Twolves are about to blow their cap on Nic Batum...

[perks-a-beast]

i agree that its very risky for the TWolves but i think it'll turn out that Batum is worth the money. He's only 23, has already impressed offensively and defensively and is only going to get better with Rubio getting him open shots.

Rubio/ Barea
Budinger/ Ellington
Batum/ Williams
Love/ Williams
Pekovic/ Darko

With that team the Wolves finally get themselves back in the playoffs.

Maybe the Celts could take Wes Johnson off their hands for next to nothing? They really have no use for him if Batum is signed.

[saltlover]

Gallinari got 42M/4.

They are both 23 and Gallo had better numbers on a better team.

Batum is a nice 3rd option and still has upside but 50M/4 is crazy.

Something like 36M/4 seems fair IMO.

But Gallinari wasn't a free agent.  Free agents almost always get paid more.  It's how it works.  You can't compare a free agent contract to a non-free agent contract and say "look, that free agent got paid too much."  They go to the highest bidder, more often than not.  Of course they're going to get paid more, because teams try to figure out what other teams are offering, and try to offer more, so long as it fits in their budgets.

Now, I'm not saying Batum at that rumored offer isn't a bad deal.  I don't think I've seen a Blazers game in a couple of years, so I have no idea who this guy is other than someone I remember people on this board wishing the Celtics would draft a few year ago.  But in general, the "XX-YY dollars for Z free agent is insane" meme that floats around this board often seems a bit naive.  The salary cap/contract maximums artificially deflates the salary of the top players and rookie contracts, making the second-tier players seem like they get paid too much.  Certainly there are some third-tier players who get max deals, and yes, those are foolish, and maybe Batum is a third-tier guy.  But people just yesterday were decrying the amount paid to KG, and in virtually every FA thread you find on this board, you see this line of thought.

[chambers]

Just amazing. Just shows you how poor the FA market really is and how over valued some of these younger guys will be this off season.
This actually worries me because it makes me wonder how much teams will be willing to pay Jeff Green.
Hopefully Jeff gives us at least a season for somewhat sticking by him through the hard times.
Even with the health comeback and buddy buddy connection we could be looking at 8-9 million for Green- which might be too much I think.

[tyrone biggums]

The Minnesota Timberwolves will meet with small forward Nicolas Batum on Sunday, and according to Chris Haynes of CSN Northwest, are mulling on offer of $45-50 million over four years for the Frenchman. Batum is a restricted free agent, meaning that the Portland Trail Blazers will have the opportunity to match any contract offer sheet that Batum signs.

Link

Seriously?  $12.5 million per season for Batum?  He's a nice complementary player, but this seems crazy to me.  I know the Twolves have to pay a premium to get guys to play in Minnesota, but Batum is a third option; you can't pay him like a star if you hope to fill out the rest of your roster with good talent.

If the T-Wolves can get Gasol then I don't see too many things wrong with this, you figure he's a good 3rd scoring option and the Blazers would probably match anything up to 8 million. If you project him as a star (I don't but they may) he's not a bad player to have grow with Love and Rubio. Its an overpay but not that bad of a move. They have to show Love that they want to win to avoid a DH12 situation down the road.

Only problem is, if Indiana matches Hibbert, the Blazers are dumb enough to match this. Batum is a better fit with a PG like Rubio in Minnesota.

[Donoghus]

Idiotic move on Minnesota's part.  That's ridiculous money.

[TripleOT]

Why is everyone overreacting when a team offers a RFA a deal that's inflated by 20-30%? That's how the market works in the NBA. 

Batum has great size for his position, can shoot the ball and play efficient offense, and is a good defender.  He's worth around $8-9m a year. Inflate it a bit because he's a RFA and Minny wants to make it difficult for the Blazers to match. 

Batum could blossom into a 20 ppg scorer with Rubio setting him up.  The Wolves have had the hardest time finding a quality wing.  Kahn is being very aggressive here. If he's ever going to compete with the OKCs of his conference, he needs to be.   

[Donoghus]

Why is everyone overreacting when a team offers a RFA a deal that's inflated by 20-30%? That's how the market works in the NBA. 

Batum has great size for his position, can shoot the ball and play efficient offense, and is a good defender.  He's worth around $8-9m a year. Inflate it a bit because he's a RFA and Minny wants to make it difficult for the Blazers to match. 

Batum could blossom into a 20 ppg scorer with Rubio setting him up.  The Wolves have had the hardest time finding a quality wing.  Kahn is being very aggressive here. If he's ever going to compete with the OKCs of his conference, he needs to be.   

You don't pay $12 million/year for a third banana in the NBA. Kills your cap flexibility.

[Who]

The Minnesota Timberwolves will meet with small forward Nicolas Batum on Sunday, and according to Chris Haynes of CSN Northwest, are mulling on offer of $45-50 million over four years for the Frenchman. Batum is a restricted free agent, meaning that the Portland Trail Blazers will have the opportunity to match any contract offer sheet that Batum signs.

Link

Seriously?  $12.5 million per season for Batum?  He's a nice complementary player, but this seems crazy to me.  I know the Twolves have to pay a premium to get guys to play in Minnesota, but Batum is a third option; you can't pay him like a star if you hope to fill out the rest of your roster with good talent.

If the T-Wolves can get Gasol then I don't see too many things wrong with this, you figure he's a good 3rd scoring option and the Blazers would probably match anything up to 8 million. If you project him as a star (I don't but they may) he's not a bad player to have grow with Love and Rubio. Its an overpay but not that bad of a move. They have to show Love that they want to win to avoid a DH12 situation down the road.

Only problem is, if Indiana matches Hibbert, the Blazers are dumb enough to match this. Batum is a better fit with a PG like Rubio in Minnesota.

Portland  are guaranteed to match anything up to $10-11 million. No question. An Anything at or below that is a lock to be matched.

And I think there is a pretty strong chance they'll go above that threshold.

Minnesota had to offer at least this much ($45-50 million) just to have a chance at stealing Batum away from the Blazers ... and to be honest, I don't think they went far enough above Portland's comfort zone to steal him away.

I would put the chances of this bid being successful at around 15%. Very low likelihood. I thought Minnesota needed to go above $50 million and probably somewhere into the mid-to-high 50s to give themselves a good chance of landing Batum.

[Who]

You don't pay $12 million/year for a third banana in the NBA. Kills your cap flexibility.

I disagree, I think $12 million is fine for a third option.

I just don't know whether Batum can be that. He hasn't proven anything like that yet. So they are paying quite a bit for potential. Risky move.

[Celtics18]

I thought everyone was expecting Nic Batum to get huge bucks this off-season.  That's why we all knew that the chances of making him a Celtic were slim to none.  

[Donoghus]

You don't pay $12 million/year for a third banana in the NBA. Kills your cap flexibility.

I disagree, I think $12 million is fine for a third option.

I just don't know whether Batum can be that. He hasn't proven anything like that yet. So they are paying quite a bit for potential. Risky move.

For an unestablished guy based on potential?  I think it's nuts and the type of move that can cripple teams from a cap standpoint.

[Who]

You don't pay $12 million/year for a third banana in the NBA. Kills your cap flexibility.

I disagree, I think $12 million is fine for a third option.

I just don't know whether Batum can be that. He hasn't proven anything like that yet. So they are paying quite a bit for potential. Risky move.

For an unestablished guy based on potential?  I think it's nuts and the type of move that can cripple teams from a cap standpoint.

I mean just in terms of being a quality third option -- I think $12 million per annum is fine. I have no issue with paying my third best guy on a high quality team $12mil per year. I think that's fine.

Whether Batum can fill that role or not is up for debate.

[TripleOT]

You don't pay $12 million/year for a third banana in the NBA. Kills your cap flexibility.

Miami paid their third option $15m
Dallas' title team had their third and fourth option making slightly south of $11m
The Lakers title teams paid their third option $12m
The 2008 Cs paid their third option $16m

In today's NBA, rosters are payrolls are laden with "Big 3s" across the league.  

[Who]

I'd price Batum's value at around $7 million. He has a lot of untapped potential and I think that is worth another $2-3 million per annum ($9-10 million).

To go above that and offer $12.5 million; a $5.5 million premium for potential is very risky. Only 55% of that contract will be proven ability. 45% for upside. Huge risk.

[Roy H.]

I'd price Batum's value at around $7 million. He has a lot of untapped potential and I think that is worth another $2-3 million per annum ($9-10 million).

To go above that and offer $12.5 million; a $5.5 million premium for potential is very risky. Only 55% of that contract will be proven ability. 45% for upside. Huge risk.

Yep, I think this is very good analysis.