Jeff Green agrees to deal (4 years, $36 million)

[ballin]

Green has never graded out as anything other than a borderline NBA starter. His numbers have been inflated by the fact that he played a lot of minutes per game.

I know that PER is not everyone's favorite stat, but it is OK. It grades the top SFs in the league last year as James, Durant, Anthony, Pierce, Granger, Iggy and Batum in that order. Perfectly sensible.

Green's career PER would have put him at 32nd last year. Here are the 5 guys right above and below him:

27   Kyle Korver
28   Alonzo Gee
29   Terrence Williams
30   Michael Beasley
31   Tayshaun Prince
32   C.J. Miles
33   Linas Kleiza
34   Reggie Williams
35   Grant Hill
36   Donte Greene

Everything about him screams "mediocre." I have no idea why he is getting paid star money.

1.  9 mil a year really isn't star money.

2.  You generally have to pay more for mediocre than flat out bad.

3.  You usually have to overpay when you don't have any other options.  There is no one even close to Green's level as a player that Boston could possibly bring in.

Mike

Well, OK, let's look at the salaries of the guys on that list:
Korver $5 million
Gee $884,000
Williams $194,000
Beasley $6.2 million
Prince $6.2 million
Miles $3.7 million
Kleiza $4.6 million
Williams $2.5 million
Hill $6.5 million
Green $1.7 million

That's an average of $3.75 million, and no other player is within $2.5 million of Green's salary.

Green is now far overpaid for his performance.

This, times a thousand.

I'd also like to add that if you were to use other advanced stats, they are even less flattering to Green than PER is.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I don't think Green is being given a fair shake given these realities.

Sure he is, if you're given 30+ MPG for multiple years you've had your opportunities.

Also consider that he played the exact same meh basketball for us in a backup role. Stats were very consistent with his per minute averages.

That's just the player he is.

Other than when he played for us, he didn't look comfortable through learning the new system, yet posted career high in FG% with  48.5%, that's great.

His perimeter shooting went down, but he was [dang] automatic from the corner with us. I hope they use him more there.

I think he'll be good for us. I don't expect him to fulfill his 9 million a year potential, but I think he'll be a better pick-up for us than other alternatives with our limited funds.

Also, he's not a turnover machine which is nice.

[Celts Fan 92]

rofl @ the Jeff Green hate I swear on everything I neva heard of PER nd points per 36 minutes til i got on dis site. yall really would take alonzo Gee ova Jeff green? someone who averages 16ppg as a 3rd option his entire career? word? lol he's gonna prove so many heads wrong

[Boris Badenov]

rofl @ the Jeff Green hate I swear on everything I neva heard of PER nd points per 36 minutes til i got on dis site.

You're welcome. 

I could probably go on youtube and find one of those highlight videos that make Gee look like Jordan. Would that convince you?

But seriously, and for the record, I never said that I'd take Gee over Green. My point was that Gee costs $800,000 and gives you pretty similar numbers, and we just shelled out $9 million per year for Green.

I hope he proves the doubters wrong. But you can look at any way of measuring performance you want to, and Green looks like a borderline starter. The problem is that he's being paid like a borderline All-Star.

I could even justify overpaying him because we have no cap room to sign anyone else, but then the contract shouldn't have been that long.

[ScottHow]

I think Green getting consistent minutes with Rondo will really help him have a break out year. Once Rondo learns where Green wants it I think those two will have great chemistry.

He has never played a full season with someone who can get him easy looks. 

[Prof. Clutch]

I think Green getting consistent minutes with Rondo will really help him have a break out year. Once Rondo learns where Green wants it I think those two will have great chemistry.

He has never played a full season with someone who can get him easy looks. 

I agree.  Rondo's transition game and passing will help Green immensely.  Green's also spent quite a bit of time with the team and on the sidelines for most of the last season and will now have a full pre-season to work with the team and learn their schemes.  No condensed season that limits practice time and now only 3 players over the age of 34 to worry about keeping really fresh so Doc doesn't have to forgo practice.  I think Green will benefit greatly from all of this.

[ausbacker]

It appears that the Celtics are paying for projected future performance not past performance. When people accept this it becomes easier to swallow.

[Neurotic Guy]

Green is overpayed.



Positive side, he could be useful in terms of trading.



Let say by midseason, Howard wants to come here.  (long shot but just go with me)


Green and a nine million contract suddenly comes in handy. 

While it's not a great idea to overpay in order to have salary match potential for the future, it is certainly a potential silver lining.   Without Theo Ratliff -- yes Theo Ratliff -- the C's could not have made the deal for KG.  If JG underperforms for the price, the contract is not an albatross contract and does provide most of the salary needed to land a big fish in a trade.  If the youth (and there is plenty now) become valued assetts, the C's will be in position to land a top player depending upon the circumstances that open up over the next few years.   Remember, it was Al Jefferson and all the little chips (Gomes, Gerald, Telfair) along with Ratliff's contract that allowed us to swing for the fences with KG. 

 And now that I think about it, it was Wally Szerbiak's contract along with a couple chips (in fact, the pick that turned out to be JG) that allowed Ray Allen to come here.

The reality of the NBA salary structure makes it really much harder to build a contender through free agency (that is, getting a blue-chip player by going way under the cap) than through trades.   Green and Bass give them good mid-range salaries and decent players to go in trades when the time comes.

[gar]

4 yrs 36 mil is overpaying by any standard. I certainly hope this is inclusive of performance thresholds and a team option on the final year. Otherwise this is a huge gamble.

[Cman]

4 yrs 36 mil is overpaying by any standard. I certainly hope this is inclusive of performance thresholds and a team option on the final year. Otherwise this is a huge gamble.

I have no inside knowledge on this, but I guarantee you there are escape clauses written into the contract for the Celtics to void the contract if a heart related issue arises.

[Celtics18]

Green is overpayed.



Positive side, he could be useful in terms of trading.



Let say by midseason, Howard wants to come here.  (long shot but just go with me)


Green and a nine million contract suddenly comes in handy. 

While it's not a great idea to overpay in order to have salary match potential for the future, it is certainly a potential silver lining.   Without Theo Ratliff -- yes Theo Ratliff -- the C's could not have made the deal for KG.  If JG underperforms for the price, the contract is not an albatross contract and does provide most of the salary needed to land a big fish in a trade.  If the youth (and there is plenty now) become valued assetts, the C's will be in position to land a top player depending upon the circumstances that open up over the next few years.   Remember, it was Al Jefferson and all the little chips (Gomes, Gerald, Telfair) along with Ratliff's contract that allowed us to swing for the fences with KG. 

 And now that I think about it, it was Wally Szerbiak's contract along with a couple chips (in fact, the pick that turned out to be JG) that allowed Ray Allen to come here.

The reality of the NBA salary structure makes it really much harder to build a contender through free agency (that is, getting a blue-chip player by going way under the cap) than through trades.   Green and Bass give them good mid-range salaries and decent players to go in trades when the time comes.

Nice.  I believe you nailed it.