DA's plan is starting to come into focus

[mctyson]

I think Terry is wishful thinking because he will probably stay in Dallas, and also probably wants multiple years.

I think we use our vet mins on Pietrus and Wilcox.  I can't see other teams offering them more than that.

I'd rather use the MLE on a 4/5 that will command less than $5M or I would like to try and throw the whole thing at a player like Brandon Rush who is still young and can fit into our long term plans.

I think the biggest mistake Danny made over the past few seasons was offering J.O. $6M per, when it was clear he was washed up.  You bring in guys like that for the vet min.  Wilcox was a similar mistake last year but now is worth it at the min, if he wants more than that you say bye-bye.

We should use our exceptions to get the younger, athletic guys we could not get through cap space spending, and use our vet mins to round out the bench.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

and to answer your question kevin,blow up the team

well thank goodness you are not the GM of this ball club now right? Would you have blown it up after 09? 10? 11? Would your team have come as close as this team did to getting a 3rd trip to the finals in 5 years like they did in 12?? 

[MBunge]

What plan.His plan is to get old and have us pounced out of the second round.

Anybody who questions Danny should just take a look at Dallas.  They let Tyson Chandler leave and got nothing in return, essentially giving up a chance to repeat as NBA champs before the season ever started, all to open up cap space for this offseason.  Now, if both DWill and DHoward go to the Nets, they've got Dirk Nowitski, 18 million dollars a year tied up in Shawn Marion and Brendan Haywood for the next two seasons and nothing.  That's a team that's could spend the rest of Dirk's career strugging to make the playoffs because they went all in on getting a big free agent.  Danny at least has put together some assets heading into the future.

Mike

[Jon]

Minor point. 

Pietrus is almost definitely gone if Green and Ray come back.  It's wishful thinking to believe he'd come back for the minimum again to begin with, but it's definitely not going to happen if Ray and Green come back.  With them back, there's literally be zero minutes for Pietrus at the 2/3 spots between Ray/Bradley/Pierce/Green.  It's going to be hard enough finding minutes for the 4 of them. 

[Neurotic Guy]

Great Post Sinbad.  Helps tons to understand the nuances of under the cap, over the cap and at the luxury threshold.  Thanks!  TP!

[CoachBo]

It's really easy to wax about blowing up the team, creating cap room and considering the Celtics a major player for the free agent du jour.

It's a lot more complicated to avoid destroying the team's ability to compete for a decade and polluting the tradition with putrid basketball like the 2007 collection of garbage we put on the floor.

[snively]

If i did the calculations right this is what I think Danny's Option A is:

Players under contract

KG 11M
Pierce 16.8M
Bradley 1.6M
Rondo 11M
Melo 1.045M
Sullinger 1.089M
JJJ 1.1M
Total 46.234M

Estimated Salary Cap 58M
Luxury Tax Apron 74M

* We only can sign other teams free agents up to the 58M salary cap.
* If we have cap space we cannot use the 5M MLE
* We can go over the cap with our Bird rights free agents (Ray, Bass, Green) but Danny needs to have the minimum number of players including exceptions (13) signed below 69M so he has the Full Mid Level Exception (5M) to use (69M + 5M MLE = 74 luxury tax.
* He can also get the 1.96M bi annual exception so he needs to have a minimum of 11 players under 67M to use both exceptions (67M + 5M MLE + 1.96 bi annual exception = 73.96M total for 13 players) This keeps him under the luxury tax.

Danny said he wants to re-sign Ray, Bass, and Green. I believe he will do so if he can get the total payroll (before exceptions) under 65.71M (74 luxury tax - 5M MLE - 1.96M bi annual -1.33 minimum contract = 65.71M) He needs subtract 1.33M because signing Ray, Bass, Green and the two exceptions give him a total of only 12 players and he needs 13 under contract.

So 65.71M - 46.234M current payroll = 19.476 to spend on our own free agents. 19.476 / 3 players = 6.492M each for Ray, Bass, and Green. This makes sense because Danny offered Ray 6M/yr and I believe that will be his offer to both Green and Bass as well. He has a little wiggle room for example he could offer Green and Bass 6M each and up Ray to 7.476M which will total 19.476M. Or he can keep all 3 at 6M and offer Stiemsma up to 2.776M. This is why Stiemsma will be taken care of last.

If he is able to sign those three players to a combined 19.476M then he will be able to use both the MLE and the bi-annual on two other free agents from either other teams or our own.

The MLE could then be used on Terry and the bi-annual on Camby (wishful thinking) and he needs to sign another player to reach the minimum number of players under contract.

To sum it all up:

KG 11M
Pierce 16.8M
Bradley 1.6M
Rondo 11M
Melo 1.045M
Sullinger 1.089M
JJJ 1.1M
Ray 6M
Green 6M
Bass 6M
Stiemsma 2M
Terry 5M (MLE)
Camby 1.96M (Bi Annual exception)
Free agent 1.3M (minimum contract)Pietrus?
Free agent 1.3M (minimum contract)

Total: 15 players at 73.194M

During this past week we've heard 1) Danny & Doc say they want to re-sign Ray, Green, Bass, and eventually Stiemsma 2)Doc said he thinks they can get both Ray and Terry 3)Celtics are on Camby's short list and that he wants a starting posistion 4)Danny wants to avoid the luxury tax so they can use the full MLE.

This plan accomplishes all of that.

My apologies for the long confusing post. I just started rambling. Hope this makes sense and of course I may be totally wrong on the numbers or rules.

I think we can scratch Camby off the list for the BAE.  He'll get a much better offer. 

[apc]

I think Camby will go to the Heat if they dont get Ray:
Chris Tomasson: Source on anyone who thinks Heat can get Allen for $3M & Camby for minimum: "(Camby) would only be interested in Miami for the $3 million.'' Twitter

if not Camby, how much can we offer Krstic?

[CelticSooner]

Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm under the assumption if Ray bolts the C's will not be able to afford signing both another guard and big man? It's pretty much Bass and MLE for a guard?

[snively]

I think Camby will go to the Heat if they dont get Ray:
Chris Tomasson: Source on anyone who thinks Heat can get Allen for $3M & Camby for minimum: "(Camby) would only be interested in Miami for the $3 million.'' Twitter

if not Camby, how much can we offer Krstic?

I think you misread that.  It's saying that Camby would need at least the $3 mil (not the minimum) to sign in Miami, not that Miami is the only team he'd sign with for $3 mil.

[KGs Knee]

TP to the OP. (I'll have to owe it to you though-can't give them out from my phone).

I do have to point out a few minor inaccuracies though.

Contracts you listed for Sully and Melo are only scale value.  Rookies are ALWAYS signed to 120%, so their actual values would be $1.307m & 1.254m.  That's a difference of $.427m.

The $2m you have earmarked for Stiemsma is not possible.  To offer him anything over the QO ($1.054m), we would have to dip into our MLE to do so.  So we can sign Stiemsma to a $2m contract AND have full use of the MLE.

Anyways, good job.  It's nice to see there are fellow bloggers out there who understand all the ramifications of the cap.  I actually posted this info almost word for word over the weekend n the front page (sorry not trying to steal your thunder).

Again, good job!

[KGs Knee]

^ meant CAN'T sign Stiemsma for $2m and use full MLE.

[theswitch]

Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm under the assumption if Ray bolts the C's will not be able to afford signing both another guard and big man? It's pretty much Bass and MLE for a guard?

You could sign Green, Bass and Nenad still, and then you'd have the MLE and the BAE left.

[More Banners]

Great work with the numbers to the OP.

I don't think I bother with Camby; I do go for Wilcox and Krystic though.  I don't push too hard for Ray, saving his money for those guys instead.  I use the BAE on Steimsma, long term if he'll take it.

Terry and Green will shore up the wing next to Bradley and Pierce.  Quisy is the perfect 5th wing for the minimum.

Rondo/Moore
Bradley/Terry/Quisy
Pierce/Green
KG/Wilcox/Sullinger/JJJ
Krystic/Steimsma/Melo

[greg_kite]

Awesome job on this post.

I think Green will be looking for more like 8-10 mil and Bass 6-8 mil.  If we keep Ray at 6 we probably won't have any room for the midlevel.  Maybe just enough to get Steamsma his 2 mil.  I think Steam will probably get 3 mil somewhere though.  Centers are always overpaid.

But the good thing is that the C's were tied going into the 4 quarter against the NBA champs without Jeff Green, Avery Bradley and with Ray and Paul limping.

Bring back the core and getting healthier might be good enough.