's defense is probably a bit overrated. 

For comparison, Ray allowed 0.75 points per possession, 48th in the league.  Lee?  0.88 PPP, good for 280th.  It's not a perfect method to evaluate defense, but 280th in the NBA is not the sign of a lockdown defender.

I think Ray's numbers are a result from the product of the teams defense. Lets see what Lee's numbers are after next season.

[Fafnir]

How did Dooling/Peaches rate up compared to Ray?

[Lechoke Lames]

I think the poll should have been; Who's better at this point of their career?

I think Ray is the better player, but right now Lee is.  Who knows what Lee will be at the end of his career?  

I wouldn't mind seeing a comparison of the players when Ray was at this same stage as Courtney in his career.  

Be interesting....

Here are the 36 min averages of both players through their first 4 seasons (based on basketball-reference.com of course):

Rk      Player   FG%  3P%  FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS  PER
1    Ray Allen  .441 .388 .873 1.2 3.2 4.4 3.6 1.2 0.2 2.4 2.6 18.2  17.5
2 Courtney Lee  .439 .386 .832 0.7 3.0 3.7 1.8 1.4 0.3 1.3 2.3 13.2  12.2

Ray is clearly better, as expected.

If you compare last season, the difference is already smaller:

Rk      Player   FG%  3P%  FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS  PER
1    Ray Allen  .458 .453 .915 0.3 2.9 3.3 2.5 1.1 0.2 1.6 1.9 15.1  14.8
2 Courtney Lee  .433 .401 .826 0.5 2.7 3.3 1.8 1.4 0.5 1.3 2.2 13.5  12.6

Ray's playoffs performance was even worse, due to the injury:

Rk      Player  Age  FG%  3P%  FT% TRB AST PTS
     Ray Allen  36  .395 .304 .711 4.3 1.1 11.3

At this stage I would prefer Lee. I expect that two years from now it won't even be be close, but only because of Ray's projected decline due to injuries. In contrast, Reggie Miller at age 39 had a similar overall season to that of Ray Allen this year (age 36, stats above mostly prior to the injury), and Miller actually had a better playoff performance:

Rk      Player  Age  FG%  3P%  FT% TRB AST PTS
 Reggie Miller  39  .434 .318 .941 3.4 1.6 16.1

Without Ray's injury I would say the Heat made a good deal, with it, I'm not so sure. I don't expect Ray to finish his career as smoothly as Reggie Miller.

[Kuberski1]

Ray.   While he's at the end of his career, you're talking a multi-year all star and future HOF guy vs. a solid rotation guy.

But, getting Lee was about as good as we could have hoped for: shoots the 3 at about 40%, runs the floor well, apparent above average defender.....and wants to be here.  I'm very happy with the pick-up.

[cman88]

Ray.   While he's at the end of his career, you're talking a multi-year all star and future HOF guy vs. a solid rotation guy.

But, getting Lee was about as good as we could have hoped for: shoots the 3 at about 40%, runs the floor well, apparent above average defender.....and wants to be here.  I'm very happy with the pick-up.

ray at this point in his career is a solid rotation guy..forget the name and the past, but the past few years due to his declining skill-set that is what he has become..and its partially why he left, he couldnt handle changing his role due to his declining skills.

[Crushmaster]

Interesting topic. I would say the wrong question though. Who will have a bigger effect on his team's success in 2012-2013 might be better question for two guys who are playing supporting roles. By that criteria, I'd say Ray by a landslide. What Ray does on offense (knock-down shooting, spacing, occupying a defensive player who can't double off him) will be more beneficial on Miami because they run more (Ray is a deadly 3-point shooter in transition) and because their top two players are penetrators who demand double-teams. Teams are going to have to decide whether to double off Ray or not in a way they didn't have to when he was on the Celtics (which is why they rarely did). Miami can design sets depending on either eventuality. The bottom line is either Lebron and Wade will have an easier time when teams decline to double off of Ray, or Ray will get open looks, more than he would have for the Celtics, when they do. The depressing truth is that Ray is a more valuable player on Miami then Lee or Ray are on the Celtics. It makes one wonder if Danny's push to sign Ray would have even happened if Ray's likely destination had been out West, rather than our main obstacle in the East.

[Mattybriand]

Jason Terry/C-Lee>Ray Allen

[Django]

Ray.

Although Terry > Both