Quincy Miller vs PJ3

[BleedGreen1989]

These guys are both so similiar I can't make up my mind! its ironic as hell they're both teammates but both have a world of talent with serious question marks and very similiar skill sets.

Assuming they are both sitting there at 21, who do you take and why?

[rondohondo]

These guys are both so similiar I can't make up my mind! its ironic as hell they're both teammates but both have a world of talent with serious question marks and very similiar skill sets.

Assuming they are both sitting there at 21, who do you take and why?

PJ3. He has no serious injuries and is really skilled. He just wasn't aggressive enough in College. Can that change in the NBA ? I don't know , but with KG barking in your ear and Rondo getting you the ball the attitude would likely change.

I remember watching him in the NCAA tournament against kentucky and he was playing so passive. Right at the end of the game he demanded the ball 3 times in a row and got 3 scores. I was thinking to myself, how do you not be this aggressive all game?

I think he can really play , but gotta change that passiveness .

[arambone]

Check out these advanced stats. They played almost identically.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/By-the-Numbers-The-2012-Forward-Crop-3991/

Miller has the much better killer instinct and confidence. He would probably become a very good replacement for Paul Pierce as a go-to scorer, playmaker, and last-shot taker.

Jones would be a better role player, as his athleticism and size lets him still contribute when he isn't scoring. He's a better rebounder, probably better on the break, and probably the better defender.

Miller can't contribute as much if he isn't given plenty of chances to score, or if he's in a shooting slump.

Miller wouldn't need Rondo to create his offense, but PJ3 could be pretty good finishing off Rondo's assists.

Draftexpress breaks down those advanced stats above:

-Perry Jones is the highest ranked prospect in this weak forward group, but looks average at best overall from a statistical perspective. His 0.964 overall points per possession ranks right in the middle of the group at 8th overall, despite doing it on the fourth fewest number of possessions per game at 13.6. Jones' efficiency is certainly hurt by getting to the free throw line on just 11.2% of possessions, which ranks second worst in the group, but his 49.0% FG% also ranks in the bottom half.

Jones has a pretty average distribution of possessions across various situations, ranking towards the middle in the percentage of possessions he gets with cuts, jump shots, offensive rebounds, post ups, spot ups, and isolations, and just really hurts himself by having average to below average efficiency in nearly every area.

The biggest bright spot for Jones is his finishing ability on cuts, something that accounts for an average 14.9% of his possessions and is unsurprising given his outstanding physical tools. Jones' 1.254 PPP on cuts ranks 4th of the group and is a somewhat encouraging sign for him projecting forward, as this is likely something he'd be expected to do more off at the next level.

Jones also did stand out by having the highest PPP of any player on transition possessions at 1.571, but did so on just 1.1 possessions per game, second lowest in the group. Baylor played at just the 142nd fastest tempo in the country this year according to kenpom.com, so Jones could see more opportunities here if he's drafted into an up-tempo situation.

The simplest thing Jones could improve on in the short term is cleaning up his inconsistent jumper, as jump shots account for 34.3% of his shot attempts (3.5 shots per game), and he's only hitting for 0.798 PPS, 4th worst in the group.

Jones' problems creating his own shot are more concerning, as despite his intriguing flashes, his efficiency in isolation and post-up situations are very poor. His 0.654 PPP on isolations ranks 4th worst, while his 0.795 PPP on post ups ranks second worst overall, and dead last among NCAA players.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yx9er41b
http://www.draftexpress.com

-Continuing the trend of top prospects not standing out, Quincy Miller also checks in with an unimpressive 0.939 PPP, ranking 9th overall. Miller's efficiency ranks average to below average in nearly every category, giving credence to the notion of him being a jack of all trades, master of none at this very early point in his development.

Miller's 1.022 PPP finishing around the basket ranks dead last among all players in this category, something he could improve on as he fills out his frame and gets stronger in the future. To be fair to him, Miller is probably the closest thing to a pure small forward of every player in this group, whereas most of the rest of them are combo-forwards and undersized fours, so it's somewhat expected for him to underperform in this area. Further, he's one of only two freshmen in the group, and is coming off a serious ACL injury from his senior year in high school, making him even further behind the curve than a normal freshman.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com#ixzz1yxAnXb00
http://www.draftexpress.com


Overall, I'd say that Miller's biggest weakness, defense, may be enough to make PJ3 the better pick, even though he doesn't stand out in any respect as much as Miller stands out with his scoring and killer instinct.

[clover]

Jones is a year older and wasn't coming back from a yearlong injury and layoff.  You've got to factor that in as increasing Miller's prospective reward and risk.

Also, they were playing different positions last year.  Jones I think will have the strength for the 4, Miller the speed for the 3.

[arambone]

"Miller the speed for the 3."

Let's hope so. I don't know how he did defensively in workouts against other small forwards. In college he was a total liability. Hopefully that was only because of his knee, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Either way, I think he could be a relatively unstoppable isolation scorer.
 

[Accension13]

I say take them both... Ideally PJ3 at 21 and miller with the teams second round pick. That will allow them to take Royce White at 22.

However, because miller will not slip that far, I say get him at 22. Team will have to pass on white.

[Lawrence4]

Yeah!!

[Galeto]

I'd absolutely take both.  They don't overlap positionally either as Miller is a 3 and Jones is a 4.

Miller is a much better ballhandler than Jones and has the skillset to be a NBA 3.  If his athleticism returns, he has a lot of work with.  He's a talented post scorer as well.  Jones might have the quickness and athletic ability to be a SF but his handle is loose and out of control.  He dribbles like a big, in front and not at his hip.  The reviews of his workouts have generally dismissed his chances as being a SF.

I really like Jones.  I don't buy the motor issues as much because I never got the feeling that he didn't care.  He doesn't loaf out there and come across as difficult to engage off the court like underachievers like Tim Thomas.  I think people wanted him to be more aggressive offensivly but I think there were at least two issues: 1) Scott Drew is dumb and stood by as his guards fired away and didn't keep Jones or Miller involved 2) Jones has KG's mentality; he likes to look for his teammates before himself.  The lack of touches and unselfishness did a number on his perceived drive.

Professional coaches do a lot better job of getting talented scorers the ball than do certain college coaches.  Jones should fare much better with more touches because he's a really talented in the post and a good shooter from 18 feet.  He'd be a great fit with Rondo.

[Galeto]

I'd absolutely take both.  They don't overlap positionally either as Miller is a 3 and Jones is a 4.

Miller is a much better ballhandler than Jones and has the skillset to be a NBA 3.  If his athleticism returns, he has a lot of work with.  He's a talented post scorer as well.  Jones might have the quickness and athletic ability to be a SF but his handle is loose and out of control.  He dribbles like a big, in front and not at his hip.  The reviews of his workouts have generally dismissed his chances as being a SF.

I really like Jones.  I don't buy the motor issues as much because I never got the feeling that he didn't care.  He doesn't loaf out there or come across as difficult to engage off the court like underachievers like Tim Thomas.  I think people wanted him to be more aggressive offensively but I think there were at least two issues: 1) Scott Drew is dumb and stood by as his guards fired away and didn't keep Jones or Miller involved 2) Jones has KG's mentality; he likes to look for his teammates before himself.  The lack of touches and unselfishness did a number on his perceived drive.

Professional coaches do a lot better job of getting talented scorers the ball than do certain college coaches.  Jones should fare much better with more touches because he's really talented in the post and a good shooter from 18 feet.  He'd be a great fit with Rondo with his speed in the opening court, leaping ability for alley-oops and pick and pop potential.

[Birdman]

PJ3 reminds me of Josh Smith if he puts his head and heart into it.

[chambers]

I actually read a decent article on P Jones on Real GM.
Author contends that Jones' value has unfairly declined.
I actually like his tool set a lot for the NBA.
With more spacing, better passes coming at him and much better structured defensive schemes he could be a complete steal.
I always forget how tall he is. He is 7 feet in shoes and can play the three spot if needed. Same build as Dirk Nowitzki in my eyes- only more athletic ala Kevin Durant.
Here is the article:
http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/221762/The_Misevaluation_Of_Perry_Jones

[Boris Badenov]

Hollinger's draft rater loves Miller, for what that's worth.

He says this:

The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick.

[EDWARDO]

Both these guys terrify me. Neither would be a reach, I just like other guys better. Both feel like potential busts. Quincy Miller... easily distracted, attitude issues, major knee issue. Jones just doesn't play very hard. Passive. Would much rather take the chance on White who likes the game, competes.