Assuming that the Celtics can agree on a contract with Lee, it will probably be $4-5.5 mil. Houston will have to take back some salary, and Moore, Williams, and JJJ combined won't be enough. So someone like Dooling has to come into play, just to make salaries work.
I bet Houston either gets JJJ or a pick, but not both. I also have little problem with trading next year's first for someone, be it Lee or another player. The C's already have a lot of roster spots taken up for next year -- the guaranteed contract to a first-rounder might actually get in the way:
Assuming we get Lee, the 2013 lineup looks something like this:
Rondo/JET
Lee/AB (assuming we pick up his option, which would be a shock if we didn't)
PP/Green/Joseph
Bass/Sully
KG/Melo
Plus and option on JJJ and Joseph, maybe someone we sign with the BAE this year, and next year's MLE. And this is assuming that Stiemsma is gone. So that guaranteed contract to next year's first-rounder gets in the way more than anything else, especially considering we currently have three 2nd round picks to boot.
I assume you mean the 2013/2014 roster.
I'd guess we use the BAE on Steisma or Wilcox, which might have a player option for year 2, or even be guaranteed partially or in whole.
That puts the C's at 13 + 3 second round picks.
Which is sort of the reason I'm losing interest in Lee... rotation usually shakes out to have 8 guys playing almost all of the minutes, with three other guys taking the scraps:
160 minutes = 5 starters at 32 MPG
72 minutes = 3 key bench guys at 24 MPG
that's 232 minutes out of 248 minutes, with 16 getting split between the reserves.
This team already has 5 of those guys at guard/wing spots. Lee makes sense if:
- he's on a Posey one year deal and he's a bridge to a healthy AB in 2013/4
- he can play SF (I don't think he can) AND you expect to see lots of Green at PF (ugh)
- you expect JET to be one of those reserves (you just used the full MLE on 10-15 MPG game guy !?!?!?!)
The positive spin would be:
- He's needed in 2012/3 because you cannot count on AB, and AB is penciled in as the guard reserve guy (like TA in 2007/8)
- You expect by 2014/5 that JET will be in decline and have reduced minutes as a third guy
- You'll just deal with the extra guard in 2013/4
I can see that, just not sure that's enough to use your last bullet for getting talent on.
In that case, I'd see the long term situation/plan being Rondo and Lee starting, with AB as the combo guard / high energy guy off the bench.